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Companies of E3: Sony PlayStation Media Showcase

 

It’s Monday night. E3 proper is set to begin tomorrow morning in Los Angeles. However, right now, it’s all about Sony Corp $SNE and its PlayStation Media Showcase. The current console market leader is known for having lots and lots of games in its shows, with little regard for release window of said games, and tonight’s show was no different.

 

Was a decent show, with highs and lows, but overall I definitely think you’ll be able to find a game that appeals to you on this list. Below are those featured at the media showcase, including details on my most-anticipated game.. Destiny 2!

 

 

Grand Turismo Sport: During Sony’s pre-show, it revealed that the latest installment in the GT racing franchise is out this fall.

 

 

Knack 2: Yes. Sony is actually releasing a sequel to the launch game that turned into an ongoing internet joke and meme. And it’s out September 5th. Honestly, it looks MUCH improved!

 

 

PlayLink for PS4 collection: Two games in this collection were announced: Hidden Agenda, where you use a smart phone as a controller, and That’s You, which looks like a social party game.

 

 

Matterfall: Housemarq indie game, releasing on August 15th.

 

 

Everybody’s Golf: Arcade golf game.

 

 

PlayStation VR Games: Super Hot, Summer 2017. Sparc. Tropico. Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim. Star Child by Playful and published by GameTrust. The Inpatient. Final Fantasy XV fishing. Bravo Team. Moss.

 

 

Undertale: Popular indie PC hit coming to PS4 this summer.

 

 

Ni No Kuni II: Japanese RPG by Bandai Namco now has a release date of November 10th.

 

 

Uncharted The Lost Legacy: This standalone story in the Uncharted series started the show proper with a new trailer, it’s out August 22nd.

 

 

Horizon The Frozen Wilds: Summer 2017 for the first expansion of Guerilla Games’ excellent open world game that released in February.

 

 

Days Gone: We see more from this post-apocalyptic zombie game from Sony Bend where you fight hordes of undead and survivors. Never seen that before. (Sorry, it’s just not doing it for me. I’d rather play The Last of Us.)

 

 

Monster Hunter World: We heard rumblings of this title recently, looks like Capcom is finally officially bringing its beloved franchise to PS4 and Xbox One in the form of an open world game this time. Out in early 2018.

 

 

Shadow of the Colossus: Early 2018. Looks like an HD remake of the 2005 game from Team Ico.

 

 

Marvel vs. Capcom: Infinite: Out September 19th, story demo is actually available today.

 

 

Call of Duty WWII: This game again looks like a Call of Duty game set in World War II. And it’s out in early November.

 

 

God of War: I admit, every time I see this new God of War game, I care more about playing it despite not playing any of the earlier games. Releasing early 2018. No exact release date.

 

 

Detroit: Become Human: Quantic Dream’s futuristic, narrative adventure game featuring androids in an uprising looks very intriguing again as it did last year. Though, no release window revealed.

 

 

Destiny 2: Finally! My favorite franchise of this generation is getting a sequel, and Sony has a marketing deal with Activision/Bungie so (better or worse) it has access to exclusive content: missions and gear, plus a multiplayer map. But the good news is that the release date is now moved up to Wednesday, September 6th on consoles. And October 24th on PC. Bungie will host a beta testing period that begins on July 19th on PS4 and July 19th on Xbox One (for those that pre-ordered) and then July 21st for everyone.

 

Can you tell I’m excited?

 

 

Spider-Man: Insomniac’s take on the  Marvel superhero franchise is out next year. I know lots are excited for it!

 

What It Didn’t Show (Yet): The Last of Us 2, which feels odd because it’s the biggest game Sony has. But it’s also nowhere near done and I guess not ready to show just yet. Media Molecule’s Dreams, Michel Ancel’s WiLD (especially now that he showed Beyond Good & Evil 2 at the Ubisoft show I wrote about earlier). Oh, and Bloodborne 2. I guess none of my long shots are panning out.

 

That’s okay, we still are seeing some really cool games! What did you think of Sony’s briefing? Will you be buying any of these games when they release? Why aren’t you as exicted about Destiny 2 as I am?!

 

Thanks for reading!

 

-Dom

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Bungie Reveals Destiny Sequel Via Images On Social Media

 

Hi folks!

 

As you’ll notice, this is going to be a bit of a different post in that it’s mostly news. I just am excited to share that game developer Bungie, the Washington-based studio behind early games in the Halo franchise, has posted the above image on its Twitter account. This tweet officially announces the sequel to its 2014’s shared-world shooter Destiny, simply entitled: Destiny 2. Like the original, it will be published by Activision Blizzard $ATVI.

 

Two more images below were posted almost simultaneously on Destiny’s Facebook page, showing a variation on the above image then a more detailed look at the bottom half of the area featured in the other two shots.

 

 

 

 

Humor me for a moment, as these are exciting times. Astute Destiny fans will notice that these imagines actually tell us a bit more than it may seem at first glance. The Last City is depicted as being on fire and burning to the ground, assumingly from some sort of attack from an enemy faction. In the original game, The Last City is the only remaining area populated by humans but it was in-tact and not under siege. I can only presume that the player character will be the one responsible for defending The Last City from these evil-doers, or maybe bringing the fight to them in order to take revenge in the name of humanity!

 

These photos also show the Traveler, that mysterious spherical body above The Last City, is essentially unharmed at least for now and it still resides above The Last City in its usual spot. Many in the Destiny universe revere the Traveler as being a “protector” over the last inhabited city on Earth, and it seems humanity desperately needs both it and the player to defend it in the upcoming sequel.

 

 

As for more details on the game itself, no further information from Activision Blizzard or Bungie was shared. So we don’t know anything formally yet on release date, new content, trailers etc. But the indication from the leaked poster above, which surfaced last week after being allegedly leaked by a GameStop Italy employee, is that that Destiny 2 will release on Friday, September 8th later this year. This would be almost exactly 3 years after the original, and for big fans like me, a perfect opportunity for Bungie to expand on the universe it established in the first game while also enhancing all of its aspects including narrative, exploration and of course, my favorite part, its “raids” which are six-person mega-missions that usually feature puzzles, unique enemies and big bosses to overcome.

 

 

 

Lastly, another interesting part of the timing in that it’s right before Bungie kicks off the last live event in the original game’s life span: Age of Triumph. This event is basically the ultimate fan service, where the developer is offering some new quests, bringing older content up-to-date then offering new, remixed versions of gear from the early days of the game which is something players have been requesting for a while. Age of Triumph begins tomorrow, Tuesday, March 28th.

 

What about you? Did you play the original, and if so what was your final verdict on it? Are you excited for Destiny 2 or will you be passing on the game? Feel free to leave a comment, or reach out on Twitter with your thoughts.

 

Sources: Bungie, Activision, Lega Network

 

-Dom

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Analysis of Destiny’s Release Timeline, And How Will Rise of Iron Fare?

destiny-cover

 

Publisher Activision-Blizzard ($ATVI) released its shared-world space shooter Destiny back in September 2014, and the game has been on an interesting timeline ever since.

Developed by Bungie, best known for creating the early games in the Halo series, the genre-bending title started strong out of the gate by racking up around $325 million in sales (sold-through to consumers) in its first week. It overcame a well-documented difficult development cycle and mixed critical reception to become one of the most financially successful launches in the history of gaming.

In the two years since, it has garnered both praise and critique from critics and gamers alike for its mix of online elements, top-rate FPS mechanics and (most recently) cosmetic micro-transations in which players can buy in-game items for real-world dollars. Also, Activision has offered incremental paid expansions in the form of “content drops” by the names of The Dark Below, House of Wolves, The Taken King and finally Rise of Iron which is slated for release tomorrow.

 

dstny_roi_horizontal

 

Each of these expansions built on (lots would say improved) the original game as Bungie updated its economy and systems plus offered new missions and raids (multi-person, complex quests with big rewards), but also costs consumers money as gamers were charged an additional fee on top of the base game. Whether you are a fan of this trajectory or not, the game has amassed a huge following with around 30 million registered users who spend an average of 3 hours playing even years later.

To track its progress individually and overall within Activision as a whole, below I’ll offer a handful of indicators. First is an overview of the firm’s stock price since Destiny’s original release two years back. You’ll see its price in September 2014 was $23.73, and it’s now grown to around $44 per share this week. During this time, the publisher’s market value has increased by $10.9 billion.

 

activision-blizzard-stock-price-20160916

 

It’s true that there are a variety of factors that go into a firm’s share price, among them the broader economy, performance of additional products (Activision-Blizzard also publishes popular games such as Call of Duty, World of Warcraft and Overwatch), mergers such as the acquisition of King Digital and general investor sentiment, but Destiny is a key part of the publisher’s portfolio especially when it comes to generating recurring revenue. The content packs I mentioned before create a revenue stream similar to a subscription-based title like WoW, as opposed to say Overwatch where new characters and maps are offered for free and the only additional revenue comes from cosmetic items.

 

Speaking of recurring revenue, Activision as a business unit within the overall company has found a way to generate ongoing sales via its continued updates for Destiny. A snapshot below shows the unit’s revenue numbers alongside each corresponding Destiny release. General theme is that other than the year-end holidays, a Destiny release over the past two years has meant slightly more revenue than “non-Destiny” quarters. Again, caveat is that the publisher produces other games, of course, but it’s interesting to see sales aligned with an estimate time frame of when each expansion came out.

 

activision-revenue-destiny-timeline-final

 

Lastly, I’ve tracked results in the U.S. games market of the title and its expansions according to the NPD Group, a data provider for the games industry. Upon release, it was the #1 selling game in September 2014 followed by #5 in October 2014. During some of its expansions, it reemerged in the Top 10 especially during Destiny: The Taken King, as this was billed as the largest expansion yet and had the most content. Note that this only tracks the U.S. physical games market prior to a couple months back, but it gives a good sense for how games perform at release and with updated content throughout their life cycles. Destiny is one of the few titles in recent memory that has been a Top Ten regular on-and-off since late 2014.

 

destiny-npd-trend

 

With Destiny: Rise of Iron expansion planned for release tomorrow, how will it fare? Can it again capture lapsed players (including myself) and provide revenue stability? When it comes to Rise of Iron, its content is more aligned more with The Taken King than some of the smaller ones, as it offers multiple missions and the first brand new raid activity in a year. With that comes a higher price tag ($29.99) than the smaller releases of course, but this also provides upside for its sales potential.

 

In the absence of a sequel to Destiny, which isn’t expected until next year, and a release date prior to the big blockbuster releases in the same genre like Battlefield 1, Titanfall 2 and Call of Duty: Infinite Warfare, I think that Rise of Iron will perform about as well as The Taken King, with a Top 5 showing in NPD for September and Top 10 for October, and sales momentum into the 3rd quarter plus holidays that will support Activision’s segment revenue. However, I do not expect Rise of Iron to have the legs of The Taken King, as the aforementioned blockbuster titles will take gamers away and then early 2017 titles such as Horizon: Zero Dawn should overshadow it.

 

Do you think that Destiny: Rise of Iron will sell as well as Destiny: The Taken King or somehow the original game? Are you a lapsed player than plans on jumping back into the game this week? I’m interested to hear! Shoot me a note or comment here.

 

Sources: Activision-Blizzard, Bungie, NASDAQ, NPD Group

 

-Dom

 

 

 

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Quick Thoughts: How Much Did The Division Actually Sell Day One?

The Division Concept Art

 

Quick Thoughts: Ubisoft Entertainment SA (UBI) announced via its UbiBlog that Tom Clancy’s The Division has broken sales records internally as being the best-selling game in the firm’s history. Based on this, how much in dollars did the game actually sell to consumers? My estimate is below. Would you agree?

After Tom Clancy’s The Division’s release this week on Tues, 3/8, publisher UBI has coyly proclaimed that the third-person online RPG had sold more on its first day than any other game in the publisher’s 30-year history. We saw a similar type of announcement with its last fast-selling title, the open-world hacking game Watch Dogs, in 2014.

Frustratingly, in both cases UBI didn’t initially reveal any sort of sales figures in copies or dollars. I will note it ended up that Watch Dogs sold 4 million copies in its first week, but no dollar amount was ever publicized. First I’ll try to put some perspective around this situation and then I’ll make my best estimate (which, full disclaimer, is completely a personal guess).

As for day-one sales, below are closest estimates in dollars of notable launches based on publisher announcements and industry data.

 

Video Game Day-One Sales Chart

 

Couple important items to note: Call of Duty: Ghosts (2013) sold $1 billion to retailers (sold-in) as opposed to consumers (sold-through). Also, Call of Duty: Black Ops III (2015) figures are for the first 72-hour period. Like everything in life, there’s caveats and exceptions and it’s difficult to get a perfect comparison. Ultimately I’ve charted these both for illustration purposes rather than trying to prove that Call of Duty: Ghosts was the best-selling game ever upon launch.

In addition to the titles above, I mentioned Watch Dogs before. If we try to wrap a dollar amount on its first-week sales, let’s take its 4 million worldwide copies multiplied by the standard $60 price tag which would come to $240 million. Note that this is across the span of a full week, so assuming it was front-loaded on launch day, around $150 million or 2.5 million copies that one day. Again, for comparison purposes.

 

Watch Dogs Art

 

So if The Division has sold more than Watch Dogs on launch day, how much did it actually sell? I don’t think that it has eclipsed any of the other names on the chart above, otherwise UBI would have come out and projected that accordingly. Which means to me, it falls somewhere between $150 million and $310 million of both Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (2009) and Grand Theft Auto IV (2008). I’ll bet it ends up being somewhere near the lower band of that range, so my estimate is that The Division may have sold $210 million upon its launch implying around 3.5 million copies, give or take.

Am I overestimating the success of this new franchise? Are my assumptions above completely crazy or perfectly genius? Do you think that The Division sold more than some of the titles in the chart above? Feel free to let me know either way, but until we hear concrete figures from UBI itself, we get to have fun and make bold predictions on our own!

Sources: Ubisoft Entertainment SA, Activision Blizzard, Inc., Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc., Bethesda Softworks, NPD

-Dom

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Quick Thoughts: Can The Division Replicate Destiny’s Success as a Shared-World Shooter?

Quick Thoughts: Simply put, can Tom Clancy’s The Division become as successful as its competitor Destiny, which made a record $500 million during its initial launch and was reported by Activision Blizzard Inc (ATVI) to be the top-selling new IP in North America and Europe in 2014?

 

Tom_Clancy's_The_Division

 

As noted in my previous article, publisher Ubisoft Entertainment SA (UBI) is releasing its biggest title of the year, Tom Clancy’s The Division, soon on March 8th. The shared-world, online shooter with RPG elements set in a frigid Manhattan is the firm’s biggest bet this year as it’s a brand new IP for which the firm expects it to “be one of the largest launches of a new brand in the history of the video game industry,” per CEO Yves Guillemot. And without an Assasin’s Creed title this year, and Watch Dogs 2 yet to be confirmed, The Division is the premier part of UBI’s calendar year portfolio.

Which leads me to my comparison to Activision Blizzard Inc (ATVI)’s hugely-popular online shooter Destiny. Stats from the firm’s reporting show the aforementioned record launch and even over a year later, the game has over 25 million registered users which have around 3 billion hours. It has yet to be seen if this success can be sustained through the decade-long plan that ATVI is rumored to have for the franchise, but with net revenues increasing last year to $4.6 billion (compared with $4.4 prior year), Destiny is a main contributing factor to the firm’s continued success as one of the world’s largest publishers.

 

ATVI 2015 Revenues

 

Going back to The Division, UBI hasn’t divulged their internal sales forecasts for the title in particular however they have released guidance of increased sales during final quarter of 2015-16 and relatively healthy full-year sales in 2016-17. From a consumer perspective, the game will scratch the same itch as Destiny from an RPG loot and leveling perspective however the key is its mechanics and narrative content, the latter of which was the main knock on Destiny when it first came out.

Based on this, it’s a fresh new IP that’s quite ambitious, so my personal take is if it delivers enough content between its story missions, side quests and “Dark Zone” PvP concept (which is an area many have compared to survival games where players can decide to either work together or fight against one another to collect the game’s best gear), I think that The Division can certainly compete with Destiny and even steal a portion of the games user base as ATVI hasn’t released new content since September 2015’s Taken King expansion. And ATVI announced that a sequel to Destiny won’t be out this year, which leaves the door open even further.

Whether it will generate $500 million in day-one sales or achieve 25 million users in its first year, that has yet to be seen, but the game is one of the year’s most intriguing releases.

 

Destiny Cover

Sources: Activision Blizzard Inc 4th Quarter & Full Year Financial Results 2015, Ubisoft 3rd Quarter 2015-16 Earnings, Xbox One UK.com

-Dom