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Which Indie Video Game Has More Sales Potential: Mighty No. 9 or No Man’s Sky?

Mighty No 9 Box Art

No Man's Sky Box Art

 

There are a variety of factors that drive how well a product sells: cost, marketing, timing of release, inventories and consumer sentiment among them. When it comes to video games, publishers often target the demand side of the equation by either appealing to gamer nostalgia or innovating on a familiar concept in order to draw attention to their title within the vast landscape of games released today.

 

The creators of two upcoming indie games are using these tactics: Mighty No. 9, developed by Comcept/Inti Creates with publishing by Deep Silver; and No Man’s Sky, which is made and published by Hello Games. The former is a nostalgia play, with its Mega Man-influenced action-platforming gameplay, while the latter is a monumental effort in the space exploration/survival and flight simulation category, boasting an infinite universe for players to explore. Mighty No. 9 is releasing on a variety of platforms, while No Man’s Sky is a Sony PlayStation 4 “timed” console exclusive that will also be available on PC.

 

Deep Silver Logo

 

Both games have had an interesting history to date, which will certainly impact sales potential. Mighty No. 9 is the brainchild of former Mega Man producer Keiji Inafune, and was announced way back in 2013 with a Kickstarter crowd-funding campaign that has since raised around $4 million on the strength of 67K backers. However, the game has been delayed multiple times, annoying backers and potential consumers, and has been ridiculed for generic gameplay reveals and an especially corny marketing trailer (see below). Review consensus also seems to be negative overall from early impressions.

 

 

Hello Games Logo

 

No Man’s Sky was revealed at E3 2014 to broad fanfare, though skeptics point out the game’s colossal ambition could ironically also be its downfall plus Hello Games has been quite secretive on what it exactly is that you do in the game other than explore its vast universe. The game has developed a fervent online following, and was originally scheduled for a release this month but has since been pushed back to August. Upon news of this delay, creator Sean Murray received death threats from crazed individuals. As much as this is pure insanity, it also displays the thirst for a game that perfects the space exploration genre.

 

Sean Murray Twitter

 

So, what kind of sales potential do indie campaigns like this have? Mighty No. 9 has a very attractive price of $30, though the negativity swirling around its Kickstarter campaign and several delays indicates to me that the hype level is dwindling at the worst possible time with its release this week. Though the Mega Man series that inspired the game has sold approximately 31 million units to date, the highest-selling title in the series is Mega Man 2 at around 1.51 million copies.

 

I can’t see Mighty No. 9 being anywhere near as successful, even considering the 67K or so backers. I can see around 450-500K copies worldwide lifetime at the most.

 

No Man's Sky Image

 

 

Now, No Man’s Sky is a bit of a different story. It has established a following that is already starved for both information and a great game in the genre itself, so I believe it can withstand its recent delay. And even though it is only releasing on PS4 and PC, and it’s a full-priced $60 game, I still see lots of upside with the current install base of PS4 being around 40 million and the game itself appealing to a PC audience. Another promising point is that we’ve seen solid sales for space titles recently, as names like Kerbal Space Program by Squad and Elite: Dangerous by Frontier Developments (FDEV) have sold over 1 million and 500K units, respectively. Even an older title like EVE Online by CCP Games is still estimated to have around 340K active players.

 

With the hype surrounding No Man’s Sky, success of (somewhat) comparables and its release timing before the pre-holiday rush, I estimate it could sell upwards of 1.5-1.75 million around the world with most of those coming this year.

 

Do you agree that Mighty No. 9 will sell less than No Man’s Sky? Or do you think the uncertainty around delays of both titles will mean that neither will sell particularly well?

 

Note that Mighty No. 9 releases on Tuesday 6/21, while No Man’s Sky is currently slated to come out on Tuesday, 8/9.

 

Sources: Deep Silver, Hello Games, No-Mans-Sky.com, Capcom, Frontier Developments, Kickstarter, YouTube.

 

-Dom

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Prediction: Which Console Exclusive Will Sell More: Uncharted 4 or Quantum Break?

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Prediction: Which gaming console exclusive will sell more copies across its lifetime: Uncharted 4: A Thief’s End, releasing May 10th on Sony Corp’s (6758) PlayStation 4 or Quantum Break which is out tomorrow Apr 5th on Microsoft Corporation’s Xbox One? Note that the latter will also be available on PC.

*FAIR WARNING* This will be a lengthy post, and more analytical than my usual ones. This is to dive deep into what is driving my predictions, rather than simply stating them blindly.

My personal guesstimates are below. In my opinion, Uncharted 4 has the better upside since it is the latest and likely last installment in a long-standing series. Additionally, PS4 user base is larger at around 36 million currently and I expect it to be as much as 50 million by end of 2016 based on growth since launch (and even more by the end of the generation, as we’ll see below). Moreover, Quantum Break is a brand new intellectual property (IP) for the lagging Xbox One this generation so its sales potential is lower despite its overall favorable critical reception now that review embargo has lifted as of last week.

When it comes to these two exclusives, quick predictions for sales this year and then rationale to follow:

Uncharted 4: A Thief’s End (Naughty Dog, Sony Computer Entertainment)

Predicted Lifetime Sales: 8 million

Quantum Break (Remedy Entertainment, Microsoft Studios)

Predicted Lifetime Sales: 5.9 million

The basis for these predictions comes down to a handful of factors: Current and predicted install base of each current generation console, historical attach rates of similar titles (comparison of software units sold per units of its console), actual company estimates and finally pre-order figures.

uncharted-4-a-thiefs-end_2015_01-29-15_017

For Uncharted 4, the historical sales of each installment in the series is as follows over each game’s lifetime compared with the install base of PlayStation 3 on which all were originally released. Note these are lifetime sales:

Uncharted Series Lifetime Sales

Subsequently, current lifetime sales of select PS4 exclusives to date and corresponding attach rates based on 36 million units sold of the console itself. Caveats, obviously, these are newer than the older Uncharted games and some are available on PC. But these represent only console sales.

PS4 Exclusive Lifetime Sales

Pushing this one step further, let’s assume based on early sales trends that the PS4 will outsell the PS3 to upwards of 100 million (almost what the PS2 sold). Using this assumption, these are “potential” lifetime figures of the same select PS4 exclusives we just plotted at current attach rates:

Potential PS4 Exclusive Lifetime Sales

Which ultimately leads to my estimate of 8 million lifetime sales for Uncharted 4, assuming it achieves an attach rate of 7.50% which is comparable to earlier titles in the Uncharted series and a bit more than select titles currently available for the PS4 console. This is my built-in upside, as the title has already achieved gold status which is pre-order sales of 250,000 before it has even released.

Estimated Uncharted 4 Lifetime Sales

 

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As for new Xbox One title Quantum Break, we’ll first look at historical sales of new exclusive titles available on “Original” Xbox and Xbox 360 platforms over the past few years again compared with corresponding console sales:

Xbox Exclusive Lifetime Sales

Now sales of Xbox One exclusives to date and attach rates based on 20 million consoles in the wild:

X1 Exclusives Lifetime Sales

Similar to what we had above, the following is “potential” lifetime figures assuming that the Xbox One sells exactly the same as its predecessor which is around 84 million. I am estimating less lifetime sales here than PS4 based on the Xbox One lagging for the foreseeable future.

Potential X1 Exclusives Lifetime Sales

Almost done. While Quantum Break isn’t a part of an existing series, I’ve charted how earlier games by Remedy Entertainment have sold on their individual consoles. Note these are not console exclusives except for Alan Wake.

Remedy Entertainment Lifetime Sales Final

And finally, this brings me to my Quantum Break estimate of 5.9 million lifetime unit sales. I have to assume the game has an attach rate similar to existing Xbox One exclusives like Halo 5 or earlier Remedy title Alan Wake rather than classic titles such as Halo: Combat Evolved or original Fable. And also, this assumes Xbox One again sells as much as the Xbox 360 which I think is realistic depending on how this generation plays out.

Estimated Quantum Break Lifetime Sales

 

Two MAJOR edits at this juncture: The Alan Wake sales figures above initially were high, as this is the figure was for the series overall. I have edited this to reflect Xbox 360 sales only which are around 1.5 million. Also, the big caveat that I didn’t properly convey is that at present Quantum Break is a console exclusive and it is available on PC but only via the Windows Store. Limiting distribution to one platform on PC rather than opening it up to others, namely Steam, will have huge negative implications for sales of the title overall. If MSFT doesn’t offer Quantum Break on the most popular PC distribution platforms at some point in its lifetime, and Xbox One doesn’t sell as well as Xbox 360, then my estimates would need to be revised downward.

Keep in mind, there are a ton of assumptions and estimates here. The bottom line is that I think Uncharted 4 has the greater potential when all is said and done, in that it’s the final installment in an established series going up against a brand new game in Quantum Break. This is despite higher historical attach rates for Xbox exclusives, as I think the Xbox One console could sell less than its competitor PS4 plus Quantum Break is an unproven brand. How do you feel about these assumptions and estimates? Do you think Quantum Break will actually sell more?

Sources: Sony Corp, Microsoft Corporation, Remedy Entertainment, NPD Group, Forbes, GameSpot, Amazon

-Dom