It’s the fourth quarter of 2023 already?! Seriously, time. Slow down.
As we inevitably enter the final stretch of what’s been a tough year for the games industry yet a great year for new releases, not only does Microsoft finally own Activision Blizzard, it’s secured another big win with its latest hit Starfield.
Even so, Sony held its own in the hardware realm during a big September for industry sales as reported by tracking firm Circana (formerly known as The NPD Group).
Last month, consumers spent nearly $4.5 billion on gaming. That’s up 10% since the same time in 2022. It marks the fifth consecutive month of growth and the second best September on record behind 2021.
Within the premium software ranks, six of last month’s top seven top sellers were new to market.
Starfield proved to be best among them, rocketing to the top of September’s overall chart. The sci-fi role-playing game from Bethesda Softworks became the first Xbox console exclusive to top the monthly list since State of Decay 2 back in May 2018.
September’s solid sales result also benefited from the latest entries in long-running series. Mortal Kombat 1 from Warner Bros. fought to second place while Electronic Arts’ rebranded soccer series EA Sports FC 24 scored third.
As for Hardware, PlayStation 5 again led all console sales, as it has most of 2023. Which is even more notable in a month where software was led by an Xbox console exclusive. Sony’s supply consistency and third party offerings keep it relevant at all times.
Circana’s Mat Piscatella confirmed on Twitter that premium game sales are doing “great” right now, though September’s growth for this particular segment came in a bit below his expectations.
Scroll down for a detailed look at the numbers, then my predictions moving into yet another busy month in gaming.
United States Games Industry Sales (August 27th, 2023 September 30th, 2023)
As referenced earlier, people spent upwards of $4.5 billion across gaming in September, up 10%.
Two of the three major categories, Content and Accessories, also generated double-digit growth. Underlying this upward momentum was a decent boost from mobile, a slew of software launches and a fair bit of interest in premium peripherals. All of this was enough to offset a decline from Hardware.
That means across the first nine months of 2023, spending rose 2% to $39.4 billion. All three categories experienced gains during this time frame.
Beginning with the largest area of Content, last month it contributed $3.85 billion. That made up nearly 86% of September’s total. For the year so far, it’s up 2% to $34 billion.
During September, sales from mobile devices moved up 4%. The list of top earners was unchanged compared to August, led by MONOPOLY GO!, Royal Match, Roblox, Candy Crush and Pokémon Go in that order.
Moving to premium software, September’s winner Starfield was best on both Xbox and PC, with the latter being its lead platform here. It’s immediately the 7th top-selling title of 2023. Note: These ranks do include revenue from the early access version, but they don’t include Xbox Game Pass subscriptions because that’s more broadly tracked in the subscription category.
Circana put together a handy list of Bethesda titles for comparison, this time using dollar sales (as some earlier charts were based on units). Fallout 76, Fallout 4 and The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim all started in second during their respective launch months. The only other recent Bethesda title to lead its debut was The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion in 2006, meaning Starfield is in rarefied air for the team.
Next up was Mortal Kombat 1 at #2, the latest in a long lineage of gruesome sellers from NetherRealm Studios. It led the PlayStation platform chart, and is already the 8th best-selling of 2023. For context, both Mortal Kombat X and current franchise leader at 15 million unit sales Mortal Kombat 11 led their first months.
Yes, not only does this fighting game franchise consistently kill it commercially, it’s also adopted a convoluted naming convention. Can’t wait until Mortal Kombat 2 launches (again) in a few years.
Rounding out the Top 3 was EA Sports FC 24, which starts in 14th on the annual chart to date. Turns out it didn’t necessarily need FIFA branding. This year gained double-digit growth in units and dollars compared to FIFA 23. Domestic success echoes globally, where Electronic Arts said it had 11.3 million players at launch, a million more than its predecessor, growing new players by 20%.
The next new titles to chart were Payday 3, NBA 2K24 and The Crew Motorfest in 5th to 7th place, respectively. The usual caveat being Take-Two Interactive, the publisher of NBA 2K, doesn’t share digital, so it’s likely the basketball sim would be higher all included. Still, Payday 3 securing a Top 5 start reflects strong demand for the first franchise title in a decade.
The Crew Motorfest continues to be a pleasant, if quiet, sales surprise, racing to 7th place here amidst a crowded field. The Crew 2 started in 4th back in June 2018. Ubisoft said this latest release had the best first week globally in the history of The Crew, a franchise that has attracted over 40 million players during its nine year history.
You might be asking: Where’s Baldur’s Gate 3 since it hit PC in August and PlayStation last month? According to Circana, its publisher Larian Studios is another that doesn’t share digital for the purposes of charting. Piscatella said it’s doing “exceptionally well” especially on engagement over time. It ranked second on their Circana Player Engagement Tracker, ahead of Starfield in 3rd. On console, it was #20 on that list.
Briefly touching on the 2023 to date sales chart, Hogwarts Legacy and The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom kept their spots at #1 and #2 while Madden NFL 24 moved into the Top 3 after a full month of sales. Elsewhere, Armored Core VI: Fires of Rubicon is a big mover, jumping four spots to 16th.
Read on for a full look at September and 2023 software ranks.
Top-Selling Games of September 2023, U.S., All Platforms (Physical & Digital Dollar Sales):
- Starfield
- Mortal Kombat 1
- EA Sports FC 24
- Madden NFL 24
- Payday 3
- NBA 2K24*
- The Crew Motorfest
- Armored Core VI: Fires of Rubicon
- Hogwarts Legacy
- Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2
- Star Wars Jedi: Survivor
- Resident Evil 4 Remake
- The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom*
- Minecraft
- Mario Kart 8*
- Rainbow Six: Siege
- Gran Turismo 7
- Elden Ring
- Sea of Thieves
- Diablo IV
Top-Selling Games of 2023 So Far, U.S., All Platforms (Physical & Digital Dollar Sales):
- Hogwarts Legacy
- The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom*
- Madden NFL 24
- Diablo IV
- Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2
- Star Wars Jedi: Survivor
- Starfield
- Mortal Kombat 1
- Resident Evil 4 Remake
- MLB The Show 23^
- Dead Island 2
- Final Fantasy XVI
- Street Fighter 6
- EA Sports FC 24
- FIFA 23
- Armored Core VI: Fires of Rubicon
- Elden Ring
- Remnant II
- Dead Space Remake
- Mario Kart 8*
Hardware was the only main segment to see lower spending this September than last, down 8% to $451 million.
Underlying this, Xbox Series X|S generated single-digit growth while PlayStation 5 and Nintendo Switch declined. No specifics on the actual numbers, but this gives a sense of how last September was quite strong for PlayStation and Nintendo in particular, and Xbox benefited from Starfield demand.
Even so, console sales are up 10% for 2023 right now to $3.7 billion. Hardware is the only major category trending towards double-digit annual growth.
Despite having “slightly” lower unit sales year-on-year, PlayStation 5 continued its trend atop the console ranks, leading September as measured by both dollars and units sold.
For the second straight month, Xbox’s family of devices landed in second. Circana pointed out that last month saw the highest Xbox ecosystem units sold since September 2016. Plus, Xbox revenue was the best since September 2014. While Microsoft’s strategy is more diversified than its counterparts, of course it wants people to buy retail boxes.
Thing is that Xbox’s big console exclusives don’t necessarily sell as much hardware as they used to in generations past. What they do is bring people to Game Pass and can stimulate sales on other platforms, like PC.
Expanding to the full year, PlayStation 5 is best in hardware on both revenue and units, as it has been for most if not all of 2023. Sony recently announced a slightly slimmer revision to its latest box, while also upping the price of its digital only version in certain territories, which will hit U.S. stores next month. Thus, I expect its dominance this year to continue.
Moving onto our final category of Accessories, spending during September bumped up 11% when compared to a year ago, to $197 million.
Circana shouted out a couple sub-areas here with double-digit spending growth. Racing controllers moved up 18%, while Gamepads increased by 15%. The former perhaps due to the ongoing popularity of titles like Gran Turismo 7 and The Crew Motorfest alongside anticipation of Forza Motorsport which hit market last week, and the latter to play all the fancy new games.
In terms of last month’s best seller, that goes to the Marvel’s Spider-Man 2 Limited Edition version of the PlayStation Dual Sense controller. Makes sense, considering it became available well before its game counterpart launches tomorrow and was one of the most sought after products in all of gaming this year.
I’ve also confirmed directly with Circana that the premium PlayStation 5 DualSense Edge pad continues as 2023’s leading peripheral on revenue.
Lastly, a tidbit on augmented and virtual reality. Piscatella noted that February’s PlayStation VR2 continues to have a “low single digit attach rate,” implying that less than 5% of PlayStation 5 owners have purchased one. It’s a high barrier to entry, after all, considering it’s tethered to the console.
This category could see a decent boost soon as the Meta Quest 3 officially hit stores earlier this month. I think Meta’s new headset has some good upside. The product series is the closest thing the niche AR/VR market has to a commercial hit, even if it won’t be mainstream any time soon.
With its bevy of AAA game launches and a resilient hardware against a high comparable, September was great month overall for domestic industry sales. It highlights Xbox’s evolving dynamics in the console space, alongside the appeal of PlayStation 5 for multi-platform titles. Nintendo was a bit quiet, although that will certainly change in the fourth quarter.
On the subscription side within Content, Piscatella described its spending as having a lot of “churn” implying a good amount of turnover without moving too much in either direction. People moving from one service to the other, rather than being additive.
He and others have described how subscription growth hit a plateau after an initial ramp up phase. Domestically, Xbox’s Game Pass revenue rose last month (unfortunately no specifics publicly on actual numbers) however other services were lower year-on-year. This implies that PlayStation Plus had a down month.
Well then. No rest for the weary! October is shaping up to be massive.
There’s a monumental battle scheduled between Mario and Spider-Man. PlayStation and Nintendo. It starts tomorrow with new games for both big name brands, and these will dictate how high spending can go this month.
Due to this, among other new releases, I’m thinking spending will go up in October potentially in the double-digit range.
That will be driven by Content, which has two of the year’s best-reviewed titles in Super Mario Bros. Wonder and Marvel Spider-Man 2. The big question is which of these will have a better ranking on the premium chart, and lead one of the year’s biggest months?
My official Twitter poll is virtually neck and neck, with Spider-Man having a slight edge at the time of publishing. While Nintendo Switch has a massive ownership base and Mario is one of the biggest IP in the world, this will solely count retail sales for that title. Considering this, I’m guessing that Spider-Man swings into first during October.
Then there’s the likes of Assassin’s Creed Mirage, Detective Pikachu, Forza Motorsport, Sonic Superstars and Alan Wake 2. Shoot, there’s even Skull Island: Rise of Kong, a new dreadfully bad King Kong game!
I can see Assassin’s Creed Mirage jumping into the Top 7. Sonic Superstars maybe Top 10. Alan Wake 2 is a straight up digital release, and I don’t know if Epic Games is a chart participant. One thing I can safely say is Skull Island: Rise of Kong will regrettably miss the Top 20.
On the hardware side, I’m leaning towards PlayStation 5 on dollars and Nintendo Switch getting units. Partially because each will have special editions associated with their respective flagship games. (Talk about fence-sitting, hah.)
I’m way upbeat, basically all around, on the start to this final quarter!
Highly recommend checking out Piscatella’s thread on social for more pre-Halloween sales goodies. He’s been answering a lot of questions there too, especially around digital, Starfield and Baldur’s Gate 3. Much respect, Mat.
Thanks everyone for reading my latest recap! Be safe.
Note: Comparisons are year-over-year unless otherwise noted.
*Digital Sales Not Included
^Xbox & Nintendo Switch Digital Sales Not Included
Sources: Bethesda Softworks, Circana, Electronic Arts, PlayStation Blog, Ubisoft.
-Dom