It’s a busy week here at the site and on socials, partly because the earnings calendar is packed. So, there’s no time to waste, I’ll get right into the topic at hand.

Nintendo reported its second quarter of its fiscal 2024 yesterday, which showcased a fantastic first six months. With sales rising more than 20%, this time frame ended up being the single biggest first half of a fiscal year for revenue since the Switch launched back in 2017.

With a couple of caveats. As always.

First, the results were mostly driven by the record first quarter that I wrote about in August. When focusing strictly on the April to June period, revenue and operating profit declined 4% and 20%, respectively due to a relatively light launch schedule and lower quarterly Switch hardware output than a year ago.

Beyond these dynamics, Japan is currently seeing its worst local currency depreciation in decades. Which is always worth mentioning in this context, and Nintendo specifically cites the yen movement in its report, because it has a notable effect on Japanese companies that operate globally.

Echoing this, Switch hardware unit shipments totaled 2.93 million in the quarter. That’s off 10% from the 3.25 million this time last year. Still, it pushed Switch lifetime shipments to 132.46 million, making it only the third gaming hardware ever to pass the 130 million mark.

In terms of new games, Pikmin 4 was Switch’s big title during the quarter, and has shipped 2.61 million copies since June. This amount means it’s already the highest-selling game in the franchise to date. Add it to the list of titles impacted by the Switch effect, which often boosts new titles in existing series to all-time sales records.

The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom also contributed to software and continued its monumental run, now approaching the 20 million unit milestone in just its second quarter. The latest mainline Zelda is a smash hit, already at almost two-thirds of 2017’s classic Breath of the Wild lifetime sales!

In what I’d argue is the most important part of the report, and something I predicted would happen during my Q1 article, Nintendo raised most of its guidance for the full financial year. Management now expects higher revenue, operating profit, software unit shipments and will pay a higher dividend to shareholders. The only thing it didn’t raise was Switch hardware shipments, which it “only” reiterated at the current level of expectation.

“For hardware, by continuing to convey the appeal of Nintendo Switch, we try not only to put one system in every home, but several in every home, or even one for every person,” the company said related to its forecast. “Another objective is to continually release new offerings so more consumers
keep playing Nintendo Switch even longer and we can maximize hardware sales.”

Here’s quick bonus for something that happened after this financial period: Nintendo announced today that Super Mario Bros. Wonder sold-thru 4.3 million units to consumers during two weeks on sale. This makes it the fastest-selling Super Mario title, at least since the firm began tracking this stat in 2004. No wonder execs are more optimistic after yet another historic Switch launch.

Just like Drill Mario would, I’m now going to dig deeper into the numbers.

I’ll first address its quarterly earnings then expand to the 1st half and annualized figures for greater context on how Nintendo’s business is faring over time.

For the second quarter alone, revenue came in at $2.38 billion or 4% lower than a year back. Operating profit dropped 20% to $670 million. Which checks out, due to the big release of this period being Pikmin 4 plus Switch has almost achieved hardware saturation in its likely last year.

Taking the full six months into account, Nintendo achieved $5.65 billion in sales and $1.99 billion in operating income, increases of 21% and 27% respectively. That sales number is above even Switch’s best year in 2020, and operating profit is not far off from that year’s high either.

While this is certainly bumped up by out-performance of Tears of the Kingdom and the Super Mario Bros. Movie, slightly higher hardware units and early upside from Pikmin 4, there’s also the element of yen depreciation. While currency movement is usually more temporary, Japan’s currency weakness has been ongoing for many quarters now.

Taking a look into product categories, Nintendo’s hardware business accounted for around 41% of sales during both the first quarter and six months. That’s relatively constant since last year, when it was at 40%. Software accounted for the remaining 59% this time around, where it was 60% last year. A system-seller like Zelda plus certain bundles continue to prop up console sales this late in the cycle.

From a regional perspective, sales shifted out of Japan and into other territories. Both the Americas and Europe stayed the same since last year, contributing 44% and 23%, respectively. Japan declined from 24% to 21%, while what Nintendo classifies as Other jumped up from 9% to 12%.

Both digital and Intellectual Property (IP) related sales experienced the most growth during Nintendo’s first fiscal half, even if these areas still don’t represent a major portion of sales. Digital revenue output moved up 16%, and accounted for exactly half of the company’s Q2 dollar sales, virtually the same as the 51% a year ago. The mobile and IP-related category more than doubled, jumping 133%. Growth came more so from the IP side than mobile, as The Super Mario Bros. Movie stands at over $1.36 billion in box office earnings.

Combining the last four quarters, the company’s trailing 12-month revenue is currently at $13 billion. While down slightly since last quarter’s $13.12 billion, it’s up 6% year-on-year. Annualized operating profit is tracking towards $4.2 billion, down only slightly compared to both Q1 and last year’s second quarter.

If the revenue number holds, and the firm hits its latest target, Nintendo could achieve the highest annual sales since Wii’s massive popularity in 2008, even with the Switch hanging on during its twilight years.

Pulling a similar passage from my last Microsoft write-up, I’d like to compare industry peers to get a sense of where all of them stand right now. Sony, which reports results tomorrow, had PlayStation revenue upwards of $27.8 billion at last count. Tencent came in next at $25 billion, then Microsoft generated $15.78 billion before the Activision Blizzard deal closed. This is where Nintendo slots, at $13 billion. One thing to note is that Nintendo is more profitable than Sony, which is the only firm out of these four that reports profit numbers for gaming, and I’d imagine it has better margins than Microsoft’s Xbox business with its big investments and product expenses lately.

I mentioned a bit about Nintendo’s hardware results up front, I’ll now get into a more detailed breakdown of this product category.

The second quarter saw those 2.93 million Switch shipped to market, compared to 3.25 million a year ago. This tracks, notably after just how many units moved during the prior quarter, including a desirable special edition for Zelda.

Now, during the first six months of fiscal 2024, Switch sales moved up 2% to 6.84 million. While not quite at the highs of the Switch’s glory days in 2020 to 2022, it is above earlier shipments figures before 2019 during the corresponding time frame.

This shows the utter resilience of Nintendo’s hardware appeal, and making games that translate well from console to handheld. Plus, it highlights how the move to an OLED model replacing the base model drives people to picking up multiple devices for themselves or household members.

Out of those 6.84 million for the first half, 4.69 million were OLED versions. That makes up 69% of the total, and it’s 32% higher than last year’s figure. In fact, it’s the only model to grow over this time frame, considering the base model dropped 44% to 1.25 million units and Switch Lite moved down a more modest 2% to 900K.

This continues to life the lifetime Switch hardware figure, now standing at that 132.46 million. Which is still wild to write, mainly because of how it’s outpaced all expectations. Even mine and Nintendo’s itself. Thing is, while it’s secured a Top 3 spot on the all-time best-selling console list, I don’t see it moving up any further assuming Super Switch is out within the next 12 months. There’s still a 21.56 million gap between Switch and Nintendo DS at 154.02 million.

Then again, the Switch has exceeded all expectations thus far. It might surprise me.

One additional item that I found disappointing from Nintendo’s report is there wasn’t any further detail on console sell-thru to consumers, which it has recently added to its explanatory material. This is likely because it’s trending downward. Still, I’d rather the more data, the better. Maybe next time.

I’ll now take a similar look at the current software dynamic for Nintendo, the segment that makes up the majority of its business right now.

Overall Switch software unit sales in the quarter totaled 44.87 million, down 14% from 54 million. On the flip side, 1st half game sales rose 2% from 95.41 million to 97.08 million. It helps to have one of the highest-rated titles of all time launched in this period in Tears of the Kingdom.

These results drove lifetime software sales for Switch to pass yet another major milestone, this time surpassing 1.1 billion copies sold. It’s now upwards of 1.13 billion, an astonishing result. For perspective, the DS and Wii never reached a billion, even with the former selling many more hardware units. The sheer number of games that Switch owners buy, especially first party, is higher than any Nintendo device in history.

Speaking of big sellers, the number of games that have shipped over a million units during the current fiscal year jumped up a sizeable amount. There were only two back in Q1, just Tears of the Kingdom and the ever-present Mario Kart 8 Deluxe. The Q2 number was 16. Out of these, 12 were published by Nintendo while 4 were produced by third parties.

Chief among them being Pikmin 4, hitting that all-time high for a Pikmin franchise game of 2.61 million units in a single quarter. The previous record holder was Pikmin 3 Deluxe, another Switch title that has moved 2.4 million copies since October 2020.

I will point out that while the latest title has the best lifetime unit sales already, it currently has a lower attach rate than its predecessor partially because of just how many Switch have flooded the market. Pikmin 3 sold 1.28 million, or 9% of Wii U console sales, while Pikmin 4 stands at a 2% attach rate. For the time being.

Separately, it’s hard to overstate the pure magnitude of Tears of the Kingdom. The title sold another million units in the quarter ending September, bringing lifetime sales to 19.5 million. It’s not often that a game approaches 20 million units in a couple quarters. Thus, the title held its position as the 9th best-selling Switch title and will easily surpass Super Mario Party‘s 19.66 million next quarter.

I can’t write about Nintendo earnings and not mention Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, the game that never stops selling. It sold more copies than the brand new Zelda title last quarter, moving over a million and a half in Q2 alone. This game is almost a decade old, people! After this latest boost, the Switch version has officially passed 57 million sold to date.

Elsewhere in terms of new milestones, 2022’s Nintendo Switch Sports scored a new mark, passing 10 million to settle at 10.77 million.

While Nintendo usually reports on shipped numbers, it did share some insight into sell-thru to consumers. In addition to the aforementioned record launch for Super Mario Bros. Wonder, Pikmin 4 has sold-thru 2.5 million units globally as of last week, the largest start in series history.

As for engagement and player stats, Nintendo hit us with an update on Switch Online memberships and (its made-up stat of) Annual Playing Users, both of which are growing at this time as the user base expands. Switch Online subscribers now stand at 38 million, up from 36 million as of September 2022. Annual Playing Users, which is the number of people who have played a single game on Switch in the last 12 months, moved up to 117 million. It was 116 million in Q1, and 108 million last year.

Even considering the latest quarter trending down a bit, Nintendo bucked the trend of an aging console during the first half of fiscal 2024, turning it into a historic one for top-line sales compared to all others since the Switch first launched. It certainly helped to have a blockbuster movie to supplement traditional revenue streams, capitalizing on the quality of its big brand identities.

For a console manufacturer, this highlights the need to diversify. Especially when deep into a hardware cycle at a time when investment is ramping up for the next big device and its corresponding launch lineup.

Nintendo has mixed success in the past leveraging IP in various types of media. The last few months show it’s possible, between theme parks and film, proving there’s major upside as long as they instill that magic that has defined the company for generations and appeal to a multi-generational audience. Cross-media is a core factor behind what’s becoming a banner year for the publisher. And now with the announcement of a live-action Zelda flick in development, it will shape the company’s future income as well.

Here’s where I’ll look at that updated forecast, moving into the pivotal back half of the 2024 fiscal period.

Executives increased annual guidance for overall revenue by 9% to $11.2 billion. Operating profit guidance rose 11%, now expecting $3.55 billion. Additionally, it now expects to sell 185 million units of software during the full year, 3% higher than its initial forecast.

I honestly think the financial targets are still too conservative, based on the annualized numbers I referenced earlier. I think management will slightly increase revenue and profit estimates in its next report.

The firm also confirmed annual Switch hardware unit sales guidance at 15 million. That means between the holiday quarter and the first calendar year quarter, it needs to move 8.16 million more units. For context, last year’s December quarter alone saw sales of 8.23 million. While the Switch is a year older, I believe Super Mario Bros. Wonder among other title launches, a new Red Mario OLED model and a Super Smash Bros. Ultimate bundle can produce enough sales to beat the current estimate.

Even though I’m bullish, I’m slightly less upbeat than I was three months ago. I will slightly reduce my target, now expecting between 16 million to 16.5 million in the year ending March 2024.

2023 has been a huge year for Nintendo’s first-party lineup, across mainline Zelda and Mario titles alone, and I believe it has a decent supplemental slate for the holidays that can lead to financial targets being beat. Detective Pikachu Returns, WarioWare: Move It!, a remake of Super Mario RPG plus more content for Mario Kart and Pokémon titles will act as a second helping to the ongoing main courses of Zelda and Mario.

As for what’s ahead in 2024 and beyond, notably for the console transition, I’ll address those in a future article. For now, that does it for Nintendo’s latest quarter. Stay tuned this week for Sony’s results, and hop over to the earnings calendar to track everything this season.

Thanks for reading! Take care, all.

Note: Comparisons are year-over-year unless otherwise noted. Exchange rate is based on reported average conversion: US $1 to ¥140.96.

Sources: Bloomberg, Company Investor Relations Websites.

-Dom

First it was Microsoft. Then it was Sony. Now it’s time for Nintendo to get in on the action, reporting its first quarter fiscal 2023 (already!) financial results out of Japan today.

Like trends seen at other console manufacturers, Nintendo’s numbers were mixed with a sprinkling of positive highlights and major milestones. The Kyoto-based manufacturer and publisher is experiencing normalization back towards pre-pandemic levels, facing the impact of a high comparable last year, hardware supply challenges, inflationary pressure plus a lighter lineup of summer blockbusters.

During the three months ending June, Switch passed a major milestone in terms of its global unit sales. It’s now become only the third home console ever to surpass the 110 million units shipped threshold, sharing such rarefied air with Sony’s PlayStation 2 and PlayStation 4. Even amidst chip shortages going into its sixth year on market, the Switch is persevering.

Even so, Nintendo’s financials proved to be weaker than the same time last year. Both revenue and operating profit experienced declines, the latter in the double-digit range. Gains due to a weaker yen and Switch OLED’s higher contribution couldn’t outweigh pressure from chip shortages and people returning to experiential spending elsewhere. It’s also important to keep in mind how the last two years have been outliers, in many respects.

“Positive factors included the depreciation of the yen and the addition of Nintendo Switch OLED Model with its high unit price to the hardware lineup,” executives shared in the company’s presentation. “But hardware production was impacted by factors such as the global shortage of semiconductor components, resulting in a decrease in hardware shipments and subsequent decline in overall sales.”

This is partially due to lower software unit sales, as Switch saw less than half as many “million-sellers” in this year’s fiscal Q1. New releases centered on casual sports, as both Nintendo Switch Sports and Mario Strikers: Battle League hit during this window, and both became million-sellers. Kirby and the Forgotten Land continues its excellent performance, becoming the best-selling game ever in the mainline Kirby franchise. Like usual, Nintendo’s software results were bolstered by ongoing momentum from the likes of Mario Kart 8, Animal Crossing: New Horizons and the healthy Ring Fit Adventure.

Nintendo, and I, expected this sort of movement from last year’s highs based on things like the general release slate and various macroeconomic factors. Which is why the company reaffirmed annual guidance around sales, profitability, hardware and software units. I’ll write a bit later about my own forecasts given this framework.

There’s not a moment to waste! It’s time to slide right into the numbers. Get ready for two whole galleries of images, the first from Nintendo’s presentation and the second a grouping of my own charts displaying key financial indicators.

During this April to June time frame, Nintendo generated around $2.37 billion in revenue or 5% lower than last year when measured in local currency. Operating profit totaled $784 million, representing a 15% drop on rising expenses mainly associated with Switch marketing and game development.

It’s a classic mean reversion I’ve written about for similar results recently, a dip towards more normalized spending after two years of substantial boosts from the pandemic. While COVID and its variants are still present, there are more people vaccinated which means they are turning to other types of entertainment outside the house. That is, when they can afford it. People’s hard-earned cash isn’t going as far lately as many countries suffer from the worst inflation in decades.

There’s also the more technical element of yen depreciation, which ends up hurting Japanese companies whose primary business is conducted overseas. This leads into Nintendo’s latest regional breakout which saw 44% from The Americas, a number consistent with last year’s split. Then it’s Europe at 26%, up from 24%. It follows that Japan now represents only 20% of Nintendo’s business, down from 22%. This means that only one-fifth of its revenue is gained locally, meaning a weaker yen has a significant effect on its sales.

Now I’ll dig into product categories underlying Nintendo’s quarterly output. Software and related content comprised 56% of Q1 revenue, up from 53%. It follows that Switch hardware made up the remaining 44%, down compared to the 47% a year ago. What this indicates is hardware is losing ground at a more rapid pace than software, as the latter benefits greatly from ongoing events or downloadable content for legacy titles. If it wasn’t for the Switch OLED model, this skew would be even more towards software.

There are two charts in the below gallery showing the trend of quarterly revenue and profit, where we see the declined compared to recent years however still trending above that from fiscal 2019. Then there’s the two charts which smooth out these results by showing trailing 12-month figures, as I add up the latest four quarters. Trailing annual revenue is right near $13 billion for Nintendo, severely hampered by the yen weakness when converted to dollars. Operating income over the last year is $4.43 billion. This helps keep the overall business in context, rather than focusing strictly on shorter-term movement.

Using these recent annual figures, I’d like to compare Nintendo’s results to industry peers in Tencent, Sony and Microsoft. I will preface this by saying the conversion from yen is really taking a toll on Nintendo and Sony right now. Tencent’s $33 billion in annual gaming revenue is untouchable, though it’s the only one of these that hasn’t reported this quarter and I expect it could decline. Sony’s $21 billion from PlayStation is up next, then Microsoft’s Xbox revenue of $16.22 billion comes in third. If Microsoft’s accounted for Activision Blizzard, which it won’t until next year, it would rival Sony’s output. Which means Nintendo’s revenue is on the lower end at $13 billion. However, Nintendo’s $4.43 billion in operating profit over the last 12 months is higher than PlayStation’s $2.44 billion.

Focusing now on Nintendo’s console business, Switch shipped 3.43 million units globally during the quarter. That’s down 23% from the 4.45 million in Q1 of fiscal 2022. It’s the lowest number of Switch hardware shipments since 3.28 million in January to March 2020.

The base model felt the most precipitous drop, moving down 60% to 1.32 million of the quarterly total. Switch Lite posted a 48% dip, shipping 590K. Which means the Switch OLED model was the best-selling in the family during the last three months, moving 1.52 million boxes. That brings the lifetime total of just Switch OLED to 7.32 million since October 2021. This was precisely Nintendo’s intention, to shift buyers towards the fancy, higher-priced OLED.

Overall, Switch lifetime shipments now total 111.08 million. Compare that to lifetime sales of 89 million at this same time in calendar 2021. In an ironic twist, Switch is now the third home console AND the third portable device to pass the 110 million mark. PlayStation 2 and PlayStation 4 reached 155 million and 117 million, respectively. Separately, on the handheld side, Nintendo’s own Nintendo DS achieved 154 million while Game Boy/Game Boy Color settled at almost 119 million. For now, the PlayStation 4 is in the Switch’s sights, especially since Sony stopped reporting its prior generation hardware figures just this quarter.

As referenced in an earlier slide, sell-through to consumers for the quarter ending June declined for the second year in a row. While the company didn’t specify the exact amount, the trend-line is clear at this point in the life cycle. Especially given the tremendous impact from Animal Crossing: New Horizons back in March 2020, when sell-through of Switch consoles peaked.

Even amidst lower global hardware sales, Switch is still holding up among its counterparts in its biggest market. That’s according to the Q2 2022 report from industry tracking firm The NPD Group, an often cited source here at the site. Switch was the best-selling console in the U.S. during April to June when measured by units, and is still the year’s best-seller by this metric as I wrote earlier in the month. This dynamic makes sense given the Switch’s more attractive pricing and consistent availability at retail, plus supply challenges having an outsized effect on new generation consoles.

Switching over to Nintendo’s software sales for the quarter, it’s a bit brighter than its hardware counterpart. In that it didn’t see as big a decline from a unit standpoint.

Total game shipments in the period ending June declined to 41.4 million, down 9% from the prior year’s 45.29 million. Namely because it was a quiet time for those million-sellers: only four games sold this amount in the period alone, and none of them were from third parties. Compare that to 9 this time a year ago, 7 from Nintendo and the remainder from external partners. So, while there are select titles hitting this threshold, there were less of them amidst a sparse release calendar.

Because of this, lifetime software unit sales for Switch reached 863.59 million. That’s up from 892.18 million back in March, and 587.12 million back in June 2021. Might it cross 900 million by September? (Yes.)

Nintendo decided to kick off the summer with two sports titles during the three months ending June, launching both Nintendo Switch Sports and Mario Strikers: Battle League.

Nintendo Switch Sports scored 4.84 million shipments in its debut quarter. It’s tricky to compare this to prior mainline Sports releases, the last major one being Wii Sports Club in 2014, itself a remake of the original 2006 Wii Sports which launched alongside the ever-popular Wii console. There’s also Wii Sports Resort that released in 2009 at 1.61 million. We could also compare to Wii Fit, which started at 3.6 million. Any way you slice it, it’s a strong start to a title Nintendo expects could keep up momentum over time as more content rolls out.

Mario Strikers: Battle League spent less time on sale after its mid-June launch, shipping 1.91 million copies since. It’s the first mainline Mario Strikers title in 15 years, back when Mario Strikers Charged accumulated 1.71 million in its first quarter. That puts this latest game slightly higher than its predecessor’s initial sales.

The last flagship Switch game of the quarter was Fire Emblem Warriors: Three Hopes. This one hit market during the final week of June and is co-published by Koei Tecmo. Nintendo hasn’t publicly shared any results for it just yet.

As for earlier games, Kirby and the Forgotten Land continues its expansion, which is natural for Kirby. It’s scooping up sales left and right, amassing 4.53 million units to date after selling-in another 1.88 million in fiscal Q1. During its first 15 weeks on sale, it’s already sold-through over 4 million copies. That’s the best cumulative sales to consumers ever for the series, already outpacing the lifetime total of 2018’s Kirby Star Allies.

The best-selling first party Switch game list is unchanged at the top. Mario Kart 8, of course, somehow sold another 1.48 million to bring its lifetime total past the 46 million mark, settling at 46.82 million. Animal Crossing: New Horizons is at 39.38 million, while Super Smash Bros. Ultimate fought up to 28.82 million.

Fan favorite Ring Fit Adventure remains in the Top 10 best-selling on the platform, moving 450K units up to 14.54 million. It’s creeping up on a couple Pokémon games, I’d wager it can move into 8th place on the lifetime Switch sellers list by year-end.

Speaking of Pokémon, for 2022 to date in the U.S., Pokémon: Legends Arceus remains on the best-selling premium list, currently catching the third spot as of June. That’s according to The NPD Group, and it doesn’t even include the game’s digital portion. The aforementioned Kirby and the Forgotten Land and Mario Kart 8 are presently 8th and 9th, respectively.

Another growth avenue for Nintendo last quarter was digital sales of software, rising 16% to $679 million. That comes out to roughly 29% of its total revenue. Nintendo also shared that more than half of software sales are now digital, at 53% of the total. This is up from 47% last year, partially due to downloadable content like Animal Crossing: New Horizons Happy Home Paradise and the Nintendo Switch Online + Expansion Pack offering.

Unfortunately, there’s no new data on Nintendo Switch Online subscription count. The most recent update from the company was 32 million in September 2021. Management did state that sales from this online service are “showing growth,” just didn’t indicate by how much.

And as we’ve seen many times before, Nintendo’s engagement stats are lacking. Its “Annual Playing Users” metric is now up to 104 million, compared to 102 million last quarter. To me, this doesn’t mean much other than people that buy a Switch turn it on at least once in the last 12 months. Not the most descriptive of metrics.

It’s a decent start to the new fiscal year for Nintendo, seeing drops where expected on the hardware side and maintaining solid results for both new games and ongoing software spending. It’s too early for the forecast to change, even given the amount of uncertainty that exists on the supply side plus game release dates moving around soon.

“Due to delays in the procurement of components such as semiconductors this year, we have not been able to conduct production as planned.” management said. “However, we expect procurement to gradually improve from late summer towards autumn, giving us a clearer outlook regarding production for the remaining calendar year. In preparation for the holiday season, we will leverage appropriate means of shipment, and work to deliver as many Nintendo Switch systems as possible to
consumers in every region.”

As a quick reminder on its guidance, Nintendo anticipates sales will decline in the single digits this fiscal year to roughly $12.34 billion at the current exchange rate, a figure in dollars that could improve if the yen improves. Operating profit is expected to take a bigger hit, dipping 16% to under $3.9 billion. Which would be the lowest result since the pandemic begin, yet still above levels prior to that point.

It’s on the conservative side, which is where I’m at as well. When there’s this many unknowns, both at a macro level and within the games industry, I tend to be cautious. I think it’s prudent for executives to do the same, especially for a company like Nintendo which isn’t as diversified as other consumer technology peers.

I continue to believe there won’t be any substantial new Switch iterations over the next few quarters. Instead, Nintendo should be working more on a successor than a model change. As for units, I’m reiterating my forecast of 20 million to 21 million which is a bit lower than Nintendo’s 21 million guidance. Right now, I’m slightly more bearish than management.

Another portion that Nintendo left unchanged is the guidance of 210 million software units selling in the year ending March 2023. Nintendo reiterated that stance, which I lean towards being a bit high unless a couple key titles hit market in this time frame.

Short term Xenoblade Chronicles 3 launch a few days back. Kirby’s Dream Buffet is a smaller title slated sometime this summer. Next up, there’s a pair of “third in the series” entries in Splatoon 3 and Bayonetta 3, launching in September and October respectively. Out of these, I’m way upbeat on the latter, the first mainline Bayonetta game since 2014.

I expect Pokémon Scarlet and Pokémon Violet, which are introducing all new pocket monsters, could potentially break records for early sales for the franchise on Switch and overall upon debuting in November. Granted, there’s been a lot of Pokémon lately. That won’t stop the series from selling, especially when there’s a new generation to collect.

The Legend of Zelda is the proverbial, hm.. wild card of the bunch. Will there be a new version of something like Windwaker soon? Might Nintendo put out a Switch version of Twilight Princess? That would be well and good, and certainly attract demand. It really comes down to whether the fabled Breath of the Wild sequel hits by March 2023. At least for now, it remains listed as Spring 2023 in Nintendo’s reporting. If I was to guess, I’m mildly confident it’s out this fiscal year.

Finally, there’s also Advance Wars 1+2: Re-Boot Camp and Metroid Prime 4. Both stayed as to-be-announced in Nintendo’s presentation. If anything, I’d wager the former has a better chance of hitting this fiscal year because it was scheduled to be out already. I don’t see the latter until the back half of calendar 2023, the earliest.

With its latest hardware sales milestone and a lot of good games before its life cycle ends, it’s still an exciting time to be a Switch owner. Especially for fans of JRPGs, sports games and Pokémon. Investors may be wearier, though shouldn’t let declines from all-time highs distract from Nintendo still being in its best financial shape since the Wii era.

Thanks for visiting the site and checking out this analysis. Feel free to drop a comment here or on social media. Enjoy the remainder of earnings season everyone!

Note: Comparisons are year-over-year unless otherwise mentioned. Exchange rate is based on reported average conversion: US $1 to ¥129.66.

Sources: Company Investor Relations Websites, The NPD Group.

-Dom