Tag: NPD Group

Madden Scores & Fire Emblem Soars in July’s Monthly U.S. Game Sales Report

DomsPlaying
Madden is a perennial sales Giant

The summer is cooling off here in the States, which means the video games sales charts are starting to heat up. Each year, Electronic Arts’ football franchise Madden effectively kicks off a packed release schedule for the early Fall leading into the holiday season. As it stands, yes, we’re now in the trenches (my fellow football fans know).

The latest installment Madden NFL 20 released a bit earlier than usual, which means it just quarterback snuck into The NPD Group’s tracking period for July (which ran from July 7th to August 3rd). Its widespread brand recognition led to scoring the top spot in last month’s combined sales rankings, as measured by total dollar sales generated. Amazingly, this is the 20th *consecutive* annual Madden game that’s earned the overall lead in its release month, a staggering accomplishment for the team at the major U.S. publisher.

Keep in mind, its statistics count only a couple days on sale.

Madden NFL 20 laid out its competition to instantly become 8th best-selling game for the entirety of 2019 to date. This speaks to the strength of the franchise amidst a broad national audience, plus the sheer popularity of football as a sport domestically. Electronic Arts recently announced strong final week pre-orders plus that “well over half” of launch sales were digital, marking the first time digital has outpaced retail in the series’ long history. However, what the company didn’t share is even more intriguing. Does this mean that total sales are lower compared to last year? It’s possible this is the case, even if its launch sales are solid compared to non-Madden titles.

Anyone that tracks these things knows the franchise is a perennial winner in the U.S. marker. Early indications prove it will once again likely achieve Top 5 status when 2019 wraps up its final quarter.

All that said, I’d argue the most impressive story of July’s charts and really 2019 as a whole continues to be Nintendo. Six of the Top 10 games last month are available on its Switch hybrid hardware. The standouts being a scorching debut for Fire Emblem: Three Houses, which secured the 2nd overall spot, and a somewhat surprise seller in Team Ninja’s Marvel Ultimate Alliance 3: The Black Order as it assembled enough cash to reach its #4 ranking.

Fire Emblem: Three Houses achieved the best single launch month in Fire Emblem history, as the latest strategy JRPG mash-up outsold the previous leader: 2017’s Fire Emblem: Shadows of Valentia.

Its fantastic release strength now makes Three Houses the 2nd top-selling title in the series ever domestically, behind only Fire Emblem: Awakening from 2012. Yes. Ever. With only a month of tracking. This is incredible, and a testament to its now global appeal. Which I’ll partly attribute to characters being included in the successful Super Smash Bros. mash-up fighting games, as its latest release from December is still charting.

I know I shouldn’t be shocked a game featuring the Avengers and related superheroes would sell so well. Still, Marvel Ultimate Alliance 3: The Black Order is a Nintendo Switch exclusive which means only a segment of the market can purchase it. And purchase it, that segment did. Which makes its Top 4 position that much more notable. Previously, its predecessor grabbed the #7 spot at launch in September 2009. Knowing the demand for Avengers right now is sky high, I’m curious to know how well the multi-platform Marvel’s Avengers from Square Enix will fare when it’s out in May 2020. (I’d imagine Marvel will still be popular then. This is the expert analysis you’ve come to expect, I know.)

It’s worth noting that Switch results are actually even crazier than it seems initially. Nintendo doesn’t share digital in the context of NPD charts. Which means physical alone boosted these games up the list. Combined sales are even higher! I was quite bullish on Fire Emblem: Three Houses from jump, though admittedly underestimated the strength of Marvel Ultimate Alliance 3: The Black Order. ure Nintendo’s competitors aren’t producing many exclusives right now due to respective console cycles coming to a close, though it’s still eye-catching just how well the Japanese game maker is doing in the States as both a hardware maker and publishing partner.

One notable absence for July is Wolfenstein: Youngblood, though Bethesda Softworks does not share digital split. And it’s a less expensive title than competitors, which means it naturally generated less dollar sales. I anticipated this would happen, though there still was a slight chance it could slip into the Top 20. Bethesda still has DOOM Eternal upcoming in November as its flagship autumn title.

It only makes, hm.. cents to chat about the overall market now after hitting on individual names.

Spending in the U.S. during July actually increased slightly since this time last year, to $762 million. Though under 1%, so essentially flat. Which I’d argue is a mild surprise, due to the major slowdown in hardware sales off 22% and accessories/controllers dipping 12%. Consumer spending on software made up the difference, accelerating 34%. Though the caveat I’d offer is Madden did move up to the July time frame compared to debuting during the August sales period in 2018.

Nintendo Switch was once again the leading console by dollar sales generated, a spot which it’s held consecutively on a monthly basis since the holiday season. It’s the only piece of hardware to see gains since this time last year, as its competitors declined due to long-in-the-tooth cycles. Same as June, it’s also the #1 seller for 2019 to date.

This portion is the most predictable of all, as Switch continues to churn out major releases on a then legacy titles show solid momentum due to them appealing to a variety of audience slices especially the younger demographic. With a new model boasting improved battery life now hitting shelves and its Switch Lite iteration shipping in September, I can’t see a case where it isn’t the leading seller every month for the foreseeable future.

Quick update on software this year so far. Mortal Kombat 11 continues its dominance atop the chart, making it yet again the best-selling game of 2019. In fact, it’s now behind only Mortal Kombat X (2015) within the franchise overall for lifetime domestic sales. Another impressive stat is that MK11 now occupies the 5th spot on the fighting game genre all-time chart. NetherRealm Studio’s hit likely won’t retain the top spot once next month rolls around, though its legs since April release means it has been on quite a.. hm, run. I anticipate it will remain in the Top 6 through year-end.

Taking the year-to-date chart as a whole, it’s very similar to June. The exceptions being Red Dead Redemption 2 moving up to #7 and Madden NFL 20 slotting in at the 8th spot. These moves pushed Sekiro: Shadows Die Twice out of the Top 10, though From Software’s latest game is still doing extremely well with its 3.8 million units sold globally since February.

Now then. Let’s look at the full multi-platform list itself then the year’s best sellers, before our final whistle.

Top-Selling Games of July 2019 (Physical & Digital Dollar Sales):

  1. Madden NFL 20^
  2. Fire Emblem: Three Houses*
  3. Super Mario Maker 2*
  4. Marvel Ultimate Alliance 3: The Black Order*
  5. Minecraft#
  6. Grand Theft Auto V
  7. Super Smash Bros. Ultimate*
  8. Mortal Kombat 11
  9. Mario Kart 8*
  10. The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild*
  11. Marvel’s Spider-Man
  12. Tom Clancy’s Rainbow 6: Siege
  13. Call of Duty: Black Ops IIII^
  14. Crash Team Racing: Nitro Fueled
  15. Red Dead Redemption 2
  16. Tom Clancy’s The Division 2^
  17. MLB 19 The Show
  18. New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe*
  19. NBA 2K 19
  20. Assassin’s Creed: Odyssey

Top-Selling Games of 2019 (Year to Date):

  1. Mortal Kombat 11
  2. Kingdom Hearts 3
  3. Tom Clancy’s The Division 2^
  4. Anthem^
  5. Resident Evil 2 Remake
  6. Super Smash Bros. Ultimate*
  7. Red Dead Redemption 2
  8. Madden NFL 20^
  9. Days Gone
  10. MLB The Show 19

^Digital PC Sales Not Included, *Digital Sales Not Included, #Digital Sales on Consoles Included

If you are interested in individual platform results, I highly recommend perusing NPD Group analyst Mat Piscatella’s Twitter thread and corresponding video coverage. It’s one of the main sources here, plus the never-ending knowledge of yours truly. Humble, I know.

Though in all seriousness thanks for stopping by to look at the charts and hear some context surrounding the month’s results. I’ll be back soon with more reviews and sales talk, it will pick up the pace from here!

Sources: The NPD Group, GamesPress, Nintendo, Electronic Arts, Warner Bros. Interactive Entertainment.

-Dom

Analysis of Destiny’s Release Timeline, And How Will Rise of Iron Fare?

DomsPlaying

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Publisher Activision-Blizzard ($ATVI) released its shared-world space shooter Destiny back in September 2014, and the game has been on an interesting timeline ever since.

Developed by Bungie, best known for creating the early games in the Halo series, the genre-bending title started strong out of the gate by racking up around $325 million in sales (sold-through to consumers) in its first week. It overcame a well-documented difficult development cycle and mixed critical reception to become one of the most financially successful launches in the history of gaming.

In the two years since, it has garnered both praise and critique from critics and gamers alike for its mix of online elements, top-rate FPS mechanics and (most recently) cosmetic micro-transations in which players can buy in-game items for real-world dollars. Also, Activision has offered incremental paid expansions in the form of “content drops” by the names of The Dark Below, House of Wolves, The Taken King and finally Rise of Iron which is slated for release tomorrow.

 

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Each of these expansions built on (lots would say improved) the original game as Bungie updated its economy and systems plus offered new missions and raids (multi-person, complex quests with big rewards), but also costs consumers money as gamers were charged an additional fee on top of the base game. Whether you are a fan of this trajectory or not, the game has amassed a huge following with around 30 million registered users who spend an average of 3 hours playing even years later.

To track its progress individually and overall within Activision as a whole, below I’ll offer a handful of indicators. First is an overview of the firm’s stock price since Destiny’s original release two years back. You’ll see its price in September 2014 was $23.73, and it’s now grown to around $44 per share this week. During this time, the publisher’s market value has increased by $10.9 billion.

 

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It’s true that there are a variety of factors that go into a firm’s share price, among them the broader economy, performance of additional products (Activision-Blizzard also publishes popular games such as Call of Duty, World of Warcraft and Overwatch), mergers such as the acquisition of King Digital and general investor sentiment, but Destiny is a key part of the publisher’s portfolio especially when it comes to generating recurring revenue. The content packs I mentioned before create a revenue stream similar to a subscription-based title like WoW, as opposed to say Overwatch where new characters and maps are offered for free and the only additional revenue comes from cosmetic items.

 

Speaking of recurring revenue, Activision as a business unit within the overall company has found a way to generate ongoing sales via its continued updates for Destiny. A snapshot below shows the unit’s revenue numbers alongside each corresponding Destiny release. General theme is that other than the year-end holidays, a Destiny release over the past two years has meant slightly more revenue than “non-Destiny” quarters. Again, caveat is that the publisher produces other games, of course, but it’s interesting to see sales aligned with an estimate time frame of when each expansion came out.

 

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Lastly, I’ve tracked results in the U.S. games market of the title and its expansions according to the NPD Group, a data provider for the games industry. Upon release, it was the #1 selling game in September 2014 followed by #5 in October 2014. During some of its expansions, it reemerged in the Top 10 especially during Destiny: The Taken King, as this was billed as the largest expansion yet and had the most content. Note that this only tracks the U.S. physical games market prior to a couple months back, but it gives a good sense for how games perform at release and with updated content throughout their life cycles. Destiny is one of the few titles in recent memory that has been a Top Ten regular on-and-off since late 2014.

 

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With Destiny: Rise of Iron expansion planned for release tomorrow, how will it fare? Can it again capture lapsed players (including myself) and provide revenue stability? When it comes to Rise of Iron, its content is more aligned more with The Taken King than some of the smaller ones, as it offers multiple missions and the first brand new raid activity in a year. With that comes a higher price tag ($29.99) than the smaller releases of course, but this also provides upside for its sales potential.

 

In the absence of a sequel to Destiny, which isn’t expected until next year, and a release date prior to the big blockbuster releases in the same genre like Battlefield 1, Titanfall 2 and Call of Duty: Infinite Warfare, I think that Rise of Iron will perform about as well as The Taken King, with a Top 5 showing in NPD for September and Top 10 for October, and sales momentum into the 3rd quarter plus holidays that will support Activision’s segment revenue. However, I do not expect Rise of Iron to have the legs of The Taken King, as the aforementioned blockbuster titles will take gamers away and then early 2017 titles such as Horizon: Zero Dawn should overshadow it.

 

Do you think that Destiny: Rise of Iron will sell as well as Destiny: The Taken King or somehow the original game? Are you a lapsed player than plans on jumping back into the game this week? I’m interested to hear! Shoot me a note or comment here.

 

Sources: Activision-Blizzard, Bungie, NASDAQ, NPD Group

 

-Dom