Tag: PlayStation

PlayStation Sees Record Sales Alongside Profit Declines & Lower Forecasts in Sony’s FY 2023 Q3 Report

DomsPlaying

It’s already my third major recap of this latest earnings season! Time flies when we’re having fun. And earnings season is the most fun.

Now it’s Sony’s turn. The Japanese consumer tech maker reported fiscal 2023 third quarter results recently and PlayStation set yet another revenue record.

Of course, that’s not the whole story. It’s time to go beyond the “all-time high” headlines to talk about why it’s a really intriguing report and time for Sony’s gaming division, including how profitability is taking a hit even as sales soar, its supplemental material shared some updated stats and executives have again adjusted future expectations.

It’s true Sony’s Gaming & Network Services (G&NS) recorded a best-ever quarterly revenue in the period ending December 2023. Around $10 billion! As it has done a lot recently, driven not just by organic growth due to add-on content and digital downloads, but also continued impact of a weakening yen that works in favor of companies that mainly operate globally.

On the flip side, quarterly operating profit moved down over 25% during the holiday period and is trending towards the worst annual profit of the PlayStation 5 era. There’s both macro and micro reasons for this, including interest rates and high costs alongside weaker internal output and worse hardware losses.

During October to December, Sony shipped 8.7 million PlayStation 5 consoles. While that’s the best single quarter for the console, well above last holiday’s 7.1 million, it’s a million fewer than PlayStation 4 did at the same time and missed estimates enough for them to substantially reduce annual guidance. It’s hard to believe PlayStation 5 is entering the middle phase of its life cycle now trailing its predecessor by a wider margin than even last quarter.

The major story on the software side continues to be Marvel’s Spider-Man 2, which swung above 10 million units sold-through to buyers this month after reaching the 5 million milestone back in October. It carried first-party, and also helped drive Monthly Active Users (MAUs) growth even as PlayStation Plus memberships fell.

These led to management again revising its forecast, this time downward for both revenue and hardware. They even provided a look ahead to next fiscal year, clearly signalling PlayStation 5 annual sales are peaking and will shrink in the back half of its life. As far as games and its tent-pole studios, there are no plans for “major franchise” first-party launches until at least April 2025.

Addressing concerns of profit margins during the company’s conference call, Sony’s President Hiroki Totoki cited at least two reasons: difficulty in cutting prices for hardware and needing to create better opportunities for first-party software on more platforms, including PC.

“How can we, given the situation, put our product lines together to make it affordable, without relying on steep discounts, to reasonably sell them to continue our commercial journey on a sustainable basis?” Totoki said. “I personally think that’s important, and there is an opportunity in that.”

Now into the full rundown of numbers and my current predictions. Buckle up!

Sony’s total revenue moved up 22% in the quarter, to a record amount of $26.19 billion. Operating profit reached $3.24 billion, up 10% and the second highest in its history. Growth here came mainly from Entertainment, Technology & Services (ET&S), Financial Services and G&NS.

Zooming into the gaming division, sales rose 16% to a record $10.1 billion driven by third-party software, downloadable content and exchange rate movement. To illustrate the last point, the impact from yen fluctuation alone was $531 million. This implies “true” dollar sales growth around 10%.

Operating income declined 26% to $602 million because of worsening hardware losses and lower internally-published game sales. Across this most recent three-month period, the PlayStation business represented nearly 40% of Sony’s sales yet under 20% of its profit.

Most product categories within G&NS saw higher quarterly sales, including Hardware up 8% to $3.3 billion or 33% of the total. Add-On Content rose 33% to $2.44 billion, accounting for a 24% slice. Digital Software jumped up 16% to almost $2 billion, at 20% of the total. Physical Software and Other Software both declined, 7% and 30% respectively.

Expanding to the latest annualized numbers gives us a broader sense of where the business is at right now. For revenue, it’s the best it’s ever been at $29.65 billion. Compare that to last year’s $22.62 billion. On the other hand, PlayStation currently has the lowest trailing 12-month profit since Fiscal 2017. It’s at $1.56 billion, compared to well over $2 billion a year back. The size of this deterioration is truly evident when you view the the second chart in the above gallery.

Seeing as the “Big Three” have now all reported this season, it’s a good time to revisit our industry comparison. Using annual numbers, Sony’s massive $29.65 billion is tops across all players, above even Tencent’s $26 billion with the caveat that the Chinese internet conglomerate doesn’t report until next month. Microsoft’s $18.13 billion now includes Activision Blizzard, and Nintendo currently stacks up to roughly $13 billion.

Again I’ll mention that while Sony’s sales are soaring, PlayStation is not nearly as profitable as the likes of Nintendo which has more than twice as much operating profit (over $4 billion) on less than half the sales. And it’s not like this is a recent phenomenon. Even during Switch’s fourth fiscal year, a similar time period, Nintendo’s margins were better.

Want more stats? Well, either way, you’ll get them.

Taking the latest PlayStation 5 hardware shipments into account, its lifetime figure is now at 54.8 million. As you’ll see in the above launch-aligned chart, its predecessor was at 57.3 million at this time in the cycle. Not only that, the gap between the two is widening at the exact time when PlayStation 5 is hitting a plateau.

As for comparisons outside of Sony, the PlayStation 5 is steadily approaching the 58 million lifetime sales territory of Microsoft’s Xbox One and will likely surpass it by this fiscal year’s end in March. Next up will be Nintendo Entertainment System (NES) at almost 62 million, still a fair ways off.

Out of those 54.8 million shipped to market, Sony announced back in December that PlayStation 5 reached 50 million sold-through to consumers.

Unit sales for PlayStation software moved up slightly from 86.5 million this time last year to 89.7 million, an increase of 4%. The skew was much more towards those published externally, given that only 16.2 million or 18% were first-party games this time versus 24%, at 20.8 million, during last year’s fiscal Q3.

Most of first-party’s movement was due to Insomniac’s Marvel’s Spider-Man series, which has now surpassed a healthy 50 million units sold-through in aggregate, inclusive of sales from PC since the first entry back in 2018.

Engagement across PlayStation Network hit an impressive 123 million MAUs in the quarter ending December, an all-time high up from last year’s 112 million. The influx of active users, driven not just by Sony’s titles but also external free-to-play offerings like Fortnite, led to 13% more hours played across the ecosystem.

While the company hasn’t shared PlayStation Plus membership figures since the end of last fiscal year, management’s prepared remarks did point out that subscriptions declined since last year though service revenue did increase.

“Regarding network services, despite the impact of a slight year-on-year decrease in the number of PlayStation Plus subscribers, revenue increased 11% year-on-year,” the remarks said. “Mainly due to the impacts of a further shift to premium services and price revisions.”

Essentially, dollar sales from PlayStation Plus are going up for now because of users going to the premium tiers and the price increases the company has instituted. From my perspective, I would add that’s not necessarily sustainable and I see this as more of a temporary dynamic. It’s known that gaming subscription services are stagnating, and this is one such example.

Another area lacking in the report was any shipment figures for Sony’s latest product launch in PlayStation Portal, which hit market during November 2023. Anecdotally, it seems like supply was highly controlled. While we don’t know specifics, we can infer from category results. The segment called Others, which covers peripherals and PlayStation VR2, jumped up 60% to $698 million in Q3. While still a small slice at 7% of sales, that’s a sizeable bump I’d wager was caused directly by Portal.

When taking the full Q3 report into consideration, it shows PlayStation’s position as one of strength on the sales side, partially due to the yen, and an ongoing struggle for profit growth amidst ballooning development and hardware costs. Yes, there’s general inflation and interest rate impact. It’s also the case that rapid-paced triple-A game development and maintaining hardware pricing as a console ages is not sustainable.

The good news is that software demand and player engagement look healthy. It’s just harder to translate these things into higher margins, especially since attracting players to something like PlayStation Plus requires spending money on partnerships or launching first-party games simultaneously into the service, which Sony is not currently doing. At least management is expanding to platforms beyond console, thus spreading risk and boosting audience reach.

Before closing the books on another quarter, I’ll now looking ahead to the finale of Sony’s fiscal year ending March 2024 and beyond.

In a classic flip flop, after revising annual PlayStation revenue guidance up by 5% last quarter, it now backed that off and reduced it by that same amount. This still translates to an increase of 14% up to $29 billion, which would certainly be a record high and lead the industry. I believe this will happen.

Even with the double-digit decline for operating profit this quarter, management reiterated the annual profit guidance of $1.89 billion or up 7%. In order to get there, management said they are reviewing measures to improve profit. One of those could very well be more layoffs. This time, I’m skeptical and I don’t think it’s going to meet this target.

The holiday period was going to be a huge indicator all along for PlayStation 5 unit figures. Now that it missed, management revised annual guidance down from what I called an unrealistic goal of 25 million to now 21 million. This would still be a million above the PlayStation 4’s best year, and I don’t buy it. It’s at 16.4 million so far, leaving 4.6 million to ship between January and March to get there.

Back when Sony was signalling higher, my forecast was also higher. Now I’m at 19.5 million to 20 million, tops, if it can even replicate its predecessor’s success. the only way to get there is if Sony announces aggressive discounting as soon as possible, which again puts a strain on margins.

Finally, executives acknowledged that this will likely be the best year of PlayStation 5 sales, and it’s all downhill from here!

I know what you’re saying: What? Already?! Well, PlayStation 4 peaked in its fourth fiscal year, and PlayStation 5 will be entering its fifth financial year starting this April.

Software is where uncertainty continues, notably for internal studios. There’s no doubt Marvel’s Spider-Man 2 accomplished an incredible feat. That’s the outlier. Plus, the likes of Marvel’s Wolverine, a Ghost of Tsushima sequel and anything from Naughty Dog are at least a year away, if not multiple years.

While The Last of Us Part II Remastered launched on PC and Helldivers 2 is off to a fantastic start, partly because of Steam, Sony didn’t capitalize on the Palworld craze and has a sparse console calendar incoming. I do expect a live service title or two by March 2025, like Concord and Fairgame$, alongside select PC launches to hold software sales over until seeing heavy hitters again.

Development and marketing are as expensive as ever, and projects require increasingly longer timelines to complete. A steady cadence of blockbuster releases is tough if near impossible. That’s a huge part of why we see the current dynamics underlying Sony’s gaming business, and the team will have to navigate these treacherous waters.

As always, I very much appreciate you stopping by for my ongoing earnings coverage. Check in on social media for more and visit soon for future articles. Be well!

Note: Comparisons are year-over-year unless otherwise noted. Exchange rate is based on reported average conversion: US $1 to ¥143.1

Sources: Company Investor Relations Websites, Sony Interactive Entertainment.

-Dom

Circana Reports U.S. Games Industry Sales Growth in 2023 on Strength of Hogwarts Legacy, Monopoly Go & PlayStation 5

DomsPlaying

That’s right, it’s the final U.S. sales recap of 2023. A bit late, but here we are!

Earlier this month, Circana announced its December and full-year 2023 report on domestic games industry consumer spending. Both respective time frames showed slight growth, thus ending a shaky 12 months on a positive note.

Within the December holiday month, total sales rose a healthy 4% to $7.9 billion. Which means that overall, U.S. consumers spent more than $57 billion across gaming last year, an increase of 1% compared to 2022.

Two segments in Content and Accessories each moved up in the single digits during the year while Hardware output remained virtually flat.

On the premium software side, while Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 did secure the top spot in December, it couldn’t quite sell enough to outpace what ended 2023 as the year’s top seller: Hogwarts Legacy.

This win for Warner Bros marks the first time since Rock Band in 2008 that a game not in Activision Blizzard’s Call of Duty shooter franchise or made by Grand Theft Auto developer Rockstar Games led the yearly list. An exceptional, and mostly unexpected until right up until the final month, result.

A huge portion of the Content category is dictated by mobile where Monopoly Go became the big earner for both December and the year as a whole.

Elsewhere, Sony’s PlayStation 5 generated better supply throughout the year and saw consistent demand plus boasted a system-seller in Marvel’s Spider-Man 2, accelerating the family of consoles to best seller for December and 2023 when measured by both unit sales and dollar revenue.

“A 13% increase in spending on digital premium downloads on console platforms helped offset declines in physical software spending,” wrote Circana’s Mat Piscatella when talking about the year overall. “Growth in PlayStation 5 hardware dollar sales helped offset declines across both Xbox Series and Switch.”

No more time to waste. Read on for my full rundown, numbers and all, then a look ahead to 2024!

United States Games Industry Sales (November 26th to December 30th, 2023)

Across all of gaming during the holiday month, spending rose 4% to $7.91 billion. 2023 sales eclipsed $57.19 billion, up 1%. The largest contributor to growth was full game digital on consoles, highlighting the continued buyer shift towards downloads rather than retail purchases.

The biggest category of Content rose 3% in December to $5.73 billion, or 72% of the total which is slightly below the 73% a year ago. In aggregate across all of 2023, it moved up 1% to $47.97 billion. That’s an 84% contribution, same as 2022.

Mobile generated yet another month of gains, this time seeing spending increase 2.7% over the same time last year. All of the Top 10 earners experienced higher contributions than they did during November. December’s leading games were, in order of revenue, Monopoly Go, Royal Match, Roblox, Candy Crush Saga and Clash of Clans.

The report wasn’t specific about mobile’s contribution to the total 12 month period, however it did outline 2023’s Top 10 games by sales, which I’ve listed in full later in the article. Scopely’s Monopoly Go was the winner, followed by Candy Crush Saga and Roblox.

December’s premium software ranks showcased a number of familiar titles that launched in or before the month, with the only new game being Ubisoft’s Avatar: Frontiers of Pandora debuting in the 6th spot. Which I’d call quite a good start for the year’s last major AAA release.

As expected, Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 was the holiday month’s best seller. Next up was Super Mario Bros. Wonder moving up a few spots to 2nd, even without digital sales counted. It’s yet another fantastic showing for Nintendo, just ahead of Electronic Arts’ Madden NFL 24 rounding out the Top 3 as the football season entered its home stretch.

Expanding to 2023 as a whole, winner Hogwarts Legacy was the predominant sales story both domestically and around the globe. In addition to leading the annual U.S. chart, publisher Warner Bros claimed it was the world’s best-selling premium game. It generated well over a billion dollars in its first three months, moved 2 million copies globally in December alone and ending the year at 22 million. It’s now above 24 million.

Activision Blizzard claimed three titles in the Top 7, including two Call of Duty iterations in addition to Diablo IV. While technically a down year for the latest Call of Duty installment, this outcome shows the franchise is still among the top commercial successes, plus reveals that players didn’t need to move to the latest version in order to spend big money.

After Madden NFL 24 in third, Marvel’s Spider-Man 2 and The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom, both platform exclusives, rounded out the year’s Top 5. Which makes sense for Insomniac Games’ Spider-Man sequel after its record-breaking start. This was especially impressive for Tears of the Kingdom since it’s based solely on retail. That’s right, it was among the year’s five best sellers considering only boxes sold in stores. When these days digital often accounts for half of a title’s units, if not more, this was a momentous feat for Nintendo.

Another fantastic trend was the commercial success of fighting games as both Mortal Kombat 1 from Warner Bros and Capcom’s Street Fighter 6 charted at #8 and #17 respectively. On the Xbox side, Bethesda’s Starfield, while being on Game Pass and seeing a somewhat soured sentiment since the September launch, landed just outside the Top 10 in 11th place.

In addition to the charts based on revenue, Circana shared the most played games of December by Monthly Active Users (MAUs) from each major platform. Fortnite, Call of Duty and, of course, Grand Theft Auto V led on PlayStation and Xbox while Lethal Company, The Finals and Counter-Strike Go 2 saw the biggest engagement on Steam. Huge movers into the Top 10 included PowerWash Simulator at #9 on PlayStation and Goat Simulator at #7 on Xbox. Apparently, lots of people like doing chores or acting a fool in their spare time!

Check below for December and 2023 best seller lists, including the annual Top 10 mobile earners.

Top-Selling Premium Games of December 2023, U.S. (Physical & Digital Dollar Sales):

  1. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3
  2. Super Mario Bros. Wonder*
  3. Madden NFL 24
  4. Hogwarts Legacy
  5. Marvel’s Spider-Man 2
  6. Avatar: Frontiers of Pandora
  7. EA Sports FC 24
  8. Mortal Kombat 1
  9. NBA 2K24*
  10. Mario Kart 8*
  11. Super Mario RPG Remake*
  12. Sonic Superstars
  13. Minecraft
  14. God of War Ragnarök
  15. Star Wars Jedi Survivor
  16. Elden Ring
  17. The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom*
  18. Just Dance 2024 Edition
  19. Assassin’s Creed Mirage
  20. UFC 5

Top-Selling Premium Games of 2023, U.S. (Physical & Digital Dollar Sales):

  1. Hogwarts Legacy
  2. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3
  3. Madden NFL 24
  4. Marvel’s Spider-Man 2
  5. The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom*
  6. Diablo IV
  7. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2
  8. Mortal Kombat 1
  9. Star Wars Jedi Survivor
  10. EA Sports FC 24
  11. Starfield
  12. Super Mario Bros. Wonder*
  13. Resident Evil 4 Remake
  14. MLB The Show 23^
  15. Dead Island 2
  16. Final Fantasy XVI
  17. Street Fighter 6
  18. Elden Ring
  19. Mario Kart 8*
  20. Minecraft

Top-Selling Mobile Games of 2023, U.S. (Revenue):

  1. Monopoly Go
  2. Candy Crush Saga
  3. Roblox
  4. Royal Match
  5. Coin Master
  6. Pokémon Go
  7. Gardenscapes
  8. Jackpot Party Casino Slots
  9. Township
  10. Evony

Swapping over to the Hardware category, this one gained 4% in December to almost $1.6 billion.

Circana’s report pointed out that PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S generated revenue growth during the final month of 2023, while Nintendo Switch saw a double-digit percentage decline. That’s good news for Microsoft’s platform, even if it was spurred on by temporary price reductions. The last part there for Nintendo was mostly anticipated for the aging device, which is long past market saturation.

There’s no indication if the growth for either PlayStation or Xbox was in the double digits, however I’d imagine it was in the single digits since the report probably would have said so otherwise.

Topping the hardware list for December by units and dollars was, yet again, Sony’s PlayStation 5. I believe it won every month of 2023 except for May, when Nintendo Switch led on the heels of Tears of the Kingdom’s launch. In fact, Sony as a manufacturer generated a single month dollar sales all-time high in December, outpacing the prior record holder of December 2022.

Intriguingly, Nintendo Switch secured second place in December by units and revenue despite Xbox’s growth and the below comment from Circana.

“Xbox Series X|S set a new lifetime high in U.S. unit sales during the month of December,” Piscatella said on social media, documenting a new milestone for Microsoft’s latest console family. “The previous unit sales high for Xbox Series X|S was set in December 2021.”

After spending most of the year in the red, the Hardware segment’s solid holiday result moved it up to flat for the year at $6.59 billion in consumer buying.

PlayStation 5 topped the annual list by units and dollars. In fact, it was the only platform that gained ground when compared to 2022. Nintendo Switch was again the runner-up by both measures, as both Switch and Xbox Series X|S experienced declining annual sales.

Fitting with the general theme I’ve outlined in these write-ups before, 2023 was a banner year for PlayStation while Xbox maintained its inconsistency, although the latter did have certain bright spots in Starfield’s launch in September and holiday sales when discounted.

Accessories is up next, the final and fastest-growing of the three categories during both the holiday and 2023 overall.

During December, spending in this area rose 14% to $584 million. That’s a super healthy boost during the final month as people who purchases new generation consoles are now scooping up peripherals, including special editions and high-end controllers.

United States buyers purchased $2.64 billion accessories during the year, an increase of 4%. The report shouted out growth from game pads in particular.

Fitting that theme, Sony’s PlayStation 5 Dual Sense Edge was the top-earning accessory of 2023, after the premium pad won most months. Its continued momentum shows there’s ample demand for premium priced peripherals as the console cycle matures.

From a domestic spend perspective, 2023 was the definition of up and down, at least compared to the prior year. Exactly half of the twelve months showed spending growth, while all others saw lower sales than their 2022 counterparts. Only two months, May and September, produced double-digit gains.

There was a distinct lack of consistency, even with blockbuster launches and Sony’s concerted effort to produce more PlayStations. A return to hardware supply helped, as did mobile’s better contribution. Still, Nintendo Switch is long in the tooth, subscriptions are stagnant and the most recent Call of Duty installment under-performed.

“Subscription growth has flattened,” Piscatella wrote on Twitter. “And subscription services on console and PC platforms accounts for only 10% of total video game content spending in the U.S.”

In a broader historical sense, over a timeline including before COVID, it was still one of the best years of consumer spending in tracked history. Unfortunately, spending remains in stark comparison to the games industry labor market, which suffered a record number of layoffs globally in 2023 and is only accelerating early this year.

Speaking of 2024, it’s now time for my official predictions. I wrote a whole article with my expectations across the global industry, so here I’ll focus on solely what I expect from the domestic Circana reports before signing off.

In general for spending and where it’s going, I’m leaning towards keeping with my global prediction in that I expect the year to be close to flat with slight upside in the low single digits. That does include my assumption that Nintendo will in fact launch a Switch successor in the final calendar quarter.

Premium software is somewhat tricky considering the release slate is up in the air, especially for PlayStation and Nintendo. I think the rumored Call of Duty: Black Ops Gulf War will bring the franchise back to best seller status.

Beyond the sports games that will always appear, Star Wars Outlaws from Ubisoft will compete for a Top 5 spot if it’s out, as will a mainline Super Mario assuming it launches with Super Switch. Final Fantasy VI Rebirth has a good chance at Top 10 even on a single platform, and Tekken 8 will have a strong showing in the Top 15. I’m not expecting Marvel’s Wolverine to be out and don’t know what the heck to think about Suicide Squad Kill the Justice League, so I’ll say that one misses the Top 20. Just like Skull & Bones.

Hardware will be a juicy category. It’s almost a lock that Super Switch will be out in the back half. I’m on record saying I think adoption will start a tad slower than the original, then pick up over time. Considering Sony’s push to produce PlayStation 5 to make up for lost time during the pandemic, and its at least six to eight month head start, my bet is PlayStation 5 will take home hardware for 2023 with Nintendo as a close second, especially on units.

And, of course, I couldn’t leave without mentioning Palworld! I believe January’s big sales surprise, moving 8 million copies on Steam and topping the Xbox Game Pass list during its debut week, will be among 2024’s most-played titles. Especially if it leaves early access and launches on PlayStation.

That’s officially it for 2023. I highly recommend checking out Piscatella’s Twitter thread for the full Circana report, including individual platform charts and more engagement stats.

Be well, and see you soon for more this year!

Note: Comparisons are year-over-year unless otherwise noted.

*Digital Sales Not Included

^Xbox & Nintendo Digital Sales Not Included

Sources: Circana, Warner Bros.

-Dom

PlayStation Hits Its Best Second Quarter Sales Ever as PS5 & Third Party Games Lift Sony’s FY 2023 Q2 Report

DomsPlaying

No rest for the writer!

Today continues an especially busy stretch of this latest earnings season, as Sony Corp just reported its fiscal 2023 second quarter results today out of Japan.

During this three months ending September, both the firm overall and the PlayStation division experienced revenue growth. And while profitability declined at the company level, the amount earned by Sony’s gaming business moved up double digits.

In fact, PlayStation just generated its best ever Q2 revenue in history.

That marks multiple record-breaking quarters in a row for Sony’s Game & Network Services (G&NS) segment, since Q1 hit its own all-time high as I covered a few months back. This past second quarter saw sales zip past $6 billion for the first time, jumping up more than 30% since last year.

Plus, unlike back in June, PlayStation has bounced back to profit growth this time. I’d argue this is even more substantial than record revenue because it accounts for expenses and really gets to the core of its ongoing health amidst a most turbulent of industries.

Underlying momentum was a higher PlayStation 5 contribution alongside better third party and add-on content performance. On the profit side, signs point to the Bungie acquisition costs being fully recognized, since there’s no longer a mention of the deal. Caveat being, similar to Nintendo, we can’t forget about the yen’s weakness on results for these kinds of Japanese companies that have a ton of overseas sales.

One major component is how PlayStation 5 shipped 4.9 million units between July and September, notably more than this time last year and the corresponding quarter for PlayStation 4. This figure was within management’s forecast, pushing lifetime PlayStation 5 sales to 46.6 million and closing the gap with its predecessor when launch-aligned, as I’ll dig into later.

As for the group’s forecast, executives increased guidance for annual gaming revenue across fiscal 2023 while maintaining guidance for operating income and PlayStation 5 hardware shipments at 25 million, which would be the single best year ever for the brand’s console output.

“We recognize selling more than 25 million PlayStation 5 units this fiscal year remains a challenging goal,” said Chief Financial Officer (CFO) Hiroki Totoki when talking to the media. “It will depend on how sales do in the year-end holiday season. We won’t pursue expanding the PlayStation 5 installment base alone, but will keep profitability in mind.”

Scroll down for a swing through the numbers then a set of my own predictions alongside Sony’s future forecasts.

Total revenue for Sony as a whole rose 3% to $19.6 billion, with the biggest growth contribution from G&NS, Sony Pictures and Music, offset by declines in other areas. However, operating profit at the group level declined 24% to $1.82 billion. This was led by quarterly declines for Financial Services, Imaging & Sensing Solutions and Entertainment, Technology & Services segments.

Focusing strictly on PlayStation during the three months ending September, revenue jumped up 32% to $6.6 billion. That’s an entire third of Sony’s overall business. It’s what I call a massive all-time number, considering last year’s $5 billion or so was also a Q2 record at the time.

A crucial note both in the broader context and at the PlayStation level is the specific impact of currency movement. Out of the $1.6 billion growth, upwards of $410 million is strictly because of foreign exchange rate changes. This helps understand how much of the trajectory is organic, compared to an economic market force like yen weakness.

Reversing its fortune compared to a decline in Q1, operating profit for G&NS moved up an impressive 16% to $340 million. That’s 19% of Sony’s group total. Affecting the plus side were both third party content sales and currency movement, plus there’s no longer any mention of certain acquisition costs that were dragging down profitability. I believe the $3.6 billion purchase of Bungie has been fully recognized now and will no longer affect the bottom line. On the downside, management cited how hardware has produced increased losses, I’d imagine due to higher manufacturing costs.

Checking out product category splits, which are shown in the last graph above, Hardware sales grew a whopping 60% since last year and contributed 30% of PlayStation’s total. The next largest segment at 23% of the pie was Add-On Content, moving up 18% in dollar value. Digital Software produced 39% growth, settling at 21% of the total. In fact, the only product type to decline was Physical Software, down a modest 4%.

Annual PlayStation revenue is tracking towards $28 billion. As you can see in the gallery above, on the revenue graph, this is well above the highest it’s ever been, over a billion more than last quarter. Essentially, if this keeps up, Sony’s gaming unit will have its best year of sales ever. On the other hand, annualized operating profit is at $1.75 billion, which compares more to the late days of the PlayStation 4 life cycle. Still great in a historical context, just not as strong as the past three years or so.

As of this week, the “big three” console manufactures have all reported their latest results. The sole remaining biggest player is Tencent, which will be later this month. Right now for comparison purposes, Sony’s $28 billion is tops for the industry. Even if backing out currency impact, it’s well in the lead. Tencent generated $25 billion as of last quarter, and Microsoft’s Xbox segment saw almost $16 billion (though that’s before accounting for anything from Activision Blizzard). Nintendo’s at $13 billion, albeit with more than twice as much annualized operating profit than PlayStation: $4.2 billion compared to $1.75 billion, respectively.

Heads up: enhanced launch-aligned PlayStation console sales chart is live!

This fancy visual aid gives more context to PlayStation 5’s improving shipment numbers. The console’s 4.9 million units sold-in last quarter is an increase of 48% compared to the 3.3 million in Q2 last year. Plus, it’s 26% higher than the PlayStation 4’s 3.9 million in the corresponding second quarter of fiscal 2016.

It’s the fourth quarter since PlayStation 5’s release in November 2020 that it moved more than 4 million units in a quarter, and one of those was that launch period.

Which means that PlayStation 5, at 46.6 million lifetime, has reversed course and narrowed the gap against its predecessor this quarter. It’s presently only a million units away from reaching PlayStation 4, boosting its trajectory since the supply challenges of yesteryear.

This latest lifetime figure means it’s also passed another gaming device on the all-time best-sellers list. That would be Nintendo’s 1980 handheld the Game & Watch, of course, which ended its tenure at 43.4 million. Next up will be Nintendo’s classic Super NES, which sold 49.1 million globally.

One statistic that Sony didn’t update was console sell-thru to consumers. Probably because it usually waits until a big milestone in order to do so. Earlier this year, the PlayStation 5 reached 40 million sold-thru as of July 16th. I’d bet it’s a bit higher now, maybe in the 45 million range, especially ahead of a system-seller like Marvel’s Spider-Man 2. I don’t see a reason demand would have fallen off.

Digging more into the supplemental stats present in PlayStation’s presentation, full game software unit sales stood at 67.6 million in Q2, up from 62.5 million last year. However, due to a lighter calendar, the proportion of first-party published games was lower, making up 7% of that total as opposed to 11% a year back.

Digital versions accounted for 67% of PlayStation game sales, up from 63% in September 2022. This means that 2 out of every 3 premium games purchased for Sony’s platforms were downloadable.

As for player engagement, Monthly Active Users (MAUs) across all of PlayStation Network totaled 107 million as of September month-end. While this is down a million from the June quarter, it’s up 5 million since last year’s Q2. Management also said that total hours played moved up 4% in the latest three months.

Here is where I’ll continue to lament the loss of PlayStation Plus membership numbers, which Sony stopped reporting earlier this year. It will forever, at least for the foreseeable future, remain cemented at 47.4 million as of March 2023.

It’s been a historic run lately for Sony’s top-line gaming numbers, pumping out multiple quarter’s worth of record revenue and generating more than $6 billion in second quarter sales for the first time. PlayStation is the premier industry player by revenue right now, even if backing out the impact from the yen’s depreciation.

Profitability has certainly been more questionable, partially because of temporary factors like studio investments, acquisition expenses and hardware manufacturing costs. Still, it achieved a double-digit income boost in Q2 on hardware units ramp up and software support from external partners like Electronic Arts and Take-Two Interactive with their respective sports titles, plus something like Diablo IV from Blizzard Entertainment and the Warner Brothers Mortal Kombat 1.

Which is why it’s even more painful to hear about layoffs at various PlayStation studios, including Media Molecule, Visual Arts and Bungie. There continues to be a disconnect between executives and everyone else. It’s not just at Sony, this is just one of the more glaring examples especially as its profitability gets back on track.

Impossible as it is to follow that up, I’ll take a look now at the company’s forecast and make some quick predictions.

The firm revised its fiscal year 2024 PlayStation revenue upwards by 5%. Management now thinks gaming sales will surpass $30 billion when the 12 months end in March 2024, in what would be an astonishing finish and record-breaking result. It then reiterated operating profit guidance of $1.87 billion.

In order to hit the 25 million PlayStation 5 hardware unit target, it still needs to ship almost 17 million units across the next two quarters. 16.8 million to be exact. Even with new PlayStation 5 slim models and the PlayStation Portal, this remains a staggering target that will require an absurd holiday number then a miraculous January to March. For context, the largest holiday season ever for PlayStation 4 was 9.7 million in fiscal 2016, and its largest March quarter was 3.1 million right after launch.

Yea, I’m still not a believer. In that overly ambitious forecast or the over-priced peripheral that is the PlayStation Portal. I’ll keep my same prediction as back in August: 24 million to 24.5 million, leaning more towards the lower end.

With respect to software, note that Marvel’s Spider-Man 2 launched after the three months covered here. Still, Sony shared a sales update for Insomniac Games’ latest open world adventure, selling-thru 5 million copies to consumers after 11 days. It had previously started with the best first 24 hours in PlayStation history, at 2.5 million copies. It’s since fallen behind God of War: Ragnarök at 5.1 million in 3 days, nearly a year ago to the day. The Last of Us: Part 2 moved 4 million copies during its opening 3 days back in June 2020.

All in all, it’s a fantastic launch for Peter Parker and Miles Morales considering the size of the PlayStation 5 install base, clearly bolstering the company’s expectations for the back half of this year.

The final bit of relevant news from Sony’s earnings was a comment around its live service strategy, moving into next fiscal year and beyond. As reported by Video Games Chronicle, CFO Hiroki Totoki mentioned that out of its previously-planned 12 live service titles originally scheduled for launch by end of Fiscal 2025, only half of them are on target. Considering how much time and money Sony is putting into this effort, moving them out is a big deal for its financial future and resource allocation. Personally, I remain skeptical that all of them well actually hit market at any point.

Whew. Well, that’s a wild week of coverage coming to a close. I hope you enjoyed this latest recap. Thanks much for hanging around during this season. I’ll have more coverage here and on social media as another eventful year approaches its inevitable end. Take care!

Note: Comparisons are year-over-year unless otherwise noted. Exchange rate is based on reported average conversion: US $1 to ¥144.4.

Sources: Company Investor Relations Websites, Yahoo Finance, Video Games Chronicle.

-Dom

Remnant II & PlayStation 5 Lead July 2023 Circana U.S. Games Industry Report to Solid Growth

DomsPlaying

As we hang onto the summer as best we can here in the Northern Hemisphere, people are still finding time to pick up and play games.

As it should always be!

Industry tracking firm Circana has posted its July monthly report for spending across the games industry in the United States, and it’s a good one with a few pleasant surprises.

July continued a positive trend of monthly growth lately, bouncing back to a year-over-year increase after last July’s decline. Total monthly spending moved up a modest 1% to nearly $4.2 billion. Circana attributed a boost from digital premium spend outpacing retail and add-on. Plus, subscription spending rose as well.

Gains were seen across two main categories of Video Game Content and Accessories, while Hardware was the only segment to see declining sales. The main drivers were a return to growth, albeit just slightly, for mobile alongside with sizeable launches in premium software, plus a resurgence for various older Call of Duty titles throughout the period.

The biggest July launch of all was a great one for Gunfire Games and Gearbox Publishing with Remnant II. This domestic performance echoes a fantastic global start for the follow-up to 2019’s Remnant: From the Ashes, an impressive run for a soulslike action series that’s become a darling of the industry’s middle tier.

There were two additional new launches charting during July in Nintendo’s Pikmin 4 and Exoprimal from Capcom, as the former outpaced its predecessors while the latter surprised me as I didn’t expect it to land within the Top 20.

For console sales, Sony’s PlayStation 5 can’t be stopped. It won July, just as it did during June and most of 2023 so far, on its way towards becoming the year’s top seller. Supply problems are a distant memory by now, and Sony is capitalizing on demand that’s still going for its latest generation.

“Hardware is no longer comparing to significant supply constraints,” noted Circana’s Mat Piscatella on social media. “[It’s] not likely to see big growth rates as we have over past months. Normalized demand curves may be back.”

Read below as I dig into last months’ numbers and provide predictions for August, the start of the year’s big commercial push!

United States Games Industry Sales (July 2nd, 2023 – August 2nd, 2023)

As mentioned in the intro, consumers spent 1% more on gaming last month than they did a year ago to upwards of $4.19 billion. Last July, sales had dipped almost double digits, meaning the latest result is a welcome return to growth for the industry.

During the year right now, overall spend is also up 1%. The current total is $30.68 billion, boosted by earlier performance in the Hardware category.

The largest contributor of Content rose 2% during July, to $3.72 billion or 89% of the monthly pie. Compare that to 87% of the total last year. Underlying this upward movement was improvement in mobile and key new software releases hitting market.

As I’ve written about over the last year and more, mobile has been lagging other areas of domestic spending. Now, according to Sensor Tower as part of the report, it’s bouncing back. Don’t get too excited, it hasn’t been doing that well. Spending came in less than a percent above July 2022, at 0.2% to be exact. This was partially due to shifts in the top earners, in which Royal Match led the charge, followed up by MONOPOLY GO!, Roblox, Candy Crush Saga and good old Pokémon Go.

Shifting to premium software, three new titles landed among July’s 20 best sellers.

The win for Remnant II parallels its global success, where it sold-thru over a million units to consumers during its first four days. I’d wager it’s well on the way to 2 million and beyond. The first game, as a new brand in an increasingly competitive landscape, took a bit to find its footing yet became a breakout hit at over 2.5 million copies lifetime, a great result for this sort of title that straddles the line between indie and AAA.

Following that up were two titles published by Activision Blizzard in Diablo IV, which I thought could win the month, in second alongside 2022’s Call of Duty Modern Warfare: 2 jumping back into the Top 3.

The next July release to chart was Pikmin 4 at #6. The first party exclusive to the Nintendo Switch began four spots ahead of its predecessor, which debuted in 10th place during August 2013 after hitting Wii U. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, this is yet another example of why I wish Nintendo included digital sales for these U.S. reports. I think Pikmin 4 had a legitimate chance at a Top 5 start, which would be fantastic for a series that’s not one of the company’s flagship offerings.

As much as I was surprised to see Remnant II win July, I might be even more shocked that Capcom’s Exoprimal managed to even chart. The multiplayer only dino-hunting shooter fought to 16th, which I’d call great for the new intellectual property that many critics called bare bones at best. Perhaps I underestimated the desire for fresh ideas, or the fact that people want to shoot dinosaurs. Either way, it’s a fine start.

One more minor story on the charts is how three Call of Duty games finished in the Top 20. Two legacy Black Ops titles, among others, experienced a ton of returning players because Xbox fixed matchmaking for their online components. (Might be related to that small deal Microsoft is finalizing..) It also shows the brand’s sheer dominance that a game from 2012 in Black Ops 2 garnered enough interest to grab July’s 13th spot.

Checking the annual ranks so far, it’s the same exact Top 10 as the first half of 2023 from back in June with minor shifts below that. The sole newcomer is Remnant II immediately at #18 after its strong launch, knocking Marvel’s Spider-Man Miles Morales out of the Top 20.

See below for the month’s and 2023’s full premium charts.

Top-Selling Games of July 2023, U.S., All Platforms (Physical & Digital Dollar Sales):

  1. Remnant II
  2. Diablo IV
  3. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2
  4. Hogwarts Legacy
  5. Final Fantasy XVI
  6. Pikmin 4*
  7. The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom*
  8. Street Fighter 6
  9. Elden Ring
  10. MLB The Show 23^
  11. Star Wars Jedi: Survivor
  12. Mario Kart 8*
  13. Call of Duty: Black Ops 2
  14. Minecraft
  15. FIFA 23
  16. Exoprimal
  17. Marvel’s Spider-Man Miles Morales
  18. Marvel’s Spider-Man
  19. Dead Island 2
  20. Call of Duty: Black Ops 3

Top-Selling Games of 2023 So Far, U.S., All Platforms (Physical & Digital Dollar Sales):

  1. Hogwarts Legacy
  2. The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom*
  3. Diablo IV
  4. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2
  5. Star Wars Jedi: Survivor
  6. Resident Evil 4 Remake
  7. MLB The Show 23^
  8. Dead Island 2
  9. Final Fantasy XVI
  10. Street Fighter 6
  11. FIFA 23
  12. Dead Space Remake
  13. Elden Ring
  14. Madden NFL 23
  15. Mario Kart 8*
  16. Minecraft
  17. The Last of Us Part 1
  18. Remnant II
  19. God of War: Ragnarök
  20. Pokémon Scarlet & Violet*

As for major categories, Hardware was the only to decline as it moved down 19% to $292 million for the month.

All three major platforms across current gen PlayStation, Nintendo and Xbox experienced declines, even with ample supply. This is partially due to a healthy comp last year when inventories were improving. At the time back in July 2022, console sales were up 12%.

It’s to the point where availability has normalized, plus there weren’t any true system-sellers or multi-platform juggernauts in July whereas past and future months contain more enticing software for buyers.

Still, for 2023 at present, Hardware remains trending way up. It’s showing 17% growth to $2.92 billion, compared to last year’s $2.49 billion across the same time frame. Signs point to last month being an anomaly compared to others, seeing as spending gains are in double digit territory through seven months.

PlayStation 5 repeated, as it has often this entire year, as the month’s best-selling console by both dollars and units sold. In fact, other than May and Switch’s win on the back of a new Zelda, Sony’s big box has led every month of 2023 by dollars generated.

Speaking of Switch, it took home second place in July by both metrics. Then, as usual in what’s become somewhat of a meme for sales folks, Xbox was in third. A boring meme, granted, but one nonetheless!

What this tells me the most is supply has officially returned to where it needed to be, just in time for a potential new Switch successor and perhaps enhanced, juiced up models for the PlayStation and Xbox. July was just a quieter month than usual lately on the demand side of things.

Our final sales grouping is Accessories, which grew 8% last month to $173 million. Within products here, Circana attributed the most growth to game pad spending.

Even with this upward contribution from July, spending on Accessories has turned ever-so-slightly negative for 2023 right now because of a big corresponding month last year. Annual sales are presently at $1.25 billion, or 1% lower than a year back.

The best-selling peripheral last month was again the PlayStation 5 DualSense Edge top-end controller. It’s also 2023’s top seller, bolstered by that premium price point.

As its namesake title returned to the top earners on mobile, and The Pokémon Company launched its Pokémon Sleep app, the Pokémon Go Plus started as last month’s 3rd best-selling accessory. In case you were curious, because I know I was, it’s a literal “hand-held” device that uses Bluetooth to track sleep, launch Pokéballs and snatch up those coveted monsters.

Because we gotta catch ‘em all, even when we’re asleep.

July often proves to be the calm before the big budget side of the industry tends to pick up starting in August and beyond. This past month was a good one from a sales perspective, inching up in the low single digits while showcasing series bests like Remnant and Pikmin in great positions. Sony continues its run in both hardware and accessories, seeing PlayStation 5 snatch win after win, ramping up after too much time being held back by outside forces.

Even something like Exoprimal beat my expectations, low as they were.

Before I go, it’s time to put some predictions down on paper. Or online. You know what I mean.

It’s a massive time incoming with the annual Madden launch kicking off the season, among others. The Buffalo Bills’ Josh Allen graces the cover of Madden NFL 24, a premium title which will be August’s top-selling thus continuing the long-running streak of Electronic Arts winning its launch month.

Then we have a lot of juicy titles that can and will hit the top ranks. First, Larian Studios delayed Baldur’s Gate 3 on PlayStation to September, so it’s only PC sales that will be included next month. Even so, it’s already among the highest concurrent players on Steam of all time, so I’m super upbeat on its prospects here. I’m thinking a Top 5 position.

There’s also a new FromSoftware game hitting market in Armored Core 6: Fires of Rubicon. While I don’t think it will get anywhere near the heights of Elden Ring, the knock-on effect of that title’s success combined with FromSoft’s pedigree will greatly benefit an otherwise niche series. Let’s call it Top 10.

As for new franchises, Electronic Arts has another launch in Immortals of Aveum. The fantasy first-person magic shooter is a real crapshoot, and I’m leaning cautious due to its release window around so many established games. I’m looking at a Top 20 debut.

As for re-releases, I’ll keep my rant about Red Dead Redemption hitting PlayStation 4 and Switch short. Just like the Wild West characters it portrays, this game is robbery being priced at 50 bucks. The only “saving grace” here is that Take-Two Interactive doesn’t share digital sales. I really hope it flops. Putting aside personal politics, I expect it won’t chart, and only would if downloads were included.

Even shorter will be my guess for top-selling hardware: PlayStation 5, yet again.

Separately, Piscatella reiterated his “low single digit percent growth forecast” for 2023 overall. It’s certainly on track, with plenty of heavy hitters left. That includes, as those of you following me on Twitter have known for a while, an annualized Call of Duty sequel with the same name as an earlier game in the franchise Modern Warfare 3 set to launch on November 10th. I fully expect it to be the year’s top earner.

Thanks for stopping by for my latest recap. I recommend Piscatella’s full thread for more. I’m sending all my best to those impacted by the devastating fires in Maui. Here is a good list of resources to send relief. Plus, giving love to those on the West Coast with this weekend’s tropical storm.

Be well, stay cool everyone.

Note: Comparisons are year-over-year unless otherwise noted.

*Digital Sales Not Included

^Xbox & Nintendo Switch Digital Sales Not Included

Sources: Circana, Electronic Arts, Gearbox Publishing, Nintendo.

-Dom

PlayStation Generates Record Q1 Revenue in FY 2023 Q1 Despite Slower-Than-Expected PS5 Hardware Shipments

DomsPlaying

As August rolls on, I’m back with my latest and likely last results recap of the season.

Earlier today out of Japan, Sony Corp released its fiscal 2023 first quarter announcement. Both the company at large and the PlayStation business experienced similar dynamics in that revenue grew in the double-digits, yet profitability weakened on higher cost recognition.

Focusing on its largest segment of Game & Network Services (G&NS), it was a gigantic first quarter on the revenue side for the PlayStation business. Quarterly sales reached over $5.6 billion, up 28%, which is a record high. Main contributors to this historic Q1 were better third-party software sales, console growth and exchange rate movement.

Sony saw steady engagement for active users and play hours in the three months ending June. Unfortunately, it no longer reports a key metric on the player side related to subscriptions.

The firm moved 3.3 million PlayStation 5 consoles to retailers in the quarter, pushing lifetime shipments to 41.7 million. That’s 38% higher than last year’s 2.4 million, as supply lines are now shored up and pumping out enough to satiate demand.

While nearly 40% console growth looks great on paper, the company’s management specifically said that PlayStation 5 hardware units came in lower than expected. Which will make working towards its massive annual target a bit harder than originally surmised. Plus, its gap compared to PlayStation 4 sales widened with this latest number.

“We have positioned the accelerated penetration of PlayStation 5 hardware as one of the highest priorities in this fiscal year,” executives wrote in prepared remarks. “And we will try to work steadily to implement necessary measures to achieve our hardware sales target of 25 million units.”

At least yen sales of the hardware segment were among the fastest-growing product categories within this division, behind only that of digital software, as I’ll detail later.

The other main down note for PlayStation during Q1 was profitability. Operating income came in 7% lower than the same time in fiscal 2022 plus it continues to trail one of its main local competitors in Nintendo. While partly due to where each is in their console cycle, it also reflects Sony’s big investment in studios and live services development.

One thing I’ll mention throughout is the impact of the yen’s standing on Sony’s results and my conversions from the local currency into dollars. I’ll point this out when it’s relevant, as there’s a material impact on a global business like this.

See below for more on the individual numbers and a look ahead to the next quarter!

For the overall firm, revenue grew 33% to $16.7 billion. While positive impact came from its gaming and music segments, plus exchange rate, the most substantial bump came from financial services which was affected by an accounting change around its Sony Life insurance business. On the flip side, Sony’s total quarterly operating profit dropped 31% to $1.85 billion, mostly driven by that same financial services segment.

Within the G&NS unit, revenue rose 28% to $5.63 billion. Based on this, gaming currently makes up a third of Sony’s total business. Top-line was bolstered by external partner game sales, additional content buying and improved hardware availability.

Keep in mind, the exchange rate impact was upwards of $300 million. Even accounting for that, PlayStation would boast best-ever Q1 sales. In fact, for more perspective, it’s a sizeable bump from the previous best of first quarter fiscal 2021 when revenue reached $4.5 billion based on the same exchange rate conversion.

Paralleling the overall firm’s scenario, G&NS experienced declining operating profit during the quarter ending June. This number went down 7% to under $360 million, where third party game sales weren’t enough to offset ongoing cost recognition from Bungie and other acquisitions, among other expenses.

I’ll say, for the accounting nerds, this does account for an increase in depreciation and amortization, which impacts traditional operating profit (as opposed to an adjusted figure that Sony reports, which did go up).

Underlying the revenue momentum were double-digit quarterly gains across every single product sub-segment. As you’ll see in the gallery above, somewhat surprisingly, the biggest contributor wasn’t Hardware. It was Add-On Content at 27% of the total, after experiencing a solid 15% growth in revenue. Next was Hardware at 24% of the pie, with sales jumping 42% since last year. Digital Software comprised 20% of the total and had the best year-on-year growth of 52%.

Sony also introduced a new product segment called Other Software, which accounts for first-party titles sold outside of the PlayStation family of devices. Thus, its PC offerings like Horizon Zero Dawn and The Last of Us Part 1. While it’s slight from a slice standpoint, only contributing 2% at present, it grew 17% since Q1 last year.

Right now, annual gaming revenue for Sony is a best-ever $27.83 billion. This is the first time it’s been above $27 billion, no doubt boosted by the yen impact I’ve already mentioned many times. However, annual operating profit is currently $1.8 billion, down from $2.3 billion this time last year. That’s a substantial change in profit margin, from 12% to 6%. Looking at annualized figures intensifies Sony’s predicament of expanding revenue yet deteriorating profit, which I believe is somewhat temporary as the console cycle matures.

How does that annual figure compare across the biggest industry peers? Well, Sony’s last 12 month revenue from gaming leads the pack as reported. Then there’s Tencent, which doesn’t report for a few more weeks, around $26 billion for now. Microsoft has $15.47 billion yet could see over $20 billion or better once the Activision Blizzard deal finalizes in the coming months. Nintendo’s big first quarter bumped it to $13.46 billion at the top-line, yet it has $4.49 billion in annual operating profit versus PlayStation’s $1.8 billion.

New chart alert!

Here I’ve presented launch-aligned unit sales for the last two PlayStation generations. It’s a simple, yet effective in my opinion, way to put PlayStation 5’s quarterly bounce-back in perspective. Notably since the PlayStation 4 is Sony’s fastest-selling console, one of the biggest consoles of all time, and its newest sibling is trying desperately to keep pace amidst a more challenging macro environment.

What stands out immediately is the gap between the two widened this quarter, moving from a 1.8 million divergence to now 2 million. That’s the wrong direction, and I’d bet why management said it missed expectations because it wants to cross that trend-line as soon as possible. Occurring during this fiscal year will be challenging, considering PlayStation 4 had its biggest holiday ever in the corresponding period, with nearly 10 million sold in the October to December period of fiscal 2016 alone. That year’s 20 million was the PlayStation 4’s best result; Sony expects PlayStation 5 to ship 5 million more than that!

Moving on to an even more important hardware metric, PlayStation 5 achieved 40 million in sell-thru to consumers right after the June quarter ended, as of July 16th. Like the above, its predecessor reached that same milestone 2 months faster. I probably sound more negative than I should, because in the broader context of the industry’s history, and its Xbox counterpart, PlayStation 5 is selling quite well.

Supplemental stats shown in the report include full game PlayStation software unit sales increasing from 47.2 million last year to 56.5 million in the three months ending June. First party sales were flat at 6.6 million. Which means third party games were responsible for all of growth, namely the likes of new launches like Diablo IV, Final Fantasy XVI and Street Fighter 6, all of which I covered in my recent piece on June’s U.S. sales report from Circana.

Contribution from digital downloads as a portion of total software sales declined in the quarter, shifting from 79% last year to now 72%. That’s still slightly above fiscal 2022, when downloads made up 67% of the total.

The main engagement metric that PlayStation shares is Monthly Active Users or MAUs. This figure, which is an estimate of how many people used PlayStation Network in the last month of the quarter, came in at 108 million. This is the same as last quarter, and up from the 101 million last year. Essentially, about the same amount of people have been active on the network throughout the first half of the calendar year.

“Total game play time during the quarter was only 2% higher year-on-year,” cited management. “And we see the year-on-year growth in software sales as being driven mainly by a considerable increase in spending per play hour by the expanding PlayStation user base.” This fits with the MAU indicator, in that engagement has been mostly consistent lately without growing substantially.

Here’s where another type if disappointment enters, mainly for those of us that want more transparency from companies. Apparently, this is the first quarter during which Sony won’t be reporting PlayStation Plus memberships anymore. It’s an odd decision to me, considering how much trouble it went thru rebranding the service and how it’s seemingly a core part of its future growth strategy to keep people engaged in its library of games. Hopefully this will be updated on an annual basis, or when it hits a fresh milestone.

Thus, the last number we’ll have for PlayStation Plus subscribers is 47.4 million as of March 2023.

Oh, and there’s no mention of PlayStation VR 2 at all. Not entirely unexpected, I suppose.

Just like last quarter, which ended its 2022 fiscal year, Sony’s latest result was mixed when considering both financial elements and expectations for hardware against what happened through June. The firm is generating staggering growth at the top-line, a ridiculous record first quarter with the bump from external partners launching huge multi-platform or timed exclusives. (Plus, don’t forget about that exchange rate benefit.)

Then there was the solid increase in PlayStation shipments, making up for lost time due to earlier chip shortages and pandemic hurdles. Still, last quarter’s number came in below estimate, and expense recognitions due to M&A and other expense types are hitting the bottom line. Hard.

An aspect that’s exceedingly important for PlayStation, as opposed to say Microsoft’s gaming business, is growth due to new exclusive games. Which, as I mentioned in the software section, was nonexistent this past quarter. While third parties like annual iterations from Madden and NBA 2K annual will drive the quarter ending September, first party will certainly pick up in the holiday quarter.

Here’s a look ahead to forecasts and the near future.

Sony raised annual guidance for full year 2023 revenue, both overall and for the PlayStation business, then maintained other forecasts around profit values.

The firm increased total annual sales forecast 6%, to over $89 billion. Similarly, revenue guidance for its gaming division was bumped up 7%, to roughly $30 billion which would be a record. Even with these, it kept forecasts for operating profit the same, and reiterated the annual PlayStation 5 hardware estimate.

“Although we upwardly revised the sales forecast for third-party software which is performing well, we have incorporated a deterioration in the profitability of PS5 hardware mainly due to changes in promotions by geographic region and the sales channel mix,” management wrote, explaining why it didn’t change the PlayStation profit estimate for now.

While I certainly think the top-line is achievable, I’m more skeptical on profit guidance and think it could miss depending on where expenses go in later months. Then, for console sell-in, I had my estimate at 25 to 25.5 million three months back. I’m shifting towards the lower end, now at 24 million to 24.5 million. Partially because I maintain hesitance on a model refresh happening this year, still targeting Calendar 2025 for a slimmer or more powerful PlayStation 5.

While it’s more relevant for the quarter ending December, I’ll go on record now that Marvel’s Spider-Man 2 will have a super start at market in October. It will outpace the 3.3 million copies at launch for its 2018 predecessor. Though with it only on PlayStation 5, I’m hesitant to claim it becomes the fastest-selling PlayStation exclusive ever, currently held by 2022’s God of War: Ragnarök at 5.1 million. I’m more in the 4 million range, which will beat the 3 million of June’s Final Fantasy XVI for the highest launch of titles exclusive to PlayStation 5 (of which there aren’t many).

How about that internal live services push? Well, it will certainly have an impact on costs and profitability towards the downside because of staffing, investment etc ramping up. I don’t foresee a big impact this fiscal year on revenue, unless perhaps Concord from Firewalk Studios sneaks into the January to March quarter. Even then, it won’t sell like its usual exclusives. The largest, most concrete first party release that we know about might be Destiny 2: The Final Shape, which will be around February 2024.

That brings me to the end of my “big three” recaps for this quarter, covering the main manufacturers across the industry. I recommend heading back to the earnings calendar for more events. Thanks for reading! Be well!

Note: Comparisons are year-over-year unless otherwise noted. Exchange rate is based on reported average conversion: US $1 to ¥137.

Sources: Bloomberg (Image Credit), Company Investor Relations Websites, Sony Interactive Entertainment.

-Dom

Diablo, Final Fantasy & Street Fighter Launch June 2023 U.S. Games Industry Sales to Near Record in Circana Report

DomsPlaying1 Comment

A busy season, featuring earnings calendars and Xbox write-ups, continues here at the site today with another major U.S. sales update. Industry tracking firm Circana (formerly The NPD Group) shared its June monthly report for the domestic games market, signaling the halfway point of 2023.

It was a massive month for consumer buying on games and hardware, nearly hitting an all-time June high.

According to Circana, June monthly sales jumped 9% to $4.73 billion. This is the second biggest June month in tracked history, which dates back to the mid 1990s, behind only 2021 when spending was peaking during the middle of quarantines due to coronavirus.

Last month’s increase also marked the second consecutive month of sales growth, after a couple down periods during springtime. All three segments of Video Game Content, Hardware and Accessories experienced growth, with the latter two boosting up double-digits.

In fact, Hardware had its best June in over a decade!

Premium releases in long-running franchises drove the near monthly record as Diablo IV, Final Fantasy XVI and Street Fighter 6 topped the charts, while additional new releases scattered the remaining software ranks.

These big budget projects also impacted the hardware front, where PlayStation 5 returned to the lead and won June by both revenue and units sold. Square Enix’s flagship Final Fantasy XVI launch had a lot to do with that, since the game is currently exclusive to Sony’s current generation platform.

“Big new premium games drove the market,” said Circana’s Mat Piscatella on Twitter. “Momentum continues to swing away from subscriptions/add-on spend towards big new premium games. Hardware [was] helped a bit by new portable PC gaming hardware, it’s an exciting new-ish segment.”

This one-two combination of blockbuster releases and the best supply we’ve seen since the console cycle began back in 2020, alongside macro elements like easing inflation, proved to be a recipe for commercial success to heat up the start of summer.

Check below for a full rundown of the numbers, then a preview of July kicking off the back half of 2023.

United States Games Industry Sales (May 28th – July 1st, 2023)

As I alluded earlier, total spend on games in the second best June on record rose 9% to over $4.7 billion. Until this excellent result, 2023 sales were looking flat for the year. Now, first half spending gained 2% to $26.56 billion, edging out the $26.11 billion from last year.

It’s a welcome return to growth for the domestic market after a shaky, uncertain 2022. It helps to have AAA titles launching at a time when people can find consoles at retail.

The largest segment of Content, which includes software, game downloads and related services, moved up 7% in June to $4.06 billion. During the first six months of 2023, spending declined ever-so-slightly to $22.79 billion. Content accounted for 86% of both the monthly and 1st half sales, compared to 87% last year.

“Console & PC Digital Premium Download spending in the month increased by more than 50% year-on-year.,” Piscatella said. “An 8% increase in content spending on Console and a slight gain in Non-Mobile Subscription spending were offset by declines in the Mobile and the PC, Cloud and Non-Console VR segments.”

Ongoing weakness for mobile, the source which consistently represents a huge portion of Content sales, continued in June as the report said spending was “relatively flat” without putting a number on it. Top earning mobile titles were Candy Crush Saga, Roblox, Royal Match, Coin Master and Monopoly GO!.

Premium software is where the action took place, where five of the Top 20 were brand new to market, including all of the Top 3.

Diablo IV topped the overall chart in June, just as its predecessor did in May 2012. Blizzard Entertainment’s action role-playing banger, with less than a month of sales under its best, was in third place during 2023’s first six months. Within the publisher’s recent second quarter results, management said Diablo IV was Blizzard’s fastest-selling title in its three decade-plus history, already delivering over $1 billion in net bookings.

Next up was Final Fantasy XVI, coming in second place despite being available on just a single device. As a quick comparison, that’s the same slot as Final Fantasy XV during its launch month of December 2016. The latest mainline Final Fantasy already ranks ninth on the 2023 chart, again with less than a month on record, echoing its early global success of 3 million units shipped and downloaded during its launch week. I expect that to increase when the publisher reports earnings this month.

Rounding out the Top 3 was Street Fighter 6, instantly ranked #10 for 2023’s first half. Capcom’s highly-praised entry sold double what 2016’s Street Fighter 5 did during its launch month domestically, earning the highest spend for a head-to-head fighting game since April 2019’s Mortal Kombat 11. At last count, Street Fighter 6 has achieved 2 million copies sold-in globally.

F1 23 and Story of Seasons: A Wonderful Life both also launched during June, and occupied spots a bit lower on the overall software chart. The former started in 15th, while the latter hit 17th. Then, for older titles, Sony’s pair of Marvel’s Spider-Man and Marvel’s Spider-Man Miles Morales launched back into the monthly Top 10.

Warner Bros’ Hogwarts Legacy was the best-selling title of 2023’s first six months, followed by The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom. While we’ll never know, I’d be super curious to see if Zelda might be ahead if downloaded copies were counted, seeing as Nintendo doesn’t share its digital share.

Scroll down for June’s full list, plus the best-selling software of 2023 so far here in the States.

Top-Selling Games of June 2023, U.S., All Platforms (Physical & Digital Dollar Sales):

  1. Diablo IV
  2. Final Fantasy XVI
  3. Street Fighter 6
  4. The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom*
  5. Hogwarts Legacy
  6. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2
  7. Star Wars Jedi: Survivor
  8. MLB The Show 23^
  9. Marvel’s Spider-Man Miles Morales
  10. Marvel’s Spider-Man
  11. FIFA 23
  12. Mario Kart 8*
  13. Dead Island 2
  14. Minecraft
  15. F1 23
  16. Elden Ring
  17. Story of Seasons: A Wonderful Life
  18. God of War: Ragnarök
  19. Resident Evil 4 Remake
  20. Super Smash Bros. Ultimate*

Top-Selling Games of 1st Half 2023, U.S., All Platforms (Physical & Digital Dollar Sales):

  1. Hogwarts Legacy
  2. The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom*
  3. Diablo IV
  4. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2
  5. Star Wars Jedi: Survivor
  6. Resident Evil 4 Remake
  7. MLB The Show 23^
  8. Dead Island 2
  9. Final Fantasy XVI
  10. Street Fighter 6
  11. FIFA 23
  12. Dead Space Remake
  13. Madden NFL 23
  14. Elden Ring
  15. Mario Kart 8*
  16. The Last of Us Part 1
  17. Minecraft
  18. God of War: Ragnarök
  19. Pokémon Scarlet & Violet*
  20. Marvel’s Spider-Man Miles Morales

Fitting perfectly with the strength of this entire report, spending on Hardware increased 22% in June to $454 million. For context, that’s the best June month for the category since June 2008’s $617 million.

You read that correctly. It’s been 15 years since we’ve seen this much money splurged on game consoles during June. And, that month in 2008 was an all-time June record driven by Nintendo Wii, Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3.

Back to present day, even thru May, Hardware was trending way up for the year as supply continued to flood the market and demand kept pace. Across the first half of 2023, people spent $2.61 billion on this category, an increase of 23%.

PlayStation 5 continued its amazing run in 2023, regaining the top spot on the best-selling console list. It won June by both dollars and units after gaining double-digits since last year. That’s because spending on PlayStation overall had its best June on dollar sales since 2008, the same year as mentioned above, and its highest unit sales since June 2010.

Sitting in second place during June was Nintendo Switch, measured by dollars and units. Actually, Circana highlighted that Switch and Xbox Series X|S sales both declined last month. Which makes a lot more sense for the aging Switch, which rumors speculate could have a successors as soon as next year, than the Xbox family which is going the complete wrong direction due to a lack of appealing exclusives and a mismanaged pipeline.

If you want to hear more of my thoughts on Xbox’s hardware approach, or lack thereof, visit my aforementioned recap of Microsoft’s first quarter fiscal 2024 results. PlayStation continued as the premier headliner in the industry, and I’m expecting a monster quarter for Sony’s gaming division when it announces Q1 figures next week.

One thing that caught my eye within Piscatella’s comments was the mention of handheld PC gaming hardware. While Nintendo is the only traditional manufacturer currently investing big in this slice, there are newer portables like Valve with Steam Deck, ROG Ally from ASUS and Logitech’s G Cloud clearly garnering interest, and dollars, from a core yet loud gaming audience. While I don’t expect Sony (which does have its Project Q home streaming device incoming) or Microsoft to put beaucoup dollars behind a native handheld anytime soon, or at all, it’s a worthwhile segment for PC-aligned brands to explore.

Our final area of Accessories jumped up 14% during June, to $214 million. It’s yet another segment that started slow this year, yet it’s managed to trend in a positive direction over recent months. During the 1st half of 2023, spend on peripherals reached $1.15 billion, or 5% higher than last year’s $1.1 billion.

Running in parallel to the exceptional hardware month from Sony, PlayStation controllers occupied the first four spots in this category during June.

The Japanese platform holder’s top-end PlayStation DualSense Edge was last month’s best-selling peripheral. Because of the game pad’s price point and attraction when folks upgrade to a new console, this device also held the top spot during 2023’s initial six months.

While the bread and butter of Accessories continues to be controllers, I believe Virtual Reality headsets will be key for its direction during the year’s back half. Despite a low profile, PlayStation VR 2 is selling better than its predecessor did worldwide. Then, Meta has its Quest 3 scheduled for sometime this Fall. As the follow-up to one of the most popular headsets ever sold, it should provide a noticeable impact.

It seems the games industry is a hot as the weather here in the States, with June proving to be a near record heat wave for consumer spending on all fronts. It’s a blockbuster start to the summer, at a time when school is out and people are ready for fun, especially when air conditioning and a good game can provide much-needed respite from Mother Nature.

Software publishers are capitalizing on beloved franchises, while hardware makers reap the rewards.

While it’s already August on the calendar, there’s still a couple weeks to go before Circana’s next monthly report. That means it’s prediction time! Fair warning: after a better-than-expected result for my June predictions, I’m feeling slightly confident.

July tends to be the calm before August and Madden provide the unofficial kickoff to the commercial season. There’s still plenty to discuss. Plus, titles are evergreen these days and will continue to sell throughout the year, especially as new content hits for some of 2023’s biggest titles.

When it comes to overall spending, I’m expecting a bounce back for this July after 2022’s decline. (Remember MultiVersus? That was last July’s winner.) I can see growth in the low to mid single digits.

The most notable premium releases aren’t necessarily major sellers, with the likes of Nintendo’s Pikmin 4 and Remnant II from Gearbox Publishing containing the most upside. The former will benefit from the Switch effect, as it already has in Japan as the best start in franchise history, and the latter is already at 1 million copies in less than a week. I expect both can achieve Top 10 starts, with upside on the edge of the Top 5.

Then, Capcom launched Exoprimal, and I can’t say I’m that optimistic. I think it misses the Top 20. As for new platforms for older titles, the PC version of Ratchet & Clank: Rift Apart might bring that one back into the Top 20.

I expect an existing title to lead July. Honestly, I’m not sure which will do it, so let’s say Diablo IV repeats just because Final Fantasy XVI is one platform and Tears of the Kingdom doesn’t include digital. It’s going to be a surprising month at the top end.

On the other side, I think July hardware is a foregone conclusion: PlayStation 5 earns and sells the most units.

My time recapping the latest Circana results is now at an end. I recommend reading Piscatella’s thread on social media, even if you rarely visit Twitter or whatever the billionaire baby is calling it this week. It’s worth hanging around just to follow me and like-minded analysts, after all.

Thanks for stopping by. Be well and take care!

Note: Comparisons are year-over-year unless otherwise noted.

*Digital Sales Not Included

^Xbox & Nintendo Switch Digital Sales Not Included

Sources: Activision Blizzard, Capcom, Circana, Game Data Library, Gearbox Publishing, Square Enix.

-Dom

PlayStation 5 Q4 Unit Sales Record Drives All-Time High for Sony’s Gaming Division in 2022 With a Couple Caveats

DomsPlaying

Gamers should be happy, for once, because the PlayStation 5 has finally arrived!

At least that’s according to Sony’s 2022 annual financial results, which proved that any lingering supply issues for the newest console generation are now over.

The Japanese consumer tech giant reported earnings in Japan last week for the fiscal year ending March 2023. Within, its PlayStation division had an exceptional time as hardware inventories returned and people everywhere could buy PlayStations once again. Its Game & Network Services (G&NS) segment produced almost $27 billion in annual sales, an all-time best.

What’s the catch?

Well, a historically weak yen had an outsized impact and was responsible for a substantial portion of revenue growth. Gaming also proved less profitable because of higher development and acquisition expenses. I’ll cover that more later.

Still, that’s not to dampen what Sony is doing with its gaming hardware business emerging out of the height of pandemic times. During January to March, the PlayStation 5 had the best non-holiday quarter for a gaming console ever with 6.3 million units sold. For perspective, it had shipped 3.3 million and 3.9 million in the same quarter during 2020 and 2021, respectively.

This means Sony beat its ambitious fiscal year target of 19 million shipped, reaching 19.1 million. It also drove lifetime shipments to 38.4 million, moving past the 30.75 million for Sega Genesis and Nintendo 64’s 32.93 million.

On the content side for PlayStation, while yearly software unit sales declined, its services and engagement statistics showed progress as PlayStation Plus and Monthly Active Users (MAUs) either remained flat or gained ground.

“Distribution inventories have normalized, and we are now able to deliver PS5 to customers without waiting almost all over the world,” executives said in prepared remarks. “In addition, the positive impact of increased PS5 sell-in has begun to appear in engagement metrics, with dollar-based third-party software sales exceeding the same month of the previous fiscal year in February and March.”

Here’s a closer look at the numbers for 2022, plus a preview of the year ahead with my new predictions.

Starting with Sony overall, its Q4 revenue jumped 35% to $22.6 billion. During fiscal 2022, sales rose 16% to over $85 billion, slightly above its target. This benefited from contributions across a number of business lines, including G&NS in addition to Entertainment, Technology & Services (ET&S) and its Music segment.

On the other hand, quarterly operating profit suffered a 51% decline to $950 million. It was virtually flat for the year, at $8.92 billion, above estimate. Headwinds included currency impact alongside lower contributions from PlayStation and Sony Pictures.

Gaming is a major factor for Sony’s overall performance. Both Q4 and 2022 overall proved to be mixed, with excellent top-line growth yet a weaker profitability outcome. PlayStation revenue between January and March launched 61% higher, to an all-time Q4 record of $7.9 billion. That was over a third of Sony’s sales for the quarter. During 2022, PlayStation sales grew 33% to a record $26.9 billion.

Again, on the flip side was profitability. Fourth quarter operating profit dipped 55% to $287 million. This drove the annual figure down 28% to $1.85 billion.

There’s great top-line movement yet worsening profit tells a totally different tale. Part of the reason behind record sales was massive exchange rate impact. Over the course of 2022, currency effect was upwards of $3.1 billion. That’s 12% of the total! If backing out this portion, for illustration purposes, Sony’s annual revenue would have been virtually flat.

Profitability took a hit mainly due to higher costs associated with making blockbuster first-party games like God of War Ragnarok, which had a reported budget of at least $200 million, plus purchasing Destiny creator Bungie among other smaller studios. Sony is also investing in its services suite and cloud offerings, and rebranded its PlayStation Plus membership structure. And frankly, it costs money to supply more hardware.

A primary growth driver was, naturally, PlayStation 5 hardware shipments. As regional data came in from key markets, indicators pointed to a big quarter. I still didn’t know if it could be this massive. Sony just shipped the most PlayStations in any fiscal Q4. To put this 6.3 million in context, the biggest January to March shipment total was 3.1 million right after its launch in fiscal 2013. Last year, Sony moved a paltry 2 million.

Even more, I bet most if not all stock is selling-thru to customers. The supply and demand equation has equalized, and Sony is clearly making up for lost time.

While this is impressive stuff, the PlayStation 5 continues to lagging its predecessor, which was at 40 million shipped by the end of its third fiscal cycle. That’s currently the fastest-selling console in Sony’s history. We’ll see if PlayStation 5 catches up. (Tease: It should by next year).

This performance was reflected in its product mix, where Hardware made up 35% of the quarter’s sales after more than doubling year-over-year. Next up was 21% via Add-On Content as it benefited from spend on third-party software and downloadable expansions. Digital games comprised 16%, no doubt bolstered by a monumental launch for Warner Bros’ Hogwarts Legacy. And the Others category contributed 13%, moving up 176% since last year. This includes Sony’s games on PC, such as The Last of Us Part 1 which launched in March.

As I did during my Microsoft earnings reaction, here’s a quick rundown of where Sony’s latest annual output fits compared to peers. Tencent’s latest was nearly $26 billion, meaning that if we account for extreme exchange rate fluctuations, Sony’s $26.9 billion would be tops. Backing out that effect, Sony occupies the second spot again at $23.82 billion. This is where Microsoft’s Xbox sales sit at $15.43 billion. Activision Blizzard’s 12-month revenue was $8.14 billion, so the combined firm could be $22 billion to $23 billion, accounting for redundancies and sales overlaps. Nintendo previously produced $12.25 billion, yet the company is reporting more recent results next week.

Sony’s management also shared supplemental statistics, which give insight into the number of folks playing regularly on PlayStation, if those users actively sticking around plus how well are services being received.

To keep it simple, I’ll focus on annual figures. Intriguingly, full game software sales across the PlayStation family took a substantial hit during 2022, moving down 13% to 264.2 million. Out of that, 43.5 million were from first-party titles published by Sony itself. That number is down only marginally from last year’s 43.9 million. In fact, Sony claims that dollar sales of first-party software rose 41%, including the impact from Bungie. The bulk of the unit drop was external games.

Digital represented 67% last year, up slightly from the 66% of fiscal 2021. That means more than two-thirds of games purchased for a PlayStation platform are via download. Digital’s slice didn’t dip below 62% during any quarter over the past two years.

It appears that, for now, the refurbished PlayStation Plus service is attracting and retaining users. There were 47.4 million memberships at the end of March, the same exact figure as the prior year and up 1 million sequentially since the holiday season.

Reflecting a similar engagement theme was active users on PlayStation. MAUs, defined as the “estimated total number of unique accounts that played games or used services on the PlayStation Network during the last month of the quarter” rose from 106 million in March 2022 to 108 million now.

Thus, while software sales declined for Sony this fiscal year, just as many people are subscribing to its catalog of older titles on PlayStation Plus and even more people are active on the ecosystem, which contributed to its elevated financial results.

“The number of monthly active users for PlayStation as a whole increased 2.3 million accounts compared to the same month of the previous fiscal year in March,” management said on its conference call.

There’s two sides to Sony’s story last year, and I’ve fully delved into both. To summarize, it was one of the best years gaming has ever seen. Albeit with the caveat of revenue benefiting greatly from a weak local currency and profit facing hits from big costs. There’s macro elements like supply lines being shored up that greatly benefit, and even though people are buying less games, perhaps partially due to inflation pressure, they are playing the games they bought.

One disappointing element of Sony’s announcement was nothing much on PlayStation VR2, which launched in February. For such a major product launch to receive zero airtime is concerning, and reinforces my viewpoint that its launch isn’t moving the needle for PlayStation or virtual reality as a niche.

Looking ahead, Sony has set a rather ambitious target for its gaming division in fiscal 2023. Namely, it expects the best year ever for PlayStation hardware, even with a single system-selling title on the docket for the upcoming 12 months.

“We are planning to release a major title, Marvel’s Spider-Man 2, this fiscal year, and we aim to continue creating new IP, rolling out catalog titles for PC and strengthening live game service development.”

Starting with hardware guidance, executives anticipate shipping a staggering 25 million PlayStation 5’s between April 2023 and March 2024. That would be the single best year of PlayStation console sales in its three decade history. If this happens, lifetime PlayStation 5 sales would reach 63.4 million, thus blowing past PlayStation 4’s 60 million on a launch-aligned basis.

I believe Sony will in fact meet this mark. I’m forecasting 25 to 25.5 million in annual PlayStation 5 shipments. I don’t expect any sort of new enhanced version, despite what “insiders” claim. Sony doesn’t need one right now. Supply has caught up to demand and it will milk the current devices until there are more games available solely on this generation.

Effectively, I’m targeting calendar 2025 for a PlayStation 5 model refresh.

Unlike Sony’s overall guidance expecting lower results in fiscal 2023, the firm is upbeat on the gaming segment. It anticipates 7% higher revenue and 8% better operating profit for PlayStation, to $28.8 billion and $1.99 billion respectively. The former would be another all-time best.

Will it hit these? I’m hesitant, not because of games or hardware, mainly because of exchange rate uncertainty plus cost upside. I’m expecting a more modest rise in the low single-digits, and operating profit to be flat or down slightly.

I’m expecting a great upcoming 12 months for software on PlayStation. Marvel’s Spider-Man 2 is undoubtedly a system seller. Square Enix’s Final Fantasy XVI and Capcom’s Street Fighter 6 will attract audiences. Activision Blizzard will launch Diablo IV to critical and commercial acclaim, and will have some sort of premium Call of Duty to sell. MLB The Show is a quiet success every year. Even Ubisoft will, allegedly, launch some games.

There’s also the transmedia portion and PC sales, incorporating brands like The Last of Us and Twisted Metal, which can provide upside if costs are kept in check. The great unknown is Sony’s live services push because it’s still in the ramp-up phase, where it generates expenses long before revenues and I remain a skeptic on just how many players will obsess over ongoing games exclusive to a single platform. At least Naughty Dog should share more on The Last of Us multiplayer this year.

I’ve come to the end of another fun rundown, within what’s already been a busy season. Next up will be Nintendo next week. Thanks for hanging out. Until then, take care, and be well everyone!

Note: Comparisons are year-over-year unless otherwise noted. Exchange rate is based on reported average conversion: US $1 to ¥135.4.

Sources: Ariana Ruiz/Picture Alliance (Image Credit), Circana, Company Investor Relations Websites, The Guardian.

-Dom

PlayStation 5 Outpaces PlayStation 4 in Circana’s March 2023 U.S. Games Industry Sales Report

DomsPlaying

Can you believe the year is a quarter over? At least it’s beautiful springtime here in the States.

Which means, most importantly of course, it’s time to spring into another monthly sales report!

Industry tracking firm Circana, formerly The NPD Group, recently published its March 2023 games industry report which tracks trends and tidbits on spending habits of domestic gamers.

Both March and the first three months showed common themes, while the PlayStation 5 hit a major milestone compared to its predecessor plus Capcom has another REmarkable hit on its hands.

Overall consumer buying on games and related categories declined 5% in March, leading to a modest 1% drop for the first quarter. Underlying this movement was weakness in mobile and certain software areas, which offset sizeable gains in the hardware segment.

Generally this indicates industry sales normalizing towards pre-pandemic levels, as consumers get back to other forms of entertainment and face certain external pressures like continued inflation. Better hardware supply is providing a much-needed boost, because those looking to buy a current generation box at retail can find one.

Circana’s monthly announcement tells a mixed story on the Content side as mobile and premium software continued downward pressure, even as new launches hit market. Within premium, Capcom’s Resident Evil 4 Remake was the month’s best seller.

On the console front, Sony’s PlayStation 5 has been on market now for 29 months. This is worth mentioning because it’s (finally) outpaced 2013’s PlayStation 4 on a launch-aligned basis. Until now, the recent cycle was lagging its predecessor. In fact, PlayStation 5 also set a new March unit sales record for the brand, a month after it did the same for a February month, implying that Sony might be able to meet its lofty goals towards this the end of its fiscal year.

“PlayStation 5 lifted hardware spending in March,” said Circana’s Mat Piscatella on Twitter. “However this growth was offset by a decline in content spending, where increases in non-mobile subscription as well as digital add-on console content were offset by lower spend across premium games, PC add-on content and mobile.”

Scroll down for more reactions to the commercial standing of the U.S. games industry in Q1.

United States Games Industry Sales (February 26th – April 1st, 2023)

During the last month, total games industry spending moved down 5% to $4.63 billion. This means the first quarter equaled $13.58 billion, down 1% to date.

The largest contributor of Video Game Content made $3.83 billion in March, a decline of 7% as it comprised 83% of the overall figure. In the same month last year, it made up 85% mainly because of softness in hardware at the time. Q1 purchasing on Content this year lowered 4% to $11.51 billion, whereas in 2022 it reached $12 billion by now.

Mobile was a driving force, moving down yet again in March albeit it’s unclear to what extent as Circana doesn’t share specifics. The report still claims mobile spend was “strong” during March, led by the casual sub-category having its best month since a year ago, outpacing even the holiday period. Top mobile earners last month were Candy Crush Saga, Roblox, Royal Match, Coin Master and Pokémon Go.

Circana said premium software also exhibited a year-on-year decline in March, despite a handful of higher profile releases. Keep in mind last year was the first full month of Elden Ring sales, a title which proved to be a bellwether throughout the first quarter and beyond, plus featured launches in the Gran Turismo and Kirby franchises.

The reanimated Resident Evil 4 Remake won March by revenue, making it the 3rd best-selling game of the entire quarter with only a week of sales in consideration. As compared to earlier titles, Resident Evil Village also topped its debut month of May 2021 while Resident Evil 3 Remake started in 6th during April 2020.

This is an impressive beginning for the beloved Resident Evil 4 Remake that parallels its global success, whereby it’s the second fastest-selling franchise game behind only Resident Evil 6 in 2012. Resident Evil 4 Remake moved 3 million copies in its first two days, and has since sold over a million more.

Beneath Hogwarts Legacy at #2 was the next new release in MLB The Show 23, which scored a third place start. The past couple incarnations of Sony San Diego’s multi-platform baseball sim have performed in this range during their debut months, hitting 4th and 1st in 2022 and 2021, respectively. This year’s title is already the 4th best-seller of 2023, made even more impressive by the fact that it only counts digital on select platforms.

The final new title on March’s list was WWE 2K23 at #7. This was a great result for Take-Two’s latest wrestling game, notably because the publisher doesn’t share its download portion. All of this is from physical sales. Its predecessor entered the arena in the same spot in March 2022 after the storied series took a much-needed year off.

Otherwise, last month’s premium ranks were occupied by titles launched in earlier periods. Major movers included Metroid Prime Remastered jumping from #21 to #13 and Lego Star Wars: The Skywalker Saga launching up to 20th from down in 41st.

Across the first three months of 2023, Hogwarts Legacy was the top-selling title followed by Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2. The two new entries in March bumped Dead Space Remake a bit to 5th. Further down, Octopath Traveler II was probably the most notable, moving from outside the Top 20 into the 17th slot.

Here’s the full rundown of premium software sellers for March and the first quarter.

Top-Selling Games of March 2023, U.S., All Platforms (Physical & Digital Dollar Sales):

  1. Resident Evil 4 Remake
  2. Hogwarts Legacy
  3. MLB: The Show 23^
  4. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2
  5. The Last of Us Part 1
  6. FIFA 23
  7. WWE 2K23*
  8. Elden Ring
  9. Madden NFL 23
  10. Mario Kart 8*
  11. Minecraft
  12. Octopath Traveler II
  13. Metroid Prime Remastered*
  14. Pokémon Scarlet & Violet*
  15. God of War: Ragnarök
  16. Kirby’s Return to Dreamland*
  17. Dead Space Remake
  18. NBA 2K23*
  19. Sonic Frontiers
  20. LEGO Star Wars: The Skywalker Saga

Top-Selling Games of Q1 2023, U.S., All Platforms (Physical & Digital Dollar Sales):

  1. Hogwarts Legacy
  2. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2
  3. Resident Evil 4 Remake
  4. MLB The Show 23^
  5. Dead Space Remake
  6. Madden NFL 23
  7. FIFA 23
  8. Elden Ring
  9. The Last of Us Part 1
  10. God of War: Ragnarök
  11. Mario Kart 8*
  12. Pokémon Scarlet & Violet*
  13. Fire Emblem Engage*
  14. Minecraft
  15. Forspoken
  16. Sonic Frontiers
  17. Octopath Traveler II
  18. NBA 2K23*
  19. Monster Hunter Rise
  20. One Piece Odyssey

Sales within the Video Game Hardware category moved up 10% in the U.S. last month, settling at $566 million, which proved to be a substantial figure in a historical context.

“This is the second highest video game hardware spend for a March month in U.S. history, trailing only the $680 million reached in March 2021,” noted Piscatella.

That sort of near historic momentum drove Q1 sales upwards 21% to $1.5 billion. For comparison, its contribution was $1.2 billion between January and March 2022.

This signals not just a healthy supply of consoles in market, but a better-than-expected amount coming off a challenging 2022. I’ve written about how I was skeptical of Sony’s bullishness on its console business even now that supply lines are shored up. I’m beginning to think executives were onto something.

Why? In addition to PlayStation 5 now selling faster than PlayStation 4 domestically, it also set a new unit sales record last month for the PlayStation brand during a March month. Looking back historically, PlayStation Plus moved 620K units around its first month in 2005. The latest box from Sony outsold this number.

Naturally, PlayStation 5 was the best-selling console of March by both units and revenue as it gained ground compared to last year. It’s unclear if we’re looking at a record first quarter of unit sales after both February and March were both all-time PlayStation records. All Circana did was call year-on-year growth in Q1 “significant.”

Something else that’s significant, even if less so, was how Xbox Series X|S again secured second place during March as measured by dollar sales. This is the second month in a row where Microsoft’s latest console family has outpaced Nintendo on revenue. Still, Nintendo Switch continues to move off shelves in its seventh year as the runner-up during March by unit sales.

Similar to March itself, when considering the first quarter, Switch secured second place on units. Xbox Series X|S is runner-up right now on dollars. Circana tells me that the difference between the two platforms vying for second place is “very close.” Basically, it’s anyone’s game!

Rounding out the spending categories was Video Game Accessories, which didn’t move much in March or Q1 in either direction. Purchasing rose 1% last month to $239 million, making the year-to-date essentially flat at $617 million.

Game pads boosted March’s result, earning more than any other sub-segment in Accessories. Sony’s PlayStation 5 DualSense Edge Wireless controller in black was the month’s top-seller, benefiting from that premium price point.

As for the year-to-date best-seller, I have a question out to Circana to see if they might be able to share it. I’d imagine it’s one of the PlayStation 5 DualSense models, based on how well the corresponding console is doing lately.

Separately, fitting with the broader narrative of a slower start for PlayStation VR2, I asked Circana specifically if they could share anything about the headset’s performance or how it compares to the first iteration back in 2016. They weren’t able to comment. Seeing this segment where it is means that I don’t think virtual reality is moving the needle, even during the first full month of sales for a premier product launch from one of the industry’s biggest players.

While somewhat disappointing, it matches my expectation that virtual reality has niche appeal, both in the past and future, until the technology catches up with where it needs to be and headsets can be standalone. There’s also the high barrier to entry on cost for something that requires a console connection.

While domestic industry sales trended downward during both March and the first quarter, there are plenty of bright spots including hardware, big budget title sales and even accessories moving in a good direction. PlayStation 5 hitting a couple major milestones is reassuring, given where supply has been for most of this generation.

“Engagement is returning to pre-pandemic levels, but spending is holding significantly above,” noted Piscatella.

Mobile is still the unknown, showing weakness for a while now, and Xbox Series X|S continues to lag where it should be against its biggest peer. Perhaps Microsoft isn’t as concerned. Circana did specifically say that subscription spending, like that on Xbox Game Pass, is still growing at this phase, although slower than it has in recent years because of cycle maturation.

I’ll now cover the first month of the new quarter before I go. April is a curious month, continuing with blockbuster releases on the premium side. Plenty of which will help with console demand.

I’m anticipating overall spending to be flat year-on-year, with upside depending on if console inventory holds up and where mobile goes.

Within Content, I’m expecting a massive debut from Star Wars Jedi: Survivor. However, there’s a caveat. The latest from Respawn Entertainment and Electronic Arts launches on April 28th, the day before the April tracking period ends. Even so, I’m betting it’s the month’s best-seller.

Dead Island 2 releases later this week, and it’s a curious one in this context. I can see a Top 10 start, though not a Top 5. EA Sports PGA Tour can be a quiet seller, with Top 15 potential. Minecraft Legends will absolutely have its audience on brand alone, yet I’m not expecting a high chart position because a number of fans will access it via Xbox Game Pass and strategy is more of a focused genre. Lastly, Horizon Forbidden West has its Burning Shores expansion out, so that should reappear in a solid position.

For the console space, it’s impossible to bet against Sony right now. At least until Nintendo’s next Zelda game in May. Expect another win for the PlayStation 5 in April.

Thus officially ends the first quarter, a fun one at that. I greatly appreciate everyone visiting the site. Check out Piscatella’s social media post for further details directly from Circana. Be well, all!

*Digital Sales Not Included

^Xbox & Nintendo Switch Digital Sales Not Included

Note: Comparisons are year-over-year unless otherwise noted.

Sources: Bloomberg, Capcom, Circana.

-Dom

Hogwarts Legacy & PlayStation 5 Unit Sales Record Boost U.S. Games Sales Growth in February 2023 Circana Report

DomsPlaying

It’s the season to Spring into a new video game sales report.

Yup, the jokes really bloom around these parts and can blossom into something special.

Anyways, I’m here to cover the latest U.S. games industry spending report. For a bit of background, industry tracking firm The NPD Group merged with Information Resources, Inc (IRI) last year. Now, the two firms have rebranded into: Circana.

Fun new name, same sales data!

Within this announcement, Circana shared that consumer spending here in the States is back to growth after a lackluster January. In fact, February’s 6% growth rate was the best result since October 2021’s 13% increase amidst certain macro elements easing and console inventories returning to retail.

Total monthly spend reached $4.6 billion, boosted mainly by the massive launch of Hogwarts Legacy and ongoing PlayStation 5 stock meeting its consistent demand. All three primary categories of Content, Hardware and Accessories showed gains last month, the latter two in double-digit territory.

For Content, while mobile spending continued to lag, the premium side proved healthy especially as it relates to new releases. There were seven new launches among the Top 20 best-sellers, including four within the Top 10. Earning the top spot was Hogwarts Legacy, published by Warner Bros.

Note: Harry Potter author J.K. Rowling wasn’t directly involved in making Hogwarts Legacy, though she undoubtedly benefits from it financially. I want to make it utterly clear that trans rights are human rights, and I think her transphobic comments are despicable.

PlayStation 5 continued to drive an upward trajectory within the Hardware segment, which saw spending jump nearly 70% in February. Sony’s latest was the best-selling console by both units and revenue. Even further, it sold more units last month than any prior individual PlayStation platform. Previously, the PlayStation 2 held this record back in 2005.

“The February results, and really those going back to October of last year, show a stabilization of trends, both in purchasing and engagement,” said Circana’s Mat Piscatella on Twitter. “We’re well into the ‘new normal’ and are no longer subject, for now, to the wild swings we’d seen in the market starting in March 2020.”

Here’s a deeper dive into the data incoming!

United States Games Industry Sales (January 29th – February 25th, 2023)

Consumers in the U.S. spent upwards of $4.6 billion on gaming last month, 6% higher than this time last year. That means year-to-date is trending up almost 1% to $8.95 billion.

Slowness in mobile was offset by digital strength on both console and PC, plus subscription spending on non-mobile platforms went up. Alongside this, the launch of Sony’s PlayStation VR2 led to higher sales within peripherals, even if there’s limited detail on its actual impact.

Digging into the report, Content category spending in February rose 1% to $3.89 billion, making up 85% of the broader total. Last year, it contributed 88%. This means for 2023 right now, spending is down a modest 2% to $7.68 billion.

Circana didn’t share much in the way of specifics on mobile, other than to highlight that it declined during the month. According to data partner Sensor Tower, the best performing mobile titles were Candy Crush Saga, Roblox, Royal Match, Pokémon Go and Coin Master. In particular, Pokémon Go had a resurgence, seeing in-game spend up 23% compared to January, indicating a 10% increase year-on-year, as it reentered the Top 5 biggest monthly earners.

Within premium software, the aforementioned Hogwarts Legacy concocted a recipe for success, outselling all other titles during its debut month thus securing the top spot of 2023 so far. The ever-present Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 and Dead Space, January’s winner, rounded out the Top 3 respectively. After a couple sports titles in Madden NFL 23 and FIFA 23, The Last of Us Part 1 moved back into Top 10 at #6 on the back of the hugely popular HBO show.

Rounding out the Top 10 were three more new releases. Wild Hearts started in 8th, which means Electronic Arts published four of the eight best-selling titles in February. Next up were two Japanese titles in Sega’s Like a Dragon: Ishin! and Square Enix’s Octopath Traveler II finishing up the Top 10. As a comparison for the latter, Octopath Traveler was the best-selling title of July 2018. In fairness, the sequel had only a couple days of tracking last month, however it also launched on more platforms than strictly Nintendo Switch.

Moving down the list to look at other new games, Kirby’s Return to Dream Land started at #15. The Kirby brand has seen a nice boost from the Switch effect this generation, as last year’s Kirby and the Forgotten Land was the fastest-selling game in franchise history. We’ll know more about its performance during Nintendo’s upcoming results.

Company of Heroes 3 debuted at #16. That’s a solid showing from the latest mainline entry in the real time strategy series, as Company of Heroes 2 didn’t chart back in 2013. This also means that Sega had three games among the best-sellers ranks in February. Finally, Theatrhythm Final Bar Line landed right at #20, the second game from Square Enix on the list.

It’s way early in the year, so the annual ranks look a lot like February’s. Hogwarts Legacy entering the list at #1 is the headliner, of course. Sony’s The Last of Us Part 1 bumps up into the Top 10, at #9. Electronic Arts still has three titles within the Top 5, and also boasts Need for Speed: Unbound at #18 and Wild Hearts sneaking in at #20.

Check below for a complete rundown of recent best-sellers.

Top-Selling Games of February 2023, U.S., All Platforms (Physical & Digital Dollar Sales):

  1. Hogwarts Legacy
  2. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2
  3. Dead Space Remake
  4. Madden NFL 23
  5. FIFA 23
  6. The Last of Us Part 1
  7. Elden Ring
  8. Wild Hearts
  9. Like a Dragon: Ishin!
  10. Octopath Traveler II
  11. God of War: Ragnarök
  12. Minecraft
  13. Mario Kart 8*
  14. Pokémon Scarlet & Violet*
  15. Kirby’s Return to Dream Land*
  16. Company of Heroes 3
  17. Sonic Frontiers
  18. The Last of Us Part 2
  19. NBA 2K23*
  20. Theatrhythm Final Bar Line

Top-Selling Games of 2023 So Far, U.S., All Platforms (Physical & Digital Dollar Sales):

  1. Hogwarts Legacy
  2. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2
  3. Dead Space Remake
  4. Madden NFL 23
  5. FIFA 23
  6. Elden Ring
  7. Fire Emblem Engage*
  8. God of War: Ragnarök
  9. The Last of Us Part 1
  10. Forspoken
  11. Pokémon Scarlet & Violet*
  12. Minecraft
  13. Mario Kart 8*
  14. One Piece Odyssey
  15. Sonic Frontiers
  16. Monster Hunter: Rise
  17. NBA 2K23*
  18. Need for Speed: Unbound
  19. Marvel’s Spider-Man: Miles Morales
  20. Wild Hearts

Last month, domestic Hardware segment sales jumped a staggering 68% to nearly $500 million. After January’s resilience, it’s returned to growth amidst continued supply improvements and people’s general interest in buying consoles. A major third-party software launch in Hogwarts Legacy didn’t hurt, either.

In fact, Circana pointed out the latest monthly result was the highest hardware spend during a February month in well over a decade. Last month’s $495 million figure was the best since 2009, back when it reached $534 million.

Expanding to the current yearly number, console spend is trending 29% higher to $888 million.

Leading the charge here is Sony’s latest generation of PlayStation 5 devices. This family repeated its win from January, indicating the company’s supply lines are shored up and retail boxes are available for folks to purchase as desired. In fact, PlayStation 5 unit sales last month set a record February level compared to all other individual PlayStation platforms in history. Better availability alongside pent-up demand and tent-pole AAA title was the perfect storm for a record month.

While Circana doesn’t share exact unit sales, we can estimate based on historical data. Using older data from The NPD Group results back during February 2005, PlayStation 2 unit sales domestically were roughly 533K at the time. PlayStation 5’s output last month must have been even higher for it to set a record. Over half a million sold in a single, non-holiday month!

What about something non-PlayStation? Such as Nintendo Switch? Or Xbox Series X|S?

Well then, Switch was second in February on unit sales while Xbox Series X|S generated the second most dollars. As for 2023, Nintendo Switch was second on dollars generated while Xbox Series X|S slots in third by that metric.

Accessories was the other segment that rose double-digits in February, moving up 13% to $212 million. It’s now essentially flat for the year, down 1% to $377 million in aggregate across the first two months.

Circana attributed the monthly gain to a greater contribution from virtual reality headsets, which offset lower controller buying. The main reason for that was, clearly, the launch of PlayStation VR2. To what extent is unclear, because Sony hasn’t shared results on its new product and this report isn’t specific on how it compares to its predecessor or peers. It’s hard to say where indicators point when there aren’t any.

Update: I’ve chatted with Piscatella from Circana. He confirmed the best-selling accessory of February was Sony’s DualSense Midnight Black wireless controller. Additionally, Sony also secured second place with its DualSense Gray Camo game pad iteration. I have my eye on future releases to get a sense of how PlayStation’s premium DualSense Edge version fares.

February’s showing for U.S. spending was a solid recovery from January, and the best year-on-year growth in around 18 months. It helped to have an uber-popular franchise like Harry Potter launch, not to mention how people can actually find consoles to buy which led to PlayStation 5 setting a new February unit sales high within the brand’s history.

There’s also the general impact from easing inflation, allowing consumers to spend a bit more on entertainment. Having console supply or major games on market is great; there’s also the buying power and ongoing demand side of the equation.

“Improved PS5 supply has certainly helped, as have strong sales performances across both new releases and catalog titles,” noted Piscatella. “Some areas are still in the process of normalizing such as mobile, and we’re still seeing delays that might not have happened in other times.”

Looking ahead to March, it’s already almost the end of another quarter! Note the Circana sales report tracks from February 26th to April 1st.

I’m upbeat, especially for the likes of new releases, software holdovers from February and PlayStation hardware. Mobile remains iffy. Even considering last year when March had the bulk of Elden Ring sales, this year there’s the equally impressive Hogwarts Legacy, which I expect might repeat as the month’s top-seller.

The other AAA title that will compete for March’s prime position is Resident Evil 4 Remake, which shipped 3 million units during its first two days according to Capcom. It will be among the Top 3, and I’m Leoning towards predicting it will win.

Then there’s additional bigger budget releases that will chart, including MLB The Show 23, Wo Long: Fallen Dynasty and WWE 2K23. I’m expecting a great opening day (and month) from MLB The Show in particular, and there’s upside to WWE 2K after last year’s return to form.

On the hardware front, it’s difficult to bet against the PlayStation 5 right now. So I won’t, at least not until May when The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom hits Switch. Speaking of, have you seen that footage? Wow!

In general for the upcoming March monthly announcement, I see spending up slightly since last year, with hardware showcasing a double-digit bump. Content will be closer to flat, depending on how mobile goes.

In the meantime, I recommend checking out Piscatella’s thread on Twitter (even though he doesn’t like us dark mode users!) for more details on February’s results. Feel free to drop a line here or on social media with any questions or comments. Thanks for visiting! Be safe, all.

*Digital Sales Not Included

Note: Comparisons are year-over-year unless otherwise mentioned.

Sources: Capcom, Circana, Nintendo, Warner Bros.

-Dom

PS5 & Dead Space Headline January 2023 NPD Group U.S. Sales Report During 1st Decline Since September

DomsPlaying

I’m back to the domestic sales beat!

Yesterday, The NPD Group posted its first monthly report of 2023 showcasing January’s consumer spending across the games industry. Since this currently matches year-to-date, this recap will be shorter than usual. There’s still a lot of juicy data to uncover.

January’s results were mixed, moving down 5% since last year’s near all-time overall spending high which occurred in 2021. Ever since that peak, it’s been slowly reverting towards pre-pandemic levels.

In the context of recent figures, January was the first spending decline since September 2022 when it dipped 4%. This modest downward move was mainly due to the strong comparable last year, during which the massive launch of Pokémon Legends Arceus on Nintendo Switch.

Within the segments of Video Game Content, Video Game Hardware and Video Game Accessories, Hardware was the only category that didn’t show a reduction since this time last year. Still, console sales were flat, which limited the category’s upside push on the total even amidst inventory improvement.

The Content side often goes as mobile does, since it contributes upwards of the category’s sales. While the group’s report didn’t quantify mobile spending, it did cite a decline in this major area.

“Drops in mobile content, physical console content, and gamepad spending drove the January shortfall,” noted The NPD Group’s Mat Piscatella.

Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2, as expected, continued to lead the overall premium software sales chart. As for new titles, the Dead Space Remake from Electronic Arts was the headliner in the second spot.

Within Hardware, just as Sony’s PlayStation 5 did during 2022 measured by dollar sales, it was the top-selling console in January. This time by both revenue and units, meaning Sony’s production ramp-up is in full swing in an attempt to offset shortages earlier in this latest generation.

I always say it’s crucial to keep historical context in mind when looking at monthly shifts. Consumer spending last January was down 1% from a best-ever result the prior year in the States. Which means that even though last month was the first decline in some time, this movement isn’t as poor a result as headlines might indicate.

That said, here’s a full recap of the numbers underlying this latest report.

United States Games Industry Sales (January 1st – January 28th, 2023)

Unfortunately, The NPD Group’s public report for January was more sparse than usual in terms of charts and graphs. The above graphic shows last month’s numbers.

Overall U.S. spending on games lowered 5% to $4.35 billion. Compare that to last year’s $4.59 billion, and 2021’s record of $4.8 billion. People are spending a bit less now, whether due to macro pressure like inflation or choosing other entertainment forms as they venture outside the house.

Content sales dipped to $3.79 billion, or a similar decline of 5%. Currently, this segment that includes software sales, mobile and subscriptions alike, makes up 87% of the country’s total. During the holiday season in December, this portion was 73% due to higher relative hardware output. It was recently much closer to 2022’s January contribution of 88%.

Mobile weakness continued, and this year’s new premium titles weren’t quite enough to match the performance of a major Pokémon franchise release back in January 2022.

Activision Blizzard’s Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 led the premium ranks for the fourth consecutive month since its start in November, now moving into a new season for the ongoing multiplayer shooter.

Next was the re-imagined Dead Space from Motive Studios as the first new entry in January, landing in second place. While The NPD Group didn’t share much in the way of comparisons, we can look at earlier rankings. During October 2008, the original Dead Space didn’t chart since it was a new offering. When the much-anticipated sequel Dead Space 2 debuted in January 2011, it was the third best-seller after Call of Duty: Black Ops and Just Dance 2. Lastly, in February 2013, Dead Space 3 secured top billing for the series’ best performance to date.

Back to last month, rounding out the Top 3 was Madden NFL 23, the same exact position it held for 2022 overall. This consistency was in part driven by the lead-up to Super Bowl LVII, during which Kansas City thankfully won over the Philadelphia Eagles. (Giants fan here, as if you couldn’t tell!)

The next new release to chart last month was Fire Emblem Engage on Nintendo Switch at #5. One caveat for this latest mainline entry in the long-running franchise is that Nintendo’s games don’t include digital share for the purposes of these domestic charts. Compare its spot to Fire Emblem: Three Houses in July 2019 when it took home #2 behind only Madden NFL 20.

There were two additional new releases within the Top 10 during January: Forspoken from Square Enix debuted in seventh, while Bandai Namco’s One Piece Odyssey kicked off in ninth. I’d say the former was in-line with modest expectations while the latter undoubtedly out-performed in that position.

Lower down the list, big movers for existing titles included The Last of Us Part 1 which jumped up from 36th to 11th on the heels of its HBO show’s popularity. Monster Hunter: Rise skyrocketed from 68th to 13th as its PC version hit market.

Check below for the full software chart for January.

Top-Selling Games of January 2023, U.S., All Platforms (Physical & Digital Dollar Sales):

  1. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2
  2. Dead Space Remake
  3. Madden NFL 23
  4. FIFA 23
  5. Fire Emblem Engage*
  6. Elden Ring
  7. Forspoken
  8. God of War: Ragnarök
  9. One Piece Odyssey
  10. Pokémon Scarlet & Violet*
  11. The Last of Us Part 1
  12. Sonic Frontiers
  13. Monster Hunter: Rise
  14. Mario Kart 8*
  15. Minecraft
  16. Need for Speed Unbound
  17. Just Dance 2023
  18. NBA 2K23*
  19. Marvel’s Spider-Man: Miles Morales
  20. NHL 23

Spending on Hardware ended up virtually flat year-on-year during January, at $393 million. The implication being supply is generally getting better, however the lower-priced Switch is still a significant portion of the pie while Sony and Microsoft still aren’t where they would like to be on manufacturing.

“Growth in PlayStation 5 and Switch hardware spending was offset by declines across other platforms,” said Piscatella.

At the top end, PlayStation 5 won the month using both revenue generated and unit sales as barometers. On the dollar sales side, this is the same theme from 2022 when Sony’s platform dominated most months due to its higher average price point. The more impressive part is Sony outpacing all others by units, meaning that its suppliers are increasing inventories at market and consumer demand is steady even after the holiday months.

This sort of result also confirms Sony executives stating recently that it’s easier than even to find a PlayStation 5. Just a couple weeks back, during a record third fiscal quarter report, the Japanese consumer tech company raised its annual unit sales guidance for the family of devices. It now expects to ship 19 million globally for the fiscal year ending next month, up a million from the previous forecast. At present, it’s at 12.8 million through the first three quarters.

Refocusing on the U.S., Nintendo Switch slotted in second place on both metrics. Based on Piscatella’s comments, its console sales actually grew last month as it approaches its sixth birthday in March. While it’s a small tidbit in the general report, and it’s not specific on the amount of growth, this is a notable accomplishment for the aging platform.

Microsoft’s Xbox Series X|S family continues to lag its peers, seeing as it’s the remaining of the big three and falls into the group of consoles that did not grow in January. This echoes Microsoft’s latest financial results during which hardware sales reduced 13%. Even in the holiday quarter, when demand is at its highest. This signals a couple of points to me: it’s having difficulties getting quantities to market, and that demand might not be as strong as Sony’s offering. It also reflects Microsoft’s broad gaming strategy of reaching players with the appeal of ecosystem and subscription, being where they are with existing devices like mobile as opposed to requiring an Xbox for access. This model diverges compared to competitors, thus local hardware sales seem to be suffering for it.

The NPD Group’s final tracked segment of Accessories saw the most precipitous decline in January, the only one to fall in the double-digits, dipping 14% to $165 million. This comes after a 15% decline last year. In fairness, January 2021 was an all-time high. Still, peripheral spending is showing more severe declines than the other two categories.

Pushing this down was a stark decline in spending on game pads, which is a somewhat unfortunate result considering hardware’s more modest reduction. Game pad spending was the reason behind most of the segment’s softness last month.

Sony’s PlayStation DualSense Wireless Controller in midnight black started 2023 as the year’s best-selling accessory by dollar sales, outpacing all other peripherals in January.

Taking January’s report as a whole, it was a mixed bag coming off better spending during the beginning of 2022. There were positive signs, of course, in terms of PlayStation 5 availability and a more robust release calendar for premium gaming that will continue in future months. Mobile continued to be a main area of caution, as it was in the back half of 2022, along with retail software sales and peripheral spending putting downward pressure on the domestic industry.

Looking ahead to February, the Content side is tricky. Last year saw the record-breaking start for Elden Ring and the great debut of Horizon Forbidden West. Still, all signs point to a spectacular launch for Hogwarts Legacy from Warner Bros last week, which will stand up even against a high comparable and easily be the month’s best-selling premium title. There’s also a pair of “hearts” games in Wild Hearts and Atomic Heart that will bolster ranks here, plus Destiny 2’s Lightfall expansion. Thus, I’m thinking Content will be effectively flat year-on-year. Within 1 to 2% on either side. (Yes, it’s a wishy-washy prediction. Hogwarts Legacy is that huge.)

I’m more upbeat on Hardware for a few reasons, namely better supply and a weaker result last year when the category declined almost 30%. Potential PlayStation 5 buyers weren’t able to find one around then, and now they are seeing more at retail. Nintendo Switch is proving to be resilient. Even with Xbox’s tepid inventory, I’m seeing Hardware rising between 5% to 10% this month as PlayStation 5 will lead the charge as top-seller. As it will often throughout 2023.

I’ll even mention Accessories, mainly because of Sony’s PlayStation VR2 hitting market next week. While I’m mostly bearish on its commercial prospects over the short to medium term, I do expect an early boost in this context. I believe the category will see higher spending than February 2022.

That about wraps up the January wrap-up. What do you think of the latest results? Do you agree with my predictions for February? Are you picking up any new games or PlayStation VR2? I’d love to hear about it at the site or on social media.

As for suggested reading, I recommend Piscatella’s thread on Twitter. Thanks for reading through the first sales recap of 2023! Be well, everyone.

*Digital Sales Not Included, ^Xbox & Switch Digital Sales Not Included

Note: Comparisons are year-over-year unless otherwise mentioned.

Sources: Activision Blizzard, Electronic Arts, The NPD Group, Sony Corp.

-Dom