Tag: Xbox

Activision Blizzard Offsets Hardware Weakness During Record Year for Microsoft Gaming in 2024 Q4 Report

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According to the earnings calendar, it’s time for another recap!

This time I’ll be covering both Q4 and annual results for Microsoft, with a specific rundown on the Gaming business, which is currently experiencing growth via acquisition and facing much uncertainty around certain elements of its current strategy.

As expected after spending nearly $70 billion on Activision Blizzard, the inclusion of this new revenue pushed Microsoft Gaming to double-digit growth and record highs for a fourth quarter and 2024, marking the first time this business generated over $21 billion in annual sales.

Well, what’s behind these juicy headline numbers? And how does it compare to my estimate of where I expected them to be? Well, there’s plenty of questions around the Xbox business, and revenue came in below my personal expectations.

Looking beyond the deal impact, there’s a stagnancy setting in for Xbox over the last year, mainly as Game Pass shifts to user retention alongside a hardware business that under-performed and hit its peak this generation with Microsoft’s shift away from the traditional console approach.

“Stronger-than-expected performance in first-party content was partially offset by third-party content performance,” said Chief Financial Officer (CFO) Amy Hood when discussing the core content and services business during Q4. Which somewhat confuses me, as this must be referring to legacy Game Pass additions as opposed to new published titles.

Check below for the numbers themselves, my reactions to them, updated estimates for hardware shipments and some discussion around future forecasting.

Here’s the reported numbers from the filing and slides above, starting with the broader Xbox division.

During the quarter ending June:

  • Quarterly gaming revenue rose 44% to $5.02B.
  • In-line with company guidance of low to mid-40s.
  • That’s an all-time high fourth quarter.
  • ActiBlizz impact was $1.68B, or 48 points.
  • Which means “all other Xbox” declined 4% to $3.34B.

Now for fiscal year 2024 revenue stats.

  • Annual gaming revenue totaled $21.5B.
  • That’s up 39% from prior year’s $15.5B.
  • Ended slightly below my expectation.
  • See the above chart for full historical context.

Underlying the dynamics was a boost in Xbox Content & Services, over 60% growth with most of the growth due to the acquisition, offsetting a substantial drop for Xbox Hardware well into the double-digits.

This certainly reflects the strategy of subscription and expansion beyond a retail box, plus the integration of a business that now has exposure to PC and mobile. Whether or not this is the right direction is the question, especially given how competitors still put a sizeable focus on the console business as a way to reach audience and sell their titles for full price at launch.

So far, I’ve talked about sales. While Microsoft doesn’t report profit for Gaming, we can infer from the broader More Personal Computing (MPC) segment’s movements.

  • MPC group operating profit rose 5% to $4.92B.
  • That’s after a 43% increase in expenses with 41 points from ActiBlizz.

The indication being that, for the time being, integration is dragging the bottom line and the core Xbox businesses might not be making up for it.

Now I’ll delve deeper into the individual product categories underlying its latest performance.

Starting with Xbox Content & Services, here are Q4 figures.

  • Xbox C&S revenue jumped 61% to $4.66B.
  • This represents 93% of total gaming sales.
  • Best all time by a wide margin, over $1B.
  • And that’s due to ActiBlizz contributing 58 points.

Here’s the content segment for the full financial year.

  • Gained 52% up to $18.55B.
  • Its contribution to the total was 86%.
  • It’s larger than total gaming revenue in FY 2023.
  • Last year Xbox C&S was $12.18B.

Then there’s the struggling Xbox Hardware category, with June quarter results detailed below.

  • Declined 42$ to around $345M.
  • The lowest Q4 result since FY 2020.

Again, now the annual figures for Xbox Hardware.

  • Annual console sales declined 13% to $2.86B.
  • Similar to above, the worse since FY 2020.

I’ll move on to a portion where estimates come into play, since Microsoft stopped reporting hardware unit sales ages ago.

  • Last quarter, my guesstimate was 29.7M to 30.3M Xbox Series X|S lifetime.
  • I have quarterly shipments again under a million, say 750K to 800K in the June quarter.
  • If so, I believe it would be the lowest quarter this generation.
  • Which means I have current Xbox Series X|S lifetime around 31M.

As part of the company’s conference call, Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Satya Nadella provided a couple breadcrumbs around engagement.

  • 500M monthly active users (MAUs) across all platforms.
  • Hour played on Fallout titles rose 5x quarter-on-quarter after Amazon Prime’s Fallout.
  • And, that’s pretty much it.

It’s difficult to even decipher the meaning of monthly actives in this context, other than that mobile is massive and Microsoft purchased an entry point into that audience base.

Oh, and what’s missing? Game Pass subscriber numbers! Last we heard, it was 34 million as of February, conveniently after converting people away from Xbox Live Gold.

I always say one can learn as much from what a company doesn’t say as what it does. The distinct lack of transparency is another indicator of potential stagnation and uncertainty around elements of the business model, at least to me.

Here’s an angle I’d like to take before concluding. What might revenue look like if aggregating Microsoft Gaming and Activision Blizzard historically, then using that to calculate growth stats?

Granted, I had to make some assumptions. Mainly around the double-counting and the move from third-party to first-party. I still think it’s illustrative of the true history for the now combined entity, which tells more than seeing huge increases from the pre-acquistion days..

  • My forecast initially put FY 2024 combined revenue upwards of $22 billion.
  • As a reminder, the actual result was slightly below that: $21.5B.
  • The key is that last year’s number, when combined, was $22.2B, implying a 3% decline.

I can attribute this to a few things. Either the revenue was lower, there were more synergies that impacted the post deal ActiBlizz portion, or my estimates weren’t as accurate as they could have been. Perhaps all of the above. Essentially, this isn’t bible. It’s illustrative and shows a more realistic barometer of the company’s recent trajectory.

Switching gears towards the future, here’s a look at Microsoft’s guidance for FY 2025 Q1.

  • Gaming sales growth expected in the mid-30s.
  • That includes 40 points of ActiBlizz Impact.
  • Yes, so “everything else” will be down around 5%.
  • The company anticipates Xbox C&S to rise in the low to mid-50s.
  • Hardware will be “down.” (My estimate is in the mid-40s yet again.)

Here are these in dollar amounts, for the 3 months ending September.

  • Q1 gaming revenue of $5.29B. Another record.
  • For comparison, last year was $3.92B.
  • Xbox C&S output would be $4.86B.
  • Which means Hardware down to around $410M to $430M.

“The real goal here is to be able to take a broad set of content to more users in more places, and really build what looks more like to us, the software annuity and subscription business,” Hood said in response to a question. “With enhanced transactions and the ownership of IP, which is quite valuable long term.”

This is all well and good on an analyst call. As they say, proof is in the pudding.

Why close a valuable studio like Tango Gameworks, among other layoffs, if a quality pipeline is the key? What about the immediate portfolio, and where is the upside? It’s a light quarter upcoming for first-party, even with ActiBlizz. (I will note October to December will be more active in this regard.)

It’s more about older titles being added to Game Pass, including Call of Duty: MW3 this month, that could move the needle. Note the service’s structure changes took effect in July, and a price increase for existing users hits in September. Without that, I’m not sure these numbers could be achieved.

There is the busy release schedule for third party ramping up starting in August, such as perennial sports titles from Electronic Arts, which already has a certified hit with EA Sports College Football 25, plus there’s Ubisoft’s Star Wars Outlaws which I expect will be Massive.

That said, I think Microsoft meets the mid range of its outlook, with a little bit of upside for consoles as bigger third party blockbusters hit market.

It’s officially now a wrap on my first earnings recap of the season. Bookmark that calendar and stay tuned for more coverage soon! Be well, and stay safe everyone.

Note: Comparisons are year-over-year unless otherwise noted.

Sources: Company Investor Relations Websites, Xbox Support.

-Dom

Microsoft’s Quarterly Xbox Sales Increase Only Due to Activision Blizzard in Fiscal 2024 Q3 Report

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The start of a new earnings season, complete with my usual calendar, means it’s time to start up recaps as well.

I’m going to try something new and tighten up these recap articles!

More concise, same great quality. I hope.

Today, that means covering Microsoft’s recent 2024 Q3 results. I’ll focus mostly on Xbox during this January to March time frame, where there was major sales growth solely due to the impact from Activision Blizzard, as other areas within gaming declined including things like content, subscription and hardware offerings.

Still, Xbox segment sales outpaced guidance, mainly due to out-performance of Call of Duty.

Microsoft’s gaming division also hit a major milestone this quarter. Feeling the boost from the acquisition being included for two quarters now, annualized Xbox sales reached $20 billion for the first time ever.

I mean, this is why Microsoft spent all that dough. Plus, executives expect this to continue in the immediate future, according to guidance I’ll highlight later in this article, as that annual sales number is likely to move above $21 billion to close the fiscal year.

Now I’ll move right into a rundown of the numbers and a look ahead into the future of a somewhat shaky time for Xbox’s output.

Here’s a quick summary of Microsoft’s quarterly gaming sales, as shown in the slides above.

  • Q3 revenue rose 51% to upwards of $5.45 billion.
  • This was above management’s, and my, expectations.
  • It’s an all-time Q3 record, and Xbox’s second best quarter ever.
  • Out of that percentage gain, 55% was due to ActiBlizz impact.
  • Implies all other areas like Xbox, Bethesda etc saw a decline of 4%.

These quarterly sales move gaming back to fourth place in terms of Microsoft’s major product categories, trailing Windows at $5.93 billion.

Expanding now to current annualized Xbox revenue to get a broader sense of the business:

  • Overall annual gaming revenue is $19.97 billion.
  • Compare that to $18.13 billion as of last quarter.
  • The chart in the above gallery shows these in context.

I’ve long written about how this was the strategy around Microsoft’s merger and acquisition activity, to push past the $20 billion per year mark and approach its largest peers, like Sony and even Tencent, especially by leveraging ongoing services and breaking more into mobile.

Which is why I don’t think Microsoft is done buying, even after spending so much on the world’s largest formerly third party publisher.

Similar to my earlier coverage of Xbox, I’ll mention that Microsoft gives limited visibility into the profitability, or lack thereof, of its gaming business. Two points on that:

  • The More Personal Computing (MPC) segment saw operating profit rise 16% to $4.92 billion.
  • The ActiBlizz deal boosted expenses, as its net impact in Q3 was an operating loss of $350 million.

This implies that Xbox, despite seeing a big top-line boost, was likely less profitable this quarter.

Here’s where I’ll highlight the underlying dynamics, by way of discussing product categories.

First up is the larger of the two, Xbox Content & Services (Xbox C&S):

  • Q3 Xbox C&S revenue increased 62% to $5.03 billion.
  • Same as games revenue, this is also a Q3 record and second best ever.
  • ActiBlizz growth contribution was 61%, thus a 1% gain for everything else.

Then, on an annual basis:

  • Current annual Xbox C&S revenue is $16.86 billion, or 84% of the total.
  • That’s up from $14.86 billion last quarter, when it was 82% of the total.

On the flip side, Xbox Hardware had another tough time, without much to drive its fundamentals right now, as lower unit sales weren’t enough to offset gains from higher pricing:

  • Q3 Xbox Hardware revenue declined 31% to $350 million.
  • The lowest 3rd quarter dollar sales of the Xbox Series X|S generation.

Looking at the last 12 months:

  • At present, Xbox Hardware annual sales are $3.11 billion.
  • That’s down from $3.27 billion sequentially, and $3.37 billion last year.

Since Microsoft doesn’t tell us anything about lifetime Xbox Series X|S unit sales, I’ll keep up with my guesstimates.

  • I had the family at 29 million to 29.5 million last quarter.
  • It’s now likely hovering right around the 30 million milestone.
  • I forecast it moved 700K to 800K in the three months ending March.
  • Which lands it around 29.7 million to 30.3 million to date.

When it comes to supplemental stats like engagement, player counts etc, Xbox management didn’t have much to say.

Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Satya Nadella did note the following on the firm’s conference call:

  • Q3 records for “game streaming hours, console usage and monthly active devices.”
  • The first ActiBlizz title on Game Pass Diablo IV was one of the service’s biggest launches.
  • Players clocked over 10 million hours during its first 10 days.
  • This month, Xbox had 7 games among the Top 25 on the PlayStation store.

Which is a distinct lack of specifics, especially as it relates to Game Pass subscribers or total monthly active users, which unfortunately is a common theme here from management.

Before closing out, I’ll mention Microsoft’s overall results.

  • Company revenue jumped 17% to $61.9 billion.
  • Operating profit moved up 23% to $27.6 billion.
  • Microsoft Cloud sales increased 23% to $35.1 billion.

Slipping into the future, management provided guidance for the final quarter of fiscal year 2024.

Here are the expectations shared by Chief Financial Officer (CFO) Amy Hood for Q4 gaming performance.

  • Total gaming revenue growth in the low to mid-40s.
  • 50 points of that via ActiBlizz impact.
  • Xbox C&S expected to grow in the high 50s.
  • 60 points there from ActiBlizz, thus implying everything else will be down 10%.
  • Xbox Hardware will “decline again.” Based on my math, it will be down 24%.

Using these to make certain assumptions, that translates to the following in dollar terms:

  • Total gaming revenue around $5 billion.
  • Xbox C&S revenue upwards of $4.55 billion.
  • Xbox Hardware hitting $450 million.

These feel right to me, with upside for content based on Senua’s Saga: Hellblade II launching in May, certain games like Sea of Thieves accessing additional audiences and a good effect from Amazon’s Fallout show (which is awesome).

Really, it’s going to go as ActiBlizz games go, notably as they are added to Game Pass.

If Xbox hits these targets, it would shatter a record for fiscal year sales, approaching $21.5 billion. For comparison, this number was at $15.5 billion at the end of fiscal 2023!

I hope you enjoyed the new format experiment, where I’m balancing analysis with word count to make it easier to follow and fun to read.

I’ll be back soon with more articles, and feel free to reach out on social media in the interim. Thanks for reading. Until next time, be well!

Note: Comparisons are year-over-year unless otherwise noted.

Sources: Company Investor Relations Websites, Xbox Wire.

-Dom