The year is nearly done. Which means the States are getting chillier, Baldur’s Gate 3 won The Game Awards and this will be the last monthly sales report recap that I’ll write before the calendar turns to January.
Before you know it, I’ll be posting my annual Year-in-Review series. There, I’ll talk about how it’s been an amazing year for game releases yet a very difficult one for working in games. Here, I’m sending all my best to the thousands impacted by layoffs this year and my heartfelt thanks for their work and dedication to their craft.
In terms of the U.S. industry itself, tracking firm Circana recently released its November spending report. It turned out to be a down month as sales declined 7% to $5.87 billion, a lower-than-expected result during the coveted Black Friday month partly due to the console category dropping more than 20%.
This is the second month in a row of spending declines, as October showed a similar dynamic.
The two largest segments, Content and Hardware, both saw lower spending than November last year. Only Accessories experienced growth, and a modest amount at that. Not even ample supply, the PlayStation Portal launch or a brand new Call of Duty could propel towards broader gains last month.
The latest installment Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 secured the top spot on the premium software chart during November. This means Activision Blizzard’s military shooter franchise has led its launch month for a staggering 16 years straight. Even so, signs point to a weaker start than its predecessor, and there’s a chance the series will be dethroned in the final 2023 rankings.
“It’s not to say that Modern Warfare 3 is doing poorly (it is already the 2nd best-selling game of 2023 after all),” Circana’s Mat Piscatella told IGN. “But no it is not currently meeting what Modern Warfare 2 did a year ago.”
On the console front, Sony’s PlayStation 5 continued its monthly dominance as it outsold all competitors measured by dollars and units. Similar to its performance in every month this year except for May, when Nintendo Switch led due to a new Zelda, well on its way to securing a win for the full 12 months.
Overall spending across the industry in 2023 still remains ever-so-slightly positive. Earlier monthly gains due to Hogwarts Legacy and The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom plus a steady mobile resurgence are carrying weight. It all comes down to December, as this month’s performance will dictate where the year ends up.
Scroll down for a full recap of the figures and my final set of predictions this year.
United States Games Industry Sales (October 29th, 2023 to November 25th, 2023)
Total money spent across all of gaming in November was $5.87 billion, or 7% lower than a year back. The downward movement was attributed to a lack of flagship system launches for both PlayStation and Nintendo, which November 2022 had in God of War Ragnarök, Pokémon Scarlet and Pokémon Violet, alongside generally weaker demand in the console space.
After accounting for this latest result, sales for 2023 are currently trending upwards by 1% to $49.28 billion.
The primary contributing segment of Content dipped 3% in November to $4.6 billion, thus making up 78% of the whole. Compare that to last year’s 75% slice.
“An 11% decline in Console & Portable Content spending was partially offset by 3% growth across each of the Mobile, Subscription, and PC, Cloud & Non-Console VR Content segments,” Piscatella noted.
Mobile is now showing consistent growth, even if it’s in the single digits, a solid reversal of where it was earlier in the year. MONOPOLY GO! repeated as the top monthly earner, followed by Royal Match, Roblox, Candy Crush Saga and Coin Master.
The release slate in premium software has slowed leading into year-end, though there were still four new titles among the Top 20, with two of them among the Top 7.
Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 started in that top spot, as it often does. This marks five straight Novembers led by a Call of Duty game, dating back to 2019. After Call of Duty: Black Ops 4 and Red Dead Redemption 2 launched in October 2018, a month won by the former, the latter went on to take November 2018.
October’s leader Marvel’s Spider-Man 2 came in second during its second month, while Hogwarts Legacy bounced back into the Top 3 due to its Nintendo Switch launch as Warner Bros. title in the Harry Potter universe was the second top-selling title on that platform.
Nintendo’s Super Mario Bros. Wonder retained a high position at #5, while the publisher’s newest release Super Mario RPG Remake debuted in 7th. Bandai Namco’s Naruto x Boruto: Ultimate Ninja Storm Connections landed at #12, while Star Ocean: The Second Story R from Square Enix launched at #17.
With respect to Monthly Active Users (MAUs), Fortnite moved up to the most played position on both PlayStation and Xbox ecosystems, surpassing the Call of Duty HQ launcher, while Valve’s Counter-Strike 2 secured Steam’s top engagement. Lethal Company from indie team Zeekerss was the big mover on PC, jumping from 115th in October to 2nd in November.
In terms of the annual list approaching the end of 2023, Hogwarts Legacy is still leading, just above the newly-launched Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 at 2nd with less than a month of tracked sales. There are now two Call of Duty titles among the annual ranks, with 2022’s Modern Warfare 2 is #7. The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom dropped to 3rd. The biggest mover was Super Mario Bros. Wonder, moving into 15th place after starting October outside the Top 20.
See below for the full list of November top sellers and full-year with only a month to go!
Top-Selling Games of November 2023, U.S., All Platforms (Physical & Digital Dollar Sales):
- Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3
- Marvel’s Spider-Man 2
- Hogwarts Legacy
- Madden NFL 24
- Super Mario Bros. Wonder*
- EA Sports FC 24
- Super Mario RPG Remake*
- Mortal Kombat 1
- NBA 2K24*
- UFC 5
- Assassin’s Creed Mirage
- Naruto X Boruto: Ultimate Ninja Storm Connections
- Sonic Superstars
- Star Wars Jedi Survivor
- God of War Ragnarök
- NHL 24
- Star Ocean: The Second Story R
- Marvel’s Spider-Man: Miles Morales
- Minecraft
- Just Dance 2024
Top-Selling Games of 2023 So Far, U.S., All Platforms (Physical & Digital Dollar Sales):
- Hogwarts Legacy
- Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3
- The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom*
- Marvel’s Spider-Man 2
- Madden NFL 24
- Diablo IV
- Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2
- Star Wars Jedi Survivor
- Mortal Kombat 1
- Starfield
- Resident Evil 4 Remake
- EA Sports FC 24
- MLB The Show 23^
- Dead Island 2
- Super Mario Bros. Wonder
- Final Fantasy XVI
- Street Fighter 6
- FIFA 23
- Elden Ring
- Remnant II
Hardware ended up being the most surprising part of the whole report, moving down 24% to $964 million, as opposed to over $1.27 billion in November 2022.
This means the segment has now turned negative for 2023, currently down 1% to $4.99 billion.
Declines certainly weren’t isolated to a single platform. Revenue for PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X|S and Nintendo Switch all dropped double-digits last month, with the Nintendo Switch experiencing the most precipitous drop. On units, while Xbox Series X moved up against last November, Xbox Series S sales were lower, thus dragging down that device family.
This result undoubtedly missed my expectations, which weren’t even that upbeat after October. Rather than supply, this is squarely on the demand side as people have already been purchasing the latest generation of devices and weren’t enticed by slight discounting or bundles. Also, buyers didn’t see a must-have exclusive on any platform last month, something that usually drives interest.
“Instead of seeing huge growth because we were comparing to a supply constrained market (like we saw last year), we’re seeing the reverse now,” Piscatella explained. “Where we are comparing to a period of elevated supply and existing demand getting satiated. This comp issue is going to be a challenge in December as well and will finally start settling out in January.”
Sony’s PlayStation 5 again led November, with the most units sold and dollars generated. Xbox Series X|S was the runner-up, while Nintendo Switch slotted in third.
Then there’s a newcomer in PlayStation Portal, a cloud peripheral oddly classified as hardware rather than an accessory even though it requires a console to even function. Well, it debuted in fourth place. Its output wasn’t helped by PlayStation shipping a low supply as anecdotally it’s been selling out at every retailer when there is stock available.
Across all of 2023, PlayStation 5 remains first for the year by units and dollars. Nintendo Switch is currently trending in second place by both as well.
Speaking of Nintendo Switch, Circana shared a quick tidbit. And we love tidbits! It passed the lifetime unit sales of Xbox 360 during November. It’s now behind only Nintendo DS and PlayStation 2 on the all-time domestic list.
Our final segment of Accessories is up next, and it’s the only one that showed growth. Sales here were up 3% to $303 million. Circana shouted out game pads in particular, which moved up 8%.
Intriguingly, this happened without the inclusion of the aforementioned PlayStation Portal. Which means it’s due to mostly existing peripherals and controllers. I’d imagine that instead of putting cash towards consoles, people in the U.S. were more interested in scooping up various accessories for the devices they or their families and friends already own.
Accessory sales are looking up 1% to $2.05 billion if expanding to the full year at present.
November’s best-selling device was Sony’s PlayStation 5 DualSense in midnight black, repeating its win from October.
I assume the PlayStation 5 DualSense Edge game pad remains the year’s top seller, although the report wasn’t specific in this regard. I’ll update this piece if I receive confirmation of this point.
While November was more lackluster than I expected, especially for console sales, spending declines were partly because of a high comparable last year and a softer Call of Duty start compared to its popular predecessor.
After back-to-back negative reports in October and November, there’s a whole lot of pressure on December to secure a fourth quarter to end 2023 on a high note. Personally, I’m not quite sure it’s going to get there, as I’ll now move into a quick set of predictions.
First, December. The big holiday month is upon us. While there’s plenty of enticing games to purchase in a year of incredible releases, I’m thinking overall monthly spend will be effectively flat, driven by a lack of new releases and continued downward pressure in hardware demand.
I think mobile will keep its solid momentum in Content, while a number of familiar faces will appear on the premium sellers list. Ubisoft’s Avatar: Frontiers of Pandora is the only AAA launch this month. I think it will have a Top 7 start, even during the busy holiday blast. Expect Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 to repeat as the top seller.
Within Hardware, I’m leaning towards a single-digit revenue decline in December. Microsoft announced a substantial price cut for the Xbox Series X yesterday, dropping it by a hundred bucks for a limited time. Even considering that, I believe PlayStation 5 tops December with Xbox Series X|S next up.
Now, what about the year as a whole? Circana and Piscatella are now weary of their original 3% growth prediction for 2023. Personally, I think a flat December will bring the year to effectively even, with slight upside towards 1% growth. Essentially, due to a declining fourth quarter, consumers will spend about the same amount as 2022.
Hardware is an easy call, as PlayStation 5 will undoubtedly sweep 2023.
The big question is for Content: Will it be the first time since 2008 that a Call of Duty or Rockstar Games title like Grand Theft Auto or Red Dead Redemption doesn’t win?
It’s a distinct possibility, especially with a shaky start for Modern Warfare 3. I’m usually stubborn. This time, similar to my The Game Awards prediction of Baldur’s Gate 3 winning (which happened), I’m updating my expectation. I now think Hogwarts Legacy will be the year’s best premium seller, breaking Activision Blizzard and Rockstar Games streak in a shocking upset.
Thanks for checking out this big recap. I recommend reading through Piscatella’s Twitter thread which has more details on Circana’s latest monthly report.
Check back soon for my annual Year-in-Review series. Happy Holidays to all!
Note: Comparisons are year-over-year unless otherwise noted.
*Digital Sales Not Included
^Xbox & Nintendo Digital Sales Not Included
Sources: Circana, IGN.
-Dom