Japanese gaming giant Nintendo shared its latest annual results today. I didn’t want to jump (like Mario, get it?) to conclusions, so I’ve read through carefully. The outcome? I’m equal parts impressed and cautious, the former due to the results themselves and the latter due to where executives see the company next year.
The good news is that the games manufacturer hasn’t experienced this sort of financial bump in years. In particular, software is performing incredibly well even compared to its estimates. It broke through the forecast of 110 million to an impressive 118.55 million copies sold during this latest year, on the strength of titles like Mario Kart 8 Deluxe and Super Smash Bros. Ultimate.
If the teams working at or with Nintendo are experts at one thing, it’s making compelling games specifically for its platforms. While Switch hardware numbers often grab headlines, it’s the quality of games that support its business. A console can’t succeed without the support of a software lineup.
Diving into some numbers for a moment, I’ve built the above chart to illustrate results over time and expand on my headline. This is net revenue, which is overall sales achieved by Nintendo. Current revenue figure is around $10.8 billion when converted to dollars, though the chart is in local currency.
Similarly the above shows operating profit, which takes into account certain expenses. Another quality result, driven by the higher revenue offsetting slightly increased sales including those from selling and marketing its products.
Downside though is that its current generation Switch console saw sales of 16.95 million units, which means it fell short of the 17 million Nintendo expected to sell during this time frame. In fact, this target was initially upwards of 20 million around this time last year. Turns out that both of these figures were optimistic.
Which leads me back to my point on software sales, and why they are so key to Nintendo’s success. Many individual offerings are maintaining impressive momentum, especially those we’d call “evergreen” which means they are more timeless than others. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe remains the best-selling title on Switch, hitting 16.69 million units compared to just above 15 million last quarter. For a game that technically had its start on Nintendo’s prior generation Wii U device, this is excellent and conveys the power of a fine family-friendly multiplayer game.
Super Mario Odyssey and Super Smash Bros. Ultimate round out the Top 3, with 14.44 million and 13.81 million copies to date respectively. While I expected stellar results from Odyssey, it’s Smash that is the real winner here, fighting its way towards the top of the list.
So. If it’s doing so well financially, and selling software, why might I be cautious?
Well, because of where Nintendo itself expects to go. It’s just as much about guidance as it is results. Guidance which I consider to be conservative, and even timid considering its upcoming prospects.
First, the firm anticipates 18 million Switch units and 125 million software units in the year ending March 2020, which would be up a modest 6% and 5% respectively. On the financial side, execs think both sales and profit will increase 4%. These are.. lackluster, though not entirely unexpected given this past year’s result and considering the new leadership of President Shuntaro Furukawa.
Given the rumors of new Switch models as early as this year, plus key software titles in Super Mario Maker 2 (announced for a late June release), Pokemon Sword & Shield and a new Animal Crossing, I was hoping for more ambitious targets from Nintendo. This is also supported by recent reports of expansion into the world’s largest gaming market of China, which to call a massive opportunity is an understatement.
Still. Maybe some of these drivers are further out that I thought. During the call associated with this earnings release, President Furukawa revealed they won’t be talking new hardware or revisions during June’s major Electronic Entertainment Expo (E3) event. We’ll have to wait further to see if the manufacturer will try to bolster sales using either a “mini” iteration or a more powerful version of the Switch. There’s also no timeline for the China expansion, so that could push further into future fiscal periods.
One additional point before we wrap up:
Nintendo’s foray into mobile continues, with the beta for the previously-announced Mario Kart Tour beginning this summer. This past year, mobile titles like Dragalia Lost drove growth of 17% within its mobile segment to just over $400 million in sales. It’s certainly a small portion of the overall business, however it’s the one segment that many cite, including myself, as having the best upside.
All told, Nintendo’s solid financial performance is undeniable. However, I see a disconnect between what I expect for its future prospects and what the company itself thinks. Similar to fans of upcoming games like Bayonetta 3 and Metroid Prime 4, which are currently listed as “To Be Announced” in Nintendo’s pipeline, I’m left both wanting and quite curious about what the future holds.
Sources: Nintendo Investor Relations. Bloomberg. Wall Street Journal. Fortune.