Tag: 2023

Circana Reports U.S. Games Industry Sales Growth in 2023 on Strength of Hogwarts Legacy, Monopoly Go & PlayStation 5

DomsPlaying

That’s right, it’s the final U.S. sales recap of 2023. A bit late, but here we are!

Earlier this month, Circana announced its December and full-year 2023 report on domestic games industry consumer spending. Both respective time frames showed slight growth, thus ending a shaky 12 months on a positive note.

Within the December holiday month, total sales rose a healthy 4% to $7.9 billion. Which means that overall, U.S. consumers spent more than $57 billion across gaming last year, an increase of 1% compared to 2022.

Two segments in Content and Accessories each moved up in the single digits during the year while Hardware output remained virtually flat.

On the premium software side, while Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 did secure the top spot in December, it couldn’t quite sell enough to outpace what ended 2023 as the year’s top seller: Hogwarts Legacy.

This win for Warner Bros marks the first time since Rock Band in 2008 that a game not in Activision Blizzard’s Call of Duty shooter franchise or made by Grand Theft Auto developer Rockstar Games led the yearly list. An exceptional, and mostly unexpected until right up until the final month, result.

A huge portion of the Content category is dictated by mobile where Monopoly Go became the big earner for both December and the year as a whole.

Elsewhere, Sony’s PlayStation 5 generated better supply throughout the year and saw consistent demand plus boasted a system-seller in Marvel’s Spider-Man 2, accelerating the family of consoles to best seller for December and 2023 when measured by both unit sales and dollar revenue.

“A 13% increase in spending on digital premium downloads on console platforms helped offset declines in physical software spending,” wrote Circana’s Mat Piscatella when talking about the year overall. “Growth in PlayStation 5 hardware dollar sales helped offset declines across both Xbox Series and Switch.”

No more time to waste. Read on for my full rundown, numbers and all, then a look ahead to 2024!

United States Games Industry Sales (November 26th to December 30th, 2023)

Across all of gaming during the holiday month, spending rose 4% to $7.91 billion. 2023 sales eclipsed $57.19 billion, up 1%. The largest contributor to growth was full game digital on consoles, highlighting the continued buyer shift towards downloads rather than retail purchases.

The biggest category of Content rose 3% in December to $5.73 billion, or 72% of the total which is slightly below the 73% a year ago. In aggregate across all of 2023, it moved up 1% to $47.97 billion. That’s an 84% contribution, same as 2022.

Mobile generated yet another month of gains, this time seeing spending increase 2.7% over the same time last year. All of the Top 10 earners experienced higher contributions than they did during November. December’s leading games were, in order of revenue, Monopoly Go, Royal Match, Roblox, Candy Crush Saga and Clash of Clans.

The report wasn’t specific about mobile’s contribution to the total 12 month period, however it did outline 2023’s Top 10 games by sales, which I’ve listed in full later in the article. Scopely’s Monopoly Go was the winner, followed by Candy Crush Saga and Roblox.

December’s premium software ranks showcased a number of familiar titles that launched in or before the month, with the only new game being Ubisoft’s Avatar: Frontiers of Pandora debuting in the 6th spot. Which I’d call quite a good start for the year’s last major AAA release.

As expected, Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 was the holiday month’s best seller. Next up was Super Mario Bros. Wonder moving up a few spots to 2nd, even without digital sales counted. It’s yet another fantastic showing for Nintendo, just ahead of Electronic Arts’ Madden NFL 24 rounding out the Top 3 as the football season entered its home stretch.

Expanding to 2023 as a whole, winner Hogwarts Legacy was the predominant sales story both domestically and around the globe. In addition to leading the annual U.S. chart, publisher Warner Bros claimed it was the world’s best-selling premium game. It generated well over a billion dollars in its first three months, moved 2 million copies globally in December alone and ending the year at 22 million. It’s now above 24 million.

Activision Blizzard claimed three titles in the Top 7, including two Call of Duty iterations in addition to Diablo IV. While technically a down year for the latest Call of Duty installment, this outcome shows the franchise is still among the top commercial successes, plus reveals that players didn’t need to move to the latest version in order to spend big money.

After Madden NFL 24 in third, Marvel’s Spider-Man 2 and The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom, both platform exclusives, rounded out the year’s Top 5. Which makes sense for Insomniac Games’ Spider-Man sequel after its record-breaking start. This was especially impressive for Tears of the Kingdom since it’s based solely on retail. That’s right, it was among the year’s five best sellers considering only boxes sold in stores. When these days digital often accounts for half of a title’s units, if not more, this was a momentous feat for Nintendo.

Another fantastic trend was the commercial success of fighting games as both Mortal Kombat 1 from Warner Bros and Capcom’s Street Fighter 6 charted at #8 and #17 respectively. On the Xbox side, Bethesda’s Starfield, while being on Game Pass and seeing a somewhat soured sentiment since the September launch, landed just outside the Top 10 in 11th place.

In addition to the charts based on revenue, Circana shared the most played games of December by Monthly Active Users (MAUs) from each major platform. Fortnite, Call of Duty and, of course, Grand Theft Auto V led on PlayStation and Xbox while Lethal Company, The Finals and Counter-Strike Go 2 saw the biggest engagement on Steam. Huge movers into the Top 10 included PowerWash Simulator at #9 on PlayStation and Goat Simulator at #7 on Xbox. Apparently, lots of people like doing chores or acting a fool in their spare time!

Check below for December and 2023 best seller lists, including the annual Top 10 mobile earners.

Top-Selling Premium Games of December 2023, U.S. (Physical & Digital Dollar Sales):

  1. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3
  2. Super Mario Bros. Wonder*
  3. Madden NFL 24
  4. Hogwarts Legacy
  5. Marvel’s Spider-Man 2
  6. Avatar: Frontiers of Pandora
  7. EA Sports FC 24
  8. Mortal Kombat 1
  9. NBA 2K24*
  10. Mario Kart 8*
  11. Super Mario RPG Remake*
  12. Sonic Superstars
  13. Minecraft
  14. God of War Ragnarök
  15. Star Wars Jedi Survivor
  16. Elden Ring
  17. The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom*
  18. Just Dance 2024 Edition
  19. Assassin’s Creed Mirage
  20. UFC 5

Top-Selling Premium Games of 2023, U.S. (Physical & Digital Dollar Sales):

  1. Hogwarts Legacy
  2. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3
  3. Madden NFL 24
  4. Marvel’s Spider-Man 2
  5. The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom*
  6. Diablo IV
  7. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2
  8. Mortal Kombat 1
  9. Star Wars Jedi Survivor
  10. EA Sports FC 24
  11. Starfield
  12. Super Mario Bros. Wonder*
  13. Resident Evil 4 Remake
  14. MLB The Show 23^
  15. Dead Island 2
  16. Final Fantasy XVI
  17. Street Fighter 6
  18. Elden Ring
  19. Mario Kart 8*
  20. Minecraft

Top-Selling Mobile Games of 2023, U.S. (Revenue):

  1. Monopoly Go
  2. Candy Crush Saga
  3. Roblox
  4. Royal Match
  5. Coin Master
  6. Pokémon Go
  7. Gardenscapes
  8. Jackpot Party Casino Slots
  9. Township
  10. Evony

Swapping over to the Hardware category, this one gained 4% in December to almost $1.6 billion.

Circana’s report pointed out that PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S generated revenue growth during the final month of 2023, while Nintendo Switch saw a double-digit percentage decline. That’s good news for Microsoft’s platform, even if it was spurred on by temporary price reductions. The last part there for Nintendo was mostly anticipated for the aging device, which is long past market saturation.

There’s no indication if the growth for either PlayStation or Xbox was in the double digits, however I’d imagine it was in the single digits since the report probably would have said so otherwise.

Topping the hardware list for December by units and dollars was, yet again, Sony’s PlayStation 5. I believe it won every month of 2023 except for May, when Nintendo Switch led on the heels of Tears of the Kingdom’s launch. In fact, Sony as a manufacturer generated a single month dollar sales all-time high in December, outpacing the prior record holder of December 2022.

Intriguingly, Nintendo Switch secured second place in December by units and revenue despite Xbox’s growth and the below comment from Circana.

“Xbox Series X|S set a new lifetime high in U.S. unit sales during the month of December,” Piscatella said on social media, documenting a new milestone for Microsoft’s latest console family. “The previous unit sales high for Xbox Series X|S was set in December 2021.”

After spending most of the year in the red, the Hardware segment’s solid holiday result moved it up to flat for the year at $6.59 billion in consumer buying.

PlayStation 5 topped the annual list by units and dollars. In fact, it was the only platform that gained ground when compared to 2022. Nintendo Switch was again the runner-up by both measures, as both Switch and Xbox Series X|S experienced declining annual sales.

Fitting with the general theme I’ve outlined in these write-ups before, 2023 was a banner year for PlayStation while Xbox maintained its inconsistency, although the latter did have certain bright spots in Starfield’s launch in September and holiday sales when discounted.

Accessories is up next, the final and fastest-growing of the three categories during both the holiday and 2023 overall.

During December, spending in this area rose 14% to $584 million. That’s a super healthy boost during the final month as people who purchases new generation consoles are now scooping up peripherals, including special editions and high-end controllers.

United States buyers purchased $2.64 billion accessories during the year, an increase of 4%. The report shouted out growth from game pads in particular.

Fitting that theme, Sony’s PlayStation 5 Dual Sense Edge was the top-earning accessory of 2023, after the premium pad won most months. Its continued momentum shows there’s ample demand for premium priced peripherals as the console cycle matures.

From a domestic spend perspective, 2023 was the definition of up and down, at least compared to the prior year. Exactly half of the twelve months showed spending growth, while all others saw lower sales than their 2022 counterparts. Only two months, May and September, produced double-digit gains.

There was a distinct lack of consistency, even with blockbuster launches and Sony’s concerted effort to produce more PlayStations. A return to hardware supply helped, as did mobile’s better contribution. Still, Nintendo Switch is long in the tooth, subscriptions are stagnant and the most recent Call of Duty installment under-performed.

“Subscription growth has flattened,” Piscatella wrote on Twitter. “And subscription services on console and PC platforms accounts for only 10% of total video game content spending in the U.S.”

In a broader historical sense, over a timeline including before COVID, it was still one of the best years of consumer spending in tracked history. Unfortunately, spending remains in stark comparison to the games industry labor market, which suffered a record number of layoffs globally in 2023 and is only accelerating early this year.

Speaking of 2024, it’s now time for my official predictions. I wrote a whole article with my expectations across the global industry, so here I’ll focus on solely what I expect from the domestic Circana reports before signing off.

In general for spending and where it’s going, I’m leaning towards keeping with my global prediction in that I expect the year to be close to flat with slight upside in the low single digits. That does include my assumption that Nintendo will in fact launch a Switch successor in the final calendar quarter.

Premium software is somewhat tricky considering the release slate is up in the air, especially for PlayStation and Nintendo. I think the rumored Call of Duty: Black Ops Gulf War will bring the franchise back to best seller status.

Beyond the sports games that will always appear, Star Wars Outlaws from Ubisoft will compete for a Top 5 spot if it’s out, as will a mainline Super Mario assuming it launches with Super Switch. Final Fantasy VI Rebirth has a good chance at Top 10 even on a single platform, and Tekken 8 will have a strong showing in the Top 15. I’m not expecting Marvel’s Wolverine to be out and don’t know what the heck to think about Suicide Squad Kill the Justice League, so I’ll say that one misses the Top 20. Just like Skull & Bones.

Hardware will be a juicy category. It’s almost a lock that Super Switch will be out in the back half. I’m on record saying I think adoption will start a tad slower than the original, then pick up over time. Considering Sony’s push to produce PlayStation 5 to make up for lost time during the pandemic, and its at least six to eight month head start, my bet is PlayStation 5 will take home hardware for 2023 with Nintendo as a close second, especially on units.

And, of course, I couldn’t leave without mentioning Palworld! I believe January’s big sales surprise, moving 8 million copies on Steam and topping the Xbox Game Pass list during its debut week, will be among 2024’s most-played titles. Especially if it leaves early access and launches on PlayStation.

That’s officially it for 2023. I highly recommend checking out Piscatella’s Twitter thread for the full Circana report, including individual platform charts and more engagement stats.

Be well, and see you soon for more this year!

Note: Comparisons are year-over-year unless otherwise noted.

*Digital Sales Not Included

^Xbox & Nintendo Digital Sales Not Included

Sources: Circana, Warner Bros.

-Dom

2023 Year-in-Review: Dom’s Top 10 Games of the Year

DomsPlaying

It’s the final day of 2023, what was a difficult year for the industry yet an incredible time for the games it produced, as you’ll see shortly when I describe my favorite experiences.

In my last post of this latest Year-in-Review series, and of 2023 itself, I’ll run down the ten best games I played then throw in five honorable mentions to celebrate even more developers.

Many folks are calling it the best year in gaming. I even posited if it might be in my 2023 trends recap. While I don’t know about that, since there’s an element of recency bias inherent in that argument, the quality was consistent across various genres at both triple-A and indie levels.

The ranks of my list this year include genres like computer RPG, third-person action, cooking sim, rhythm brawler, vania, soulslike, fishing adventure and survival horror.

For context, by my count I tried over 60 new games during the last 12 months. Whew. Talk about a busy one!

Raise a toast to the winners below, and enjoy your New Year everyone!

Dom’s Top 10 Games of the Year 2023

10. Remnant 2 (Gunfire Games, Gearbox Publishing)

Platforms: PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X|S, PC.

The sequel to 2019’s excellent, often overlooked Remnant from the Ashes went even bigger than its predecessor with its approach to narrative delivery and world-building, offering three bespoke areas to explore and bosses to defeat while keeping the crunchy core mechanics that make the series so enjoyable. Plus, who doesn’t love a game that offers a character class where you have a doggo friend that has skills, bites enemies and revives you?

9. Hi-Fi Rush (Tango Gameworks, Bethesda Softworks)

Platforms: Xbox Series X|S, PC.

The latest from Tango, known better for survival horror than action, came out of nowhere back in January as it stealth dropped on the day it was announced, resulting in a music action game that’s an easy contender for Surprise of the Year. Its characters are endearing while they navigate a syncopated, anti-corporate world that moves to the beat, offering an accessible path to the rhythm genre while incorporating platforming and a competent combat system within Bayonetta-esque battle arenas.

8. Marvel’s Spider-Man 2 (Insomniac Games, Sony Interactive Entertainment)

Platforms: PlayStation 5.

PlayStation owns a number of premier studios and Insomniac is its most prolific, producing a fantastic sequel that tells its own tale of heroes and villains while perfecting the traversal for which the modern Spidey series is now known, notably via its new wing suit. High production value shines in set pieces, visual flair and technical prowess as the team gives equal weight to the relationships, stories and personal moments for Peter and Miles as it does their suite of abilities to fight for their beloved New York City neighborhoods.

7. Alan Wake 2 (Remedy Entertainment, Epic Games Publishing)

Platforms: PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X|S, PC.

Over a decade in the making, Alan Wake 2 elevates beyond the innovative 2010 original to something that truly exists between indie film and brain-bending horror, a celebration of the auteur that forgets any boundaries of what an interactive medium can be. Even if it self-indulges into bonkers territory down the stretch, Remedy produced a gem, featuring at least two of 2023’s best sequences within its “We Sing” and “Old Gods” chapters.

6. Lies of P (Round8 Studio, Neowiz Games)

Platforms: PlayStation 5, PlayStation 4, Xbox Series X|S, Xbox One, PC, Mac.

I was sold on Lies of P since the moment Round8 Studio unveiled the “Pinocchio-souls” concept, and it managed to exceed expectations, moving beyond its inspirations to achieve its own high bar of quality that stands out among pretenders in the space. Its world is gritty, aesthetic is relentless, enemy design is impeccable and its twist on customization, especially being able to swap weapon parts to fit one’s build and change out P’s prosthetic arm, prove it has all the makings of a genre classic that isn’t made by FromSoftware.

5. Dave the Diver (Mintrocket, Nexon)

Platforms: Nintendo Switch, PC, Mac.

It it indie? Is it AAA? As long as you say Dave the Diver amazing, I don’t care what you call it. In a year of standout fishing games, Mintrocket hooked a spot in my Top 5 because it manages to make water levels both engaging to explore and easy to traverse with its fluid controls and nifty ability system, then deftly layers on a restaurant management simulator and a story centered around ecological rejuvenation.

4. Super Mario Bros. Wonder (Nintendo)

Platforms: Nintendo Switch.

The latest Super Mario installment is joyful, quirky and constantly charming while retaining the pinpoint precision of a proper platformer. Nintendo offers a suite of levels from novice to uber challenging, a plethora of playable characters (including kid-friendly ones) and both co-op and online multiplayer. Super Mario Bros. Wonder is a collector’s dream, adding a snazzy badge system with charged up abilities that only enhanced its masterful mechanics, running neck-and-neck with the classics as the franchise’s best 2D effort in over three decades.

3. Cocoon (Geometric Interactive, Annapurna Interactive)

Platforms: Nintendo Switch, PlayStation 5, PlayStation 4, Xbox Series X|S, Xbox One, PC.

Made by one of my indie studios of the year in Geometric Interactive, Cocoon is an instant success in the puzzle space, expertly executing its worlds-within-worlds mechanic while coaxing the player to feel like a genius with the lightest of touches. While its terrific art direction blends organic with robotic, its design smartly and subtly signals where and how to move through levels, the rare puzzler that doesn’t ever require a walkthru and never feels frustrating. My only minor complaint is I wish it had a sprint or dodge button; otherwise, it’s immaculate.

2. The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom (Nintendo)

Platforms: Nintendo Switch.

They’ve done it, yet again. Tears of the Kingdom ignores the massive expectations Nintendo itself set with the legendary Breath of the Wild, building on the foundation with a suite of interactive tools that would break a lesser game. Nintendo offers a chance to combine almost any item to form something new, build out massive machines, teleport through geometry and jump from the sky to depths in one fell swoop. The result is hilarious failure and constant fun.

Tears of the Kingdom is more about dominating a well-trodden map and familiar mechanics as Link gathers a team and connects a world to fight another imminent threat from his eternal rival. There’s an entire underground that mirrors the surface world, ramping up the survival aspects, plus a myriad of sky islands and cave systems to loot. The latest Zelda boasts some of the series best moments between its “Guidance from Ages Past” quest-line and an epic, emotional Master Sword set piece. The essence of adventure is at its best in this superb sequel that might top this list if it came out any other year.

  1. Baldur’s Gate 3 (Larian Studios)

Platforms: PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X|S, PC, Mac.

The industry never ceases to amaze and astonish, as I never thought I’d ever write this: Baldur’s Gate 3 is my Game of the Year. That’s saying something, and tells you just how special it is. I’ve never played Dungeons & Dragons in my life. I’m not the target audience of this kind of crunchy, turn-based role-playing game. What drew me in, and what made it my favorite game of 2023, is the writing, characters, world and exploration. It entranced me, as if under a spell, weaving its tendrils into my very soul.

Very few experiences have the sort of lasting effect, and I still haven’t even finished its last act!

The sheer size and breadth is breathtaking, without being bloated. Every part has been developed with intention. Baldur’s Gate 3 rewards consideration of every action, every relationship, every decision with the utmost care, as much as Larian Studios itself put into making a game of this miraculous scope and, frankly, absurd depth. I can’t begin to calculate the permutations, how every playthru will be personal yet all will have a similar level of quality.

For instance, my paladin rolls with tiefling barbarian Karlach, who is also my romantic partner, high elf rogue Astarion and half-elf cleric Shadowheart, alternating in the druid Halsin or fighter Lae’zel. I’ve heard of people turning these characters away, even killing them, all equally valid ways to progress! It’s not one of those games that pretends decisions mean something. It’s not Mass Effect with paragon versus renegade. It’s fluid. Dialogue and storylines react. Choice is everything.

I will say, it’s not perfect. The first act is the most polished, and there’s been plenty of bugs and save issues documented where Larian continues to issue patches fixing technical issues. Still, the fact that the story of this game is so positive even with these hiccups is a testament to its status as a masterpiece.

Similar to my 2018 winner Red Dead Redemption 2, it’s the exquisite attention to detail, the care put into every interaction, the nooks and crannies of the map that have their own stories, all of these and plenty more elevated Baldur’s Gate 3 to the top of this list, eternally cementing its place in history.

Honorable Mentions (Alphabetical):

Armored Cored VI: Fires of Rubicon (FromSoftware, Bandai Namco)

Platforms: PlayStation 5, PlayStation 4, Xbox Series X|S, Xbox One, PC.

Chants of Sennaar (Rundisc, Focus Entertainment)

Platforms: Nintendo Switch, PlayStation 4, Xbox One, PC.

Dredge (Black Salt Games, Team17)

Platforms: Nintendo Switch, PlayStation 5, PlayStation 4, Xbox Series X|S, Xbox One, PC.

Tchia (Awaceb, Kepler Interactive)

Platforms: PlayStation 5, PlayStation 4, PC.

Thirsty Suitors (Outerloop Games, Annapurna Interactive)

Platforms: Nintendo Switch, PlayStation 5, PlayStation 4, Xbox Series X|S, Xbox One.

Sources: Company Media Websites.

-Dom

Seven Major Games Industry Predictions for 2023

DomsPlaying

Now that the calendar has turned to January, it’s time to say goodbye to 2022. Which means it’s also time to, yet again, claim that I can accurately predict the future!

As I’ve done in recent years, I tend to kick off the new year by listing out a few predictions for the games industry across the next 12 months. These expectations can range across a number of topics: hardware, software, services, acquisitions, workplace trends and the value of the global games market.

Before diving into the new piece, I like to check back to hold myself accountable for the prior year. Here were my main predictions for 2022, where I successfully called that there would be more unionization, Nintendo wouldn’t announce a new Switch, Sony would rebrand PlayStation Plus and the impact of NFTs and blockchain would be felt in various places.

Misses included the sequel to The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild, now known as Tears of the Kingdom, launching (which it didn’t), the global games market would grow slightly (it declined slightly) and a new BioShock being announced (total long shot, I admit).

Focusing on the future, here’s a list of seven predictions, and a little bonus, for 2023. Let’s see how I fare this time around!

Microsoft & Activision Blizzard Deal Closes in Calendar 4th Quarter

I’ll rip the band-aid off right away. Apologies to everyone who is sick of hearing about Microsoft’s pending purchase of Activision Blizzard: This story isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. Especially now that regulators around the globe have sunk their teeth into the details. Rightfully so, for a deal worth upwards of $69 billion. Currently, the companies still expect the deal to close in June. Personally, I’m skeptical and think it moves back to around an October to December window.

Why? Inquisitive regional regulators in the United Kingdom and United States combined with a glacial legal system. The Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) in the U.K. will publish the results of its investigation in April. The U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC) is taking action to potentially block the acquisition, kicking off a legal battle that will commence trial in August. These things alongside delays due to likely appeals if the decisions go against Microsoft mean that I don’t think it meets the current estimate. I do, however, think it ultimately will close before year-end.

Nintendo Goes Another Year Without Announcing a Switch Successor

Continuing my main hardware prediction from a year ago, I’m not betting on Nintendo announcing any major Switch hardware in the upcoming four quarters. One of the best-selling consoles ever is still moving units quite well for this point in the life cycle. It’s trending towards being the top-selling console of 2022 in the United States by units according to The NPD Group as demand continues, especially from households that want multiple devices and a record-setting November start for Pokémon Scarlet & Violet.

While Nintendo reduced its fiscal year shipment target from 21 million to 19 million, plus the technology is certainly outdated, I don’t see much upside in executives revealing a new device in a year where The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom and potentially other flagship titles (Mario? Pokémon?) hit market. The transition to a successor will take a delicate touch, notably when it comes to backwards compatibility with the current library of games and usage of accessories. I’m targeting an announcement for what I hope is called Nintendo Super Switch sometime in 2024, with a release in first calendar quarter of 2025.

Global Games Industry Value Returns to Growth & Passes $188 Billion

Last year, I was more optimistic on the global games market value than I should have been when I thought it could increase a bit. According to NewZoo, the industry’s annual value is trending down 4% to $184.4 billion. This is driven by downward pressure from mobile and console segments, declining 6% and 4% respectively. The weakness in mobile is what I didn’t anticipate, and this category has an outsized impact on the overall figure since it makes up half of the total. Then there’s the limited supply of hardware throughout most of 2022, which didn’t really recover until the fourth quarter.

I expect the industry’s worldwide value to bounce back towards growth over the next 12 months. I could see 2% to 3% growth, which would translate to roughly $188 billion to upwards of the $190 billion milestone. Underlying this recovery will be a reversal of trends including a mobile spending rebound, improved hardware inventory, demand for consoles continuing, PlayStation VR 2 and a much more robust AAA software calendar due to previously-delayed games hitting storefronts. Indicators point to strong console demand alongside titles from major publishers, especially Xbox Game Studios, including various holdovers from the past couple years such as Hogwarts Legacy, Star Wars Jedi: Survivor, Street Fighter 6, Final Fantasy XVI, The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom and, hopefully, Starfield.

PlayStation 5 Wins Best-Selling Console in the U.S. Yet Misses Sales Targets

While we won’t know until this week’s full-year report from The NPD Group, PlayStation 5 is currently on track to be 2022’s best-selling console in the United States by revenue. GfK Entertainment said Sony’s latest was the top-selling device in the United Kingdom by units. I expect PlayStation 5 to outpace all peers and earn the win for both dollar sales and units in 2023 in key markets (other than Japan, where Switch is dominant). Supply data shows drastic improvement in the fourth quarter of 2022, and Sony’s own comments point towards further growth. Microsoft’s latest Xbox family isn’t generating as much in dollar sales because its high-end Xbox Series X is still tough to find, and Nintendo’s Switch is in its twilight years.

On the flip side, I’m skeptical Sony can reach its fiscal hardware shipment targets for the next couple years. I don’t see how it achieves a highly ambitious forecast of 18 million for the year ending March. At last count back in September, PlayStation 5 lifetime shipments were at 25 million. Sony announced during last week’s Consumer Electronics Show (CES) the PlayStation 5 family passed 30 million sold-through to consumers, implying at least 5 million shipped in the quarter ending December. That would bring the current year to 10.7 million, requiring upwards of 7.3 million during this month through March. Which isn’t going to happen. Going forward, speculation points to an even higher target for April 2023 to March 2024, where executives might guide to 30 million shipped in the year alone. Even if its suppliers are ramping up production as much as Sony claims, and consumers keep showing interest, that’s too lofty of a goal. I’m much closer to a 22 million to 23 million annual range.

Xbox Game Pass Price & Subscription Base Increases

Here’s a classic two-for, combining a couple of big Xbox predictions in a single entry. At first, these may seem at odds with one another since I believe both the monthly cost and overall user base for Xbox Game Pass will increase in 2023. Starting first with the bad news, it’s inevitable that Microsoft bumps the price of its subscription service. The last time Microsoft raised the monthly price of Game Pass was during 2020, when the PC version doubled from $5 to $10. Recently, Microsoft said full-game prices for Xbox Game Studios releases are going up to $70 this year. I’m thinking the Ultimate tier moves to $18, from $15, while the base version moves from $10 to $13 by next holiday season.

Even considering this, I bet the audience of Game Pass also grows in 2023. How many users did the service actually have in 2022? Sony claims it’s at 29 million. Microsoft told everyone it’s at 25 million almost a year ago. While it might be ambitious, I think Team Xbox will provide two updates on its flagship service during 2023. It can pass 30 million by its June fiscal year end, then achieve 35 million by December. There’s a number of benefits boosting the user base towards these milestones. It’s the prospect of first party projects like Starfield and Redfall, maybe a suite of Activision Blizzard titles, plus additional external partnerships especially with Japanese publishers that prove value will continue to rise even if the cost does too.

Special Year of Fighting Game Releases & Announcements

When it comes to genres that may define 2023, I expect fighting games to punch their way back into the spotlight. Relevance here will be boosted by a couple massive launches from legendary teams like Capcom and Bandai Namco alongside newcomers like Riot Games, in addition to select announcements of future titles. Starting with games set to launch, Capcom will produce another mainline entry in its Street Fighter series with Street Fighter 6 in June. Based on anecdotal evidence from its beta testing, people are way upbeat on this one after the disappointing predecessor. Then there’s Tekken 8 from Bandai Namco, which debuted a new trailer at The Game Awards and executives said could launch in 2023. Adding to the calendar might also be Riot Games’ Project L, an exciting twist on the League of Legends universe.

In terms of announcements and reveals, SNK said in August that Garou: Mark of the Wolves 2 is currently in development. Of course, the elephant in the room is Warner Bros’ NetherRealm, which hasn’t released a game since Mortal Kombat 11 back in 2019. If it sticks to the usual schedule, its current project should be Injustice 3. Back in October, NetherRealm’s Ed Boon said the team will share information “in due time.” I expect that time to be mid-year. Finally, I’m anticipating a surprise fighting game hit within the casual space, along the lines of last year’s MultiVersus. Could it be the return of PlayStation All Stars Battle Royale? Will Epic Games partner with every single brand and make the ultimate metaverse fighter? Which title will be the next to surprise the FGC and solidify 2023 as the Year of the Fighting Game? Your guess is as good as mine, though I certainly expect at least one breakout banger.

Amazon Games Makes Massive Studio Acquisition

First off, I have no real basis for this. There haven’t been rumors or speculation. It’s not based on inside information. It’s more of a hunch with the way Amazon Games has been aggressively pushing into the space, especially the past couple years with releases like New World and Lost Ark alongside a deal with Glowmade for a game based on original IP. It’s collaborating with the likes of Bandai Namco on the MMORPG Blue Protocol plus Crystal Dynamics for a future entry in the long-running Tomb Raider series. It partnered with Riot Games to host a Valorant event. The multinational retail conglomerate also owns streaming platform Twitch, and its Prime Gaming service continues to offer incentives for gamers to keep up Amazon Prime subscriptions.

I think Amazon’s level of investment accelerates in the next 12 months, during which it might even outright purchase one of the remaining independent gaming companies. Targets could include the likes of Electronic Arts, Square Enix, Take-Two Interactive or even Ubisoft, the last of which already has an acting relationship for streaming service Amazon Luna. If I had to bet, I think Ubisoft is a prime candidate. From a cost perspective, it’s more attractive than the likes of Electronic Arts. Square Enix has been selling off assets and refocusing towards NFTs. Take-Two seems to pride itself on remaining independent with its 2K Games and Rockstar units. It sounds like Ubisoft has fielded offers in the recent past, so Amazon might very well be looking into a potential buy already.

Bonus: Bungie Announces & Launches Destiny Universe Transmedia Property

You know I couldn’t finish the list without a fun bonus prediction! I think there’s a really good chance that we see what non-gaming projects Bungie has been working on within the Destiny universe. It’s no secret the developer is ramping up hiring for its transmedia offerings, including adding former Riot Games animation director Derick Tsai to become Head of Development for Destiny Universe Transmedia. Plus, now that Bungie is owned by Sony, I’d imagine there’s active chatter amongst Sony’s film and television divisions to adapt Bungie’s popular science fiction IP into different types of media.

To make this prediction better, I bet Bungie both reveals and launches a transmedia property based on Destiny in 2023, whether it’s a movie or show. The game has rich lore and great characters which I think could translate well into an episodic format. Similar to how the live game does seasonal content and weekly story drops. I’d love to see its world represented outside of gaming, exposing the excellence that is Destiny to an even broader audience than ever before.

Note: Comparisons are year-over-year and monetary values are quoted in US Dollars unless otherwise mentioned.

Sources: Foureyes Furniture on YouTube (Image Credit), Getty Images, GfK Entertainment, NewZoo, The NPD Group.

-Dom