Tag: Gaming

Let’s Count Just How Many Records Video Game Sales Set in April 2020

DomsPlaying1 Comment

April 2020 will go down forever as a tragic, horrifying month globally for many people enduring the coronavirus outbreak. My condolences to all those impacted, I wish you all the best during these trying times.

One silver lining at least is that video games are able to provide at least some relief from the monotony of social distancing and lock-down orders. And if sales are any indication, tons of people are most certainly getting their money’s worth.

Last month was a monumental one for video game industry sales, both domestically in the States and globally across digital marketplaces. It literally might have a record-breaking amount of records broken.

Just today both U.S. industry tracking firm The NPD Group and global digital data provider SuperData reported their respective figures for April, in what’s one of the single most newsworthy days in the history of gaming sales nerdom.

Rather than a more comprehensive deep dive into the myriad of stats, we’re going to do a rapid-fire recap of all the ridiculous statistics revealed today alongside lists of top-selling games both in the U.S. and globally by digital revenue. Then, I’ll get through a brief bit of commentary before we say goodbye.

Ready? Time to hit record.

Last month was a monumental one for video game industry sales, both domestically in the States and globally across digital marketplaces. It literally might have a record-breaking amount of records broken.

United States Games Industry Sales (April 5th to May 2nd):

Overall games industry spending increased a crazy 73% since this time last year, generating $1.5 billion. This is a record high for an April month, eclipsing that of April 2008’s $1.2 billion.

Monthly game software sales jumped 55% since April 2019, reaching the highest level ever for an April at $662 million. This beats out the previous record-holder again from April 2008, which totaled $642 million.

Within software, the most notable record is for Final Fantasy 7 Remake which led the monthly rankings chart and set a new franchise high for launch month dollar and unit sales, eclipsing that of Final Fantasy XV from 2016. Square Enix’s latest JRPG re-imagining is immediately the 3rd top seller of 2020 so far plus the best-selling PlayStation 4 title on the year.

It wouldn’t feel right if we didn’t mention Nintendo’s flagship hit Animal Crossing: New Horizons, even if the only record it set is short-term. The cute simulation and lifestyle game was ranked #2 on both the April and 2020 to date software charts. Its mini-accomplishment is that it’s the top-seller on Nintendo Switch as a platform over the past 12 months.

In terms of commercial successes we talk about every month, Call of Duty: Modern Warfare was the 2nd top-seller of April and is still the highest ranked game of both the last 12 months and 2020 itself. During its 7th month run since release, it’s the 4th fastest-selling game ever tracked by NPD Group. That fits my description of an “almost” record, so I’ll allow it.

Moving like Jagger to a game that’s the opposite of talked about each month, Just Dance 2020 is the quickest selling game in Ubisoft’s long-running franchise since Just Dance 2014. It improved its ranking on the monthly software chart, now at #11 in April after boogying to the 17th spot in March.

Quickly flipping to the hardware category, overall dollar spend is so close to being a record that it gets like half a point. Console sales reached $420 million during April 2020, up a whopping 163% versus this time last year. April 2008 refused to be dethroned this time, as it maintains the best April month ever when it generated $427 million.

Within the Hardware segment, Nintendo Switch held the #1 spot for the 17th straight month. Here comes the real doozy: During 2020 so far, its sales are the highest of any single platform in the history of domestic tracking for the first 4 months of a year outpacing even the Wii over a decade ago in April 2009. Incredible, especially in a time with supply concerns.

Not only that! Dollar sales of the “Big 3” consoles in the Nintendo Switch, PlayStation 4 and Xbox One all increased more than 160% year-on-year with Xbox One generating the best growth although NPD Group did not reveal an exact figure. From a unit sales standpoint, each of these hit record April amounts according to Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter:

Switch: 808,000

PlayStation 4: 411,000

Xbox One: 329,000

Last category here is accessories and game pads, which generated $384 million in monthly sales for an increase of 49% since April 2019. Record alert! Consumer spend on game pads reached a high for an April month, clearing almost twice as much as last year’s amount. PlayStation 4’s Dual Shock 4 black controller topped April’s list, while Nintendo’s Switch Pro Controller is still the best for 2020.

Want another record? I’ve.. heard we got one for ya. Spending on headsets and headphones achieved the best April month in history, beating out that of April 2018. Last month also boasted record results for Steering Wheels and Game Cards. Note that we didn’t hear exact figures for any of these sub-categories, only that they had their best April months of all time.

I feel like we all need a breather after so many records. Let’s look at the full domestic software charts for both last month and year-to-date before going global.

Top-Selling Games of April 2020, U.S. (Physical & Digital Dollar Sales):

  1. Final Fantasy 7 Remake
  2. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare
  3. Animal Crossing: New Horizons*
  4. NBA 2K20
  5. Grand Theft Auto V
  6. Resident Evil 3 Remake
  7. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 Remastered
  8. MLB: The Show 20
  9. Madden NFL 20
  10. Red Dead Redemption 2
  11. Just Dance 2020
  12. FIFA 20
  13. Mortal Kombat 11
  14. Borderlands 3
  15. Predator: Hunting Grounds
  16. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe*
  17. Star Wars Jedi: Fallen Order
  18. Persona 5: Royal
  19. Need for Speed: Heat
  20. Dragon Ball Z: Kakarot

Top-Selling Games of 2020 So Far, U.S. (Physical & Digital Dollar Sales):

  1. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare
  2. Animal Crossing: New Horizons*
  3. Final Fantasy 7 Remake
  4. NBA 2K20
  5. Dragon Ball Z: Kakarot
  6. MLB: The Show 20
  7. Grand Theft Auto V
  8. Resident Evil 3 Remake
  9. Madden NFL 20
  10. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe*

Gaming allows individuals to escape into new, exciting worlds where they don’t have to worry about a pandemic. Or they can at least virtually fight back against one.

Worldwide Digital Games Industry Sales (April 2020)

Expanding to the global games market, let’s check out digital sales estimates from SuperData via its usual monthly report. In general, this only includes digital downloads and additional revenue through in-game transactions thus excludes physical copies sold.

And again to confirm, these are internal estimates as opposed to say publisher data.

Spending on digital games around the globe surpassed a monumental $10.5 billion during April 2020 which is the highest month ever and growth of 17% since last year. Ding ding. Another record!

Driving this figure was a jump in console sales of 42%, mobile growth of 14% then PC sales moving 12% higher. Of course this is temporarily bolstered by lock-down orders, as gaming has become a popular way to defeat the inevitable boredom that sets in from staying home. The question becomes how long can it last?

Diving into more individual game results, usual suspect Animal Crossing: New Horizons sold 3.6 million digital copies in April which is down slightly from the record 5 million in its launch month of March. Still, it was the top-selling console game on the worldwide chart. Here’s this month’s record: After only two months on market, it’s already the top-selling Nintendo Switch title as measured by both digital unit sales estimates and dollar revenue from downloads.

The aforementioned Final Fantasy 7 Remake, which was the best-seller in the States during April, achieved the 2nd spot on the global digital rankings. Since we’re certainly counting, its total of 2.2 million digital downloads set multiple records for a launch month. This is the best digital result within the franchise ever, plus it’s the fastest-selling PlayStation exclusive to date beating out Marvel’s Spider-Man in 2018 by a slim margin. A win is a win!

While not a record, Resident Evil 3 Remake achieved another notable result during April 2020. Capcom’s latest remake in the long-running horror franchise eclipsed 1.3 million digital units sold during this its launch month, slightly below the 1.4 million of its predecessor in 2019’s Resident Evil 2 Remake.

Back to the records. Last month, League of Legends hit its best player count of all time and spending in Grand Theft Auto V on in-game content reached its highest level ever. Ongoing games continue in their appeal, as people gather virtually to either compete or work together collaboratively.

This leads into the full charts from SuperData estimates for global digital sales. Take it away, fancy image.

Top-Grossing Console Games of April 2020, Worldwide, Digital Sales:

  1. Animal Crossing: New Horizons
  2. Final Fantasy 7 Remake
  3. FIFA 20
  4. Grand Theft Auto V
  5. NBA 2K20
  6. DOOM Eternal
  7. Fortnite
  8. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 Remastered
  9. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare
  10. Resident Evil 3 Remake

Alright. I believe I’m fully on record proving how April was a record-breaking month. Counting them up, there are more than a dozen here which is likely some sort all-time high.

My reactions? No one could have predicted this, not even as recently as a couple months ago. This is absolutely unprecedented, even if for the wrong reasons during a tragic time for our world history.

Gaming as much as any other medium is benefiting because of the feeling of connection caused by sharing on social media or gearing up with others online. There’s local play, which helps pass the time with the very few loved ones with which we can spend time. Gaming allows individuals to escape into new, exciting worlds where they don’t have to worry about a pandemic. Or they can at least virtually fight back against one.

It’s not much in the way of analysis to say that April was one of if not the most noteworthy sales months this generation. What’s difficult to say is how long it will last with all the uncertainty surrounding the scary longevity of coronavirus and the potential for a vaccine. I’m thankful that people have games to entertain, especially those on the front lines working hard for our safety, and that for now many have enough disposable income to spend.

As the summer starts here and new PlayStation 4 games like The Last of Us Part 2 and Ghost of Tsushima release then Nintendo launches Paper Mario: The Origami King, where will the broader economy be, what level of unemployment will we see and how will sales look going into the marketing cycle for next generation consoles?

Let’s celebrate April for what it was, while acknowledging we have a long way to go outside of games.

As always, please check out NPD Group Analyst Mat Piscatella’s thread for many more details plus friend of the site Jeff Grubb’s recap on Venture Beat on the domestic report, then SuperData’s site for the global update. Thanks for reading, be healthy!

^Digital PC Sales Not Included, *Digital Sales Not Included, #Digital Sales on Consoles Included

Sources: Media Play News, NPD Group, Square Enix, SuperData Estimates, Venture Beat.

-Dom

Earnings Calendar Apr & May 2020: Gaming, Media & Tech Companies

DomsPlaying

I know it may feel like time means nothing these days, so trust me when I say that it’s earnings season once again.

It’s our quarterly ritual of learning more about how companies are doing, in particular those across gaming, technology and media spheres. And it will be an especially eventful one to hear how the global coronavirus pandemic is impacting companies at a more micro level. Many companies are also reporting annual figures, summarizing a full year of business dealings.

Up top is the calendar image, below is a Google Docs sheet with this same information that provides easy access to links. It’s fluid as I’ll be adding either new names or updated dates throughout the next few weeks.

Working Casual Earnings Calendar Apr & May 2020: Gaming, Media & Tech Companies

In what’s going to be an unorthodox quarter for many companies, some of which delaying statements or keeping dates fluid, here are three that stand out where we should pay close attention.

Activision Blizzard, Inc. (ATVI): Tue, May 5th

With the introduction of Call of Duty: Warzone in early March, domestic publisher Activision Blizzard blasted into the free-to-play battle royale competition. And made an impact immediately. The game amassed over 6 million players within a day, 15 million in less than a week, 30 million over 10 days then over 50 million users in a month. This trajectory is notably faster than Epic Games’ Fortnite Battle Royale (which admittedly exploded later in its life cycle) and around the same as Apex Legends from Electronic Arts. The question becomes how is the publisher monetizing these users. I expect people are spending a lot in the game, so it should have a significant impact in this first quarter of its new fiscal year which is normally a slower one for new releases.

Nintendo (NTDOY): Thursday, May 7th

No-brainer here. Nintendo released Animal Crossing: New Horizons on March 20th, both tragically and opportunistically in the middle of a global lockdown, and it’s the talk of the industry. Everything is pointing to it being one of the Japanese company’s best new launches ever, plus it’s pushing hardware sales despite production shortages. As I wrote recently, it set franchise records here in the States for first month sales and achieved a Top 3 start ever for a new Nintendo game. It’s already over 3.6 million boxed units in Japan per Famitsu. And that’s only physical sales!

SuperData estimated 5 million digital copies sold globally in March alone. I expect its digital split to be 40% even 45% given the world right now, meaning we haven’t yet seen the full extent of its upside. Will likely achieve the biggest debut for a Switch title since launch in 2017. We’re talking 11 to 12 million unit sales in under a couple weeks. It’s the type of silver lining story that helps distract people during times like this, and I expect it to drive one of the best ends to a fiscal year that Nintendo has seen in years.

Square Enix: Mid May

Although its filing date is still up in the air, there’s no question I’m intrigued by what Square Enix will say about a handful of topics during its annual results. Any sort of update on Final Fantasy 7 Remake sales, which surpassed 3.5 million units within three days of release earlier this month, would give an indication of the game’s momentum even if it released after this fiscal year end. Updated financial guidance overall from the Tokyo-based company given its upcoming slate that includes Marvel’s Avengers in September and Outriders during late 2020 would of course be telling. I tend to not expect much in the way of details, but we know changes in estimates can tell a lot even when a company withholds specifics.

Thank you again to all the healthcare and essential workers for your tireless effort in today’s uncertain world. I hope you are able to take time away from the job, and even chat it up here or on Twitter for a fun distraction.

Source: Activision Blizzard, Company Investor Websites, Nintendo of America, Famitsu, Final Fantasy Twitter, SuperData.

-Dom

Animal Crossing: New Horizons Rings in a Rallying of March U.S. Sales Results

DomsPlaying1 Comment

In the pantheon of Nintendo’s most popular games, people normally think of franchises like Mario, The Legend of Zelda and Smash Bros.

In 2020, it’s time to officially add Animal Crossing to the list.

The latest entry in the long-running, family-friendly simulation series entitled Animal Crossing: New Horizons is a massive commercial seller since its release last month. It’s the main driver behind a stellar March sales result domestically, undoubtedly boosting both software and hardware gains.

Attribute performance to pent up demand resulting from the last mainline entry being way back in 2012, the transition from its handheld hardware to the big screen on Nintendo Switch plus the tragically convenient timing of launching alongside enormous appetite for design, creation and social collaboration during a global lock down.

These myriad of factors caused New Horizons to achieve the top spot on the March 2020 software rankings in the United States, according to a new report from NPD Group. Easily the best launch ever for the series. It’s immediately the second best-selling game of 2020, leap-frogging everything except Call of Duty: Modern Warfare as Activision’s premier military shooter moves up to number one.

In what’s a staggering statistic, New Horizons generated the 3rd highest launch month sales of any game ever published by Nintendo in the history of domestic tracking behind only Super Smash Bros. Ultimate in late 2018 and 2008’s Super Smash Bros. Brawl. That means it’s above any Mario or Zelda, as storied as they might be.

Keeping with the theme of ridiculous numbers, launch month unit and dollar sales have already exceeded the individual *lifetime* sales of every other entry in the internally-developed Nintendo Animal Crossing franchise. Yes. It took less than a month on market to beat the overall results of those games.

What’s most impressive is NPD Group tracking doesn’t even include digital downloads for Nintendo games. This is strictly based on physical, boxed sales. Considering the stay at home orders across the world, I wouldn’t be surprised if digital contributed upwards of 40% or more overall. (Purely speculation. No quotes.)

A rising tide does lift all boats in this case. And that boat is more than likely used to get to one’s island in Animal Crossing, if sales are any indication.

Changing it up (heh) to another major software release of March, PlayStation 4 exclusive baseball series MLB The Show continues its quiet consistency on the charts. This year’s entry MLB The Show 20 hit third on the March software rankings, sliding in just below Call of Duty: Modern Warfare (which keeps on with its momentum, achieving an all-time high for a March month, might I add).

The Sony Interactive Entertainment San Diego studio creation is the top seller on the PlayStation 4 individual platform chart for March, plus already a Top 5 performer for the year to date overall software list. This year’s game yet again set another launch month franchise record, same as last year’s MLB The Show 19. It’s the definition of consistency, hitting the charts strong every single time.

(Who caught all the puns?)

Plenty of other new games dotted the March overall software chart. Capcom’s zombie remake Resident Evil 3 achieved the fourth spot and reached #7 on the list of 2020 best-sellers to date. DOOM Eternal from Bethesda Softworks went on a tear to #6. Worth noting that Bethesda is another publisher that doesn’t include digital sales, thus performance for DOOM Eternal accounting for downloads could be even better.

Two recent Japanese games charted in the States during March: Persona 5: Royal from Atlus/Sega lands an impressive start at #7 while Koei Tecmo’s Nioh 2 barely misses the top 10, debuting at the 11th spot.

Finally, Nintendo’s Pokémon Mystery Dungeon: Rescue Team DX achieved a Top 15 start while Activision Blizzard’s Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 Remastered rounds out the Top 20 even with a surprise, timed limited release solely on PlayStation 4.

Following the above highlights, here are the full overall software rankings for March 2020 then the year to date.

Top-Selling Games of March 2020 (Physical & Digital Dollar Sales):

  1. Animal Crossing: New Horizons*
  2. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare
  3. MLB: The Show 2020
  4. Resident Evil 3 Remake
  5. NBA 2K20
  6. DOOM Eternal*
  7. Persona 5: Royal
  8. Grand Theft Auto V
  9. Borderlands 3
  10. Mario Kart 8: Deluxe*
  11. Nioh 2
  12. Red Dead Redemption 2
  13. FIFA 20
  14. Super Smash Bros. Ultimate*
  15. Pokémon Mystery Dungeon: Rescue Team DX*
  16. Madden NFL 20
  17. Just Dance 2020
  18. Star Wars Jedi: Fallen Order
  19. Mortal Kombat 11
  20. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 Remastered

Top-Selling Games of 2020 So Far (Physical & Digital Dollar Sales):

  1. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare
  2. Animal Crossing: New Horizons*
  3. Dragon Ball Z: Kakarot
  4. NBA 2K20
  5. MLB: The Show 20
  6. Grand Theft Auto V
  7. Resident Evil 3 Remake
  8. Madden NFL 20
  9. Mario Kart 8: Deluxe*
  10. Star Wars Jedi: Fallen Order

Last month’s whopping result for Switch came in above this figure, likely upwards of a million or even more units. For a single month in one territory, this is incredible. It reveals how important quality software is to drive hardware sales years after initial launch, something Nintendo has perfected by now.

Let’s put these software starts in context and take a broader look at industry spending in March.

In a busy month, overall domestic consumer spending reached $1.6 billion which is an increase of 35% since this time last year. In fact, it’s the highest result in more than a decade for this particular time frame. The last time a March month generated higher sales was way back in 2008, at $1.8 billion.

Last month, dollar spending on software alone jumped 34% to $739 million in what was the best March month since 2011’s $787 million. Out of the top ten overall titles listed above, all but one of them generated higher sales than those at the same ranks last year.

Hardware spending increased a massive 63% since March 2019. Nintendo Switch was the best performer of course, more than doubling its sales year-over-year. Still, even its major competitors in PlayStation 4 and Xbox One both saw monthly increases above 25% using the same time frame comparison. This shows that it wasn’t just Nintendo’s release slate that provided a bump.

Expanding on Switch console sales, it was the single best month in the history of Nintendo’s hybrid console on the strength of the aforementioned Animal Crossing: New Horizons. That’s right. Last month was better than even its launch three years ago, the prior record holder. And that’s with supply constraints this year!

Let’s quickly review for context. Unit sales for Switch back during its launch month in March 2017 reached approximately 906K. Which means last month’s whopping result for Switch came in above this figure, likely upwards of a million or even more units. For a single month in one territory, this is incredible. It reveals how important quality software is to drive hardware sales years after initial launch, something Nintendo has perfected by now. Just when you think it can’t top itself, it does.

The final category measuring spending is accessories and game pads, up 12% since last year to $397 in March. This is a record high for a March month for both accessories, previously achieved back in 2008, and game pads as well. The top-selling game pad was the Nintendo Switch Pro Controller last month, while PlayStation 4 hit its best ever combined game pad spending during a March month.

A rising tide does lift all boats in this case. And that boat is more than likely used to get to one’s island in Animal Crossing, if sales are any indication.

Before we wrap, it’s not all great news unfortunately.

Broadening the scope tells somewhat of a different story for the first quarter overall. Year-to-date spending as a whole is down 4% since this same time last year, hitting around $3 billion. This covers the same categories of hardware, software and accessories and game pads.

Two of these categories are lower compared to 2019: software and accessories and game pads. Consumer spend on software titles during 2020 so far dipped 8% to $1.4 billion, while accessories and game pads weakened to $905 million, 3% off year-on-year. Which means that even with the new release boost last month, the earlier months in 2020 are dragging.

Even so, Switch and hardware buck the trend for the quarter. Hardware sales rose nearly 10% to $773 million during 2020 so far. Here’s the main factor: When talking unit sales, Nintendo Switch saw the best quarter for *any* platform, regardless of manufacturer, since a decade ago in 2010 when it was achieved by the Nintendo DS. A major Q1 hit will certainly do that.

To summarize, March ends up being an exciting month for video game sales and the industry for those teams releasing new games especially. Partially a byproduct of those major software launches, somewhat due to the coronavirus impacting buying and playing habits. It’s a sad, tragic situation for the world right now. One of the few bright spots is being able to enjoy video games, which means some staggering statistics for a March month here in the States.

I highly recommend sifting through NPD Analyst Mat Piscatella’s thread on Twitter where he provides even more detail, notably on individual platforms. He also posted a follow-up piece at the NPD Blog to give more insight into Animal Crossing in particular.

Another month and quarter in the books. And it was a wild one. How did your predictions go? What’s the biggest surprise? Are you somehow one of the few people like me that isn’t playing New Horizons? Swing by in the comments or Twitter to chat.

Lastly, I hope you and your families, friends and loved ones are safe during this difficult time. Shout out to everyone working at essential jobs and healthcare. You are heroes. Thanks for reading!

^Digital PC Sales Not Included, *Digital Sales Not Included, #Digital Sales on Consoles Included

Sources: Activision Blizzard, Go Nintendo, Nintendo of America, NPD Group, Sony Corp.

-Dom

Will PlayStation 5 Launch This Year? Sony Thinks So, But What About Me?

DomsPlaying

These days, amidst a serious global pandemic with far-reaching economic impact, it’s impossible to be sure of anything in gaming and tech.

Which is why it’s notable that people familiar with Sony’s production pipeline say the company is still on target to launch its upcoming PlayStation 5 (PS5) console by year-end, according to a report today from Bloomberg.

Sources claim that the coronavirus outbreak has affected the company’s promotional roll-out and marketing strategy more than production of the console itself. Which would explain why we still don’t know what it looks like or, most importantly, how much it will cost at its scheduled launch later this year. (At least PlayStation Blog revealed the new DualSense controller last week to sate the rapid appetite for hints as to the aesthetic of Sony’s final product.)

Part of why the Japanese firm will reportedly still meet the late 2020 release window for PS5 is that its roll-out will be more limited than the PlayStation 4 (PS4) back in 2013. Sources say the console maker is informing production partners it intends to ship between 5 and 6 million PS5 hardware units between Q4 launch and March 2021 fiscal year end.

Compare this to the PlayStation 4 console after its November 2013 release: That hit 4.2 million and 3.3 million unit shipments during its first couple quarters respectively, for a total of 7.5 million in the fiscal year ending March 2014. So at best, internal estimates put the PS5 launch down 20% versus the prior generation. At worst, this forecast leads to a 33% dip.

It’s worth noting that this early production would be above 2006’s PlayStation 3 output of 3.5 million consoles during its first half year, as noted in this CNET piece.

On the personal prediction side, I’m expecting closer to the lower range of Sony’s PS5 guidance. 5 million to 5.5 million range. As I’ll expand on later, I’ve decided to remain conservative in today’s landscape.

Estimates and speculations reported by Bloomberg are quite revealing about Sony’s overall approach. It shows executives pressing forward to hit market by the holiday season despite anticipating lower output, a move which it hopes to make up for in volume on the back-end.

The other intriguing part of the equation and Bloomberg’s report is the exact topic on which I speculated in a recent article: How much will PS5 cost?

Developers interviewed for the piece imply a launch price of $499 to $549 in US Dollars, which would be a dramatic increase compared to where PS4 started at $399. In my aforementioned article debating about price, one of the most important points is the rumored cost to make PS5 totaling $450. Which leaves little room for margins if priced below that low end of developer speculation.

Main reason for the higher launch price seems to be its beefier specs, higher component costs driven and part scarcity. (I’d wager a costlier marketing campaign plays a factor, too.) Many tech products require the same kinds of components to build, and are sourced from China and related Asian markets, which were generally hit by the coronavirus earlier than the West. It follows that the launch price is most certainly impacted by the pandemic, there’s no avoiding it.

I was wavering in my personal price estimate after hearing the final technical specs. Now with the developer input plus knowledge of continued component shortages, I’m upping it to a minimum of $449 with the more likely outcome being $499. It’s just not realistic to expect Sony to take a significant loss per unit in this environment and while forecasting softer sales.

These estimates and speculations reported by Bloomberg are quite revealing about Sony’s overall approach. It shows executives pressing forward to hit market by the holiday season despite anticipating lower output, a move which it hopes to make up for in volume on the back-end. Not only that, its employees are working remotely which makes it more difficult to finalize plans both logistical and financial or meet with the external teams responsible for making the hardware itself.

Another element to the company’s strategy is potential discounts on current PS4 generation console versions plus offering services like PlayStation Plus in order to recoup the loss of hardware sales. If the PS5 is in shorter supply, can Sony entice people to stick around its ecosystem by selling PS4 this late in the generation? I’m skeptical on that play. The market is saturated as it is, with nearly 109 million PS4s in circulation already. If it’s just a couple more months of waiting, people will save that money to put it towards the next generation. Especially given that PS5 is backwards compatible with software on its predecessor.

I was wavering in my personal price estimate after hearing the final technical specs. Now with the developer input plus knowledge of continued component shortages, I’m upping it to a minimum of $449 with the more likely outcome being $499.

Good news for Sony in terms of marketing strategy is it’s much more viable to do a digital-only events these days, even for major product reveals. Normally hardware companies will host a huge in-person media event during a console unveiling. Given where we are at with the coronavirus and government mandates, this is unrealistic for the short to even mid-term and coincides with when Sony would want to ramp up its advertising campaign.

There’s also the question if Sony is still waiting for Microsoft to make its first move on release date and pricing for its Xbox Series X. Tough to know, since competitors monitor each other of course however each have their independent plans. Honestly, I don’t expect Microsoft to commit to a release date or cost soon. So Sony will either have to keep waiting and delaying its formal reveal, or make the first move and risk being beat on price or market date.

These points all lead back to the topic: Will Sony stick to the current schedule to release this year or have to push the PS5 launch date to 2021?

My answer: I believe that’s what Sony wants to do, even if it’s not necessarily what will happen.

Production pipeline estimates from Bloomberg’s sources say that suppliers are already getting parts to those that assemble the console. Broader PS5 production is expected by June. Which indicates that Sony is steadfast in its plan to reach consumers this year during a unified, global launch.

Thing is, it’s difficult to predict the future even without the variable of a pandemic. Components aren’t guaranteed to be in the same supply even weeks from now let alone months. There may be follow-up outbreaks that impact employees at those suppliers and assemblers. Even separate of the virus, production disruptions can happen for any number of reasons.

Once the console is built, there’s the added layer of retailers and their ability to attract customers. Then the economic impact on disposable income in Sony’s key markets. Where will demand be when people are recovering from what could be the worst recession since the Great Depression?

Many parts of the world are still on lock down. So many people aren’t working. Even when the situation turns more positive in a broad sense and worldwide cases dwindle, people start thinking of a return to normalcy, there’s the risk of follow-up outbreaks. I might be the most pessimistic in this context as I’m expecting this will last a lot longer and we shouldn’t expect it to change quickly.

The further Sony goes without revealing the console and its price, the more likely we’ll see the delay to early next year. It also depends on what Microsoft does with its Xbox Series X roll-out of course, however they are experiencing the same exact conditions as Sony when it comes to part suppliers and manufacturing pipelines.

There’s the strong possibility we see one of two things from Sony:

  • Soft initial roll-out of PS5 leading into the holiday season with low shipments and decreased sell-through to consumers until 2021.
  • Broader delay of its global console launch until Q1 of 2021, when retailers and distributors are more secure and demand has recovered.

Right now, I’m predicting the first scenario. Yet most certainly will not rule out the second.

Either way, my estimates parallel with Sony predicting that if the PS5 launches this year, shipments should be down compared to last generation when component costs are impacted by supply. Not to mention the appetite for expensive, new technology is subdued and won’t recover until next year. If the launch happens in 2021, I’m more optimistic on initial shipments and people’s willingness to spend.

What about you? Are you team Late 2020 or Early 2021? Feel free to get back to me here or Twitter on your expectations! Thanks for reading.

Note: Prices quoted here are using US Dollars.

Sources: Bloomberg, CNET, New York Times, PlayStation Blog, Sony Corp.

-Dom

Dragon Ball Z: Kakarot Highlights Quiet January U.S. Games Sales Report

DomsPlaying

Here we have the first domestic sales report of the new decade from video game industry tracking firm NPD Group, hot off the presses this morning.

As anticipated based on where we are in the console cycle, January saw consumer spending down in the double-digits both overall and within each major category of hardware, software and accessories. Even recent bellwether Nintendo Switch couldn’t escape declines. Still, I’ll shout out a handful of bright spots in terms of individual software results plus the latest figures for a top-end controller from Xbox.

Let’s talk specifics.

January is traditionally a type of recovery month after the holiday sales rush, however in recent years we’ve seen companies like Capcom capitalize with flagship games early in the year. This time the slate was even quieter than usual. Which means that Bandai Namco capitalized fully with its latest project Dragon Ball Z: Kakarot, the best-selling game of January in the States based on dollar sales.

This is actually the first time in tracking history that a game in the long-running Dragon Ball Z franchise has topped the monthly rankings. Dragon Ball Z: Kakarot also experienced the 3rd best launch month in series history. The only two games ahead of it are Dragon Ball FighterZ, during its debut at #2 in the January 2018 chart, and Dragon Ball Z: Budokai around 18 years back.

Publisher Bandai Namco recently shared during a conference call that Dragon Ball Z: Kakarot shipped 1.5 million units globally within a week of its January 16 release date. This is slightly below the record-breaking 2 million copies for Dragon Ball FighterZ a couple years back, yet still obviously impressive. Early in the year continues to be an advantageous time to hit market. And this latest report from NPD proves that is domestic share here in the U.S. is quite healthy.

Broadening the scope to overall spending as mapped in the above chart, January’s total dollar sales across the industry hit $678 million. Off 26% compared to the same time frame in 2019. This is partially due to the aforementioned sparse release schedule, compounded by last year boasting the likes of Capcom’s Resident Evil 2 Remake and Kingdom Hearts 3 from Square Enix during this early window. Then of course both PlayStation 4 and Xbox One getting increasingly long-in-the-tooth.

I’d also posit that the major success of Super Smash Bros. Ultimate in late 2018 to early 2019 impacted Nintendo Switch’s year-over-year performance comparison, thus contributing to the wider weakening.

Consumer spending on software reached $311 million last month, a figure that’s 31% lower than January 2019. In what was the most pronounced decline of the three individual categories, hardware spend dropped 35% to $129 million. The notable part here is that even Nintendo Switch experiencing a decline in customer spending, when it’s been growing most months amidst its competitors doing the opposite.

Rounding out the segments, accessories and game pads generated $238 million in sales. 11% lower than the same month 2019. It’s the best result in terms of comparisons, albeit still in that double-digit decline territory.

This is actually the first time in tracking history that a game in the long-running Dragon Ball Z franchise has topped the monthly rankings. Dragon Ball Z: Kakarot also experienced the 3rd best launch month in series history.

Delving into software, we’ve already touched on the success of Dragon Ball Z: Kakarot. As a result of this, Call of Duty: Modern Warfare drops to the second spot on the monthly chart. Of course it retains its standing as the best-seller of the last 12 month period due to its immense success and continued momentum during the holiday months.

The next notable in the month ending January is Star Wars Jedi: Fallen Order from Electronic Arts, which stays within the Top 5 this time at #4. The sixth best seller of last year has maintained a consistent position domestically since mid-November, and this enthusiasm has translated globally as well. Its publisher said during its latest earnings conference call that the game from Respawn Entertainment hit the upper range of its original guidance. Implying 8 million units shipped. The company even said it now expects 10 million copies by March. Sounds like single-player games aren’t dead just yet.

Familiar titles from Rockstar Games moved up the chart in January too, as 2013’s Grand Theft Auto V returned to a Top 5 ranking and Red Dead Redemption 2 rode to the Top 10. Publisher Take-Two Interactive released updated global unit sales figures for these behemoths last week during its financial report, sharing that Grand Theft Auto V reached 120 million and Red Dead Redemption 2 eclipsed 29 million. The online modes in particular for these traditionally narrative-driven series are bolstering momentum, plus Grand Theft Auto is the type of series that new console buyers purchase out of the gate.

Final item in the software rankings that caught my eye is Ring Fit Adventure. Nintendo’s latest foray into motion-controlled exercise software. The game launched in mid-October, landing at #10 during that monthly report. Ring Fit Adventure has returned to the Top 10, climbing to #9 in its best result since launch. Global unit sales hit 2.17 million in December, which is well above my personal expectations for one of Nintendo’s signature experimental type of titles. The legs on this exercise-meets-role playing game are as impressive as those one could tone up while using it.

Check below for the full rankings during last month and last 12 months.

Top-Selling Games of January 2020 (Physical & Digital Dollar Sales):

  1. Dragon Ball Z: Kakarot
  2. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare
  3. Madden NFL 20
  4. Star Wars Jedi: Fallen Order
  5. Grand Theft Auto V
  6. NBA 2K20
  7. Super Smash Bros. Ultimate*
  8. Mario Kart 8*
  9. Ring Fit Adventure
  10. Red Dead Redemption 2
  11. Minecraft#
  12. Pokémon Sword*
  13. Luigi’s Mansion 3*
  14. Star Wars: Battlefront 2
  15. The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild*
  16. Need for Speed: Heat
  17. FIFA 20
  18. Just Dance 2020
  19. Mortal Kombat 11
  20. Pokémon Shield*

Top-Selling Games of the Last 12 Months (Physical & Digital Dollar Sales):

  1. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare
  2. NBA 2K20
  3. Madden NFL 20
  4. Borderlands 3
  5. Mortal Kombat 11
  6. Star Wars Jedi: Fallen Order
  7. Tom Clancy’s The Division 2
  8. Super Smash Bros. Ultimate*
  9. Grand Theft Auto V
  10. Mario Kart 8*

Ring Fit Adventure has returned to the Top 10, climbing to #9 in its best result since launch..

The legs on this exercise-meets-role playing game are as impressive as those one could tone up while using it.

Flipping over to hardware numbers during January, Nintendo Switch was yet again the top selling gaming console. It’s held the top spot each month since November 2018, yet this time is especially noteworthy. Not because of its success but the fact it experienced a decline compared to the first month of 2019. The residual sales of Super Smash Bros. Ultimate must have had more of an impact of those from Pokémon Sword and Pokémon Shield this year. Which makes sense. Super Smash Bros. Ultimate is the best-selling fighting game of all time in the States, after all.

As we’ve seen recently and will continue to see until late this year, hardware is somewhat lackluster right now. Still, I’ll keep an eye on where Switch goes with Animal Crossing: New Horizons launching in March with a bundle that’s on sale for pre-orders now. A major caveat here is how much the ongoing coronavirus will impact Nintendo’s hardware pipeline, as the company noted production delays locally in Japan due to the outbreak. Will this hit the U.S. and other territories to impact supply in the short term?

In terms of the other platform holders in Sony and Microsoft, both have upcoming launches this year so it’s natural to see slowing sales at this stage. Still, NPD Analyst Mat Piscatella helped put overall sales to date in perspective for the PlayStation 4 and Xbox One with the following quote:

“After 75 months in market, the combined installed base of PS4 and Xbox One in the US market is 6% higher than that of the PS3 and Xbox 360 and 16% above PS2 and Xbox. Premium console gaming remains strong.”

Which means we must always keep everything in context, think broader rather than focusing on independent data points, despite how temporarily gloomy these numbers feel at a surface level.

The last of the three broader categories is accessories and game pads, which saw less pronounced declines than its software and hardware counterparts. The story here is the Xbox Elite Series 2 controller as it’s held the top spot every month since it hit market in early November 2019. Even more newsworthy is it’s now the fifth fastest-selling accessory within this segment in the history of tracking, as measured by the first three months on sale. The high-end game pad option is proving to be popular despite its lofty price tag.

For those wondering, the two fastest-selling accessories ever within their first three months are Kinect bundles for Xbox 360, the third on this list is the standard DualShock 4 black model for Sony’s PlayStation 4 then the fourth quickest is the Wii Remote bundle. (Who am I kidding? I know you were all wondering!)

This brings us to the end of the latest U.S. monthly report, a somewhat pedestrian one at that. Though not unexpected. I was pleasantly surprised by Dragon Ball Z: Kakarot and continue to respect the over-performance of Star Wars Jedi: Fallen Order, Ring Fit Adventure and the Xbox Elite Series 2 controller in particular. Nintendo Switch saw a tough comparison to last year, which warrants monitoring especially given its full software pipeline for the first half of 2020 is still unclear.

We’ll regroup again next time. Definitely check out the thread from friend of the site Mat for additional details right from the source. Thanks for reading!

^Digital PC Sales Not Included, *Digital Sales Not Included, #Digital Sales on Consoles Included

Sources: Activision Blizzard, Bandai Namco, CNBC, Electronic Arts, Nintendo, NPD Group, Take-Two Interactive.

-Dom

Sony, Ubisoft, Activision & Take-Two Earnings Recap: It’s a Numbers Game

DomsPlaying

As you likely read recently at my post of this quarter’s earnings calendar across gaming, tech and media, this week was an especially busy one for these industries.

In addition to the likes of Twitter and Disney, we saw gaming giants share updates on their recent financial results. Today I’ll both summarize and analyze Sony, Ubisoft, Activision and Take-Two reports and highlight the most important parts driving each business. Plus, chat some about predictions and where these companies are going in the near future.

I hope to.. hm, earn your confidence as we work through these because it should be a good one!

Sony Corp: Tuesday, February 4th.

Japanese media and gaming conglomerate Sony Corp reported a number of updates across its myriad of businesses for 3rd quarter of fiscal 2019, including its Gaming & Network Services (G&NS) business which houses its PlayStation brand and continues to be its main revenue source.

Notably, Sony announced that its PlayStation 4 hardware has now passed 108.9 million consoles shipped globally after moving 6.1 million during the holiday quarter. As expected later in the console cycle, this quarterly figure is down from 8.1 million last year. Still, the company reiterated its current forecast of 13.5 million consoles for the full year, implying we’ll see another 1.4 million come the end of March.

In terms of software within G&NS, PlayStation 4 game sales totaled 81.1 million copies in the quarter compared to 87.2 million in Q3 of 2018. 49% of these full game sales are now digital, when last year it was 37%. After its Q1 report hit 53% digital back in June, Sony is certainly on track to see at least 40% digital share this fiscal year which would be the first year ever it’s crossed this threshold.

Switching over to the services side, its PlayStation Plus subscription service, which offers online multiplayer access, hit 38.8 million registered users versus the 36.3 million player base last year. This increased subscription audience drove Network Services to be the only sub-segment within G&NS growing this quarter on dollar sales.

Speaking of dollars, Sony overall generated $22.4 billion in sales and operating revenue which is up 3% since last year on strength in its financial services and imaging businesses. Operating income however experienced a decline of 20%, to $2.73 billion. Within G&NS, sales dipped 20% to $3.3 billion with operating profit down 27% to just under $490 million due to lower hardware and external software sales. That PlayStation Plus user increase did help to offset this.

You’ll see in the chart above that even aggregating over the last 12 month period, during which sales were approximately $18.8 billion for its gaming business, the decline is tangible. It’s more pronounced than I even expected leading into the formal reveal of its PlayStation 5, due this holiday season. Partially due to the major success of titles like Red Dead Redemption 2 and Marvel’s Spider-Man driving sales during last year’s comparable time frame.

Sony’s higher network services revenue shows the growing importance of ecosystem and subscriptions to keep an audience engaged especially late in the cycle, helping to smooth out performance plus offset weakness in hardware and full game sales.

Within the PlayStation business, Sony realigned its segment reporting which I’ve presented above. Both digital software and add-on content and hardware sales experienced double-digit declines, though network services gained nearly 10%. Sony’s higher network services revenue shows the growing importance of ecosystem and subscriptions to keep an audience engaged especially late in the cycle, helping to smooth out performance plus offset weakness in hardware and full game sales.

Looking forward, the firm actually boosted its overall guidance slightly for sales and operating profit for the full year, though lowered these projections within its PlayStation unit, which means it expects a lower contribution than before. My personal take is that this quarter’s result is a bit lower than I anticipated, though certainly fits with where the major manufacturer and software producer is at ahead of its next console release in the back half of this year.

It’s going to be lackluster for a few more quarters leading into PlayStation 5, and I’m intrigued to see how its network services and subscriptions perform in the interim.

Ubisoft Entertainment SA: Thursday, February 6th.

Yesterday’s third quarter sales announcement from French video game publisher Ubisoft was lighter on the details than its competitors. But there’s still plenty to discuss (and speculate, of course)!

From the numbers side, sales for the nine months ending December dipped 16% to $1.23 billion which is on pace to come in well below the firm’s initial expectations due to softer sales of games like Tom Clancy’s Ghost Recon Breakpoint and Tom Clancy’s The Division 2 in particular. Ubisoft did point out that Just Dance 2020 is.. this is an easy one, performing well. Digital equates to nearly 80% of total sales, a figure which includes both digital game downloads and in-game purchases.

Because of somewhat weaker results for new titles, back catalog sales are propping up its recent numbers. Revenue of these older titles hit nearly 69% of business compared to 62% in the same period last year. Assassin’s Creed Odyssey from 2018 saw a major rise in unit sell-through plus engagement compared to its predecessor Assassin’s Creed Origins. 2015’s Tom Clancy’s Rainbow Six Siege is still showing excellent momentum years after launch, boasting 55 million registered players and record active users for a December month.

Unfortunately, Ubisoft doesn’t share much in the way of profitability metrics outside of annual reporting. I’d imagine it’s facing a similar trend in declines, perhaps even more pronounced because of rising costs associated with developing games that it delayed a few months back. It did reiterate its full-year sales targets for both this fiscal year ending March and the following one, showing early confidence in its adjusted release schedule.

At a personal level, I’m extremely excited for Ubisoft’s robust lineup after the type of year it’s had with core franchises. At an analyst level, I’ll remain intently skeptical all targets will be met until we hear exactly how these games will roll-out.

Speaking of its development pipeline, we’ve arrived at the best part of Ubisoft’s press release and conference call. The rest of this fiscal year through March is light. No major releases. Looking forward, CEO Yves Guillemot highlights the internal organizational restructuring in an attempt to strengthen its most important titles, which means the firm reiterated its plan to release five new triple-A titles between October 2020 and March 2021. Now we’re getting somewhere.

I spoke with Ubisoft Investor Relations briefly over email to confirm that three of these flagship games are targeted for the October to December window while the remaining two are slated in January to March. Three of these five have been formally announced: Watch Dogs Legion, Gods & Monsters and Rainbow Six Quarantine.

The worst kept secret in the industry is that a Norse-themed Assassin’s Creed game is on the way this Fall, so let’s mark that down as the fourth. My ongoing assumption for the final one is a new mainline Far Cry, thereby crushing the hopes of Splinter Cell fans everywhere yet again. Kotaku’s Jason Schreier claims that these are both true, so we essentially have an unofficial confirmation of its full fiscal year lineup.

It’s an ambitious schedule, especially for this upcoming holiday quarter during the launch of consoles from Microsoft and Sony. Ubisoft is usually one of the most dedicated supporters of a new generation, capitalizing on the updated tech and fervent early adopters. It sounds like this time it’s no different, although I wouldn’t be surprised if only two projects end up releasing before December and the remainder sometime during the first half of calendar year 2021. Having three titles jam-packed into the holiday quarter risks cannibalization, especially given how most of these games feature some sort of open world or action elements.

Now these aren’t the only pending games from the publisher. Guillemot points out it does have more intimate ones, as he describes them as “very innovative titles that have a particular focus on social interaction.” Main example being Roller Champions. I’d imagine there’s also a mobile game from internal studio Social Point or perhaps a new UbiArt style project made by a smaller team.

At a personal level, I’m extremely excited for Ubisoft’s robust lineup after the type of year it’s had with core franchises. At an analyst level, I’ll remain intently skeptical all targets will be met until we hear exactly how these games will roll-out.

Activision Blizzard: Thursday, February 6th.

Out of those reporting this week, domestic publisher Activision Blizzard was the only one with a fiscal year ending in December. Thus it shared both fourth quarter and annual metrics.

Twice the fun!

For the quarter, results exceeded internal expectations with net revenues of $1.99 billion though were down compared to the $2.38 billion generated last year. Operating income totaled $454 million, off from the $694 million in fourth quarter 2018. Nearly $1.29 billion of sales, equating to 65% of the total, were from subscriptions, licensing and micro-transactions rather than retail product sales or full game downloads. That’s the model for these major software makers going forward, after all.

Across the full year, Activision Blizzard generated almost $6.49 billion. Which is down a billion bucks since 2018. 76% digital share in 2019, essentially flat compared to the 77% in prior year. Operating profit reached $1.61 billion, down from the near $1.99 billion. Which means that while results beat the firm’s estimates, the trend is certainly down for the company overall.

What really caught my eye when looking at what’s driving these figures is the distribution of sales for the full year across its Activision, Blizzard and King businesses. Historically, Activision is top dog. That fits the narrative this year, as its split is 36% of total sales and 41% of profit. However, mobile subsidiary King is now in second place, which means the overall firm is now benefiting more from its casual phone offerings like Candy Crush than traditional games made by its storied Blizzard studios.

It’s clear that flagship franchise Call of Duty from Activision is as strong as ever. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare unit sales and engagement stats are up strongly compared to last year’s Call of Duty: Black Ops 4. Around half of Modern Warfare console sales are now digital, helping it become the best-selling game in the States during 2019 as I wrote about recently. Then there’s Call of Duty Mobile, which now has over 150 million downloads after one of the biggest launches in history.

On the Blizzard side, dollar sales ended the year at $1.72 billion which is down 25%. Monthly active users dipped 3 million since this time in 2018, now at 32 million. It’s a mixed bag for this division, where growth for Overwatch and World of Warcraft driven by a resurgence of interest for its Classic version couldn’t offset declines in Hearthstone and Diablo. It’s been an intriguing time for Blizzard in recent years, with a focus on continued support of older franchises rather than new releases. There’s Overwatch 2 in the pipeline, with no launch window. And I’m still skeptical of how fans will react to it. Then there’s Diablo IV, which I have to believe is a long ways out. This trend is likely to continue for the short to medium term.

Mobile subsidiary King is now in second place, which means [Activision Blizzard] is now benefiting more from its casual phone offerings like Candy Crush than traditional games made by its historic Blizzard studios.

Tying in with this is the last major item: its forecast for next year plus its mention of new titles. Activision Blizzard expects to generate $6.45 billion in revenue during 2020, slightly below this year’s figure. Guidance for earnings is also down 5%. Factored into this forward-looking guidance is.. surprise! A new Call of Duty project set to release in the last quarter of 2020.

Thing is, I’m not sure what else will drive its performance. Blizzard is set to focus again on continuing games like WoW, then a test phase for phone game Diablo Immortal in the middle of 2020. King reportedly has multiple new mobile games in development. On its conference call, Chief Financial Officer Dennis Durkin alluded to these not having material impact on guidance.

So, what will? Well, friends, we’ve reached the highlight. Activision Blizzard is sitting on a goldmine of legacy properties that it hasn’t leveraged as well as competitors. To that end, the company expects to “tap into our portfolio of beloved IP to bring several remastered and re-imagined experiences to our players in 2020, which we will announce closer to launch” according to Durkin.

In recent years, the company’s seen success with collections like Crash Bandicoot N. Sane Trilogy and Spyro Reignited Trilogy, the former being a major commercial win at 10 million units shipped. This type of quote shows that executives at least acknowledge the value of such brands. The issue becomes that fans of these franchises desire new games yet the quote is ambiguous. Will it continue to be more of the same or might we see new projects within these nostalgic series? Apparently we should hear sooner than later.

Take-Two Interactive: Thursday, February 6th.

Finally this brings us to the last one up. Another stateside developer/publisher in Take-Two Interactive, owner of historic labels Rockstar Games and 2K Games plus the Private Division publishing arm and mobile subsidiary Social Point. Take-Two reported its third quarter of fiscal 2020 results via the usual press release, then went in-depth on its conference call highlighting sales results of all its major franchises. (My favorite part.)

The way I’ll tackle Take-Two is talking broadly about its quarterly figures then drill into its owned businesses. Net revenue overall reached $930 million, down from $1.25 billion. Mostly because of the comparison to the massive launch of Red Dead Redemption 2 this time last year. Operating profit hit $177 million, down from $303 million in 2018 Q3.

Of its total sales, 37% is now from recurring spending; a metric which grew 15% this quarter and represents virtual currency, add-on content and in-game items. This drove the digital share to 75% of full revenue for the quarter. The company also reported that around 41% of its business originated from catalog sales, mainly those within the Grand Theft Auto and Red Dead Redemption franchises plus mobile titles from Social Point.

2K Games, which the company estimates will be around 55% of its business this fiscal, benefited from ongoing sales of NBA 2K20 as it now totals 8 million units shipped to date since its September release. Roughly on part with its predecessor. This quarter’s slate included the launch of Sid Meier’s Civilization VI on console, Borderlands 3 and NBA 2K20 for Stadia (neither of which I imagine contributed materially) and WWE 2K20.

Borderlands 3 continues its better-than-expected start since release a few months back, now totaling 8 million units sold-in. This is after moving 5 million copies within a five day span near launch. Take-Two notes that while it expects lifetime sales to achieve a record within the franchise, it’s factoring lower sales for Gearbox Software’s latest into its annual forecast.

On the flip side, WWE 2K20 saw a lackluster launch that drastically under-performed the firm’s internal estimates on both the critical and commercial sides. Developer Visual Concepts is working to rebound, though I think this year’s iteration is down for the count.

Still, the cash cow for Rockstar continues to be Grand Theft Auto V. A game which apparently isn’t yet in the homes of every single person who owns a gaming console because its lifetime copies shipped hit a whopping 120 million in the holiday quarter.

One of the most consistent and frankly notorious teams in the business is Rockstar Games, which will account for 35% of Take-Two’s annual net bookings. Its main release this past quarter was Red Dead Redemption 2 on PC around the year anniversary of its console version, which drove lifetime unit sales for the game to over 29 million. This is up from 26.5 million copies as of September, proving the impact of the new platform plus the ongoing adoption of Red Dead Online for which CEO Strauss Zelnick said engagement tripled year-on-year.

Still, the cash cow for Rockstar continues to be Grand Theft Auto V. A game which apparently isn’t yet in the homes of every single person who owns a gaming console because its lifetime copies shipped hit a whopping 120 million in the holiday quarter. That’s 5 million more than the prior quarter. No one at Take-Two or really anywhere in their wildest dreams could have predicted this sort of longevity.

A part of this crazy momentum is the ongoing success of Grand Theft Auto Online, which somehow achieved a record audience size in December and in the quarter overall. Recurring spending from consumers on GTAO jumped 54% this quarter after a new expansion in the Summer. Take-Two expects this online mode to have a record fiscal year in terms of recurring consumer spend. Keep in mind: The base game released in 2013, and its online mode really picked up steam the following year. Honestly doesn’t seem to be stopping anytime soon.

Moving to Private Division, its major release during Q3 was The Outer Worlds which debuted on Xbox Game Pass in addition to its console and PC platforms. Obsidian Entertainment’s recent space role-playing title, which earned a Top 5 spot on my 2019 Games of the Year list, has now sold-in 2 million copies since October. And that doesn’t even include downloads from Xbox Game Pass, nor its Nintendo Switch release which is set for sometime before March 2021 (I’d imagine even sooner).

Another quick note is that Kerbal Space Program, the first game in a franchise now run by Private Division, is approaching a new sales milestone itself by reaching nearly 4 million copies shipped. The company reiterated that its sequel is due in fiscal 2021 as well.

Switching over to the broader company’s outlook for the full year, it adjusted the numbers slightly though I wouldn’t say it’s a substantial impact. Basically it tightened the range in which its revenue expectations, then slightly lowered its profit guidance. As you’ll see above, net revenue should be up however net bookings will contract. I’m not as concerned as other industry commentators, as I think this quarter and year look a whole lot worse than they really are because of just how ridiculously well Red Dead Redemption 2 did.

I’d even argue Take-Two’s upcoming lineup is just as intriguing as Ubisoft’s, even if we don’t know as much about its major projects. Speaking on its development pipeline, Zelnick called it the “largest and most diverse in our history, including releases from our largest franchises, new IP and a broad mix of gameplay experiences.”

Sure, that’s a bit of corporate speak. It’s still somewhat indicative of where one of the industry’s premier software players is going. Shorter-term, this implies to me new annual releases in the NBA 2K and even WWE 2K franchises, new platforms for existing titles plus ongoing content for the online modes in its main games.

Medium to long term is where it gets exciting. First and foremost, the filing announcing the departure of former Rockstar Games co-founder and vice president Dan Houser said the team is working on both “current and future projects.” Where does Rockstar goes with its upcoming slate now that its model has changed to fostering player retention via online modes rather than solely single-player experiences? Will there be a Grand Theft Auto VI? The answer is yes, we just don’t know what form it will take with this different ideology. I’m more curious about what games Rockstar might have that aren’t Grand Theft Auto.

Then there’s (my beloved) BioShock. Take-Two announced a new studio called Cloud Chamber this past quarter, which is currently developing the next iteration in the series. Within this earnings release, the company reiterated that it will be in the works for “several years.” While it isn’t factored into the immediate forecast, I’m ecstatic to hear how it progresses.

Executives even fielded questions on other teams such as Hangar 13, known for Mafia 3, then the newly-formed 2K Silicon Valley led by industry veteran Michael Condrey. Sounds like these are in fact actively working on projects, we just can’t hear about them yet.

I’d say Take-Two’s current position is summarized by President Karl Slatoff as he echoes his CEO’s sentiment: Its pipeline consists of “new IP and existing franchises, free-to-play games, different business models, casual games, core games, mid-core games” about which they will share more in upcoming months.

While I don’t expect Take-Two to have a major presence during this year’s set of console launches outside of sports titles, we’ll undoubtedly see it capitalize on the new tech in the mid-term. And who knows, maybe Rockstar will surprise us?

—

Well then. That’s a pretty darn comprehensive look at the week that was in games industry financial reporting if I say so. Spiced up with my takes (as varying in quality they might be).

Reflected across all four is the trend of ongoing digital and services attempting to offset the contraction in hardware resulting from next generation beginning this holiday season, plus development plans that will ramp up at various points in the future. Ubisoft seems to be the most immediately impacted with its recent delays, while Activision and Take-Two lean on recurring sales from their biggest budget franchises to soften the blow while we await new tech from hardware manufacturers and emerging platforms alike.

If you made it this far: You rock! Thanks for reading.

Note: All comparisons are year-over-year unless noted. Currency conversions are to U.S. dollar as of February 7, 2020 for the sake of comparison.

Sources: Company Investor Relations & Media Sites, Getty Images, Kotaku, The NPD Group.

-Dom

New U.S. Video Game Sales Report Reveals the Best Sellers of 2019 & the Decade

DomsPlaying1 Comment

It’s the last sales report of the decade!

Last night, industry tracking firm NPD Group shared a number of figures on the U.S. games market for December, 2019 as a whole plus the entire decade beginning way back in 2010. Get ready for lots of juicy stats!

Not wasting anytime, let’s start with December and expand to broader time frames after that.

During a period that includes the usual holiday push, domestic consumer spending in December totaled $3 billion which is down around 15% since last year’s figure. Softness occurred in all major categories, as gains for Nintendo Switch couldn’t offset other declines.

Software spending in December landed at $1.1 billion, 13% lower than last year’s corresponding month. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare was again the month’s top selling title. Separately, the Hardware segment dipped 17% to $973 million as Nintendo Switch continues its streak as the month’s best-selling platform. The final category of Accessories & Game Cards saw consumers spend $869 million during the month, which is down 14% year-over-year. The Xbox Elite Wireless Controller Series 2 marked its second straight month leading this category.

We can attribute continued weakness here to tough comparables in late 2018 which featured the popularity of games like Red Dead Redemption 2 and Marvel’s Spider-Man, plus the sustained strength of Fortnite which really bolstered accessory sales last year in particular. We know this later console cycle decline is expected, though December 2019 is more pronounced than it would be due to record-setting software releases last year.

The chart below courtesy of NPD Group shows monthly comparisons within each segment during Decembers of the past five years.

Here’s the list of the top selling games for the month of December.

Top-Selling Games of December 2019 (Physical & Digital Dollar Sales):

  1. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare
  2. Star Wars Jedi: Fallen Order
  3. Madden NFL 20
  4. NBA 2K20
  5. Luigi’s Mansion 3*
  6. Pokémon Sword*
  7. Mario Kart 8*
  8. Super Smash Bros. Ultimate*
  9. Pokémon Shield*
  10. Minecraft#
  11. Grand Theft Auto V
  12. Red Dead Redemption 2
  13. FIFA 20
  14. Just Dance 2020
  15. Need for Speed: Heat
  16. The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild*
  17. The Legend of Zelda: Link’s Awakening*
  18. New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe*
  19. Super Mario Party*
  20. Ring Fit Adventure

Before moving into 2019, I’d like to shout out a couple individual team accomplishments.

Star Wars Jedi: Fallen Order was released in November and held the second spot in the chart for a second month in a row during December, plus jumped up the annual ranks to 6th overall as we’ll see in a bit. With only a couple months of tracking, the third-person action game is now officially the best-selling of all time from developer Respawn Entertainment, known mostly for creating the Titanfall series. The team had a heck of a year between this and free-to-play hit Apex Legends.

Switching to sports, PlayStation 4 exclusive MLB The Show 19 is now the top-selling baseball game ever in the States since tracking began in the mid-90s. Based on dollar sales since its release in March 2019, it passed up MVP Baseball 2004 to take the top spot within this specific segment. Considering all the titles released over the years plus it being a platform exclusive really shows how much of a home run Sony’s San Diego Studio scored in 2019.

Speaking of 2019, let’s expand our discussion to chat on full year figures. Graphic above maps out the last few years as a reference.

Overall games industry spending in 2019 reached $14.6 billion, which is off 13% compared to 2018. Within this total, annual spending on Software declined 9% to $6.6 billion. Nintendo Switch console games experienced growth, the only platform to do so. Hardware sales in 2019 dropped 22% to $3.9 billion, while Accessories & Game Cards category dipped 7% to $4.1 billion. On the year, the Nintendo Switch Pro Controller led all accessory sales.

Switch itself was of course the major story of the year on the console side, as it led each monthly chart during the year and was the top-selling platform of 2019. Its new Lite model bolstered demand after its release in September such that the family as a whole saw annual gains compared to 2018. At last count, Nintendo announced Switch sales in the Americas passed 15 million units, which is just over a third of the latest global figure. Titles like mainline Pokémon and the surprising Luigi’s Mansion 3 plus ongoing support for Super Smash Bros. Ultimate contribute to its continued popularity as Nintendo takes advantage of a brief lull in the life cycle of other platform manufacturers.

In terms of individual software, it’s no surprise that Call of Duty: Modern Warfare was the year’s leading seller after dominating the monthly chart since its release back in October when it shot to the top of the year-to-date list. This marks the 11th straight year that a game in the franchise has led the annual chart, as seen below by the full rankings.

Top-Selling Games of 2019 (Physical & Digital Dollar Sales):

  1. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare
  2. NBA 2K20
  3. Madden NFL 20
  4. Borderlands 3
  5. Mortal Kombat 11
  6. Star Wars Jedi: Fallen Order
  7. Super Smash Bros. Ultimate*
  8. Kingdom Hearts 3
  9. Tom Clancy’s The Division 2
  10. Mario Kart 8*
  11. Grand Theft Auto V
  12. Red Dead Redemption 2
  13. Minecraft#
  14. FIFA 20
  15. Anthem
  16. Pokémon Sword*
  17. Resident Evil 2 Remake
  18. Luigi’s Mansion 3*
  19. Days Gone
  20. New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe*

Finally, we’re going even bigger. Despite what naysayers would have you believe, 2019 is in fact the end of the decade that began back in 2010. Which means it’s time to recap industry sales and the games with the broadest success.

Adding together each year in aggregate, total consumer spending on the games industry in the U.S. for the decade ending 2019 totaled over $150 billion.

Sony’s PlayStation 4 ended as the top-selling gaming console of the decade domestically, one in which it saw competition from its own PlayStation 3 platform, Microsoft’s Xbox 360 and Xbox One launches plus Nintendo’s Wii U and Switch. While we don’t have exact unit sales figures locally, its milestone of 106 million sales worldwide cements it as the second best selling home console ever.

Flipping to the software side, Take-Two Interactive’s Grand Theft Auto V ended as the single best selling game of the decade in the States. The latest in the crime drama franchise from Rockstar Games released in 2013 on the Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3, topping the annual chart during its release year.

After its Xbox One and PlayStation 4 release in 2014, the open world game went on to Top 3 results the next two years and Top 11 finishes in every single year since. Boosted now by its ongoing online mode, it’s truly the biggest console game of the generation. It became one of only a handful of titles to pass 100 million unit sales globally back in 2018 as shared on an earnings call. As it stands currently, Grand Theft Auto V boasts an impressive 115 million copies shipped and I wouldn’t be surprised if that figure increases by millions when we hear another update from Take-Two early next month.

Unsurprisingly, Call of Duty earned the top spot as the best-selling gaming franchise of last decade. Like, to the point where there’s just as many games within the series on the full decade list as those outside of the series as we’ll see in a moment. The appetite of the American casual audience for multiplayer, competitive shooters is persisting. There’s no.. fatigue with military shooters just yet.

Below are the full rankings for the span from 2010 to present day along with each game’s release year for reference. Fair warning that it might be a bit redundant.

Top-Selling Games of the Decade, 2010 – 2019 (Physical & Digital Dollar Sales):

  1. Grand Theft Auto V (2013)
  2. Call of Duty: Black Ops (2010)
  3. Call of Duty: Black Ops 2 (2012)
  4. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 (2011)
  5. Call of Duty: Black Ops 3 (2015)
  6. Call of Duty: Ghosts (2013)
  7. Red Dead Redemption 2 (2018)
  8. Call of Duty: World War 2 (2017)
  9. Call of Duty: Black Ops 4 (2018)
  10. Minecraft (2011)
  11. Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare (2014)
  12. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare (2019)
  13. The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim (2011)
  14. Mario Kart 8 (2014)
  15. Call of Duty: Infinite Warfare (2016)
  16. Battlefield 1 (2016)
  17. Battlefield 4 (2013)
  18. Destiny (2014)
  19. The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (2017)
  20. Star Wars Battlefront (2015)

Whew. Enough stats for ya?

2019 wasn’t necessarily a banner year for blockbuster game releases or massive sales overall, though it had plenty of quality releases that won’t ever top the charts. Expanding to the decade, it’s somewhat repetitive and predictable to see so many military shooters and almost disheartening to see a lack of new properties other than the likes of Minecraft and Destiny.

Moving into 2020 and beyond, my hope is that we see more diversity at the upper end when we regroup in ten years (whoa!) though I’m not overly confident this will be the case as publishers move towards the model of even more sequels, ongoing games and projects within established brands.

Only time will tell!

For now, check out my buddy Mat Piscatella’s post on Twitter which has deets on individual platform results and more. Or the NPD Games page for additional insights. Next month will bring the first rankings of the new decade, and while it will be quiet on the new release front, we should still have a lot of fun! Thanks for visiting.

^Digital PC Sales Not Included, *Digital Sales Not Included, #Digital Sales on Consoles Included

Sources: Activision Blizzard, Nintendo, NPD Group, Sony Corp, Take-Two Interactive.

-Dom

2019 Year-in-Review: Dom’s Top 10 Games of the Year

DomsPlaying1 Comment

It’s the most wonderful time of the year.

Forget the holidays. It’s Game of the Year season!

In what’s become an annual tradition here, the very last post of my year-in-review is a prestigious list of the best games I played in 2019. These defined the year for me, which truly was an especially important one personally and for the site as I started writing more in the way of official reviews and impressions.

No need for too much of an introduction. These excellent games speak for themselves, so let’s get into the festivities!

Dom’s Top 10 Games of the Year

#10: Remnant: From the Ashes (Gunfire Games, Perfect World Entertainment)

Platforms: PlayStation 4, Xbox One, PC.

Sales: Just recently passed one million copies, according to the studio.

Starting my Top 10 is Remnant: From the Ashes, one of the most surprising games of the entire year after seeing it in passing around E3 live-streams. Gunfire Games’ latest project is a blend of over-the-shoulder combat mechanics with Dark Souls-inspired areas and difficult boss fights. The shooting and melee both pack a serious punch, as one’s created character move through environments like forests and deserts that are curated yet also can be “generated” when starting a new game which adds replay potential. What really sets it apart is its enemy design and loot systems, where figuring out patterns is as enjoyable as building a character and finding cool new gear with which to overcome them.

#9: Call of Duty: Modern Warfare (Infinity Ward, Activision Blizzard)

Platforms: PlayStation 4, Xbox One, PC.

Sales: As usual, Call of Duty was one of the year’s best-selling premium titles. $600 million in three days. To date has $1 billion in global sell-through, which implies ~ 16.5 million copies.

In terms of annual, triple-A releases, I believe there’s none more consistent than the military action game Call of Duty. And Infinity Ward’s latest, a re-imagining of its 2007 classic Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare, is the best it’s been this generation. Built on a revamped engine, the result is a gritty campaign as memorable for blockbuster moments as its more claustrophobic, personal missions. The competitive multiplayer is grounded, smooth and addictive. The only thing really holding it back from a higher spot is its middling co-op mode.

#8: Control (Remedy Entertainment, 505 Games)

Platforms: PlayStation 4, Xbox One, PC.

Sales: Remedy Entertainment CEO Tero Virtala stated the three year development budget was under €30 million ($34 million) and that the title is “in a good position with steady sales.”

When I reviewed Control in August, I explained what’s so glowing about Remedy’s creepy, third-person action-adventure. Its seemingly everyday corporate setting is elevated by gorgeous art and best-in-class sound design that sets the uneasy mood as a backdrop for its weird albeit occasionally nonsensical narrative. Its attention to detail in world-building, which I argue is just as important as the story progression and fluid combat mechanics, sets it apart compared to most games in its genre. Protagonist Jesse Faden’s journey ends up being overshadowed by the broader scope of what’s happening with the enigmatic government agency around her, and discovering that is the game’s true joy. It also contains one of my favorite sequences in a game this generation in its “Ashtray Maze.” You have to play it to understand.

#7: Star Wars Jedi: Fallen Order (Respawn Entertainment, Electronic Arts)

Platforms: PlayStation 4, Xbox One, PC.

Sales: EA was selective in its stats. Fastest digital launch and best PC launch for the series. In the U.S., NPD Group reported it was the 2nd best seller of November and immediately #9 on the 2019 list to date.

This generation finally has a.. hm, stellar Star Wars game! Respawn Entertainment’s first foray into third-person action games is a damn good one as Jedi: Fallen Order captures what being a skilled, Force-wielding Jedi must feel like. Main character Cal Kestis and his ragtag crew move through stunning environments mimicking those from the films, including the iconic Wookie planet Kashyyyk which is stunningly represented by Respawn’s art team. Inconsistent performance is the main reason why it’s not ranked higher, because its engaging story and satisfying combat elements result in the most memorable experience in a Star Wars game since probably the original Battlefront II way back in ’05.

#6: Outer Wilds (Mobius Digital Games, Annapurna Interactive)

Platforms: PlayStation 4, Xbox One, PC.

Sales: Not disclosed.

Outer Wilds is the type of game where its best features and phenomenal finale stuck with me long after forgetting how tricky it was to actually play. I described what’s so mesmerizing about Mobius Digital’s space exploration experience when I reviewed it. That sense of wonder when first peering out at an unexplored solar system. Acquiring knowledge on an alien civilization to figure out why everything is stuck in a time loop. And I actually like it more now than before after reflecting on why it’s so special. Each 22-minute interval offers something new: a tidbit of information, an excerpt of text, a curious location. All of these provide a sense of progression via information rather than tangible upgrades like a conventional video game. This makes the player feel as if they are the first and only to figure out its secrets, right up until its exceptional ending.

#5: Resident Evil 2 (Capcom R&D Division 1, Capcom)

Platforms: PlayStation 4, Xbox One, PC.

Sales: Currently over 5 million units shipped, slightly outpacing the original release.

As far as remakes go, Capcom absolutely slayed Resident Evil 2. The same way that dual playable characters Leon and Claire do zombies in this modernized version of the 1998 original. It’s set in an eerily beautiful, updated Raccoon City with an over-the-shoulder perspective, revamped puzzles and refined enemy placements. Resident Evil 2 nails the atmosphere and terror of the original yet feels new enough to be suspenseful and unpredictable. Sound work is especially riveting when popping off shots at zombies or evading the constant threat of main villain Mr. X, as Capcom proves that older games in the franchise are far from dead.

#4: The Outer Worlds (Obsidian Entertainment, Take-Two Interactive/Private Division)

Platforms: PlayStation 4, Xbox One, PC. (Nintendo Switch in 2020).

Sales: Nothing specific other than Private Division executives saying on a recent call it is “outperforming expectations handily.”

The other sci-fi game on my list is Obsidian Entertainment’s latest entry in its storied role-playing lineage. Published by Take Two’s Private Division, the first-person game is set in a universe where corporations are in charge. The Outer Worlds boasts an amalgamation of elements such as dialogue options, skill tree upgrades and combat variations that offer multiple ways to play. And not just in the marketing sense, decisions will impact how stories play out. There’s also companion quests a la Mass Effect, offering intimate moments with crew-members. Obsidian’s newest is truly witty and nails its comedic moments, which successfully balances out the darker underpinnings of its universe. Towards its last act, the player learns what’s really going on with its corporate overlords and luckily can amass the power and influence to alter the future of humanity. Depending on their decisions, of course.

#3: Judgment (Ryu Ga Gotoku Studio, Sega)

Platforms: PlayStation 4.

Sales: Held the record for biggest new IP launch in Japan before Death Stranding per Game Data Library. Producer Daisuke Sato noted that its performance is above expectations in the West.

There’s so much to do in Judgment, and I honestly did not expect to love the PlayStation exclusive as much as I did. My review was outright glowing for the Yakuza spin-off from Sega’s Ryu Ga Gotoku team. It’s so many things, yet feels so cohesive. It’s a story about a disgraced detective named Yagami trying to reclaim his honor amidst a backdrop of the fictional Kamurocho district, which offers an open world playground, plenty of characters to meet and secret quests to uncover.

Its main campaign never suffers the myriad of side stories and mini-games; in fact, it’s actually a gripping tale of relationships between government agencies, law enforcement and street gangs that all operate under the bright lights of a vibrant Japanese city. Combat is near flawless, even if far from the only option. Investigations are intriguing and tailing missions aren’t even that bad. It has serious Sleeping Dogs vibes mixed with Yakuza and crime noirs, though somehow maintains its humor with especially wacky character moments. The only crime of which Judgment is guilty is that it’s not on more platforms for a broader audience to enjoy.

#2: A Plague Tale: Innocence (Asobo Studio, Focus Home Interactive)

Platforms: PlayStation 4, Xbox One, PC.

You know it’s a great year when the most memorable of experiences arise from the most unexpected of places. A Plague Tale: Innocence is the definition of such a game, as I described in my favorite review of 2019. Made by French development team Asobo Studio and set in a 14th century version of the country that’s plagued by diseased rats and power-hungry leaders, it’s truly exquisite interactive storytelling. The most emotional time I had with a game all year. It’s a story about a pair of siblings, Amicia and Hugo, confronting loss, fighting challenges, retaining innocence and regaining hopefulness.

It’s more beautiful than it has any right to be based on the studio’s size, and its predominant feature from a tech standpoint is how many plague-ridden rats it can fit on screen. These rodents act as barriers to progressing within each area, along with soldiers from both armies and even the church. As older sister Amicia, the player must solve environmental puzzles and stealth past enemies to avoid detection while keeping track of sickly younger brother Hugo. There’s a crafting system that allows the player to be sneaky or even powerful in late game. Still, the main pull is the narrative. It’s like a medieval novel come to life, one that I can safely recommend to anyone that’s open to trying it. I guarantee its characters and conclusion will leave a lasting impression.

#1: Sekiro: Shadows Die Twice (FromSoftware, Activision Blizzard)

Platforms: PlayStation 4, Xbox One, PC.

Sales: 2 million copies shipped within ten days according to Activision, lifetime total stands at 3.8 million according to FromSoftware’s parent company Kadokawa via friend of the site Daniel Ahmad.

FromSoftware is in the upper echelon of Japanese game developers in that when they make a game, the industry pays attention. Sekiro: Shadows Die Twice is the latest from famed director Hidetaka Miyazaki and his team, and it’s undoubtedly my favorite game of 2019.

I’m a relative late bloomer when it comes to “Souls-like” games as they are now known, a sub-section of games defined by challenging mechanics, lethal enemies, ominous locales and intricate boss battles. FromSoftware is the preeminent developer in this space ever since creating the Demon’s Souls and Dark Souls series, and Bloodborne in 2015 was its first such game that hooked me. I revere that as my favorite PlayStation 4 exclusive. Ever. And I firmly believe Sekiro is just as good.

At its core, Sekiro is third-person action adventure set around 17th century Japan. The player controls Wolf, a one-armed master shinobi, in his effort to rescue his child lord from the same clan of samurai that dismembered him. In typical FromSoftware fashion, it’s so much more than this basic summary. Wolf is the most capable of protagonists in any game within the sub-genre, leveraging stealth tactics and his prosthetic arm for a variety of traversal and combat uses. There’s a “posture” system akin to a stamina bar, where blocking and countering are essential (not to mention feel great!), plus various weapons and skills to customize that provide advantages depending on the situation or enemy type. The heavy axe, firecrackers, an umbrella that blocks certain attacks are all examples of the flexibility the prosthetic arm enables.

Because of this, I believe it’s the best combat in a FromSoftware game ever and the best action of any game of 2019. The fluidity with which the player can move through areas, sneaking in for a kill or grappling to a perch when enemies swarm, sets it apart from more methodical, grounded systems. When an enemy is vulnerable, Wolf can end its misery with a visceral finishing move. Sure, the game is super difficult. And most people playing it will die more than twice. Yet the feeling of mastering enemy movements, being able to counter them the more you learn, that’s the magic. Few feelings are as good as being able to outmaneuver an enemy you once thought was impossible to beat.

Locations in Sekiro range from somewhat traditional, like the outskirts of a Japanese castle, to the surreal when diving into flashbacks or entering more.. otherworldly realms. The one critique I’ve heard is that enemies are more “pedestrian” than other Souls-likes (i.e. they aren’t all humongous beasts or deformed oddities). I’d say: Keep going. The design is anything but normal the further the player progresses, and there’s plenty of weird to see in the game’s later acts.

I’ll admit, its narrative is much more lucid than other FromSoft entries. Wolf’s motivation is clear: It’s a story of revenge and an attempt at retribution. He wants to track down his lord and eradicate those responsible for his kidnapping. Yet the world-building and lore is what sets it apart from other action-adventures, with mysterious characters residing and random notes with item descriptions strewn about the play space. It’s worthwhile to explore, because not everything is obvious. While I was certainly enraptured by its main narrative, it’s the secrets that I adore. Devouring each morsel I could find to learn about the world and its mysteries.

Then there’s the best part. The boss fights. It’s not risky to say it: This is really my favorite aspect of the genre, and Sekiro’s design team is best in class. Especially because of how it keeps the player off balance. There are now mini-bosses to fight in addition to the more epic battles. Wolf faces against foes of all sizes, from swift fellow shinobi, armored solders, angry beasts, ghostly beings and plenty more. There’s even an encounter that’s more puzzle mechanics than combat, which shows that FromSoftware is evolving to transcend genre conventions.

To illustrate my adoration for Sekiro, I’d like to shout out a particular sequence: The “Guardian Ape.” It starts normal as ever, in a valley where the player faces a massive, aggravated simian. As a colossal beast enemy, it has devastating attacks and even dung flinging abilities. Once its posture is hurt or health is depleted, Wolf uses his sword to decapitate the beast. Victory! Or so the player thinks. While waiting for the usual cues that the boss is gone, the ape resurrects as an immortal being. Holding its severed head in its arms and attacking with a totally different element type, this time more specter than animal. It’s demoralizing, having to fight the same enemy with new tactics especially when one’s health items are now likely depleted.

And this is just one of many times that Sekiro surprised the heck out of me, and most importantly led to the most satisfying of triumphs when I finally master the fight to overcome its most difficult foes. The great part is, there’s always another challenge after that, beckoning me to come forward and test my willpower. Combine this with environments, narrative, world-building, lore, secrets and character encounters, FromSoftware’s Sekiro: Shadows Die Twice is my Game of the Year and I’m jealous of those that still get to play it for the first time.

Honorable Mentions (Alphabetical)

Ape Out (Gabe Cuzzillo)

Platforms: PlayStation 4, Xbox One, Nintendo Switch, PC.

Sales: Unknown.

Apex Legends (Respawn Entertainment, Electronic Arts)

Platforms: PlayStation 4, Xbox One, PC.

Sales: Now over 70 million registered players according to EA.

Creature in the Well (Flight School Studio)

Platforms: Xbox One (Xbox Game Pass), Nintendo Switch, PC.

Sales: Unknown.

Death Stranding (Kojima Productions, Sony Interactive Entertainment/505 Games)

Platforms: PlayStation 4. (PC in 2020).

Sales: Top selling new IP launch in Japan this generation according to Game Data Library. 7th best-selling game of its launch month in the U.S. per NPD Group. Unclear on global sales so far.

Destiny 2: Shadowkeep (Bungie)

Platforms: PlayStation 4, Xbox One, PC, Google Stadia.

Sales: 15 million registered players at last count.

Gears 5 (The Coalition, Xbox Game Studios)

Platforms: Xbox One, PC.

Sales: Over 3 million players at launch as shared by Xbox.

Life is Strange 2 (Dontnod Entertainment, Square Enix)

Platforms: PlayStation 4, Xbox One, PC.

Sales: Hard to know just yet, its final episode released in December.

Luigi’s Mansion 3 (Next Level Games, Nintendo)

Platforms: Nintendo Switch.

Sales: It’s setting launch month records for its franchise domestically, plus doing very well in Japan. We’ll hear formal unit sales during Nintendo’s next quarterly update.

Tom Clancy’s The Division 2 (Massive Entertainment, Ubisoft)

Platforms: PlayStation 4, Xbox One, PC, Google Stadia.

Sales: While Ubisoft said the game hasn’t met expectations, it’s still the 7th best seller of 2019 in the States as reported by NPD Group plus the same rank in terms of global digital revenue for 2019 according to SuperData estimates. We might never know unit sales.

Untitled Goose Game (House House, Panic Inc)

Platforms: PlayStation 4, Xbox One, Nintendo Switch, PC.

Sales: As of writing, it just surpassed 1 million copies sold.

What a year. It feels like the most competitive of the decade, with so many great games that there couldn’t possibly be a consensus pick for the top spots. It’s also the last year of awards that won’t include the new generation of consoles.

I’m so grateful for all the amazing experiences in gaming during 2019, especially those listed above.

Thanks for reading through my Year-in-Review, remember the round-up post is here to see them all in one place. Here’s to 2020. All the best to you and yours!

Sources: Company media sites, Game Data Library, GamesIndustry.Biz, MeriStation, NPD Group.

-Dom

2019 Year-in-Review: Independent Studios of the Year

DomsPlaying

It’s the last day of the year! Though no slowing down just yet. My year-end posts roll on with an extremely special one to me. During 2019, I’ve branched out more into critical reviews. With that I’ve written more about independent games, which are seriously the lifeblood of creativity in the games industry. As the barriers to entry of publishing on major platforms is more a reality than ever, these types of teams can earn the type of exposure they deserve.

I admit that “indie” is such a nebulous term, so let’s not get caught up in nailing down a definition. Rather, I plan to highlight those studios that either are smaller in scope, aren’t owned by major publishers and/or produce games on a lighter budget. These certainly vary in size, though each of them operates on their own and that’s what counts.

Here’s my list of seven awesome indie teams of 2019.

Asobo Studio (France)

I wrote about it in my review, A Plague Tale: Innocence is one of the most powerful games I played this year. And I was admittedly skeptical of it when I saw streams during E3. It’s the breakout game by French team Asobo Studio, previously known for working on adaptations of Pixar games and supporting the likes of ReCore and The Crew 2, it’s a masterpiece of storytelling. Plus, its enemy design and artificial intelligence technology is extra impressive as the player navigates a pair of siblings through middle century, plague-ridden France. A likely candidate to occupy a very high spot on my Game of the Year list, and I’m not the only one.

Bungie (United States)

You know I couldn’t finish these annual awards without mentioning the Destiny franchise. Maker of my favorite online looter shooter Bungie is now technically independent after its split from Activision Blizzard in January. Since then, the team released the Shadowkeep expansion for Destiny 2, offered a free version of the game, moved to a more seasonal event-driven model, instituted cross-save functionality for players to take characters anywhere plus became the flagship launch title on Google Stadia. Granted, the Washington-based studio is larger than most indie teams. Yet as a self-publisher it now faces many of the same challenges. And has succeeded in facing them thus far, to the point where I’m as excited as ever for its future.

Gabe Cuzzillo (United States)

A one-man team is still a team. Gabe Cuzzillo created one of the most unique, striking games of 2019 in the frenetic, stylistic Ape Out. Cuzzillo is a graduate of NYU Game Center and made his second game here in conjunction with fellow student Bennett Foddy and associate professor Matt Boch. Ape Out is top-down beat-em-up where the minimalist jazz soundtrack reacts to the player controlling an ape trying to, well, get the heck out of places. It was a finalist for the Independent Games Festival back in 2016 then published by Devolver Digital in February, one of those unforgettable indie games defined by its brash style and killer soundtrack.

House House (Australia)

Speaking of memorable indie gaming experiences, 2019 might as well be the Year of the Goose. Back in 2017 when House House announced that we’d play as a goose on the loose in its second game, I was captivated immediately. Right after the Australian team released on Switch and PC in September, Untitled Goose Game and its antagonizing protagonist became an instant meme. The game itself is really a puzzle game where the player, as the annoying goose, moves along by playing tricks on residents of the English countryside. One million copies, award nominations galore and plenty of funny GIFs later, House House is undoubtedly one of the year’s finest honking studios.

Kojima Productions (Japan)

Celebrity game designer Hideo Kojima split from Konami in 2015 to found his own studio, and 2019 showcased the fruits of this labor with the release of Death Stranding. Last month I wrote extensively on my thoughts on Kojima Productions’ debut game, featuring a star-studded cast with incredible tech and cutscenes despite wavering in its gameplay elements and cumbersome systems. However, there’s no denying its importance. It’s Sony’s biggest PlayStation 4 exclusive in 2019, receiving numerous industry awards. As divisive as Death Stranding turned out, Kojima’s team of around 80 fits a unique space within the industry in that it’s aligned with a platform holder yet operates autonomously. Creating whatever it wants to make. I respect that, regardless of my personal opinion on the final product.

Mobius Digital Games (United States)

The more I reflect on Outer Wilds, and distance myself from it, the greater I appreciate its significance despite frustrations I describe in my review. The first-person exploration game is truly a special indie title, with its own solar system and stories to discover. It’s open-ended, allowing the player to figure out what’s going on rather than presenting it explicitly. It sparks wonder by suggesting questions on intelligent life, the universe and mortality. Considering how much I like it the more I think about it over time, the tight-knit, California-based team created one of the most remarkable titles of the console generation, let alone the year. They are an absolute lock for this list.

ZA/UM Studio (Estonia/London)

It’s the last entry on my list of the top indie studios of 2019, and honestly a late addition. ZA/UM are the creators behind Disco Elysium, a bold detective RPG with political themes and internal monologues that cleaned house across multiple categories at The Game Awards this month. The studio’s story is incredible, a team of around 30 people that moved from war-torn Estonia to London during development. These efforts paid off. This traditional role-playing game featuring an alcoholic cop trying to solve a murder within a city of varying political ideologies is one of the most prominent examples of what an indie project should be. And sits among the most memorable of 2019. Compelling. Weird. Unafraid. The type of game that not only occupies a genre, but transcends it.

There we have it. Shout out to all the amazing developers that made the list! Your hard work and dedication to your craft is greatly appreciated.

One more post to go for 2019 year-end accolades: My Top 10 Games of the Year. Stay tuned. It should be a fun one!

Sources: Studio websites and press photos, GamesIndustry.Biz, New York University, The Game Awards.

-Dom

2019 Year-in-Review: Top 5 Most Impressive Gaming Companies

DomsPlaying1 Comment

Every year, companies across the games industry compete for audience’s time and hard-earned dollars. Within this piece, I’ll highlight those bigger publishers and developers that I believe consistently provided the best value for gamers.

2019 marked a number of international successes in particular. Major Japanese companies featured prominently in mind-share, from hardware manufacturing to software hits, while the world’s largest gaming company broke through a difficult regulatory environment. At the same time, publishers of varying sizes from other regions produced impressive titles (some of which I’ll cover in my next post on the Independent Studios of the Year.)

Here are my picks for the five most impressive gaming companies throughout the year, in alphabetical order.

Annapurna Interactive (United States)

Annapurna Interactive has become a premier publisher for independent video games, and I’ll play almost anything it puts out these days. This subsidiary of film producer Annapurna Pictures backs a number of exceptional, unique projects. And more importantly, has enough funding behind it to smartly market its games through a combination of grassroots campaigns and word-of-mouth.

After an amazing 2018 with the likes of Florence and Donut County, Annapurna’s output this year solidified its standing as the type of deft publisher that knows how to pick ’em.

Its standout 2019 title is Outer Wilds from Mobius Digital, a new kind of space exploration game that’s one of the highest rated and widely praised projects of the entire year. Within my review, I praised the sense of wonder I felt navigating the cosmos and discovering the story of its alien solar system and the intelligent life that inhabits it. Even if I had a tough time with its controls, reflecting back I absolutely believe it deserves its recognition.

Other Annapurna joints this year include Telling Lies from Sam Barlow, a drama presented via full-motion video, then “interactive album” Sayonara Wild Hearts by Simigo. The latter of which is a one-of-a-kind production, blending pop music with traditional endless runner mechanics for a tight, memorable experience. Most recently, Annapurna published the wacky Wattam from Keita Takahashi (Katamari Damacy) and Funomena. I haven’t played it, though critics note its creativity; how it piques imagination through its visuals and interactions.

Finally, it also brought a classic to PC for the first time: thatgamecompany’s Journey, originally out in 2012 for PlayStation 3. Annapurna shared arguably the best independent game ever made to a wider audience. It’s a must-play. For everyone.

This line-up is representative of the types of projects Annapurna hand selects. Those that are sometimes experimental, often unique, frequently emotional and always worth a look.

Capcom (Japan)

The resurgence of one of Japan’s most storied gaming companies accelerated in 2019, due to both the quality of its output and sheer quantity of support especially for the Nintendo Switch.

Capcom produced two of the year’s most well-regarded new third person games in Resident Evil 2 Remake and Devil May Cry 5 then produced an expansion to its best-selling game of all time in Monster Hunter World: Iceborne.

Starting strong of the gate in January, its re-imagining of 1998 survival horror game Resident Evil 2 is a Game of the Year contender with its enhanced visuals and modernized mechanics. I posed a question in the beginning of 2019, wondering if this version could outsell its predecessors in the long-running series. Within a week on market, Capcom shipped 3 million units. A month later, over four million. Then earlier this month, it passed the original’s lifetime total by eclipsing the 5 million unit mark.

Essentially, it took under a year for the remake to outsell the original. Between its critical and commercial success, Resident Evil 2 illustrates Capcom’s renewed focus on incubating legacy IP.

Both Devil May Cry 5 in March and September’s Monster Hunter World: Iceborne continued this streak of critical and financial accomplishment. The former hit 2 million copies sold within a couple weeks, already two thirds of what Devil May Cry 4 sold lifetime and “reinvigorating” the franchise according to Capcom execs, while the latter vaulted to 2.5 million in sales within a week.

Separate of these new projects, Capcom pumped out a number of legacy games on a variety of platforms. Onimusha: Warlords, Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney Trilogy plus a set of Resident Evil and Devil May Cry ports for Nintendo Switch.

Between creating successful newer releases and rounding out 2019’s portfolio with catalog titles, Capcom is back in the good graces of fans while also appealing to a broader audience especially with its Monster Hunter series. All it needs now is a great new fighting game! Perhaps in 2020.

Nintendo (Japan)

It should come as no surprise that Nintendo is here. In fact, if I was ranking the list, it would likely capture the top spot.

Even if it wasn’t Nintendo’s strongest first party software year in the Switch generation, which I’d argue was its first year in 2017, its consistency of output is best in business right now. Not only that, Nintendo Switch is the place for third parties to release both new projects and older ports, and especially fruitful for independent teams.

The Kyoto-based company also released a new more compact, handheld-only version of its hybrid console in September. Dubbed the Nintendo Switch Lite, its release contributed to Switch hardware sales jumping to 41.67 million consoles this year plus the company experiencing its best week of Switch sales ever during the Thanksgiving holiday.

It’s impossible to comment on all of its 2019 output, so let’s list them to prove the point.

There’s the internal or “second party” partnership stuff. Tetris 99. New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe. Yoshi’s Crafted World. Super Mario Maker 2. Fire Emblem: Three Houses. The Legend of Zelda: Link’s Awakening. Luigi’s Mansion 3. And its most significant 2019 release, Pokémon Sword and Shield.

Then the third party exclusives. Cadence of Hyrule. Marvel Ultimate Alliance 3: The Black Order. Astral Chain. Daemon X Machina. Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games Tokyo 2020.

Plus the multi-platforms or ports of older games. There are a ton of these. I promise. Titles like Dragon Quest Builders 2, Mortal Kombat 11, Cuphead, Ori and the Blind Forest and even The Witcher 3 are all now playable on Switch.

Not to mention mobile. Mario Kart Tour. Dr. Mario World. And the experimental. Labo Toy-Con VR Kit. Ring Fit Adventure.

Even a, gasp, pretty good video game movie in Detective Pikachu!

It’s cliche to say that Nintendo literally makes something for everyone. Shoot, in many cases there’s a LOT for everyone. But it’s true. And it’s playable at home or on the go, sometimes even on a phone. We expect Nintendo’s internal teams and close partnerships to produce amazing content. It’s the third parties and indies that are really starting to bolster the Switch experience.

Sure, there’s room for improvement. Its online service is nowhere near its competitors. It should offer individual legacy titles rather than only as a library. Its mobile app is laughable. Its operating system lacks basic functionality. We still have to use friend codes.

These aside, Nintendo’s at its best when it both offers great exclusive titles from its talented studios that appeal to all kinds of gamers plus experiments with use cases for its technology. Its leadership like President Shuntaro Furukawa, Director and legendary designer Shigeru Miyamoto and more locally Nintendo of America lead Doug Bowser (since the retirement of Reggie Fils-Ame) aren’t afraid to get weird and have fun. This and its sheer consistency on the software development side are the defining characteristics of 2019’s most impressive gaming company.

Respawn Entertainment [Electronic Arts] (United States)

I’m going to cheat a bit here because I want to shout out a particular team within a broader parent firm for its excellent work. Respawn Entertainment, which was purchased by Electronic Arts a couple years back, is responsible for two of the year’s blockbuster titles. One of which came out of nowhere, the other a foray into a new genre for the studio.

First, there was Apex Legends. Most industry commenters claimed that the battle royale fad had passed. That there was no room for real competition to the likes of Fortnite and PlayerUnknown’s Battlegrounds (PUBG), both of which still have large, dedicated audiences. Then Respawn stealthily released Apex Legends as a free digital download on a random Monday in early February and proved everyone wrong.

A first-person game set in the Titanfall universe where teams fight for dominance, Apex Legends player counts skyrocketed within days as it enraptured gamers with smart accessibility options, a balanced hero system and top-notch mechanics. One million within 8 hours. 2.5 million in a day. 10 million in 72 hours! It made $92 million in sales within its first month. And it’s free! That means players weren’t merely downloading it, they liked it so much that they wanted to spend money on its cosmetics.

Since then, it’s boasted over 50 million players. A success story for the industry in showing that new concepts can be rewarded even in a market flooded with participants.

Respawn’s second massive project this year was Star Wars Jedi: Fallen Order. To say Electronic Arts has been inconsistent in publishing Star Wars games is an understatement. That is, until now.

Fallen Order released in mid-November to widespread critical acclaim. It’s a third person action game with satisfying lightsaber combat, an intriguing story and diverse environments seemingly pulled right from the movies. Directed by God of War veteran Stig Asmussen, it’s undoubtedly one of the best Star Wars games to date plus a candidate for year-end accolades despite some unfortunate technical problems. It’s also a surprising move for Respawn to shift to third-person action when it’s solely made first-person shooters in the past.

While we don’t have broad sales numbers for Fallen Order, I wrote recently about how it was the second best-selling title domestically in its release month and nearly achieved the best launch ever for a Star Wars game, trailing only 2015’s Star Wars Battlefront. It’s already entered the Top 10 sellers of the year, and I anticipate that rank to improve when we hear December’s data.

By developing a surprise hit in a competitive genre alongside a critical darling in one of the world’s most beloved franchises, Respawn clearly earned its spot as one of the most compelling and accomplished studios of 2019.

Tencent (China)

It’s ironic how quietly Chinese media conglomerate Tencent dominates the global games industry. Because its operations are mostly in the mobile and PC market, especially popular titles within the Asia Pacific region, Tencent is the biggest gaming company in the world by revenue (near a whopping $20 billion during 2018) with less mind-share than most of its competitors.

Think of a big game or publisher, it’s likely that Tencent is involved with it. League of Legends? It owns Riot Games. Clash of Clans? Holds 84% of Supercell. Fortnite? A 40% stake in Epic Games. PUBG? Nearly 12% of Bluehole at last count. Activision? Ubisoft? Small holdings in both.

Even stakes in smaller teams like Path of Exile creator Grinding Gear Games and Frontier Developments, maker of Jurassic World: Evolution and Elite Dangerous, round out Tencent’s plethora of investments.

This isn’t even to mention its own games like mobile racing game QQ Speed or crazy popular multiplayer game on phones Honor of Kings, released in the West as Arena of Valor. If we’re talking the smartphone market, there’s none more impressive than Tencent.

Beyond that, I’m placing it on my 2019 list is for multiple reasons other than its significant holdings: More because of its navigation of China’s difficult regulatory environment, the smash release of Call of Duty: Mobile and its recent partnership with Nintendo.

It’s always a tricky regulatory situation in China, so a quick recap of the most recent events. Back in April 2018, the country instituted a freeze on new releases in the world’s largest gaming market due to addiction concerns,. This obviously impacted Tencent’s performance and market capitalization, losing a unfathomable $250 billion in valuation at one point. After ten long months, the government began approving new titles.

While Tencent earned approvals for smaller new titles, it didn’t for one of its biggest money-makers in PUBG Mobile which has been downloaded over 600 million times. The company shut down the game in May, though simultaneously released a new one in the same genre called Game for Peace (or Peacekeeper Elite in English).

During its first month, Game for Peace generated $70 million in sales. When combined with the $76 million from its PUBG Mobile counterpart, these quickly became the world’s top smartphone games by revenue. Since then, total global sales have passed $1.5 billion from these games, according to Sensor Tower. This is fully representative of Tencent’s savvy in bouncing back from the government freeze.

Similarly, Tencent’s global expansion is underway now with the release of Call of Duty: Mobile back in October. Based on the uber popular first-person military franchise owned by Activision Blizzard, this version was actually developed by Tencent’s internal team Timi Studio. It achieved a record during its first week on market with 100 million downloads and has since passed 170 million while raking in $87 million in sales. Aligning with a Western publisher is the type of decision that allows Tencent to benefit from an audience it otherwise couldn’t reach.

The final move is its recent partnership with Nintendo to sell the Switch in China, a market that’s notoriously difficult for console gaming. Just a few weeks ago, the Switch launched there albeit without much of a library. Only New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe is available, with titles like Mario Kart 8 Deluxe and Super Mario Odyssey in the more immediate pipeline and others slated for next year. Niko Partners estimates 100,000 in Switch console sales during this month alone, then a growing install base to where Switch could be the local market leader by 2022.

After a tumultuous 2018 under local regulations putting a halt to new titles, Tencent emerged in 2019 to continue its dominance in the smartphone game space especially in the East. Combine this with its global expansion alongside a smart alliance with Nintendo, and it’s the last on this prestigious list of gaming companies.

Working Casual’s Year-in-Review is far from over! Next up will be Independent Studios of the Year. Until then, thanks for reading.

Sources: Business Insider, Business Wire, Company investor and media sites, Newzoo, Niko Partners, PC Gamer, Sensor Tower, The Verge.

-Dom