Nope, I’m not referring to Diablo’s new Season of the Malignant. Or whatever season Fortnite happens to be promoting this time of year. And, while I’m enjoying Season 3 of Netflix’s The Witcher, that’s not it either.
I’m here for earnings season, of course!
Here I have the latest quarterly installment at the site, where I’m tracking earnings dates for over 100 public companies. It’s what I like to call one of the most comprehensive calendars covering gaming, media and technology sectors across the ‘net.
In the massive image above and the handy Google Sheets document below, feast your eyes on not just the date and fiscal quarter, there’s also investors relations links for easy access. Highly recommended for the dog days of earnings season.
Since gaming is indeed the most global of industries, note that all dates are listed in local time zones based on what the individual company announced.
Check below for a preview of three companies worth your special attention over the coming weeks, and hit that bookmark button before you go! Be safe, business nerds. (For the record, I’m one too.)
This might be cheating because at least I was anticipating Capcom’s first quarter fiscal 2023 results ahead of today today, to see how flagship franchise launches have fared. It’s been an exceptional run for the premier Japanese publisher, which refocused a few years back towards remaking and bolstering beloved IP, and this past quarter was no different. Revenue jumped 74%, while operating profit nearly doubled. It sold 15% more game copies than this time last year. Street Fighter 6 was a main contributor, at 2 million units sold since June’s launch, as was March’s Resident Evil 4 Remake which hit the 5 million milestone during the quarter. Surprise seller MegaMan Battle Network Legacy Collection is now at 1.32 million. While I’m not very upbeat on the likes of this month’s Exoprimal, I expect Capcom’s robust catalog to drive financial growth plus I have my eye on the launch of mobile title Monster Hunter Now in September.
Nintendo (NTDOY): Thursday, August 3rd
After another fantastic year, “earnings calendar post regular” Nintendo will be announcing its first quarter of fiscal year ending March 2024 next week. It’s always one of the most informative, especially lately given how much supplemental information the company posts. And I’m expecting a monster three months ending June. First, there’s The Super Mario Bros Movie, one of the highest grossing animated films of all time and the year’s big earner at the box office. That alone would catapult these results. Then, there’s the all-time fastest-selling Nintendo game The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom, which sold a whopping 10 million in three days. It could be upwards of 20 million by now for all we know, and we’ll know soon. Also, having Nintendo on this list is an excuse to use a cover art image of Everybody 1-2 Switch, which launched in June to minimal fanfare, because its absurdity makes me both laugh and cringe every time. Even so, the one-two punch of Mario and Zelda will make this Q1 rival 2020’s height of Animal Crossing fever.
Nexon (3659): Wednesday, August 9th
Admittedly, I don’t track Nexon as closely as I do other companies across the gaming sphere. Founded in South Korea and operating out of Japan, it produces a variety of online multiplayer titles primarily popular in Asia. Lately, it’s aggressively investing across the globe, buying portions of Hasbro and Bandai Namco while signing deals with Microsoft and others. Future projects include ARC Raiders, The First Descendant and The Finals, although executives have been cagey on release timings. The reason I mention it here is, when the firm shares its second quarter 2023 report, I’m hoping we hear yet another milestone for Dave the Diver. The excellent underwater diving and sushi-serving RPG is from Nexon’s indie label Mintrocket, serving up a million copies within ten days of launch. It’s 2023’s industry darling, similar to Inscryption, Disco Elysium and Return to the Obra Dinn from years past. It’s been on Steam’s best-selling charts since debut in late June, and it should find success on Nintendo Switch later this year.
Gamers should be happy, for once, because the PlayStation 5 has finally arrived!
At least that’s according to Sony’s 2022 annual financial results, which proved that any lingering supply issues for the newest console generation are now over.
The Japanese consumer tech giant reported earnings in Japan last week for the fiscal year ending March 2023. Within, its PlayStation division had an exceptional time as hardware inventories returned and people everywhere could buy PlayStations once again. Its Game & Network Services (G&NS) segment produced almost $27 billion in annual sales, an all-time best.
What’s the catch?
Well, a historically weak yen had an outsized impact and was responsible for a substantial portion of revenue growth. Gaming also proved less profitable because of higher development and acquisition expenses. I’ll cover that more later.
Still, that’s not to dampen what Sony is doing with its gaming hardware business emerging out of the height of pandemic times. During January to March, the PlayStation 5 had the best non-holiday quarter for a gaming console ever with 6.3 million units sold. For perspective, it had shipped 3.3 million and 3.9 million in the same quarter during 2020 and 2021, respectively.
This means Sony beat its ambitious fiscal year target of 19 million shipped, reaching 19.1 million. It also drove lifetime shipments to 38.4 million, moving past the 30.75 million for Sega Genesis and Nintendo 64’s 32.93 million.
On the content side for PlayStation, while yearly software unit sales declined, its services and engagement statistics showed progress as PlayStation Plus and Monthly Active Users (MAUs) either remained flat or gained ground.
“Distribution inventories have normalized, and we are now able to deliver PS5 to customers without waiting almost all over the world,” executives said in prepared remarks. “In addition, the positive impact of increased PS5 sell-in has begun to appear in engagement metrics, with dollar-based third-party software sales exceeding the same month of the previous fiscal year in February and March.”
Here’s a closer look at the numbers for 2022, plus a preview of the year ahead with my new predictions.
Starting with Sony overall, its Q4 revenue jumped 35% to $22.6 billion. During fiscal 2022, sales rose 16% to over $85 billion, slightly above its target. This benefited from contributions across a number of business lines, including G&NS in addition to Entertainment, Technology & Services (ET&S) and its Music segment.
On the other hand, quarterly operating profit suffered a 51% decline to $950 million. It was virtually flat for the year, at $8.92 billion, above estimate. Headwinds included currency impact alongside lower contributions from PlayStation and Sony Pictures.
Gaming is a major factor for Sony’s overall performance. Both Q4 and 2022 overall proved to be mixed, with excellent top-line growth yet a weaker profitability outcome. PlayStation revenue between January and March launched 61% higher, to an all-time Q4 record of $7.9 billion. That was over a third of Sony’s sales for the quarter. During 2022, PlayStation sales grew 33% to a record $26.9 billion.
Again, on the flip side was profitability. Fourth quarter operating profit dipped 55% to $287 million. This drove the annual figure down 28% to $1.85 billion.
There’s great top-line movement yet worsening profit tells a totally different tale. Part of the reason behind record sales was massive exchange rate impact. Over the course of 2022, currency effect was upwards of $3.1 billion. That’s 12% of the total! If backing out this portion, for illustration purposes, Sony’s annual revenue would have been virtually flat.
Profitability took a hit mainly due to higher costs associated with making blockbuster first-party games like God of War Ragnarok, which had a reported budget of at least $200 million, plus purchasing Destiny creator Bungie among other smaller studios. Sony is also investing in its services suite and cloud offerings, and rebranded its PlayStation Plus membership structure. And frankly, it costs money to supply more hardware.
A primary growth driver was, naturally, PlayStation 5 hardware shipments. As regional data came in from key markets, indicators pointed to a big quarter. I still didn’t know if it could be this massive. Sony just shipped the most PlayStations in any fiscal Q4. To put this 6.3 million in context, the biggest January to March shipment total was 3.1 million right after its launch in fiscal 2013. Last year, Sony moved a paltry 2 million.
Even more, I bet most if not all stock is selling-thru to customers. The supply and demand equation has equalized, and Sony is clearly making up for lost time.
While this is impressive stuff, the PlayStation 5 continues to lagging its predecessor, which was at 40 million shipped by the end of its third fiscal cycle. That’s currently the fastest-selling console in Sony’s history. We’ll see if PlayStation 5 catches up. (Tease: It should by next year).
This performance was reflected in its product mix, where Hardware made up 35% of the quarter’s sales after more than doubling year-over-year. Next up was 21% via Add-On Content as it benefited from spend on third-party software and downloadable expansions. Digital games comprised 16%, no doubt bolstered by a monumental launch for Warner Bros’ Hogwarts Legacy. And the Others category contributed 13%, moving up 176% since last year. This includes Sony’s games on PC, such as The Last of Us Part 1 which launched in March.
As I did during my Microsoft earnings reaction, here’s a quick rundown of where Sony’s latest annual output fits compared to peers. Tencent’s latest was nearly $26 billion, meaning that if we account for extreme exchange rate fluctuations, Sony’s $26.9 billion would be tops. Backing out that effect, Sony occupies the second spot again at $23.82 billion. This is where Microsoft’s Xbox sales sit at $15.43 billion. Activision Blizzard’s 12-month revenue was $8.14 billion, so the combined firm could be $22 billion to $23 billion, accounting for redundancies and sales overlaps. Nintendo previously produced $12.25 billion, yet the company is reporting more recent results next week.
Sony’s management also shared supplemental statistics, which give insight into the number of folks playing regularly on PlayStation, if those users actively sticking around plus how well are services being received.
To keep it simple, I’ll focus on annual figures. Intriguingly, full game software sales across the PlayStation family took a substantial hit during 2022, moving down 13% to 264.2 million. Out of that, 43.5 million were from first-party titles published by Sony itself. That number is down only marginally from last year’s 43.9 million. In fact, Sony claims that dollar sales of first-party software rose 41%, including the impact from Bungie. The bulk of the unit drop was external games.
Digital represented 67% last year, up slightly from the 66% of fiscal 2021. That means more than two-thirds of games purchased for a PlayStation platform are via download. Digital’s slice didn’t dip below 62% during any quarter over the past two years.
It appears that, for now, the refurbished PlayStation Plus service is attracting and retaining users. There were 47.4 million memberships at the end of March, the same exact figure as the prior year and up 1 million sequentially since the holiday season.
Reflecting a similar engagement theme was active users on PlayStation. MAUs, defined as the “estimated total number of unique accounts that played games or used services on the PlayStation Network during the last month of the quarter” rose from 106 million in March 2022 to 108 million now.
Thus, while software sales declined for Sony this fiscal year, just as many people are subscribing to its catalog of older titles on PlayStation Plus and even more people are active on the ecosystem, which contributed to its elevated financial results.
“The number of monthly active users for PlayStation as a whole increased 2.3 million accounts compared to the same month of the previous fiscal year in March,” management said on its conference call.
There’s two sides to Sony’s story last year, and I’ve fully delved into both. To summarize, it was one of the best years gaming has ever seen. Albeit with the caveat of revenue benefiting greatly from a weak local currency and profit facing hits from big costs. There’s macro elements like supply lines being shored up that greatly benefit, and even though people are buying less games, perhaps partially due to inflation pressure, they are playing the games they bought.
One disappointing element of Sony’s announcement was nothing much on PlayStation VR2, which launched in February. For such a major product launch to receive zero airtime is concerning, and reinforces my viewpoint that its launch isn’t moving the needle for PlayStation or virtual reality as a niche.
Looking ahead, Sony has set a rather ambitious target for its gaming division in fiscal 2023. Namely, it expects the best year ever for PlayStation hardware, even with a single system-selling title on the docket for the upcoming 12 months.
“We are planning to release a major title, Marvel’s Spider-Man 2, this fiscal year, and we aim to continue creating new IP, rolling out catalog titles for PC and strengthening live game service development.”
Starting with hardware guidance, executives anticipate shipping a staggering 25 million PlayStation 5’s between April 2023 and March 2024. That would be the single best year of PlayStation console sales in its three decade history. If this happens, lifetime PlayStation 5 sales would reach 63.4 million, thus blowing past PlayStation 4’s 60 million on a launch-aligned basis.
I believe Sony will in fact meet this mark. I’m forecasting 25 to 25.5 million in annual PlayStation 5 shipments. I don’t expect any sort of new enhanced version, despite what “insiders” claim. Sony doesn’t need one right now. Supply has caught up to demand and it will milk the current devices until there are more games available solely on this generation.
Effectively, I’m targeting calendar 2025 for a PlayStation 5 model refresh.
Unlike Sony’s overall guidance expecting lower results in fiscal 2023, the firm is upbeat on the gaming segment. It anticipates 7% higher revenue and 8% better operating profit for PlayStation, to $28.8 billion and $1.99 billion respectively. The former would be another all-time best.
Will it hit these? I’m hesitant, not because of games or hardware, mainly because of exchange rate uncertainty plus cost upside. I’m expecting a more modest rise in the low single-digits, and operating profit to be flat or down slightly.
I’m expecting a great upcoming 12 months for software on PlayStation. Marvel’s Spider-Man 2 is undoubtedly a system seller. Square Enix’s Final Fantasy XVI and Capcom’s Street Fighter 6 will attract audiences. Activision Blizzard will launch Diablo IV to critical and commercial acclaim, and will have some sort of premium Call of Duty to sell. MLB The Show is a quiet success every year. Even Ubisoft will, allegedly, launch some games.
There’s also the transmedia portion and PC sales, incorporating brands like The Last of Us and Twisted Metal, which can provide upside if costs are kept in check. The great unknown is Sony’s live services push because it’s still in the ramp-up phase, where it generates expenses long before revenues and I remain a skeptic on just how many players will obsess over ongoing games exclusive to a single platform. At least Naughty Dog should share more on The Last of Us multiplayer this year.
I’ve come to the end of another fun rundown, within what’s already been a busy season. Next up will be Nintendo next week. Thanks for hanging out. Until then, take care, and be well everyone!
Note: Comparisons are year-over-year unless otherwise noted. Exchange rate is based on reported average conversion: US $1 to ¥135.4.
Sources: Ariana Ruiz/Picture Alliance (Image Credit), Circana, Company Investor Relations Websites, The Guardian.
As earnings season officially kicks off, displayed by my quarterly calendar, it’s a big week for Microsoft.
Like many things in life, there’s good and bad.
Yesterday, the Washington-based mega-corp reported its fiscal 2023 third quarter results. This proved to be quite the time for its Xbox division, achieving its second best Q3 ever behind only last year’s all-time highs.
Overall, Xbox revenue declined 4% in the latest three-month period. The Xbox Content & Services sub-segment, which include software and subscriptions, provided a welcome boost as output from hardware sales slumped in the double-digit range.
“We are rapidly executing on our ambition to be the first choice for people to play great games whenever, however, and wherever they want,” said CEO Satya Nadella on the firm’s conference call. “We set third quarter records for monthly active users and monthly active devices.”
Now, less than a day later, we have a huge update around its pending acquisition of Activision Blizzard. The United Kingdom’s Competition & Market Authority (CMA) pushed back against the proposed deal in its final report, citing competition concerns mainly in the cloud gaming space. Thus, the CMA did not approve the acquisition and has blocked it from taking place locally.
At least for now.
“We took the view that the merger would be harmful to competition,” the regulator wrote in its document available here. “And that the best way to address this would be to allow existing drivers of competition to continue to deliver for the benefit of UK consumers.”
This is a major blow to Microsoft’s shot at broadly closing the deal anytime soon, if at all, especially since it has yet to receive approval in the United States or European Union. And it’s a surprising development to me, considering the CMA recently expressed that it didn’t see concerns on the console side which is exponentially larger than the cloud market.
At the start of this year, I predicted that regulatory delays might push the deal to calendar Q4. Now, I’m on the fence as to whether it will even happen!
Understandably, Microsoft executives aid they will be appealing this decision.
Here’s a rundown of the underlying financials from Microsoft’s latest announcement showing a very good quarter for gaming. Then, read on for commentary around where I think the Activision Blizzard deal goes from here.
First let’s talk general gaming numbers. During January to March, Xbox generated $3.61 billion in revenue. That’s down 4% since the same time last year, which was a record $3.74 billion. This is only the second time Q3 Xbox revenue has surpassed $3.6 billion.
Expanding to consider the most recent 12 months, Microsoft’s gaming segment has produced $15.43 billion in sales. You’ll see this comparison over time in the graph above. Compare that to the $16.49 billion generated a year ago, and the current yearly figure is down 6%.
Even so, annualized Xbox sales have been above $15 billion for eight straight quarters.
This illustrates a few important factors impacting the top-line of Microsoft’s Xbox business. Mainly how its subscription business is proving resilient even when there aren’t many major exclusives and hardware isn’t growing.
It reflects a shift of spending for consumers coming out of the heights of coronavirus lock-downs, moving towards different purchasing decisions when it comes to entertainment. There’s also the inflation element, which continues to rear its ugly head at a macro level. Still, it’s lagging where it should be at this point in a new console cycle. If it wasn’t for Xbox Game Pass, the business would look a whole lot different.
While it’s still early in the earnings season, I like to run an annual sales comparison across industry peers whenever we get new results from the biggest players. Tencent is currently the world’s largest gaming company by sales, eclipsing upwards of $25.6 billion in fiscal 2022. Sony’s impressive $22.84 billion from PlayStation is up next, bolstered by an exceptional holiday quarter. This is where Microsoft slots in with $15.43 billion. Note Activision Blizzard reported its fiscal 2023 Q1 results today, wherein its 12-month revenue is $8.14 billion, thus the combined entity could be roughly $22 billion to $23 billion, accounting for redundancies and sales overlaps. Lastly, Nintendo saw $12.25 billion in annual sales.
As I say every time when Microsoft reports, we have limited visibility into profitability for the Xbox brand. The gaming segment is part of the More Personal Computing (MPC) business unit, which experienced a 12% decline in operating profit during Q3. This was mainly driven by 9% lower revenue, since operating expenses declined 5%. It’s impossible to know how gaming contributes, so all we have are metrics from the broader business.
I’ll now break out the performance of each underlying segment within gaming, to illustrate how each contributed to the whole.
Sales from Xbox Content & Services rose 3% in Q3, well above the company’s forecast. This equates to $3.1 billion in sales, or 86% of Xbox’s total, which is a record third quarter dollar amount passing last year’s $3 billion. On an annualized basis, sales from Xbox Content & Services reached $12.06 billion or 78% of the total. The company attributed this upward movement to Xbox Game Pass growth.
As part of this, subscription revenue reached almost $1 billion in Q3 according to Nadella. Thus, 28% of Xbox revenue right now is via Xbox Game Pass and related subscription revenue across its various devices.
Speaking of the service, management still hasn’t shared any new subscriber numbers. The last update was 25 million back in 2021. It seems like every quarter, executives say that Xbox Game Pass is growing and yet we don’t know by how much. I’m still banking that it publicly hits the 30 million mark this fiscal year.
As for other metrics of engagement, I mentioned the quote from Nadella earlier in the piece that said Xbox set Q3 records for monthly active users (MAUs) and “monthly active devices,” whatever that means, without placing actual numbers on either. For reference, last quarter Xbox attracted 120 million MAUs, so it’s probably below this number (I’d imagine he would have said otherwise).
The last random statistic provided by executives was its first party passed 500 million unique users to date. Since the inception of the Xbox brand in 2001, I assume? That’s certainly a lot, albeit inclusive of Bethesda titles which only recently came under the company’s umbrella.
Moving over to Xbox Hardware, revenue declined an astonishing 30% in the quarter ending March to around $507 million. That’s the lowest dollar amount since 1st quarter of fiscal 2021. Annual sales from Xbox’s console business are currently $3.37 billion. Compare that to $3.79 billion around Q3 last year.
This reflects what regional data was saying in recent months, as Microsoft’s peers notched wins in key markets. Management said this was due to “a prior year comparable that benefited from increased console supply.” In that case, why the heck is Sony signalling its best year for PlayStation 5 and crushing it when it comes to inventories? There’s a disconnect between the two current gen manufacturers, and I can’t tell if it’s because of Microsoft’s ideological shift away from consoles and towards services, or if its suppliers aren’t doing as well as peers?
This is one reason why it’s so hard to talk about lifetime hardware shipment comparisons this generation. I had Xbox Series X|S around 21.5 million to 22 million last quarter. Maybe it has passed 23 million by now, which I believe would be lagging even the lackluster Xbox One generation. For comparison, PlayStation 5 is at 32 million and will be even higher when Sony reports its results later this week.
Closing out the Q3 talk, Microsoft’s overall revenue rose 7% to $52.9 billion. Operating income moved up 10% to $22.4 billion. Microsoft Cloud revenue alone jumped 22% to $28.5 billion. The firm beat analyst expectations for both sales and profit.
Really, this past quarter perfectly encapsulates Microsoft’s evolved gaming strategy. Ecosystem and subscription contributing to ongoing revenue, which offsets times when console sales are lackluster or it doesn’t have a big exclusive software launch. I’ve said for years that Microsoft’s biggest exclusive is Xbox Game Pass, not any of its first party brands like Halo or Forza.
The results for Xbox’s subscription offering speak for themselves, at least at the top-line. Whether it’s sustainable over time is another question that’s hard to answer without more transparency. If my prediction of a price hike in the next year or so comes true, that’s another piece of the profitability puzzle.
Looking ahead towards the final quarter of Microsoft’s 2023 fiscal year, the firm expects gaming revenue to grow in the “mid to high single digits.” If I assume 7%, that would be $3.7 billion. Just below the all-time high of Q4 2021’s $3.71 billion.
For Xbox Content & Services, management forecasts an increase in the “low to mid teens.” Assuming it could be around 12% growth, that’s a Q4 result of $3.1 billion which would be the best Q4 for this software sub-segment to date. And while Microsoft doesn’t provide guidance for its Xbox Hardware business, I’m looking at around a 13% decline if the other numbers hold.
This fits with my expectation that 3rd party software will carry the quarter, with the likes of Star Wars Jedi: Survivor, Diablo IV (ironically from Blizzard) and Street Fighter 6 hitting market. Internal studio titles like Minecraft Legends and Redfall will contribute, though I wouldn’t dare call them blockbusters. Either way, I’m expecting Microsoft to meet these forecasts, leaning more towards a slight beat.
That brings me to my reaction to the CMA’s decision to block Microsoft’s intended purchase of Activision Blizzard in its native United Kingdom. While I’m still digesting it, and I’m far from a legal expert, the overall point remains that cloud gaming seemed to be the tipping point for the regulator, and the main reason why it thinks the deal could stymie competition.
I can almost see the CMA’s argument, as Microsoft purchasing all these properties will certainly beef up its already leading market share in cloud. Even as the company threw around 10-year licensing agreements like Oprah does cars. It’s still a ridiculous reason to block the purchase, considering it will continue to be a niche portion of the industry now and in the medium term. To me, King is the real prize of the deal with its exposure to behemoth mobile titles like Candy Crush. There seems to be an outsized focus on cloud services, which will remain a small complement to traditional and mobile gaming for many years to come.
It’s a cop out, I know, yet I’m officially undecided as to when, or even if, the deal will close. Originally I expected it by year-end. With Microsoft appealing the CMA’s decision, plus without approval yet from the United States and European Union, my prediction is this legal ordeal might drag well into 2024.
Apologies to everyone who thought the story would be over sooner than later!
What is over is my first big recap of video game earnings. Check back in the coming days for more games industry coverage, and bounce back to the calendar for a rundown of the schedule for gaming, media and tech companies. Thanks for visiting! Be well, everyone.
Note: Comparisons are year-over-year unless otherwise noted.
Sources: Company Investor Relations Websites, The Competition & Markets Authority (CMA).
Nope, I’m not talking about your favorite show or streaming service offering. (Though how about that epic third episode in the final season of HBO’s Succession, huh?) It’s earnings time!
In what’s become a quarterly tradition dating back as long as the site has existed, here’s a massive calendar of earnings dates for key public companies across the games industry, media sector and technology space.
I like to say this list of 100-plus companies is the biggest and best place to keep organized during a busy time for business. Over the coming weeks, I hope it’s helpful as various companies report numbers behind their recent performance. I use it myself to stay up-to-date.
Check the above image for a rundown of the full list. There’s also a handy Google Sheets link below, meant to be an easy way to visit investor sites.
As an added bonus, read on for a preview of three major earnings results incoming this quarter. As always, I’ll be writing articles about some of these soon.
This is an easy one, as Sony’s PlayStation division is one of the hottest stories in all of gaming. Especially as hardware supply lines come back online in a big way. The Japanese consumer conglomerate reports 2022 results later this week, which could be excellent after a record holiday for gaming. Within this annual release, I’ll be closely monitoring hardware and engagement. Will it achieve the lofty 19 million annual PlayStation 5 unit sales figure? This is a big expectation, considering it totaled 12.8 million through the first 3 quarters. I’ve been a vocal skeptic. However, the more I’ve seen recent regional data, I’m thinking it might actually hit the estimate. Upwards of 6.2 million consoles in a three month span would be one of the best non-holiday quarters for a PlayStation. In addition to the usual PlayStation Plus and monthly active user figures, I’d like to hear anything on PlayStation VR2. If Sony is silent there on its latest virtual reality launch, that would be deafening. Overall, I’m way upbeat on PlayStation’s 2022.
Nintendo (NTDOY): Tuesday, May 9th
While we won’t quite hear about the commercial success of The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom when Nintendo reports its latest yearly result in May, we will hear plenty about the Switch and The Super Mario Bros. Movie breaking all sorts of records. Even if the film won’t contribute to what I expect will be a solid fiscal 2023 result. By then, the Mario Bros will have etched their name into the annals of box office history by generating over $1 billion in ticket sales. (At present, it’s approaching $900 million.) On the gaming side, I want to see if Nintendo achieved its lowered 18 million annual Switch hardware unit target and where it guides for the current fiscal year, which is the hybrid console’s seventh on market. Plus, the evergreen Mario Kart 8 Deluxe will probably sell another few million units, as it often does.
Capcom (9697): Wednesday, May 10th
When Capcom REports its REsults for fiscal 2022 next month, I expect it to be REally good. Maybe even REmarkable. Why am I typing like that? Because its bread-and-butter approach of remaking mainline Resident Evil games continued through this latest year with a modern version of Resident Evil 4 launching in late March. It was the 2nd fastest-selling title in franchise history, moving 3 million units in 2 days then another million in the week or so after. Last quarter, the Japanese third party publisher said it’s on target to achieve its full-year guidance driven by digital performance, Monster Hunter Rise: Sunbreak and the aforementioned Resident Evil boost. Beyond that, I’m looking forward to forward-looking targets considering it has a busy year incoming. Street Fighter 6 hits in June and what I think can be a surprise IP in Exoprimal launches in July. The firm also has the Monster Hunter Now mobile game in September, then a live-action Street Fighter movie is in the works as well.
Nintendo posted its third quarter fiscal 2023 announcement in Japan today. The company’s still exhibiting strength when compared to most recent years, though exercising caution going forward into the same tricky macroeconomic environment that many consumer tech firms are facing.
While hardware shipments are slowing as Switch moves towards its sixth birthday next month, the hybrid reached a new milestone this quarter and passed the sales of two legendary devices in the process.
The company shipped 8.25 million Switch units in the three months ending December, now achieving 122.55 million across its lifetime. That moves it above Sony’s PlayStation 4 and Nintendo’s own Game Boy/Game Boy Color which reached 117.2 million and 118.69 million, respectively.
It’s now behind only PlayStation 2 and Nintendo’s DS handheld line on the all-time list, making it the 3rd best-selling gaming hardware to date. It’s technically 2nd on both home console and portable lists if breaking them out individually. I don’t remember anyone saying this would happen when it launched back in 2017. I was among the most upbeat on its prospects. This is the type of monumental run that’s near impossible to predict.
Also contributing to Nintendo’s solid quarter was the historic launch of Pokémon Scarlet & Violet. After shipping an unreal 10 million units during its first three days on market, it’s now crossed another milestone at 20.61 million shipped between its November start and year-end.
Not only is this the fastest-selling Pokémon release ever, it has better initial sales than any game ever released on a dedicated Nintendo device. This monstrous start makes it already seventh place on the Switch best-sellers list, outpacing huge catalog titles like Super Mario Party and Ring Fit Adventure.
“For the months of October through December 2022 which encompass the holiday season, the effects of shortages of semiconductors and other components was largely resolved, and shipments generally went according to plan,” management said in prepared remarks. “However, unit sales were down compared to the same period last year, when Nintendo Switch – OLED Model was released.”
“Shipment volumes for software generally went according to plan. The release of new titles including Pokémon Scarlet and Pokémon Violet contributed to unit sales, but overall software unit sales declined year-on-year, affected to an extent by the decline in hardware sales.”
Even with generally softer hardware output, Nintendo’s top-line is proving resilient when scanning the past decade. Especially considering the sort of inflationary pressures facing consumers and a lineup lacking major titles outside of Pokémon. I’ll now move into the underlying numbers, then a look ahead to guidance and predictions for the months ahead.
I pulled the above gallery of slides from Nintendo’s Q3 report, where it showcases 9-month performance in the period ending December. I’ll back into the quarterly figures, then illustrate trends over a longer period of time as well.
Revenue for the three months ending December 2022 came in at $4.68 billion, down 8% since last holiday. Operating profit experienced a more precipitous dip, moving down 25% to $1.39 billion. Two of my charts in the next section map out movement over time.
Taking this into account, sales for the fiscal year to date have declined a modest 2% to $9.5 billion. Income from operations is trending down 13%, to $3 billion.
Executives said sales dipped slightly despite the yen’s depreciation, primarily because of semiconductor shortages in the earlier quarters and component parts impacting hardware supply. Still, that top-line figure is more resilient than expected, achieving the second best Q3 sales since back in fiscal 2010. Even quarterly operating profit is the third best since that same year, despite the recent double-digit decline. Demand for a spanking new Pokémon generation certainly helped.
I’ll now dig into the current product category mix that impacted last quarter. Leading the charge was Hardware, at nearly 51% of the split. Compare that to 54% this time last year, when Nintendo was shipping more units to retailers. This means software moved from 46% during last year’s December quarter to 49% now, bolstered by the proportion from first-party being 85% of the total. From a geographic standpoint, Americas is 43%, the same as last year. Nearly 25% of Nintendo’s sales came from Europe, down from 27%. Japan made up most of the difference, contributing 24% versus last year’s 21%.
Expanding to see how the latest quarter affects annual sales, check out the second set of charts in the next gallery. Nintendo’s annual sales are currently trending towards $12.25 billion, effectively flat year-on-year. It’s been hovering around a similar value since mid-fiscal 2021. Which proves that, even with a down quarter, annual revenue has been consistent. On the other hand, annualized operating profit dipped to its lowest level in ten quarters, at $3.9 billion. Higher expenses and the yen’s movement are its biggest headwinds.
Similar to recent articles, I’ll list a quick comparison to industry peers. Tencent is the world’s biggest gaming company by sales, currently at $25.8 billion. PlayStation’s record holiday led to $22.84 billion in annualized revenue, its best to date. Microsoft ranks next at $15.56 billion, though could be upwards of $19 billion to $20 billion if it acquires Activision Blizzard this year. That’s based on the latter’s $7.53 billion annual figure reported yesterday, accounting for overlap and redundancies. Nintendo slots here at $12.25 billion, noticeably hamstrung by recent exchange rate shifts. However, Nintendo is currently more profitable than Sony’s PlayStation division when using the latest 12 months, earning $3.9 billion compared to $2.11 billion. Likely due to the cost of producing more PlayStation 5’s and developing AAA titles like God of War Ragnarök.
On the hardware front, this segment continues to cool. Although Switch is showing its age from both a commercial and spec standpoint, it’s still not quite near the end of its life just yet. Nintendo is committed to this device, and is still planning out its transition to the next one.
Unit shipments for Switch during the three months ending December totaled 8.25 million, compared to 10.67 million last holiday, or 23% lower. That brought the current 9-month total for this fiscal year to 14.91 million. At this same point in fiscal 2022, the figure was 18.95 million which implies a 21% decline. Interestingly, that’s the same percentage decline between 2021 and 2022.
Out of the units shipped through Q3 this year, 5.22 million were base model Switch. That’s down a whopping 56%, mainly because of the shift towards the OLED model being the standard version. The OLED model shipped 7.69 million in the last 9 months, nearly double the 3.99 million of its debut year since it started in October 2021. As for the Lite counterpart, sales through the third quarter declined 37% to 2 million units.
Referencing the aforementioned lifetime figure of 122.55 million, it’s approaching all-time best-selling gaming console territory. Can Switch really become the top seller? Well, it would have to beat out two devices in order to earn the crown. Which is a tall order.
After launching in 2004, Nintendo DS ended its life years later as the best-selling handheld device ever, achieving 154.02 million in sales. Almost two decades later, no portable has even come close. Then, the all-time leader right now is Sony’s PlayStation 2, which hit stores in 2000 and skyrocketed to 159 million throughout its tenure. Thus, Nintendo has to ship between 31.47 million and 32.45 million more Switch to reach these heights. If Switch’s successor launches in Late 2024 or Early 2025, that leaves seven to eight quarters for this to happen. An average of 4 to 4.5 million per quarter. While I do think it’s probably attainable, I don’t think I’d bet on it.
Shifting back to this recent report, Nintendo shared insight into numbers around Switch sell-thru to consumers. (Until now in this article, I’ve been talking about units shipped to retailers.) Executives say that people continue to have a “diversification of motives” for purchase, which includes first-time buyers or upgrades to OLED. Even so, sell-thru declined compared to last year, as it did in 2022 as well since it’s been trending downward after peaking during quarantine days.
It stands to reason that, while there’s still an appeal to grab a Switch especially at a retailer discount, fewer people are doing so which signals a nearly saturated market. Combine that with inventory difficulties and a lower average selling price, and we’re seeing a natural downswing in units produced plus revenue generated.
Software shipment data held stronger than hardware for Nintendo, mainly because of just how much demand there was for Pokémon and certain legacy titles reached new sales thresholds.
During the quarter, Switch software sales totaled 76.71 million. Compare that to 85.41 million units last year, thus a 10% decline. Across the three quarters ending December, software units were 172.11 million, down 4% against last year’s 179.29 million.
Software sales over Switch’s lifetime are drawing toward an incredible milestone. Last quarter, overall Switch software was at 917.59 million. Now, it’s 994.3 million. Nearly one billion games sold for the device since 2017! It’s likely cleared that by now, and we’ll know by exactly how much when the company reports next quarter.
During the latest 9-month period, the hybrid featured 27 titles that have sold a million units or more within that time period. Out of that, 19 were published by Nintendo. The remainder were third-party titles. Over the same length of time in fiscal 2022, the amount was 29 in total, 22 of which were Nintendo. Quality software remains the major appeal for Switch, even if existing users are purchasing them as opposed to new console owners.
November’s Pokémon Scarlet & Violet drove today’s results, as mentioned. It’s sold-thru 18.2 million copies to consumers over seven weeks. As if it wasn’t clear how ridiculous its start was, this stat will really put it into perspective: After mere weeks on sale, these are already the fourth best-selling titles ever in the franchise. That’s across all releases since Pokémon Red & Blue kicked things off in the mid-90s! I expect by the end of Switch’s time, it could be the best-selling Pokémon to date. We’re talking one of the biggest entertainment franchises in history! Truly unreal.
Bayonetta 3 hit stores in October as the other new release, and it’s officially a million seller. Developed in conjunction with Platinum Games, the action title started at a hair over 1 million, reaching 1.04 million during the period. That’s equivalent to lifetime sales of its predecessor’s port onto Switch, which hit the platform in February 2018.
Beyond the brand new games, Nintendo provided updates to those launched in earlier quarters during fiscal 2023. Splatoon 3, which splattered series records with its 7.9 million unit start back in September, has since passed the 10 million milestone, settling at 10.13 million. June’s Nintendo Switch Sports sold-in an additional 2.46 million units in the holiday months, scoring 8.61 million to date.
Additionally, the best-selling racing game ever in Mario Kart 8 Deluxe sped past yet another mile marker this quarter. This time it’s the 50 million mark! Shipping 3.59 million units in Q3, it’s now at exactly 52 million lifetime. Two other high sellers achieved new milestones as Super Smash Bros. Ultimate smashed 30 million and Super Mario Odyssey jumped past 25 million, to 30.44 million and 25.12 million respectively.
Beyond software sales numbers, Nintendo tends to give tidbits around engagement and user base statistics. Back in September, Nintendo Switch Online reached 36 million paid members. I’ll update this section if the company shares an updated figure. Otherwise, the “statistic” of Annual Playing Users, which measures the number of accounts that have opened a single Switch game over the past 12 months, rose to an all-time high of 112 million in December. It was 106 million in Q2. So, the vast majority of Switch owners still use it at least once a year. Shocking revelation!
Despite the outlined financial and unit sales reductions, Nintendo had quite an impressive third quarter as compared to recent years. Especially for revenue. Nintendo Switch beat out two iconic gaming device families for lifetime sales and Pokémon Scarlet & Violet had a frankly ridiculous performance. No doubt there are signals that parts of its business are coming down off recent highs, yet Nintendo has the sort of quality software lineup to soften the blows of hardware slowdowns.
Moving into the final quarter of its fiscal 2023 period, management shared updated guidance in today’s announcement. This is where a bit of nervousness creeps in, yet I’m not as concerned for the overall health of Nintendo’s trajectory. Especially given where it was during the dire straits of the Wii U years, this looks almost as rosy as ever.
Intriguingly, just after raising financial targets last quarter, executives reverted back to lower estimates this period. They adjusted their revenue forecast down 3% to $11.73 billion, implying a 6% decline since last fiscal year. Similarly, operating profit guidance was revised downward 4% to $3.52 billion. Even so, these updated figures would be the third best annual results since fiscal 2010.
Then for the second quarter in a row, Nintendo reduced annual Switch shipment guidance. Management now anticipates 18 million shipments, down 5% from Q2’s 19 million. That means the firm has to produce 3.09 million between January and March to end the fiscal period. Personally, I think it’s now a bit too conservative. My bet is it beats the target, moving upwards of 19 to 19.5 million, which is slightly below my target from three months ago.
Along the same lines, Nintendo lowered its annual software estimate 5 million units, or 2%, to 205 million. This is where I’m more skeptical, mainly because of a light slate in the three months ending March. A good portion of the 32.89 million needed this quarter to achieve that target has to be follow-on sales of things like Pokémon and Mario Kart. New releases that will also drive this include Fire Emblem Engage, which launched a couple weeks back, Kirby’s Return to Dream Land Deluxe later this month then March’s Bayonetta Origins: Cereza and the Lost Demon. These aren’t chart-toppers or anything.
One lingering question of course is might Advance Wars 1+2: Re-Boot Camp launch in the coming months? While Nintendo still has it as TBA in its reporting, alongside the likes of Metroid Prime 4, there’s speculation recently based on retailers that it could hit market soon, which could bump up software results. I remain cautious, the same way I’m thinking Nintendo will narrowly miss its latest annual software sales guidance.
“Sell-in of hardware units during the third quarter was generally in line with expectations,” management said. “However, hardware sell-through during the holiday season did not perform as expected, and therefore the unit sales forecast for the fourth quarter has been modified. The software unit sales forecast has been modified as well, largely due to taking into consideration the modification of the hardware unit sales forecast.”
Near the beginning of next fiscal year, May’s The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom is clearly the biggest launch for Nintendo in quite some time. It will be a massive success and compete for best-selling premium title of the year globally and in areas like Japan, though perhaps not domestically on The NPD Group’s lists since Nintendo doesn’t share digital sales here.
In an exceptional bit of news that bucks the industry trend lately, as many firms are laying off workers, Nintendo plans to raise employee salaries by 10% for those that work in Japan. Reuters reports this decision by management as inflation grips the local economy. While it will certainly increase costs, it’s the right way to maintain talent that drives its best-in-class output.
To showcase that output, the company is hosting its first Nintendo Direct of 2023 tomorrow. The 40-minute long presentation will primarily focus on Switch titles launching in the first half of the calendar year. I’m looking forward to seeing what’s there for Zelda, which ports Nintendo announces and any indication of future first-party announcements in what might very well be the final year of Switch.
Time flies!
Speaking of having fun, thus ends my latest big results recap of the season. What is your initial reaction to Nintendo’s results? Have you bought a Switch and contributed to that lifetime total? Will it reach that annual target? Are you betting it will be the best-selling console of all time eventually?
For now, feel free to leave a comment or hit me up on social media. Remember my earnings calendar thread for companies reporting this quarter across gaming, technology and media. Thanks as always for reading! All the best.
Note: Comparisons are year-over-year unless otherwise mentioned. Exchange rate is based on reported average conversion: US $1 to ¥136.39.
Sources: Company Investor Relations Websites, NBC News (Image Credit), Reuters.
What a quarter for PlayStation. Talk about bucking the trend!
I’ve been writing recently how this past holiday will be a mixed bag for many consumer technology firms, including gaming hardware manufacturers and software publishers. Sony is both of these things, and management is masterfully navigating the murky waters of our economic environment.
This fact is clearly illustrated when it reported third quarter fiscal 2022 results earlier today in Japan, in which the overall business grew double-digits and the PlayStation business unit achieved record Q3 sales and operating profit. The prior record-holder was this same quarter last year.
Within the report, it showcased growth across all PlayStation product categories. Hardware output more than doubled since last year, as did retail software, and digital content rose substantially. As I’ll show in a later chart.
PlayStation 5 (PS5) hardware had its best quarter to date measured by shipments, by a wide margin. Sony shipped 7.1 million PS5 units between October and December, up a whopping 82% compared to last holiday’s 3.9 million. That brings lifetime PS5 unit sales to 32.1 million. It’s now outsold the Sega Genesis, which peaked at 30.75 million overall.
Not only that, Sony actually increased its annual hardware guidance! While PS5’s better availability is impressive given higher input costs and supply chain disruptions of calendar 2022, it’s worth noting the console is still tracking below PlayStation 4 (PS4) at this same point in the early life cycle.
Partially driving demand for the new console was a suite of AAA games around this time. Third-party hits Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 and annualized sports games plus a system-seller like God of War Ragnarök alongside a supplementary title like Gran Turismo 7 significantly bolstered software, as both physical units and digital downloads soared.
“We are seeing steady results from the various measures we have taken in terms of both hardware and software,” management said in prepared remarks. “And we believe that we have created positive momentum to re-accelerate the growth of the game business centered on the expansion of the penetration of PlayStation 5.”
Here’s a deeper dive into the numbers behind this all-time holiday season, then a look at the company’s guidance and my predictions. Including a new chart format for the category mix!
Across the broader corporation, as shown in the above slides, Sony generated 13% more revenue this quarter up to $24 billion. Operating profit however declined 8%, to $3 billion. That second figure was the second best result in company history in local currency, behind only Q3 last year.
Shifting focus to the PlayStation segment alone, which is called Game & Network Services (G&NS) in Sony’s reporting. Sales increased a staggering 53% to $8.8 billion. Operating profit rose a more modest, yet still impressive, 25% to $820 million.
PlayStation exhibited exceptional top-line and profit growth that led to both of these figures being all-time records. Now it’s partially due to foreign exchange movement in a volatile rate environment, yet it’s mainly due to improving underlying fundamentals in its gaming business. Better hardware sales due to supply being there and demand staying strong, plus a big boost from first-party software. Even rising costs related to network business and acquisitions couldn’t hold profit back.
This was an astounding quarter. Looking at product category sales, nearly all of them moved up double-digits in Q3. Quite literally off the chart, as shown in the last one in the above gallery. Hardware was the biggest contributor at 35% of the total, since it more than doubled since last holiday. Add-On Content was the next biggest segment at 21%, even if it “only” increased 5%. Digital software comprised 20% of the PlayStation business, improving its sales 35% year-on-year. Physical Software proved to be the biggest mover from a growth standpoint, more than tripling.
Factoring in this latest record quarter, annualized revenue for G&NS is upwards of $22.84 billion right now. That’s the highest in history, tracking towards a best-ever year of sales. In fact, it’s $3 billion more than it’s ever been. I can’t overplay how well gaming is doing from a revenue standpoint, approaching a ridiculous $23 billion.
Profitability over the last 12-month period is a bit more tempered, as annual operating income totals $2.11 billion at present. It’s certainly recovering from where it was last quarter, trending towards pandemic highs.
Running down a quick comparison to industry peers, Sony is still in second place from a revenue standpoint. Tencent reports in March; for now, its annual sales are around $25.8 billion. PlayStation slots in here at the $22.84 billion. In Microsoft’s report last week, which I covered here, revenue over the last 12 months equaled $15.56 billion. Lastly, Nintendo is at $13 billion, though it has also yet to report and will do so next week. Keep in mind that a combined Microsoft and Activision Blizzard entity could eventually compete with Sony for second place, though I’d estimate it’s not above $20 billion to $21 billion just yet.
Now I’ll dig more into additional info from Sony on unit sales, network results and engagement stats for its gaming vertical.
Full game software sales declined in Q3, from 92.7 million to 86.5 million. That accounts for both internal teams and external publishers, including bellwethers like Call of Duty, Madden NFL and FIFA.
For first-party titles, this is where the real boost occurred. It nearly doubled from 11.3 million last year to 20.8 million. The bulk was, of course, driven by God of War Ragnarök which started at 5.1 million units during its launch week in November and has since reached the 11 million milestone. It’s the fastest-selling platform exclusive in PlayStation history across both of these time periods, a ridiculous result for the sequel to God of War (2018).
Within software, digital downloads compromised 62% of total game sales on PlayStation. That’s the exact same figure as last year, and only down slightly from 63% last quarter. The aforementioned growth of retail sales certainly affected this split.
Sony’s rebranded PlayStation Plus service now has 46.4 million subscribers, down compared to last year’s 48 million. Still, it’s higher than the 45.4 million last quarter thus showing sequential growth.
The other major user stat of Monthly Active Users (MAUs) edged up a million in Q3 to 112 million. It’s also 10 million higher than Q2, since the holiday season tends to attract new users and returning players alike. Sony also cited the transition to current generation hardware as a reason for user acquisition. The percentage of that 112 million that were solely on PS5 moved up to 30%, or roughly 33.6 million individual accounts.
“Engagement metrics of users who transitioned from PS4 to PS5, such as their PS Plus subscription rate, gameplay time, and average spending amount are significantly higher than those when they played on PS4,” executives said. “So we will continue to focus on accelerating the transition of PS4 users to PS5.”
Sony points out that almost 30% of MAUs on PS5 are users that never had a PS4, thus it’s attracting various new players, and payers, to the ecosystem. An essential part of any console business.
Intriguingly, for PlayStation players, total gameplay time declined 3% versus last Q3. Compared to the quarter ending September, it was up 6%. Focusing strictly on the month of December, hours jumped 14% compared to November.
“We believe that user engagement is on a recovery trend due to the penetration of PS5 and the contribution of hit titles,” management said. Based on the way hardware is trending, how high revenue has grown and its excellent title lineup last year, I certainly see that same trend.
It’s hard to overstate how exceptionally PlayStation performed in the months between October and December 2022.
To secure record revenue and profit during this macro environment, when people are facing inflation and returning to other activities, it’s truly the exception within consumer tech and gaming. Quite literally moving the opposite direction of a major peer like Microsoft. Even Apple is facing revenue challenges as it reports 5% decline in sales just this afternoon. Related publishers around the globe are struggling to outpace last year’s results. I’m supremely impressed with the leadership executing on its strategies, namely how it secured enough consoles to satiate pent-up demand.
Moving into the last quarter of its current fiscal year, management provided updated guidance for a variety of numbers. It slightly reduced total sales guidance down 1%, then bumped up operating income by 2 percentage points. These now imply around $81.2 billion in revenue and $8.33 billion in profit for fiscal 2022.
As for PlayStation, management reiterated its annual sales forecast which would be a record of $25.6 billion. It also raised guidance for gaming operating profit by around 7%, now expecting $1.7 billion for the year mainly because of currency movement. I think the top-line figure is fine for PlayStation as a segment, though firmly believe that operating profit forecast will be easily achieved. It feels too conservative given the latest holiday performance.
On the flip side, management is being even more aggressive on its PS5 unit sales outlook for the year. It’s raising the already high forecast by a million units, up to 19 million. Which would bring lifetime shipments to 38.3 million. All I can say is: Wow. Talk about upbeat! Right now, PS5 sales for fiscal 2022 are at 12.8 million thru 3 quarters. Sony needs to ship a massive 6.2 million in the 3 months ending this March in order to accomplish this target.
Now, I thought they were out of their collective mind last quarter. And I remain my usual skeptical self, considering 6.2 million is more than literally any other quarter in the PS5 life cycle other than this past holiday season. Management’s confidence must be rubbing off on me, as I think Sony will get close: I’m bumping my annual forecast to 17.5 million to 18 million.
What else could drive results into March? Well, PlayStation VR2 launches in a few weeks though I’m tepid on its commercial upside. Virtual reality remains a niche market, and the cost to entry is high for a peripheral that requires a pricey base console. I expect 1 million units to ship in the quarter ending March, yet a marginal impact on the bottom line considering it’s also costly to make headsets.
There’s also Sony’s transmedia push, which is paying dividends for both gaming and its Pictures division. In particular, the collaboration with HBO on The Last of Us is a smash hit and having broader audience appeal beyond any expectation. It’s attracting massive viewership and driving sales of September’s console release of The Last of Us Part 1, which is also launching on PC before fiscal year-end, and June 2020’s The Last of Us Part 2.
Well, talk about a lot to cover! It’s been a busy season already. Thanks for checking out another recap. Head on over to the latest earnings calendar for more dates to come, and I’ll have a full rundown of Nintendo’s results after the company publishes them next week.
Until then, be safe everyone!
Note: Comparisons are year-over-year unless otherwise noted. Exchange rate is based on reported average conversion: US $1 to ¥141.7.
Sources: Company Investor Relations Websites, HBO Max (Image Credit), USA Today (Image Credit).
First up on the new year’s earnings calendar is Microsoft, which reported its fiscal 2023 second quarter results last week.
Results were mixed in the holiday period for the software giant and its Xbox business, mostly expected coming off last year’s all-time highs. Just last quarter, gaming had its best Q1 ever.
That’s not the case for Q2, where normalization towards pre-pandemic levels has started in earnest. Even so, it was still one of the best quarters in Xbox history, which is important to keep in mind as headlines are often gloomier than reality.
In the three months ending December, Microsoft’s gaming revenue showed a double digit decline for the first time in three years. Mainly due to a sparse exclusive game slate, lower third-party monetization and ongoing hardware challenges. From a dollar standpoint, it was still the third best Q2 ever for Xbox, as I’ll illustrate soon. The sky isn’t anywhere near falling.
Executives tried to paint a picture around engagement and Xbox Game Pass while not providing any updated subscription numbers for its flagship service. On the bright side, they did share an updated figure for Monthly Active Users (MAUs) across the Xbox ecosystem as it passed a major milestone by year-end.
“In gaming, we continue to pursue our ambition to give players more choice to play great games wherever, whenever, and however they want,” said CEO Satya Nadella. “We saw new highs for Game Pass subscriptions, game streaming hours, and monthly active devices.”
I’ll now move into the underlying numbers for the latest quarter, then provide a look ahead to the back half of Microsoft’s fiscal year.
Between October and December, Xbox generated $4.76 billion in revenue which is 13% lower than the same time last year. That was in-line with guidance. While this number is the lowest it’s been in three years, it’s the third best Q2 in history only behind the latest two.
This historical context really illustrates the sort of impact quarantine spending had on the industry, as just last year Xbox recorded an all-time second quarter revenue high of $5.44 billion.
Executives pointed to this strong comparable as the main reason Xbox suffered declines across first and third-party content plus lower hardware sales output. I wouldn’t necessarily call it an outright disappointing holiday season; it’s just not nearly as good as last year.
One caveat is currency impact on this figure. You’ll see in the above slides that total gaming sales were down 9% in “constant currency.” This implies a 4% impact from exchange rate movement. I tend to report the overall figure because global companies must navigate these shifts, while also noting this particular point when fluctuations are especially drastic.
Taking into account the latest quarter, current annual gaming revenue stands at $15.56 billion. As shown in my chart, Xbox segment sales have been slowing lately after peaking around a year ago. It was bolstered by last holiday’s record quarter until now. This chart also keeps quarterly movement in context as it smooths out the results, displaying how well gaming has been faring versus the Xbox One generation.
Within these articles I like to run a quick comparison to industry peers, even this early in the season. Tencent currently has the most annual revenue from gaming, at upwards of $25.8 billion. Sony reached $20 billion. Here is where Microsoft’s $15.56 billion slots in, while Nintendo rounds out the list at $13 billion. If accounting for Activision Blizzard’s latest $7.4 billion in annual sales and assuming roughly $2 billion in redundancies and overlap, the combined entity could have between $20 billion to $21 billion in annual gaming output, potentially matching PlayStation depending on where exchange rates go.
Now, revenue isn’t the sole metric by which a division’s health is measured. Microsoft doesn’t share specifics on Xbox’s profitability, so we’re left to infer here based on its More Personal Computing (MPC) business segment results. Gross margin dollars reduced by 29%, driven by a mix towards lower margin businesses that include gaming. Expenses rose 6%, thus segment operating income dropped 47% to $3.32 billion. All of this implies profitability dropped in the quarter for Xbox, consistent with its lower sales output.
Moving over to category mix to show the underlying dynamics. Within the Xbox business, both sub-segments of Xbox Content & Services and Xbox Hardware experienced comparable double-digit declines as the business cooled.
The larger contributor Content & Services, which includes software and subscriptions, lowered 13% in the quarter. Right at company guidance. It accounted for $3.38 billion in sales, or 71% of Xbox’s total. Nearly the same contribution as last year, and lower than recent quarters since its hardware counterpart has been inconsistent.
During the last 12 months, Content & Services has generated $12 billion in revenue, making up 77% of annual gaming sales. It’s been at that same exact percentage for the last six consecutive quarters.
As has been tradition, Microsoft yet again didn’t share an update on Xbox Game Pass subscription figures. The latest of 25 million is way outdated, from back around September 2021. I often say that we learn just as much, if not more, from what a company doesn’t share. This is one of those cases. I assumed Microsoft would boast when it passed 30 million subscribers, so I assume it’s below that right now. In my predictions piece for 2023, I said it could reach that threshold by Microsoft’s fiscal year-end in June and move higher in the back half on the strength of new releases. I just hope Microsoft is more transparent, at some point.
Thankfully executives did provide another engagement stat: MAUs for the Xbox network overall. Finally. Two years ago, this figure crossed the 100 million user threshold. Now, according to Nadella, it’s at a record 120 million. Thus recently averaging 10 million per year in user growth and nearly double the 65 million achieved back in fiscal 2019. It makes sense that management would point to this within its strategy that emphasizes ecosystem over hardware, expanding its offering to more devices than ever and making a play that stacks up accounts as opposed to unit sales.
Rounding out the category mix with Xbox Hardware, this segment declined 13% to $1.38 billion. The slides cited both a lower average price and number of units sold compared to last holiday, which I’d call somewhat of a concern at this early life cycle stage. Also concerning is the dollar output, which is less than the second quarter in both 2018 and 2019 during the middle of last generation. It shows a few things: hardware is less important to the overall Xbox business than ever before, the lower-priced Xbox Series S is contributing a substantial share plus supply constraints continued into the quarter as competitors were able to better navigate the cost environment.
On an annualized basis, Xbox Hardware is tracking at $3.6 billion in sales right now. The lowest in six quarters. It bucks the trend of a traditional console cycle, where sales should be increasing in the early years. Note that the Xbox Series X|S family of devices launched in November 2020.
It begs the question: How many Xbox Series X|S consoles have shipped to date? Last quarter, I estimated between 17.5 million and 18 million. Given the revenue indicators and supply situation, I guess it’s approaching 21.5 to 22 million at this point, implying around 4 million shipped in the holiday quarter. This would be virtually in-line with Xbox One at this point in the life cycle (22.1 million). My estimate is partially because I notice Nadella is no longer boasting the family as the fast-selling in Xbox history. And it’s nowhere near its current generation counterpart. Sony’s PlayStation 5 recently passed 30 million sold-thru to consumers, and was already at 25 million lifetime shipped in September, showing strength in availability towards the latter parts of calendar 2022.
Fitting the general themes of macro pressure on tech in particular, Microsoft overall had its slowest quarterly growth in six years and missed analyst estimates. Top-line sales rose 2% to $52.7 billion, while analysts thought it would be above $53 billion. Microsoft Cloud alone increased 22% to $27.1 billion in sale, which met expectations. MPC was the only segment to decline, moving down almost 20% to $14.2 billion on PC market weakness and high output last year.
On the profit side, operating income declined 8% to $20.4 billion. Profitability was impacted by a $1.2 billion charge related to laying off 10,000 employees, or 4.5% of its workforce, which the company announced earlier this month. That’s a lot of talented people losing their jobs, notably in a shift towards artificial intelligence businesses, and I hope they are able to find success elsewhere.
General slowdowns hit both Microsoft and its Xbox division during the holiday period, even if it was still one of Xbox’s best quarters when compared to recent history. Higher Xbox Game Pass subscriptions propped up weakness elsewhere, especially the first-party game lineup, and hardware results reveal that the Xbox Series X|S family needs to ramp up supply as soon as possible.
I’ll finish up here with guidance for the next quarter, ending this March, according to Chief Financial Office (CFO) Amy Hood.
Management expects gaming revenue to decline in the “high-single digits.” Assuming it’s down 8%, that implies quarterly Xbox revenue of $3.44 billion. Its lowest in three years.
Xbox Content & Services revenue will decline in the “low-single digits.” Hood claims Xbox Game Pass user growth will outpace “lower monetization per hour” in both first and third-party games. It’s a corporate way to say subscriptions will rise while active engagement, and thus spending, will be down. Let’s assume the decline is 5%, implying Q3 sales of $2.86 billion from Xbox Content & Services.
Microsoft didn’t actually provide an outlook for Xbox Hardware. Based on the above, signals are pointing to another double-digit drop that might be upwards of 20%. The current quarter is a continuation of last year, where first-party output is light and the supply of Xbox Series X in particular will be hamstrung.
Still, the calendar will pick up soon as Xbox Game Studios will publish Minecraft Legends in April then Redfall in May. Thing is, I’m not expecting either of these to move the needle in a major way on the financial side. Certainly not as much as something like Starfield or Forza Motorsport, both of which are slated for this year without a concrete window. Personally I’d be surprised if Starfield makes it out by the fiscal year-end in June.
Speaking of June, Microsoft management reiterated on the conference call that, while its guidance doesn’t include any impact, they continue to anticipate the $69 billion Activision Blizzard deal will close by then. I’m way more skeptical on that front, as displayed in my aforementioned predictions article.
Thus ends my first big recap of 2023, in what will be a shaky quarter for many public companies across the games industry and related sectors. Check back soon for more analysis and a full rundown of results for platform holders Sony and Nintendo. Thanks for reading! Be well, all.
Note: Comparisons are year-over-year unless otherwise noted.
New year, same old calendar. It’s the first earnings season of 2023!
Long-time fans of the site know this is the place for the most comprehensive calendar of earnings dates covering companies across gaming, media and technology. The perfect post for any bookmarks bar.
My calendar’s grown over the years, now boasting over a hundred companies including content publishers, consumer electronic manufactures, software developers, cloud giants, media providers, independent game makers and internet conglomerates. I guarantee there’s something here for everyone.
The latest quarter of results will include sales from the highly-coveted holiday season for those involved in pushing products or attracting eyeballs. In general, it was a challenging quarter across these industries coming off highs of 2021, including a number of record-setting reports. Cost inflation, geopolitical issues and supply disruptions are all still present in the market, among other macroeconomic pressures. This year is off to a tough start for many folks in the tech industry in particular, as layoffs at major firms like Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon impact talented people whom I hope land on their feet.
In order to track everything, I’ve organized the above image and the below Google Sheets document for easy usage. I’ve also listed out three key companies to watch in the coming weeks within these industries. Thanks for visiting!
When Activision Blizzard reports its fiscal fourth quarter report in February, the big story remains the pending acquisition by Microsoft which has potentially hit snags in key regulatory markets. There’s also the tenuous relationship between management and workers during ongoing unionization efforts, plus workplace condition improvements that executives claim are happening. I don’t expect much in this department, though it would be ideal to hear more about how executives plan to make it a better place to work.
In terms of results, all signs point to Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 having a massive holiday, so I expect Activision’s contribution to be sizeable which will boost the overall company on a growth trajectory. On the other hand, I’m bearish on Overwatch 2 and Blizzard’s recent output. Looking ahead, forecasts should be strong as Diablo IV launches in June and there’s still the mysterious language around this year’s “premium” Call of Duty release. Could this be an opportunity to say if it’s a new annualized title or an expansion for the latest game? While I’d welcome it, color me a skeptic.
Embracer Group (EMBRAC B): Thursday, February 16th
During mid-February, when Embracer Group reports its third fiscal financials of 2022, the big question will loom: Are there any companies soon to be embraced by its acquisition touch? All has been quiet lately on the purchasing front for Embracer since snatching up Square Enix assets last year, curious for a company known to gobble up studios big and small to expand its robust portfolio and add to the “quantity over quality” strategy. As of its recent Q2 update, the broader group has 12 operating groups, almost 16 thousand employees, 132 internal studios and a whopping 234 projects in the pipeline. Twenty five of which are supposedly AAA level launches due by March 2026.
Still, partially on lackluster reception of key titles like Saints Row and the recent delay of Dead Island 2 yet again, the company reduced its full-year forecast. Combine that with a major structural change in Volition, the team behind Saints Row, becoming a part of Gearbox Publishing, and I’m curious about the viability of big budget releases for Embracer as opposed to targeting that mid-cost tier like SpongeBob SquarePants and Goat Simulator alongside select re-releases of legacy game properties. Its business is now diversified enough to weather storms, yet I’m still waiting for the sort of organic growth that comes from buying companies over a number of years.
Ubisoft (UBI): Thursday, February 16th
Out of all the big third-party gaming publishers, Ubisoft had a tough go in 2022. Even before its upcoming third quarter earnings announcement, it preemptively shared a gloomy financial update and outlook change just a couple weeks back. In addition to blaming macroeconomic conditions, the same ones its peers are operating under, management pointed to costs associated with cancelling three more unannounced projects on top of four it already killed back in July. Part of the rough patch is under-performance from Mario + Rabbids: Sparks of Hope and Just Dance 2023, the former being the most baffling considering how well Nintendo Switch titles tend to sell.
In what’s turned into a meme, Ubisoft also yet again delayed pirate game Skull & Bones to an undetermined time in “early fiscal 2023 – 2024.” Reports recently point to the company experimented with upwards of a dozen battle royale projects, following its theme of chasing trends instead of setting them. CEO Yves Guillemot and team claim that upcoming releases like Assassin’s Creed Mirage and Avatar: Frontiers of Pandora will bolster the business and help its return to growth, yet I’m skeptical this can actually be a bounce-back year for Ubisoft. I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s been quietly shopping itself around to potential buyers, perhaps garnering interest from Tencent or Amazon, because its model hasn’t been working lately. 2023 is as important a year as ever in the company’s history, and its future as a going concern.
The latest of the big three console manufacturers to report this quarter, behind Microsoft and Sony, shared its fiscal 2023 second quarter results out of Japan earlier today.
I’d call it mostly upbeat, as both sales and operating profit experienced gains, yet it’s also dashed with cautionary signals and statistics. There’s upside, partially due to the yen’s continued weakness, while headwinds on the supply side and an aging life cycle show signs of a console business slowdown.
Headlines include how Switch passed yet another sales milestone this quarter while Splatoon 3 made quite the splash for consumers after its release in September. Especially in its local Japanese market.
On the hardware side, Nintendo Switch lifetime sales reached 114.33 million after the company shipped 3.22 in the three months ending September. It’s only the third home console to pass the 114 million mark. Still, Nintendo is somewhat uneasy about this portion of its business going forward, reducing in its annual unit sales forecast.
Splatoon 3 was the headliner for new software, shipping a whopping 7.9 million units in less than a month on market. That’s a record-setting launch for the franchise by a wide margin, plus the second fastest start of any Switch game this calendar year behind only January’s Pokémon Legends: Arceus.
Looking briefly at financial performance during the first six months of the current fiscal year, Nintendo’s net sales and operating profit rose 5% and under half a percent, respectively. While hardware unit sales are down 19% for the year so far, software sales are up almost 2% which shows the resilience of Switch buyers and reflects the ongoing appeal of Nintendo’s quality titles. Even amidst economic slowdowns and inflationary pressure.
Thus, executives decided to increase their forward-looking forecast for both net sales and profit metrics other than operating income, the latter of which kept constant. As the Switch pushes into the late part of its life cycle, Nintendo remains upbeat on consumers buying content for it, especially given the upcoming calendar including a sizeable impact from Pokémon launches this holiday season.
“Although software sales accounted for a larger percentage of overall sales for our dedicated video game platform business, and first-party software accounted for a larger percentage of overall software sales, the gross profit margin remained at the same level as the same period last fiscal year.” the company wrote in its slides. “This was due to the addition of Nintendo Switch OLED Model to the hardware lineup with its lower profit margin compared to other models, and the increase in component costs due to factors such as the semiconductor shortage.”
Check below the folder for a full dive into Nintendo’s business during Q2, including company guidance and my personal predictions for the annual period ending March 2023.
Starting with Nintendo’s overall performance, net sales for the six months bumped up 5% to roughly $4.91 billion. Focusing strictly on the quarter ending September, this was up 16% to $2.61 billion.
As has been the case recently for Japanese companies, there’s currently an outsized impact from currency fluctuations which hits those that operate globally even more than the average. Currently, around 72% of Nintendo’s business is outside of Japan. Because of this, the company said the impact of exchange rate changes on first half net sales was upwards of around $480 million. Backing that out, revenue for this time might even be down 5%.
Personally, I tend to stick with the gross number because currency impact is something that’s faced by all global companies. It’s still good to understand how much it’s affecting a company’s business when a given local currency is dropping as precipitously as the yen.
Alright, enough of this currency exchange rate lesson. Shifting now towards operating profit, this particular metric rose slightly in the first half to around $1.65 billion. Strictly for the second quarter alone, it amounted to $887 million which grew more than 18%.
Essentially this shows how both net sales and operating profit increased by double-digits during Nintendo’s second fiscal quarter.
What kind of product category mix was underlying this movement? Well, for Q2, software amounted to almost 60% of total sales compared to 55% this time last year. It follows that hardware sales dipped to 40%, down from 45%. This reflects the shift away from Switch console contribution as the cycle matures, plus the challenges of production the manufacturer and its suppliers have faced lately.
“While hardware unit sales declined by volume year-on-year due in part to the semiconductor shortage, overall hardware sales increased mainly due to the depreciation of the yen.” the company’s slides noted. “Looking at our mobile and IP related business, royalty income remained stable, but income from smart-device content declined.”
To better understand the quarterly movement in sales and profitability within a broader context, you’ll see the first two charts below illustrating this movement over time and the next two are annual figures. It was the second best quarterly output in the last decade plus. Twelve-month trailing numbers are moving back in a positive direction. Nintendo’s business is proving to be resilient, notably due to high quality game releases plus the aforementioned currency movement, plus hardware is still selling when it’s hitting retail. Not to mention, people that bought Switches during the pandemic still seem to be spending on games.
How do Nintendo’s latest numbers stack up to the biggest industry peers and their gaming businesses? While Tencent doesn’t report until later in the month, its latest annual revenue was $24 billion. Sony’s gaming business generated $20 billion, while Microsoft’s Xbox division topped $16 billion. Nintendo is up next, with its current annual sales figure at almost $13 billion. However, Nintendo’s profitability is vastly superior to PlayStation; the former has generated more than twice as much operating profit in the last 12 months, $4.43 billion compared to under $2 billion. PlayStation’s investment in the new PlayStation 5 line of consoles, the Bungie acquisition and ramping developments in software and virtual reality are chomping a serious chunk of its bottom line.
Nintendo’s hardware business is clearly slowing in terms of share and shipments, however there are a number of bright spots showing that Switch’s life cycle is far from complete. In fact, it’s going to hit major milestones in the near future.
During the first six months of fiscal 2023, Nintendo shipped 6.68 million Switch units. This is 19% lower than the same period last year, when it was 8.28 million. The drop can be attributed to the base model, which produced 2.23 million units against last year’s 6.4 million. Obviously the OLED model saw tremendous growth considering it launched in October 2021. As it replaces the base version, it now makes up over half of Switch’s total unit sales.
The lifetime unit sales of 114.33 million is up 21.46 million since September of last year, when it totaled 92.87 million. Switch has maintained its respective spot as the third best-selling home and portable console of all time. The popular hybrid is closing in on Sony’s PlayStation 4, the second best-selling home console in history, which ended production recently at just over 117 million. Even further, the 118.69 million of Game Boy and Game Boy Color is also in sight.
By the end of Nintendo’s financial year in March 2023, if not the holiday quarter, the Switch will occupy the second spot on the all-time list for both home and handheld hardware. What a run! And it’s not nearly done.
All of these are based on the number of units shipped to retailers by Nintendo. Additionally, the company shared some insight into how it’s selling-thru to consumers. Compared to the July to September time frame last year, Switch is selling-thru at the same rate. From what I can see on Nintendo’s slides, sell-through last year was roughly 3.4 million units of Switch in the quarter and just slightly less this time around. Even though shipments declined by roughly 15% this Q2.
This was attributed to demand being stable, and the introduction of Splatoon 3 alongside its more ongoing titles that still attract interest. That second part especially is the driver of Nintendo’s ongoing attractiveness to buyers, and investors, plus its financial performance. Consistent demand for its hardware products bolstered by key exclusives, especially as the technology gap with modern consoles continues to widen.
Speaking of games, Nintendo Switch software unit sales rose a bit in the six month period, moving up 1.6% to 95.41 million. For the quarter ending September alone, it was exactly 54 million. Compare that to 48.6 million in the same 3 months last year and this reiterates what makes the company so consistent.
On the fiscal year so far, Switch has seen 15 titles ship a million copies or more. Eleven of these so-called “million-sellers” are published by Nintendo itself while the remainder are via external partners. While this is down from 18 in the same period last year, it’s still a healthy amount of games hitting this coveted milestone.
Unit sales for Switch games lifetime have now crossed the massive 900 million milestone. To be exact, 917.59 million games have shipped for the console. That figure was at 681 million this time last year, meaning over 236 million games have sold in the past year. It’s hard to put these numbers in perspective, other than to say that’s a heck of a lot. While it won’t quite hit 1 billion this fiscal year, it will certainly eclipse that the following year.
In the new release realm, Splatoon 3 blasted its way onto the market in September with that 7.9 million copies sold number. That includes 5 million from Japan alone! To help put this in perspective, here’s how its predecessors started during their first respective quarters: Splatoon 2 sold-in 3.61 million in 2017 while 2015’s original Splatoon debuted at 1.62 million.
First month sales of Splatoon 3 are already more than halfway to the 13.3 million lifetime figure of Splatoon 2! It’s already among the Top 20 best-selling titles published by Nintendo on Switch to date, coming in at #18. It’s truly become one of Nintendo’s flagship entries, and the biggest commercial success of its new IP this generation.
The other new title showcased in Nintendo’s earnings was Xenoblade Chronicles 3. Since its launch in late July, it’s accumulated 1.72 million in units sales. While that might not sound like a lot in the context of other Switch games, this is an exceptional result for the Xeno universe. Back in 2017, its predecessor Xenoblade Chronicles 2 started with 1.31 million and was the top-selling title ever for developer Monolith Soft at the time. Now, Xenoblade Chronicles 3 has captured that crown.
In other record-breaking news, Kirby and the Forgotten Land sold-in an additional 2.61 million units during Q2, making its lifetime total 5.27 million. This is substantial because it’s now the best-selling mainline Kirby game of all time, outpacing the 3.98 million of 2021’s Kirby Star Allies. Keep in mind, this is a 30-year old franchise in collaboration between Nintendo and HAL Laboratory. What a fantastic success story!
Elsewhere, Nintendo Switch Sports is now the 20th best-selling Nintendo-published title on Switch, reaching 6.15 million units. Mario Strikers: Battle League passed the 2-million mark, settling at 2.17 million. Then there’s more impressive milestones from Mario Kart 8 and Animal Crossing: New Horizons, which seem to stand out every time I write an article on Nintendo. Mario Kart 8 zipped past the 48 million mark, somehow selling 1.59 million in the quarter to reach 48.41 million lifetime. Animal Crossing: New Horizons is the latest in the 40 million club, achieving 40.17 million to date.
This is where I like to provide updates on subscription numbers for Nintendo Switch Online or any sort of engagement statistics from the company. And now I can! Nintendo’s corporate briefing, updated a day after its earnings report, said that Nintendo Switch Online now has 36 million members. Compare that to 32 million in September 2021. Also, the company noted that the (frankly made up) metric of “Annual Playing Users” rose to 106 million. It was 104 million last quarter.
Considering the macro environment right now and pressure on consumers from areas like inflation and the appeal of other entertainment verticals, Nintendo’s Q2 performance was mostly promising. Especially when looking at the quarter on its own, rather than the six months, which revealed double-digit gains for important financial metrics. As Switch approaches its sixth birthday in the midst of various economic challenges, the console and its games still hold mass market appeal.
Alongside, Nintendo provided updated guidance for the remaining six months of its fiscal year.
The company now expects to generated 3% more, or upwards of $12.3 billion, in annual net sales. This would be a modest 3% decline compared to the prior year. It also maintained its operating profit target of $3.73 billion, indicating a 16% decline.
“While there is a gradual improvement in semiconductor and other component supplies and a recovery trend in hardware manufacturing for Nintendo Switch, taking into consideration production and sales performances thus far, we have modified the Nintendo Switch hardware sales units forecast for the fiscal year,” said the company’s slides. “By continually working to front-load production and selecting appropriate transportation methods in preparation for the holiday season, we will work to deliver as many Nintendo Switch systems as possible to consumers around the world.”
Thus, Nintendo now expects to ship 19 million Switch hardware units in the year ending March 2023. That’s down from 21 million it expected last quarter. For reference, it shipped 23 million in the prior fiscal year. Based on the 6.68 million already on market in the six months ending September, that leaves 12.32 million during the back half. Most of that will have to come during the holiday period.
My forecast last quarter saw 20 million on the lower end. Based on where supply has been and Nintendo’s conservative tilt, I’m formally pulling down to a range of 19.5 million to 20 million.
And no, I don’t expect its price to increase.
The company’s estimate for annual software unit sales remained the same at 210 million, which would be down from 235 million in fiscal 2022. As I wrote last quarter, I’m a bit skeptical it can reach this mark. Especially now that The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom has a May release.
Mario + Rabbids: Sparks of Hope and Bayonetta 3 launched a couple weeks back, though both remain more niche than many of their counterparts or mainline entries. The real drivers will be, of course, Pokémon Scarlet and Pokémon Violet. The franchise seems immune to over-saturation and sells big on a consistent basis. I’m expecting a grand entrance for these, with a potentially record-setting start. Otherwise, Nintendo’s slate in the coming months is light. Even the Super Mario Bros. Movie isn’t out until April!
The last item I’d like to mention is Nintendo’s announcement of entering into a joint venture with long-time partner DeNA Co. Ltd. Both companies have collaborated on the technical side of Nintendo’s account system along with mobile offerings since 2015, and this latest venture will even be a Nintendo subsidiary due to its size and capital structure.
“Based on the expertise accumulated over the seven plus years and the experience of co-developing multiple services based on Nintendo Account, Nintendo and DeNA will advance their partnership and establish a joint venture company.” said the company’s announcement. “With the objective to strengthen the digitalization of Nintendo’s business, the joint venture company will research and develop, as well as create value-added services to further reinforce Nintendo’s relationship with consumers.”
I welcome this sort of team-up, and really anything that can bring Nintendo’s digital capabilities and online services closer to its competitors.
With that, this concludes my third big recap of the last couple weeks. What stood out to you with Nintendo’s latest announcement? Do you think it can meet or exceed its latest targets? Are you planning to buy a Switch or any games in the coming months? Drop a line her or on Twitter, I’m always down for a discussion!
Feel free to hop back over to my earnings calendar to stay current, as there’s plenty of action still to come this season. Thanks y’all for visiting and I hope everyone is doing well!
Note: Comparisons are year-over-year unless otherwise mentioned. Exchange rate is based on reported average conversion: US$1 to ¥133.93.
As the calendar turns to November, the ongoing earnings season across gaming, tech and media keeps on rolling. Those who follow my latest calendar post will know it’s only picking up steam!
Yesterday, Sony announced fiscal 2022 second quarter results. It’s the definition of a mixed bag, akin to receiving both an apple and candy bar while trick-or-treating! (I miss the spooky season already.)
Overall the Japanese consumer tech company saw improved sales and profitability. Within the PlayStation business, revenue rose in the double-digits to its best fiscal Q2 on record. However, operating profit saw a precipitous drop of nearly 50% in what was one of its toughest outcomes in recent memory.
Underlying this dynamic of good top-line growth yet decreasing profitability was favorable impact from exchange rate movement, as the Japanese yen is near its weakest point in decades. It’s also attributed to lower software output from external publishers. Then, for profit, better margins for PlayStation 5 hardware couldn’t offset high expenses from ongoing development and acquisition activity, namely the purchase of Bungie.
Speaking of hardware, PlayStation 5 lifetime unit sales reached 25 million after Sony shipped 3.3 million units in the quarter ending September. That’s the same exact quarterly shipment amount as last year. While it now outpaces Nintendo GameCube’s 21.74 million and the original Xbox at 24 million, it’s still hitting market at a much slower pace than its predecessor. Sony is upbeat on the remainder of this fiscal year at least, reiterating its 18 million shipped target. Which means it must reach 12.3 million in the back half. Read my predictions later in the piece to see if I agree.
As for engagement stats given the rebranding of PlayStation Plus during this quarter, it’s better than it first appears. From a subscriber and active user standpoint, things are looking down as both PlayStation Plus and Monthly Active Users (MAUs) across the network declined. However, Network Services dollar revenue is up double-digits. Which means the rebranding is attracting buyers that are spending more, and shedding those that aren’t interested in paying within the ecosystem. It’s actually been a win for PlayStation, despite a lower subscriber count.
“Production itself has been quite well,” said Sony Chief Financial Officer Hiroki Totoki. “We have the decline of MAUs and the other indices. The second quarter, more people are now going outdoors. And we have yet to get out of the negative cycles. PlayStation 4’s and third-party software sales have been rather sluggish. Catalog and historical titles have been declining. Against that, PlayStation 5 engagement is quite high.”
That said, here’s a deep dive into Sony’s latest numbers.
Sony’s consolidated results for the latest quarter are shown on the first slide above, and the remainder reveal insight into its Game & Network Services (G&NS) business.
Overall sales moved up 16% to $19.91 billion, while operating profit rose 8% to almost $2.5 billion. Both of these figures are best-ever second quarter results, as reported in Japanese yen. Even amidst a global scenario that’s experiencing economic slowdowns and rising inflation, Sony is proving to be resilient so far.
Now onto the PlayStation business. This unit improved quarterly revenue by 12% to a Q2 record $5.2 billion, contributing 26% of the company’s total. Operating income on the other hand was hit hard in the three months ending September, dropping 49% to $305 million.
On the top-line, these gaming results benefited from currency fluctuations even as sales of software not published by PlayStation softened. Profitability was drastically eroded by the aforementioned content sales drop and higher expenses amidst rising costs in general. There was a bit of good news sprinkled, as Sony indicated it’s losing less money on hardware in recent months.
Moving into the product sales split chart will help illustrate these talking points, showcasing what’s driving PlayStation right now. All categories were either flat or up, many of them in the double-digits. Intriguingly, Physical Software saw the biggest gain at 32%. Next up was Network Services, clearly benefiting from PlayStation Plus’ new tiered system (as cumbersome as it might be). Digital Software rose 14% while Hardware moved up 12% on better inventories. Add-On Content was the only source not to grow; though it also didn’t lose any ground, coming in flat for the quarter.
To help provide even more perspective, there are two additional charts showing the last 12 months of sales and profit for PlayStation. Summing up the last four quarters, Sony’s annual gaming revenue is currently nearly $20.3 billion. That’s the second best trailing 12-month revenue in PlayStation history, nearly identical to last year’s figure. On the flip side, the last year of operating income being under $2 billion is the worst in over two-and-a-half years. This clearly shows the challenge for Sony when it comes to gaming, maintaining profitability in a cooling economic situation as it pushes forward with big budget projects.
As I did in my recent article on Microsoft’s latest results, here’s a quick rundown of where PlayStation’s annual sales fit in the industry right now. I’ll mention the same caveat: when converted to United States dollars, the Japanese companies look a bit lighter than usual because of yen weakness. That said, Tencent’s $24 billion from gaming is tops. Sony maintains the second slot with its nearly $20 billion, while Xbox continues in third with $16 billion. Nintendo, which reports next week, was at $13 billion though that will likely move up.
Moving on from the financial side, here’s a closer look at Sony’s supplemental information highlighting even more recent stats for the G&NS division.
Full game software sales across PlayStation platforms totaled 62.5 million in Q2, which is down 18% or almost 14 million units since the same three months in fiscal 2021. This is partly driven by release slate, where last year saw titles like Ratchet & Clank: Rift Apart just before the quarter started then launches for both Ghost of Tsushima Director’s Cut and Deathloop. This year’s flagship was solely The Last of Us Part 1.
First party titles sold nearly a million less units in Q2 this year, at 6.7 million compared to 7.6 million. Even considering third party titles, mainly in the sports genre, content sales proved to be lighter. Digital split within full game software remained relatively constant, at 63% in Q2 versus 62% last year.
“When we compare software sales for this quarter with the same period of the previous fiscal year, we see sales of past library titles declined sharply, while sales of major new titles remained strong,” management said. “Users appear to be playing a smaller number of titles out of a desire to spend less money.”
Then there’s the element of subscription services and player engagement. PlayStation Plus ended September with 45.4 million subscribers, down 1.8 million since last year and 1.9 million compared with last quarter. This was mainly due to user engagement on PlayStation 4 performing worse than the company anticipated.
MAUs across the PlayStation network moved down to 102 million, seeing similar contractions against last year’s 104 million and Q1’s 103 million. Sony pointed out that total gameplay time rose “slightly” compared to the prior quarter, it declined 10%. Why? People have more opportunities to “go outside” now that COVID 19 infections are trending down. Basically, gamers are apparently touching more grass.
The last tidbit provided by executives during their prepared remarks is that PlayStation Plus subscriber ratio among PlayStation 5 general is “significantly above” that of PlayStation 4. Which makes sense, it’s a much more digital world now that’s open to paying for subscriptions like this and Xbox Game Pass. Sony’s latest rebranding and alignment of services shows its focus on attracting people to its ecosystem, so they can spend within it.
Thus concludes what I’d classify as one of PlayStation’s most divergent quarters in recent memory, presenting a clear divide between record sales and diminishing profits.
Sales growth is great to see, especially for Hardware and Network Services. I’d still argue that reigning in costs is much more important given today’s recessionary environment. PlayStation 5 availability is better than it’s been since launch and demand is certainly there on the consumer side. Its Sony’s expenditures on big budget projects, including PlayStation VR2 as a new peripheral, and buying of studios like Bungie that impacts the bottom line.
Management’s forward-looking guidance for the second half of fiscal 2022 reflects this same situation. First, it raised total company guidance for both sales and operating profit by 1% and 5% respectively. Then, it expects slightly higher sales from PlayStation however is forecasting 12% lower operating profit. This is much more in-line with my expectations.
As I mentioned above, PlayStation 5’s full year target is still 18 million units. Management claims that both material supply and logistical challenges have eased, thus it actually produced 6.5 million in Q2 and shipped around half of those to retail. I remain skeptical, keeping my previous annual estimate of between 15 and 16 million.
If it happens to meet the 12.3 million PlayStation 5 units required in the back half of fiscal 2022 to get there, lifetime sales would be 37.3 million by March 2023. Still below the 40 million of PlayStation 4 during the same time frame. It sounds like Sony’s target for fiscal year 2023 is 23 million, trying to make up ground on its predecessor. I think it will need more than that.
While Sony doesn’t provide formal guidance on software, I’m quite bullish on the next quarter and into the first calendar portion of 2023. Mainly because of two major new releases, one first-party and the other multi-platform. God of War Ragnarok hits market next week, and will rival or outpace the year’s biggest PlayStation 5 exclusives. As part of this report, Sony shared updated unit sales for God of War (2018): It’s now reached 23 million units, up from just under 20 million a year ago.
Then of course we have Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2, what I expect to be 2022’s best-selling premium title. Yes, even considering the beast that is Elden Ring. Activision Blizzard’s Call of Duty franchise is on another level, especially its Modern Warfare sub-brand, seeing as this year’s title earned a record opening weekend of $800 million in sales to consumers. Considering PlayStation has a marketing deal in place, it benefits more than any other platform when the military shooter does well. Between that and PlayStation Plus continuing to fill out its offering, I’m upbeat on both software and add-on content sales in the coming quarters.
“We are actively pursuing various measures to further increase user engagement and re-accelerate the growth of our game business from both the hardware and software perspectives,” said Sony’s executives in prepared remarks. “We expect to see the results of these efforts contribute to sales and profit in earnest from the second half of this fiscal year and next fiscal year.”
Finally, there’s Sony’s announcement today on the timing and cost of PlayStation VR2. The follow-up to its original virtual reality headset back in 2016 will launch on February 22nd at the lofty price of US $549.99 for its base model. This reflects the same sort of revenue and profit considerations as before: It’s a major barrier to entry considering users also need to own a PlayStation 5, which will push up sales, however margins will likely be small considering how much it costs to make each unit. I’m cautious on its commercial prospects initially, and think it will appeal more over time once more people own its corresponding console.
That’s a wrap on Sony’s latest results. What were your reactions? Any surprises? Do you think Sony can hit its financial and hardware targets by March? Drop a note here or social media and check back soon for even more coverage of gaming, tech and media. Be well, and thanks for stopping by!
Note: Comparisons are year-over-year unless otherwise mentioned. Exchange rate is based on reported average conversion: US $1 to ¥138.2.
Sources: Activision Blizzard, Company Investor Relations Websites, Forbes (Image Credit), Michael Ng (Image Credit), PlayStation Blog.
