Tag: Sales

Familiar Franchises & New Hardware Lift U.S. Games Industry to a Record January

DomsPlaying

It’s the first U.S. monthly sales report of the new year, featuring formidable familiar faces topping the charts on the way to a record January for domestic games industry spending.

Call of Duty, Assassin’s Creed and Marvel’s Spider-Man among others drove a solid double-digit increase in content and software sales, while Nintendo Switch alongside PlayStation 5 combined to push hardware results to more than double the amount of this time last year. Even accessories increased over 70% year-on-year in January, bolstered by Sony’s most recent innovative controller.

It’s clear even with vaccine distribution thankfully happening around the globe, the video games industry is a primary beneficiary of continued shelter in place and quarantine orders. Even devoid of flagship releases charting on the software side, inventory constraints on the hardware front and following a major holiday season, January achieved a record.

This proves the strategy of many publishers in the current era providing ongoing content, seasonal events and cosmetic drops to engage an audience that wants to stick around longer than in prior generations. People love a reason to play the games they own, whether solo or with others, and this modern model certainly fulfills that.

Before I dig into the numbers and document my reactions, I want to again eternally thank the front-line, healthcare and retail workers for all the effort during an impossibly difficult time. I hope you are able to find some downtime and enjoy these games as a much-needed distraction.

United States Games Industry Sales (January 3rd, 2021 – January 30th, 2021):

Straight from NPD Group itself, plain and simple: January 2021 was a record January across its tracking history.

Consumer spend in the U.S. during the month reached over $4.71 billion, an increase of 42% since January 2019. Every single category of Content, Hardware and Accessories saw at least double-digit growth year-on-year.

Starting with the biggest contributor, Video Game Content sales exceeded $4.17 billion, comprising nearly 89% of monthly spend. This figure is up 36% when compared to early last year. Big results from Call of Duty: Black Ops Cold War, the resilience of Assassin’s Creed Valhalla plus a plethora of strong catalog titles from Nintendo highlight this category’s continued momentum.

As anticipated, Video Game Hardware saw the strongest movement: a staggering 144% gain over the same month in 2019, to upwards of $319 million. This time last year marked the last hurrah of the prior console generation, so naturally 2021 will bring about sizeable increases. I argue it’s slightly more impressive considering the public supply constraint issues admitted by both Sony and Microsoft.

As a knock-on effect of console launches plus Sony’s popular DualSense controller revision, Video Game Accessories bumped up 73% year-over-year to a spending amount of $222 million. A rising tide lifts all boats in this case, as displayed by all sub-categories here reaching all-time January highs last month.

Software is the leading category, which means it’s up first.

Call of Duty: Black Ops Cold War once again led the charge on the overall rankings, a spot its held each month since launching in November. It’s also the best-selling title over the past year. Not only that, the military shooter from Activision broke into the Top 20 best-selling games *of all time* in January, right at that #20 spot.

NPD Analyst Mat Piscatella called it “incredible” and said this particular statistic “made his jaw drop.”

2019’s Call of Duty: Modern Warfare is even in the Top 10. Activision Blizzard shared recently that both sales and engagement increased in the quarter ending December, namely how net bookings from the Call of Duty franchise rose over 50% in the quarter. Black Ops Cold War itself drove monthly active franchise users to increase around 70%. Lifetime spending across series history reached $27 billion in 2020, plus it entered this year with its largest user base to date.

In a similar success, Assassin’s Creed Valhalla ranked #2 on January 2021’s chart. It’s now the second fastest-selling game in the open world franchise from Ubisoft Entertainment, as measured by first three months U.S. dollar sales, behind only 2012’s Assassin’s Creed III.

As part of a quarterly report this week from Ubisoft where the company achieved record net bookings of over €1 billion ($1.21 billion), the French publisher noted how Valhalla generated record revenue within the long-running series.

Rounding out the Top 3 was PlayStation exclusive Marvel’s Spider-Man: Miles Morales. It’s also the 10th best-selling title of the last 12 months. Insomniac Games’ super hero action game achieved global unit shipments of 4.1 million since launch in November alongside the PlayStation 5, no doubt accelerated by Sony’s willingness to put out games simultaneously across both console generations. Smartly capitalizing on the 115 million PlayStation 4 consoles in the wild.

Another observation when perusing the list is again the sheer number of games from Nintendo even without digital sales reported, snagging 4 of the Top 9 spots. Animal Crossing: New Horizons returned to the Top 5 for the first time since July 2020, after surpassing the 30 million copies sold worldwide milestone. And Ring Fit Adventure among them at 7th overall, a further example of a clever bet from the Japanese company within the fitness sub-genre. Ubisoft’s Immortals Fenyx Rising, a late year gem, maintained a Top 15 finish after its Top 10 showing last month.

You might be wondering about the precipitous drop for CD Projekt’s Cyberpunk 2077 from second to 18th, barely making the Top 20. Or perhaps the notable absence of Hitman 3 after excellent reviews from IO Interactive’s latest? Well, it’s the same reason why Grand Theft Auto V and Red Dead Redemption 2 are no longer staples of the charts: No digital sales. While NPD Group has expanded its coverage of publishers sharing downloaded data, there are still a number that opt out.

Top-Selling Games of January 2021, U.S. (Physical & Digital Dollar Sales):

  1. Call of Duty: Black Ops Cold War
  2. Assassin’s Creed Valhalla
  3. Marvel’s Spider-Man: Miles Morales
  4. Madden NFL 21
  5. Animal Crossing: New Horizons*
  6. Mario Kart 8: Deluxe*
  7. Ring Fit Adventure
  8. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare
  9. Super Smash Bros. Ultimate*
  10. NBA 2K21*
  11. Super Mario 3D All-Stars*
  12. FIFA 21
  13. Immortals Fenyx Rising
  14. Mortal Kombat 11
  15. Just Dance 2021
  16. The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild*
  17. Minecraft: PlayStation 4 Edition
  18. Cyberpunk 2077*
  19. Super Mario Party*
  20. UFC 4

Top-Selling Games, 12 Months Ending January 2021, U.S. (Physical & Digital Dollar Sales):

  1. Call of Duty: Black Ops Cold War
  2. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare
  3. Animal Crossing: New Horizons*
  4. Madden NFL 21
  5. Assassin’s Creed Valhalla
  6. The Last of Us Part II
  7. Ghost of Tsushima
  8. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe*
  9. Super Mario 3D All-Stars*
  10. Marvel’s Spider-Man: Miles Morales

Flipping over to Hardware, both Nintendo Switch and PlayStation 5 lifted category sales to well more than double the amount recorded this time last year.

Switch was the leading platform in terms of unit sales during January. This marks the 26th consecutive month atop the rankings by this measure, a record in the history of tracking dating back to the 90s. Switch unit sales reached the best result for a January month since 2010, back when even grandparents purchased the Nintendo Wii at the height of its popularity.

Last week, Nintendo updated its financials and it’s staggering stuff. Switch is approaching 80 million units on market, 79.87 million to be exact, exceeding the almost 76 million of Nintendo 3DS as of December. This means Nintendo exceeded its initial full year target for Switch shipments with a quarter to spare. Shoot, the Switch Lite model alone is approaching the lifetime sales of its predecessor the Wii U, at 13.53 million compared to 13.56 million respectively.

In terms of dollar sales domestically during January 2021, PlayStation 5 once again led hardware. Same as it did last month, when I wrote about how it achieved the best result for PlayStation consoles thru each platform’s first December. Sony said last week that PlayStation 5 shipped 4.5 million units in its first quarter on sale, a number that’s a bit higher now taking into account January sales.

There’s not much in the report about Microsoft’s Xbox Series X|S, so it’s hard to know where it lies in relation to its competitors. On a global scale, friend of the site and Niko Partners Analyst Daniel Ahmad estimated the family at around 3.3 to 3.5 million globally to date. Just hard to know how it did in January here in the States.

Lastly, here’s even more records when moving onto the final segment of Accessories. Not only did the category itself jump over 70% to achieve a January historical high on dollar sales, each of its sub-segments did as well. Game pads, headsets and headphones plus steering wheels. January month records for all!

Among the products themselves, Sony’s PlayStation 5 DualSense Wireless Controller (seen above) topped everything to be the best-selling accessory of the month. Another one of Sony’s offerings, the Pulse 3D Wireless Headset, topped headset/headphones.

Taken as a whole, January echoed the ongoing story of games industry sales, reaching a record January month on the back of catalog titles plus new hardware shipments. Individual software franchises from Activision Blizzard and Ubisoft plus both hardware and accessories from Sony were the winners, though many more boasted great results to start 2021.

Highly recommend checking out Twitter accounts for NPD Group and Piscatella for even more general commentary and data within platform rankings. Definitely worth it if you’ve made it this far!

Thanks to all for reading. Let’s regroup in February for more sales talk. Be safe.

*Digital Sales Not Included

Sources: Activision Blizzard, Nintendo, NPD Group, Ubisoft.

-Dom

Call of Duty & Nintendo Top a Record Year for U.S. Game Sales in 2020

DomsPlaying2 Comments

Alright, I might have lied. Can’t get rid of 2020 just yet.

That’s because industry tracking firm The NPD Group released its final batch of statistics for the U.S. market last year, and it’s a monumental one. Between the continued dominance of Nintendo, steadfastness of Activision’s multi-tiered Call of Duty franchise and the start of a new console generation, it turned out to be a record one for the domestic video games industry.

This past week’s release covered the highly-coveted holiday month of December, plus a report on full year figures. We’ll start with December then move into the broader 2020 as a whole, pulling back for context on a mostly forgettable year except for when it comes to gaming. I’ll add commentary and context in various spots.

A couple things to note. All of these statistics are solely for the U.S. market, and include those publishers that participate in NPD’s tracking. In particular, certain publishers exclude digital sales when it comes to software charts (Why? Well, that’s for another day.) There are three sub-categories, each of which has its own reporting: Content (Software, Add-On etc), Hardware and Accessories. We’ll go through them all, with links and sources at the end.

Bring on the numbers.

United States Games Industry Sales (November 29th, 2020 to January 2nd, 2021):

Overall, industry spending in December within the States reached a record high for a December month. Upwards of $7.7 billion, which is an increase of 25% since this time last year.

Driven by Nintendo Switch demand plus the first full month on market for PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S, spending on Hardware rose 38% to $1.35 billion. This is the best December for the sub-category since 2013, the start of the PlayStation 4 and Xbox One generation, which totaled $1.37 billion.

This slight decline in early generation hardware contribution stems from supply constraints rather than lack of demand, naturally. When talking about Xbox Series X|S in particular, though I imagine it also applies to PlayStation 5, NPD Analyst Mat Piscatella said they “quickly sold every unit made. Just not enough stock to keep up with demand.”

Switch was the top-seller as measured by both units and dollars. This marks the 25th consecutive month where it’s led on unit sales, a staggering record for Nintendo. As I’ll write in a bit, this holiday push led its annual sales to a near record level. The manufacturer hasn’t shared anything publicly on specifics, I’d love to know unit sales to gauge how it compares historically.

In terms of the new generation, NPD didn’t share much in the way of specifics on December numbers alone. Rather, I’ll comment on annual hardware results a bit later, which really covers both November and December in aggregate.

Industry sales of software and add-ons within the Content segment reached $5.8 billion, up from $4.7 billion in December 2019. This impressive growth was driven by top-selling franchises likes Call of Duty, Animal Crossing, Madden and Assassin’s Creed plus a plethora of Nintendo-published titles, which accounted for half of the Top 20 list!

Call of Duty: Black Ops Cold War continued the lead from its debut month of November, driving another year of commercial success as well. In an incredible run, Activision’s first-person military shooter has led every single December during the past decade except for one: Super Smash Bros. Ultimate in 2018.

Even during a shaky launch, Cyberpunk 2077 sold well as pent-up anticipation drove significant demand. The futuristic, open world RPG landed at #2 on the overall chart. And CD Projekt Red doesn’t even provide the digital share. I’m not sure digital would cause it to overtake the staggering levels of Call of Duty, though I’d surely love to know.

Ubisoft produced two games in the overall Top 10 during December. At third place is the consistent Assassin’s Creed Valhalla, which the publisher previously said was the best launch ever in the franchise. Then, open world action-adventure game Immortals Fenyx Rising kicked off at #9. As a debut for new IP during the busiest of months, this is a notable start (for a game I really enjoyed).

Lastly on the software side, just look at how many Nintendo Switch games are on the Top 20. Beyond Animal Crossing, like darn every Mario game on the platform is there plus Smash Bros., Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity and even Ring Fit Adventure sneaking in at #19. And that’s without even considering digital sales for any of them, a significant portion of the market by now. Clearly reveals just how high Nintendo’s attach rate is when people snag a new device. Which they didn’t plenty of this holiday season.

Before moving to the software chart itself, it’s briefly worth noting the final category of Accessories. This segment rose 15% year-on-year in December to $546 million. Driven by Gamepad spending, as Sony’s brand new DualSense Wireless Controller topped the monthly list.

Top-Selling Games of December 2020, U.S. (Physical & Digital Dollar Sales):

  1. Call of Duty: Black Ops Cold War
  2. Cyberpunk 2077*
  3. Assassin’s Creed Valhalla
  4. Marvel’s Spider-Man: Miles Morales
  5. Madden NFL 21
  6. Animal Crossing: New Horizons*
  7. Mario Kart 8: Deluxe*
  8. NBA 2K21*
  9. Immortals Fenyx Rising
  10. Super Mario 3D All-Stars*
  11. Super Smash Bros. Ultimate*
  12. Just Dance 2021
  13. Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity*
  14. FIFA 21
  15. New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe*
  16. Super Mario Odyssey*
  17. The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild*
  18. Super Mario Party*
  19. Ring Fit Adventure
  20. Mortal Kombat 11

United States Games Industry Sales (2020):

Shifting into annual figures for the U.S., market, we’ll see similar trends within all three sales sub-categories especially at the top-end. Consumer spending across the games industry eclipsed a new yearly high during 2020, rising 27% to a whopping $56.9 billion. Driven mostly by the Content category, which accounted for 86% of the total.

Hardware achieved its best result since 2011, back when it was $5.6 billion. During 2020, this category jumped 35% year-over-year to $5.3 billion. Major contributors being Switch and transitioning generations, of course. Even if production limits cause the new boxes to under-perform a bit.

Nintendo Switch topped each monthly chart during 2020, and thus it was the best-selling piece of hardware on the year. Not only that, the hybrid console’s annual dollar result was the second best ever behind only Wii in 2008.

Flipping over to the fancy new generation, PlayStation 5 came in second during 2020 on dollar sales. Sony’s latest big (hah, literally) platform even achieved a dollar amount record for PlayStation hardware through each console’s first December. Separately, PlayStation 4 led the year on units sold. PlayStation 5’s dollar lead is attributed to a higher average selling price while its predecessor relied on discounts and higher inventory to clear boxes from retailers.

Call of Duty once again dominated the Software category, marking the 12th year in a row that a game in the franchise led the annual overall rankings. And not only that, the series occupied the top two spots! This year’s Call of Duty: Black Ops at numero uno then last year’s stellar Call of Duty: Modern Warfare at #2.

I’d have to look back over the entirety of tracked history since the start of Activision’s best-selling series in 2003. But I believe this is the first time since then that two titles in the same franchise led the combined chart. It’s a testament to the quality of Modern Warfare, its Warzone battle royale mode, continued free content updates and efforts toward cross-platform/cross-progression functionality that all keep players attracted to the ecosystem.

In a year full of notable milestones, Animal Crossing: New Horizons recorded yet another. It ranked #3 on the overall list. Its retail dollar sales, sans digital, were the highest for any game published by Nintendo since Wii Fit Plus in 2010. And we all remember how everyone and their grandmother bought the fitness board back then. (Likely even still collecting dust at a relative’s place, like ours.) I can’t wait to hear from Nintendo early next month on its global unit sales through year-end.

On a related note, the sheer number of exclusives on the 2020 sales list is wild. Both Nintendo and PlayStation platforms each boasted three games in the Top 10. Sony’s The Last of Us Part II ended at #6. Within Sony-published titles, it’s now behind only Marvel’s Spider-Man and God of War from 2018 measured by lifetime dollar sales. Ghost of Tsushima and Final Fantasy 7: Remake also landed in the Top 10. All of these prove the continued relevance of console exclusives, enticing players to spend on that platform.

There’s also certain titles noticeably missing to keen observers. No more Grand Theft Auto V. Farewell Red Dead Redemption 2. As I’ve discussed before, this is less a byproduct of slowing sales and more the way that publisher Take-Two now participates in NPD’s data gathering. “Take-Two remains a data sharing member of the Digital Leader Panel,” said Piscatella in a tweet reply. “However its digital sales are excluded from the published best-selling title charts.”

While not as major a contributor to overall results, Accessories generated $2.6 billion in spending during 2020. This is up 21% since 2019. On the year, Gamepad spend achieved a new spend record. Similar to December, the DualSense Wireless Controller for PlayStation 5 was the best-selling piece on units and dollar amount. Headset/Headphone actually surpassed its all-time spending high in 2020, with Turtle Beach’s Ear Force Recon 70 leading the charge. I hear ya!

Top-Selling Games of 2020, U.S. (Physical & Digital Dollar Sales):

  1. Call of Duty: Black Ops Cold War
  2. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare
  3. Animal Crossing: New Horizons*
  4. Madden NFL 21
  5. Assassin’s Creed Valhalla
  6. The Last of Us: Part II
  7. Ghost of Tsushima
  8. Mario Kart 8: Deluxe*
  9. Super Mario 3D All-Stars*
  10. Final Fantasy 7: Remake
  11. Marvel’s Avengers
  12. Marvel’s Spider-Man: Miles Morales
  13. NBA 2K21*
  14. Super Smash Bros. Ultimate*
  15. FIFA 21
  16. Mortal Kombat 11
  17. Dragon Ball Z: Kakarot
  18. MLB: The Show 20
  19. Cyberpunk 2077*
  20. Tony Hawk’s Pro Skater 1+2

Whew. That’s a whole lot to digest. Typical 2020, am I right.

It’s an easy conclusion to draw, yet I’ll do it anyway: It was an incredible year for gaming, with broad critical success echoed by commercial performance.

Switch is starting to trend like no one could have predicted, both in terms of hardware sales and the ridiculous number of software products charting month-in, month-out. Call of Duty is going nowhere, the hard work of the development teams behind the annual series rewarded for their consistent output. Animal Crossing became the year’s biggest surprise, launching in March during a time of much-needed distraction. Sony exclusives proved that quality results in mass adoption. Microsoft sold out of stock during the holiday months, even if supply can’t possibly keep up with demand.

I’ll have a piece soon on my 2021 predictions, yet I find it hard to determine right now if it will be a repeat. Depends on a lot of factors, some unknown. But what I do know is that 2020 set a high standard, despite the most tragic of scenarios.

Hat tip to NPD Games and Piscatella for the various stats plus the chart visual. Totally worth giving both a follow to read more there on individual platform details and other tidbits.

Thanks for checking out the last NPD thread for 2020. Be safe!

*Digital Sales Not Included

Sources: Nintendo, NPD Group, Ubisoft.

-Dom

CD Projekt Didn’t Have To Rush Cyberpunk To Meet Fiscal Demands, But Did Anyway

DomsPlaying

CD Projekt Group’s fiscal year ends in December.

Cyberpunk 2077 happened to be delayed three times then released in December.

Coincidence? Unfortunately, no.

Though it didn’t have to be this way, with a now historic launch debacle that began with complaints of rampant issues especially in PlayStation 4 and Xbox One versions then accelerated to various online stores and retailers offering full refunds plus, the cherry on top, PlayStation pulling it from its digital store in an unprecedented move within the games industry.

To understand why the company would have been fine, even benefited from, pushing out the launch of its new IP and latest flagship game past its fiscal year end, we have to look back at its general timeline and financial standing leading up to now. Plus, consider the reports brought forth by media like Bloomberg and others on difficult labor conditions and “crunch culture.”

Essentially: CD Projekt could have easily weathered a Cyberpunk 2077 release date in first quarter of 2021 financially, even if that coveted pre-order revenue smoothed out over time. The company boasted early on that pre-orders alone exceeded 8 million copies. The question becomes how many of those are being refunded or returned. And how many people will refuse to purchase it because of the company’s approach during a shaky launch.

My belief is that executives absolutely should have moved the date again to at least Q1, primarily to allow more time for developers to polish and ensure that previous generation versions were ready to go. The current debacle alone is proof that no flashy marketing push or early financial benefit is worth the dangerous publicity and loss of goodwill caused by a botched launch.

Until recently, Polish developer and publisher CD Projekt Red (the core games business of CD Projekt Group) was a one franchise studio with The Witcher fantasy games. The enormous success of 2015’s The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt and its subsequent support from the studio cemented it as one of the world’s preeminent action role-playing designers, and set the stage for exceedingly high expectations going into its next project.

In the time between then and present day, CD Projekt established itself as one of the largest and most financially successful publishers across all of Europe. It’s achieved at or above $100 million in sales each year since 2015, at times much more than that. At one point back in May, it even surpassed Ubisoft Entertainment as the region’s largest video game company by market valuation at over $9 billion in capitalization.

So, what happened?

The current debacle alone is proof that no flashy marketing push or early financial benefit is worth the dangerous publicity and loss of goodwill caused by a botched launch.

CD Projekt Red transitioned to a two-franchise studio as part of its mid-term strategy starting in 2016 when it kicked off pre-production on Cyberpunk 2077, a project that was actually announced a full generation ago way back in 2012. As its development continued and the company began to show the futuristic, first-person role-playing experience both privately and publicly, culminating with an appearance from Keanu Reeves, its legend grew to where it became one of the most anticipated games of the decade if not ever.

During this same time, the team continued support of the 28-million unit seller The Witcher 3 with two expansions in late 2015 and mid-2016, the introduction of a standalone version of its strategy card game GWENT, plus a Nintendo Switch version as recently as last year. While development costs along with marketing spend certainly ramped for Cyberpunk 2077 into this year, sales of these products bolstered its financial well-being throughout as its dedicated fan base showed support.

CD Projekt Major Product Launches:

  • The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt: FY15 Q2
  • Hearts of Stone: FY15 Q4
  • Blood & Wine: FY16 Q2
  • GWENT: FY18 Q4
  • The Witcher 3 Switch: FY19 Q4
  • Cyberpunk 2077: FY20 Q4

Overall, CD Projekt Group generated $140 million and just under $100 million in annual revenue during 2019 and 2018, respectively. Operating income hit nearly $50 million last year, over $30 million the year prior. That’s *growth* right smack between major titles, trending upward into a product launch even prior to the deluge of pre-orders. Does this happen without a level of trust built up over years of ongoing support and quality craftsmanship? Sure, The Witcher 3 had its issues at launch in 2015. But the whole reason CD Projekt garnered so much trust is its consumer-facing practices of constant improvement, support and attention to its audience.

At least, that’s how it used to be.

It’s clear to see when checking the charts in conjunction with its timeline of events. Even before pre-order dollars accumulated in recent quarters, CD Projekt had a stable revenue stream from the work its developers had already done and the goodwill it built with a sizeable base. Expenses will rise into a major, AAA release especially in the final push. It’s not always reinforced financially by work the team had already done on prior projects, like with the beloved Witcher series.

Subsequently, running parallel to its game development business was its GOG.com digital distribution platform. It sells a variety of PC games, and has become a notable supplement to the group’s structure in the lead-up to a big launch from its sister subsidiary. GOG.com has proven a reliable venture, contributing upwards of 40% to total sales at times over the past couple years.

While it seems at face value that CD Projekt goes as its major game franchises do, its distribution business offers a separate revenue stream even if some of that success is inevitably tied to its internally-published products. Producing games isn’t the sole driver of its direction, and this sort of supplementary source could have propped up the company into next fiscal year.

Now of course, another pressure point when talking about the timing of launches is investor sentiment. From all indicators, shareholders bought into the downright outrageous hype cycle of Cyberpunk 2077, which initially had a launch date of April 2020 (Can you imagine?). It was pushed to September. Then November. And after that, to December. A convenient timing right before its financial calendar turned to 2021.

Notably after the first delay, CD Projekt’s share price rose. And kept going, reaching a peak around September. After a brief dip in November during the last delay announcement, it bounced right up again showing the ever-present appetite of investors for that juicy Cyberpunk 2077 profit. Would it have declined again if it was delayed to 1st quarter next year? Sure. But I doubt it would have experienced the precipitous drop since launch day, December 10th, which has eliminated over $2 billion in market value in just over a week.

The stock is now trading below where it started the year. And it was all avoidable.

My hope is there’s a lesson here: a general change towards optimal quality over financial gain, transparency over secrecy, giving people time to complete quality work rather than setting a date to meet a deadline that wasn’t realistic in the first place.

Briefly on the development side, it’s now obvious even December ended up being an unrealistic deadline based on the results and reporting around its challenging launch timeline. In addition to media reports of long hours and tough work as far back as over a year ago, another Bloomberg story today shares that management held a question and answer session on Thursday with employees. Luckily, they were able to vocalize their frustrations and press executives on various topics related to Cyberpunk 2077’s development cycle.

A “developer asked whether CD Projekt’s directors felt it was hypocritical to make a game about corporate exploitation while expecting that their employees work overtime,” the story’s author Jason Schreier writes, revealing a frustration bubbling up within the very people who are now tasked with fixing the game.

(Word is that all employees will be receiving their intended bonuses regardless of where critical reception ends up. Which is how it should be. People should be compensated commensurate with their labor. I won’t overly celebrate management paying their workers acceptable wages.)

The elephant in the room, of course, is the impact of a global pandemic. One which hit right during the final part of the project’s timeline. The coronavirus effect, which is difficult to quantify and impossible to ignore. CD Projekt employs a workforce of over 1,100 people, the majority of which transitioned to remote working for 2020 according to its mid-year filing. As if crunching for a major product launch and dealing with an impractical deadline wasn’t enough, these folks also had to adjust to a new working situation and team dynamics outside of the office.

What now, then?

Well, it’s time to rebuild. And more importantly, regain trust. I firmly believe that the loss of goodwill and faith in the management team wasn’t worth the short-term financial boon of launching right before the 2020 financial calendar ended. What a quarterly table or chart doesn’t show is the longer term effect of losing credibility as an executive team, or having a set of employees still working to the bone on a game that should have been delayed to a more reasonable schedule.

Management needs to be held accountable, by all parties: employees, media and consumers alike. They should have been more open to feedback from their teams ahead of time, not after the fact. I doubt CD Projekt will ever reveal how many of the millions upon millions of copies sold were actually refunded, but revenue numbers won’t lie when that time comes.

This is the type of industry-shaking event that doesn’t happen often. My hope is there’s a lesson here: a general change towards optimal quality over financial gain, transparency over secrecy, giving people time to complete quality work rather than setting a date to meet a deadline that wasn’t realistic in the first place.

CD Projekt can bounce back from the launch of Cyberpunk 2077. In three to six months, the game could very well be in solid shape and people will be more confident in management’s decision-making. Its employees may return to more stable hours and have an improved feedback loop with higher-ups. Over the next couple years, it could (and likely will) go on to sell tens of millions of copies and people will forgive management for their hasty decisions back in 2020.

But it didn’t have to be this way from the start.

Sources: Bloomberg, CD Projekt Investor Relations, Sony Interactive Entertainment.

-Dom

Marvel’s Avengers & Nintendo Assemble at the Top of September’s U.S. Game Sales Charts

DomsPlaying2 Comments

It’s officially sales season in gaming, and is proving to be busy one at that.

September ushered a great start domestically for a polarizing game from Square Enix, while overall consumer spend achieved yet another double-digit increase even as the console cycle comes to a close. Plus, there were tons of debuts and new-ish games to discuss on the software side while Nintendo secured another dominant win within the hardware category.

Industry tracking firm The NPD Group has, hm.. assembled its latest monthly sales statistics for the U.S. games market. Stand-outs during September included Marvel’s Avenger’s achieving the top spot on the software chart, sports games occupying 3 of the Top 5 spots including a record performance from a familiar franchise, Crusader Kings III debuting within the Top 7 and Nintendo Switch besting hardware as it’s done every month since December 2018.

Total spending across the categories of Video Game Content, Video Game Hardware and Video Game Accessories reached a whopping $4.3 billion in the domestic market during September 2020. An increase of 10% since this time last year. While it’s not as robust as the growth seen in the spring and summer months, it’s still yet another double-digit rate which has been the case each month since March. Of course coinciding with the tragic rise of the pandemic, which has forced people to remain home for months.

“Mobile, hardware and accessories were among the largest growth segments,” said NPD Group Analyst Mat Piscatella. In terms of hardware, “growth in sales of Nintendo Switch offset declines on other console platforms.”

Expanding to the year-to-date figures, broad consumer spend in the games industry reached $33.7 billion through September. This is up 21% since last year. Continued stay-at-home guidelines and quarantine mandates combined with a variety of brand new titles from major publishers, namely licensed releases and sports titles, contributed to impressive growth this late in the console generation.

Let’s get more into the numbers and commentary.

United States Games Industry Sales (August 30th to October 3rd):

As mentioned before, September brought healthy gains overall and across all three major categories in the U.S. tracked by The NPD Group. The above chart shows monthly and year-to-date metrics.

The largest category of Content (i.e. game sales and in-game purchases) reached $3.84 billion in September and $29.8 billion for the year as a whole, increases of 8% and 21% respectively. Mainly driven by titles from some of the most popular companies in the business: Square Enix, Nintendo, Activision Blizzard and Electronic Arts.

Diving into the data, Marvel’s Avengers fought its way to the top spot on the total software chart which I’ll list out shortly.

The hero brawler slash live service game made by Crystal Dynamics received mixed critical reception at release in early September, yet brand power goes a long way when it comes to licensed titles. Not only was Square Enix’s latest the top-selling game overall last month, it held the top spot on both PlayStation 4 and Xbox One individual charts plus immediately became the 7th best-selling title of the year so far.

Its launch month dollar sales were quite impressive, reaching the second best in history for a super hero game behind only the record-setting 2018 title Marvel’s Spider-Man. While early success doesn’t guarantee momentum over time, which is key for an ongoing game like Marvel’s Avengers with regular characters and content updates, a solid start establishes a baseline audience that may come back during those intervals. We also haven’t heard yet from Square Enix on global sales, which I predicted would be strong in its launch window. Essentially, only the first chapter of its story has been told.

It wouldn’t be a software chart without a major Nintendo launch, and September was no exception. Super Mario 3D All-Stars, the collection of three classic games in the beloved series, jumped to the 2nd spot overall. Spanning 2020 as a whole, it enters the year-to-date chart at the 10th spot.

For context, Super Mario 3D All-Stars is also the 2nd best retail launch for any game in the U.S. during 2020 that isn’t called Animal Crossing: New Horizons, which is more an anomaly at this point with its incredible sales. Widening the time frame, it’s the 6th best start for any game published by Nintendo in tracking history, as measured by retail dollar sales. (Note that Nintendo doesn’t share digital in this context, so this particular statistic only encompasses physical sales.)

Madden NFL 21 rounds out the Top 3, scoring a second consecutive month of solid momentum after leading the chart in August. Publisher Electronic Arts hasn’t shared specifics in terms of units or engagement for the football game, though did say in a press release that this year’s Madden recorded 20% higher unit sell-thru to customers than its predecessor during launch week.

“After the most successful year in franchise history, fans are now playing more Madden than ever before,” said Executive Producer Seann Graddy. Personally, I’d prefer to hear exactly how many people are playing, unfortunately that’s wishful thinking for a major sports title these days other than maybe Take-Two and its 2K franchises.

Speaking of, September welcomed the resurgence of Tony Hawk with the release of Tony Hawk’s Pro Skater 1+2, a rebuilding of the first two games in Activision’s long-running skateboarding series. The remake carved its way to the 4th spot overall in the most impressive of ways: it set a series record for launch month dollar sales, outpacing the prior leader in 2004’s Tony Hawk’s Underground 2. Talk about grinding out the win.

Quickly reporting on the remainder of notable new games, Take-Two’s annual basketball release NBA 2K21 scored the 5th spot. This is noticeably lower than last year’s title, which led September 2019’s rankings. I’d say that’s mainly due to the publisher no longer sharing digital share for any of its products, which is even more obvious with how both Grand Theft Auto V and Red Dead Redemption 2 are no longer mainstays each month.

Since NPD Group doesn’t publicly state units or dollars, it’s difficult to determine an early performance comparison across NBA 2K history. Take-Two Interactive reports second quarter results on November 5th, and executives should share global unit sales at that time.

In what’s likely the surprise of the monthly chart, Crusader Kings III landed at #7. The strategy game from Paradox Interactive achieved the best launch month start in series history from both a ranking and dollar sales standpoint. Two October games that technically released right before the cut-off landed on the chart: Star Wars: Squadrons at #9 then Crash Bandicoot 4: It’s About Time at #11. More to come next month on these when they have more days on market.

Lastly, Call of Duty: Modern Warfare maintains its position as the year’s top-seller as it enters into its sixth and likely final season of content before Call of Duty: Black Ops Cold War hits stores on November 13th. I expect the latter of these to lead holiday charts. Yes, even with all the major games around the new console launches especially the hotly-anticipated Cyberpunk 2077 from CD Projekt Red, which will serve as stiff competition.

Check out the software charts below for September 2020 and the year so far, then I’ll switch over to hardware and accessories.

Top-Selling Games of September 2020, U.S. (Physical & Digital Dollar Sales):

  1. Marvel’s Avengers
  2. Super Mario 3D All-Stars*
  3. Madden NFL 21
  4. Tony Hawk’s Pro Skater 1+2
  5. NBA 2K21*
  6. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare
  7. Crusader Kings III
  8. Animal Crossing: New Horizons*
  9. Star Wars: Squadrons
  10. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe*
  11. Crash Bandicoot 4: It’s About Time
  12. Ghost of Tsushima
  13. Ring Fit Adventure
  14. Super Smash Bros. Ultimate*
  15. UFC 4
  16. New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe*
  17. The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild*
  18. Super Mario Odyssey*
  19. Mortal Kombat 11
  20. Super Mario Party*

Top-Selling Games of 2020 So Far, U.S. (Physical & Digital Dollar Sales):

  1. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare
  2. Animal Crossing: New Horizons*
  3. The Last of Us: Part 2
  4. Madden NFL 21
  5. Ghost of Tsushima
  6. Final Fantasy 7: Remake
  7. Marvel’s Avengers
  8. Dragon Ball Z: Kakarot
  9. MLB: The Show 20
  10. Super Mario 3D All-Stars*

Moving to the Video Game Hardware category, spending in September amounted to $277 million which is up 15% year-on-year. Nintendo Switch was the only console experiencing gains. Over 2020 so far, hardware spend rose 22% to $2.3 billion in total. In the least surprising stat this past month, Switch was again the best-selling console by both number sold and dollars generated. It nearly broke a September record as per comments from Piscatella, and retains its position atop the hardware list for the year as well.

This is a spot Nintendo’s hybrid has held since holiday season nearly two years ago. And I’m on record saying that even with the release of both Xbox Series X|S and PlayStation 5 upcoming in November, Nintendo will once again attain the top spot for each month during the 4th quarter. Animal Crossing: New Horizons is still the game to get, plus upcoming releases like Pikmin 3 Deluxe (October 30th) and Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity (November 20th) mean there’s still room for growth in the domestic market for Switch if you can believe it. Guaranteed to be a staple of holiday product lists.

The final category of Video Accessories is actually among the most significant of results last month. Accessory spend reached a record September amount, hitting $191 million or a 30% gain since this time last year. Over 2020 to date, this category has accumulated an all-time high result of $1.6 billion, an increase of 26% year-over-year. Within, Gamepad and Headset/Headphones sub-categories also hit historical highs for both a September monthly result and year-to-date through this same month driven by the Xbox Elite Series 2 Wireless Controller.

And that’s all for September’s numbers and positions. The late summer to early fall here in the States sees continued lock-downs in many areas as coronavirus tragically isn’t going away any time soon. The games industry continues to be a benefactor of people abiding by the rules, making the most of home entertainment and spending time interacting via online games as opposed to in-person gatherings.

For way more detail on The NPD Group release itself, head over to their Twitter page or the in-depth thread from Piscatella as well.

Until next time, stay safe and thanks for stopping by!

*Digital Sales Not Included

Sources: Electronic Arts, Nintendo, NPD Group, Square Enix, Take-Two Interactive.

-Dom

Madden Wins & Nintendo Sets a Record in August Games Industry Sales Report

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The push toward the goal line of 2020 is now officially underway, as signaled by the annual release of a new Madden game.

And this year’s proves to be another big seller, pushing games industry growth up double-digits here in the States.

During August 2020, Electronic Arts’ Madden NFL 21 and Nintendo’s Switch console attracted the most dollar sales in their respective categories domestically, with the former increasing the franchise streak of commercial success and the latter setting a new August month record. This is all according to the latest monthly report from tracking firm The NPD Group.

Overall, stay-at-home restrictions and everyone trying to get the most out of the relaxing days before school starts drove consumer spending across the games industry in August to $3.3 billion. That’s up 37% since this same time period last year. (Get used to that number.)

“Digital content on console, mobile and subscription were among largest growth segments,” said my friend and NPD Analyst Mat Piscatella.

Expanding to year-to-date spend, this is up 23% across 2020 so far to a total sum of $29.4 billion. Every category jumped more than 20% in August. The three main ones now being Video Game Hardware, Video Game Content and Video Game Accessories as I detailed last month.

As I’ll describe shortly, 2020 continues to be a remarkable year when it comes to gaming sales across multiple segments even amidst the ongoing difficulties of coronavirus. It’s one of the main viable forms of experiencing new entertainment at home, especially as film studios continue to push major motion pictures to theaters. Gaming is excellent at bringing people together remotely, and almost all companies involved are benefactors whether it’s those producing free-to-play releases like Fall Guys and Among Us or the traditional full-price model as we’ll see here.

On to the numbers.

United States Games Industry Sales (August 2nd to August 29th):

As displayed in the above chart compiled by The NPD Group, Video Game Content i.e. software and in-game purchases sales rose 37% (there it is again) in August 2020, reaching $2.9 billion. For the year as a whole thru last month, content category spend hit $25.9 billion which is up 22%.

The major highlight during August was Madden NFL 21, the best-selling title last month. This marked the 21st straight year that a game in the Electronic Arts-published football franchise has led the overall chart during its first month. It’s a streak that provides context for just how consistent the annualized series is commercially.

Launch month sales doubled when compared to Madden NFL 20, making it instantly the sixth best-selling game of 2020 to date. Surpassing games with months of sales like Dragon Ball Z: Kakarot and MLB: The Show 20. The continued early success here reiterates the Madden NFL brand as the top-selling sports franchise in the multiple decade history of tracking.

Another Electronic Arts game reached second place on the August list, that being UFC 4. The mixed martial arts simulator set a launch sales record for UFC games produced by EA, dating back to 2014. The game ranked within the Top 3 of the individual charts for both Xbox One and PlayStation 4 platform results.

The other ongoing stories were Call of Duty: Modern Warfare rounding out the Top 3 while games published by Nintendo occupied six spots within the Top 11. Animal Crossing: New Horizons showed steady momentum, landing it at #5 while fitness game Ring Fit Adventure finished right behind it.

The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild reached an impressive milestone in August, as it’s now the 10th best-selling game on a Nintendo platform of all time domestically. It was a launch title for Nintendo Switch back in March 2017, since which time it’s been in the Top 7 on that platform’s list of software sellers every single month.

Another note in perusing the lists is the notable scarcity of games from publisher Take-Two Interactive, owner of Rockstar Games and 2K Games. Its golf game PGA Tour 2K21 landed at #14 on the main chart, a respectable yet pedestrian result, and its sports titles randomly made the single platform lists. Though staples like Grand Theft Auto V and Red Dead Redemption 2 are nowhere to be found. My understanding is this stems from a change in how the company is reporting its downloadable portion, as its games are now flagged similar to Nintendo’s without digital sales.

I expect its flagship basketball title NBA 2K21, released back on September 4th, to perform very well during September’s report. However I can’t shake the odd feeling of not seeing Rockstar on any of the lists, when I know its games are still attracting players and dollars.

Anyways, full charts for August and year-to-date below.

Top-Selling Games of August 2020, U.S. (Physical & Digital Dollar Sales):

  1. Madden NFL 21
  2. UFC 4
  3. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare
  4. Ghost of Tsushima
  5. Animal Crossing: New Horizons*
  6. Ring Fit Adventure
  7. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe*
  8. Super Smash Bros. Ultimate*
  9. Paper Mario: The Origami King*
  10. Mortal Kombat 11
  11. The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild*
  12. The Last of Us: Part 2
  13. Minecraft: PS4 Edition
  14. PGA Tour 2K21*
  15. New Super Mario Bros. Deluxe*
  16. Super Mario Party*
  17. Tom Clancy’s Rainbow Six Siege
  18. Super Mario Odyssey*
  19. Final Fantasy 7: Remake
  20. Luigi’s Mansion 3*

Top-Selling Games of 2020 So Far, U.S. (Physical & Digital Dollar Sales):

  1. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare
  2. Animal Crossing: New Horizons*
  3. The Last of Us: Part 2
  4. Final Fantasy 7: Remake
  5. Ghost of Tsushima
  6. Madden NFL 21
  7. Dragon Ball Z: Kakarot
  8. MLB: The Show 20
  9. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe*
  10. Mortal Kombat 11

Within the Video Game Hardware category, consumer spending totaled $229 million last month which was growth of 37% (a ha! we meet again) when compared to August 2019. For year-to-date figures, spending on consoles was up 23% to $2 billion flat.

While Nintendo Switch continued its dominance as the best-selling hardware, a spot it’s held each monthly report since late 2018, August proved an especially exceptional result. The hybrid platform set a new August month record for dollar sales, outpacing that of the Nintendo Wii back in August 2008. Also, unit sales doubled since this time last year. Considering its recent momentum and ongoing demand, this shows what can happen when the supply side and inventories catch up to consumer interest.

Going back three years ago, right before Switch hit the market, I was on record as one of the most bullish on its prospects. I loved the hardware design and thought that a combination of that ingenuity and Nintendo’s software prowess, Switch would be one of the firm’s most successful consoles ever. But I stopped short of predicting it would beat the Wii, a global phenomenon in the years after its 2006 launch.

These days, I’m reconsidering that. Especially with word that the company is further ramping up production into the back half of this fiscal year and the speculation of another model next year, I’m now betting that Switch lifetime sales meet or exceed that of Wii globally.

Want another prediction that we’ll know sooner than that? Looking domestically according to these reports, I’m planting my flag that Nintendo will win the holiday months even with the start of next generation, mainly due to supply opening up for Nintendo’s box and limits on inventory for its competitors in the Xbox Series X|S and PlayStation 5.

Whew. Back to the report itself, Video Game Accessories also set an August record last month by jumping 42% to $166 million in dollar sales. Expanding to full year, sales within this category reached an all-time high through an August month at $1.4 billion, exhibiting growth of 26% year-over-year.

Sub-categories sales here for Gamepad, Headsets/Headphones and even Steering Wheels boasted August and year-to-date records too, though no growth or cash totals were provided. PlayStation 4 DualShock 4 wireless black model was top-selling accessory in August. Xbox’s Elite Series 2 game pad maintains its spot as the year’s top seller so far.

Moving into the back part of Q3 then holiday season is when these reports really ramp up, this year more than ever with Tony Hawk Pro Skater 1 + 2 releasing in early September. (Get it?)

Though really, the combination of coronavirus restrictions, Nintendo’s slate now being clear with Mario’s 35th anniversary games including Super Mario 3D All-Stars then Pikmin 3 plus of course new generation consoles starting in November as I write about before with Microsoft’s Xbox Series X|S announcements, this is the starting whistle of the more newsworthy months in industry tracking.

Highly recommend NPD Group’s post and NPD Analyst Mat Piscatella’s thread for a great summary and further details on the results and individual platform rankings.

Stay safe everyone. Thanks for hanging out!

*Digital Sales Not Included

Sources: Bloomberg, Electronic Arts, NPD Group.

-Dom

Microsoft Reveals Xbox Series S, Leaks Hint to Series X Price & Release Date

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Updated: September 9th.

It’s now around two months before next generation gaming consoles are set to release, and one of the manufacturers has finally moved publicly on price.

Well, sort of.

In the middle of the night here in the States, Microsoft formally unveiled its “smallest Xbox ever” in the Xbox Series S, the counterpart to its higher powered Xbox Series X platform. The leaner, more cost-friendly Series S will launch at $299 with a financing option at $25 per month via Xbox All Access.

Its existence has been the worst kept secret in the industry for a year or more, originating at the same time speculation began about Microsoft’s new generation approach featuring multiple, simultaneous console launches. Last night this intensified, mainly due to a post at Thurrott.com showing leaked promotional packaging for the Series S.

According to another leaked Series S promo posted by WalkingCat on Twitter, this time a full on video ad, Microsoft is certainly going for the segment of the audience that might want to upgrade or enter the Xbox ecosystem, doesn’t care about physical discs and refuses to break the bank in order to play the newest games.

Series S is an all-digital box, which means no disc drive, and it’s 60% smaller than the beefy Series X. While it has a quick-loading solid state hard drive (SSD), it’s only 512GB which is restrictive in terms of internal storage space. Especially for a console that only downloads or streams games. Its specs are of course reigned in compared to any next gen version so far, though targets comparable output in terms of performance. Supports high frame rates, 4K upscaling and more as you’ll see in the commercial.

Furthering the fervor, Windows Central dropped even more major news in that its sources say the powerful Xbox Series X will launch at $499 with a $35 per month financing option.

AND that both Xbox consoles will be out on Tuesday, November 10th.

(Edit: Microsoft has confirmed that at least Xbox Series S launches this day. I anticipate both will be at the same time.)

(Second Edit: Microsoft revealed that Xbox Series X will also release on this date, at $499.)

Whew. After months of snacking on crumbs, we now have a lot to digest. First, let’s talk timing.

This all sounds legitimate. Friend of the site Jez Corden and his team at Windows Central are reliable for most things Microsoft and this is consistent with the company’s own marketing of a November release. Plants it squarely before the holiday rush and right during the windows of big third party titles like Destiny 2: Beyond Light, Assassin’s Creed Valhalla and Cyberpunk 2077.

(The irony of a Bungie game that isn’t Halo being effectively a launch title for an Xbox console isn’t lost on me!)

And, this timing just might be before its rival Sony PlayStation 5 as well, which is rumored actually for later that week on Friday, November 13th.

If the simultaneous Xbox release happens to be November 10th, then it’s a few days after my prediction. I thought the console would hit on a Friday, though Microsoft is seemingly opting for a Tuesday strategy. Similar to its Xbox 360 debut in 2005. Really, the exact day of launch is less important in the grand scheme than is moving first and having it ready to go before Black Friday and holiday shopping begins in its major markets.

Still, what continues to stand out to me is a distinct lack of exclusive, first party launch games now that Halo: Infinite is delayed to next year. The timing tells me that Microsoft is leaning into those aforementioned third parties, updates from last generation software and its Xbox Game Pass service to entice people to upgrade. Perhaps when Microsoft officially reveals the date, it will also have a surprise announcement for a new launch game. (Not betting on it.)

There’s also the question of future-proofing, which is why this latest set of consoles try to target things like 8K resolution and 120 frames-per-second at the top end. These boxes need to be relevant years from now. Can the Series S accomplish this with its current specs? Probably not. Which is why we’ll likely see a mid-generational upgrade like we did last time around, so future-proofing isn’t as important as it once was.

Next up, that pricing!

The first word that came to mind when hearing these revelations is: Aggressive. Like, extremely so.

Earlier this year, I speculated that $499 would be the minimum price for Series X based on its specs and likely build cost. I’m on record saying I expected $349 for a cost-friendly Series S with the option to reduce based on its specs (which we never knew in advance, in my defense). Microsoft reaching or beating these, especially the $299 Series S point, clearly shows a strategy of making next gen affordable for as many people as possible even if the lower end specs aren’t dazzling.

These days for the $11.6 billion in annual revenue Xbox gaming division, it’s just as much about attracting buyers to Xbox Game Pass. The two-tiered console approach covers a significant part of the market now. Enthusiasts will always upgrade early, that’s the audience for Series X. It’s the more casual audience, those that are platform agnostic or even lapsed gamers that are most likely to bite on that juicy $299 price tag.

Another smart move from a marketing perspective is Microsoft starting with the price announcement of only its entry level version. Putting that in public mind-share on its own, rather than showing both at once. Taking this sort of staggered approach injects a sense of affordability in the market, saying to consumers that it really isn’t crazy expensive to move into the next generation of console gaming.

I fully expect to see at least a version of each console bundled with Xbox Live, Xbox Game Pass and even the streaming service Project xCloud, the last of which is an especially intriguing play for the all-digital Series S. An Xbox Series S bundled with an introductory subscription to Xbox Game Pass Ultimate could be the best bang for the buck early in the console cycle.

In terms of general sales predictions, I’m still cautiously upbeat on early prospects in November and all of the fourth quarter calendar year. For both console manufacturers, mind you. We still don’t know price or timing for Sony’s PlayStation 5, so I’m hesitant to go on record with figures or comparisons at this stage other than to say I’m expecting demand to be steady though unsure about production quantities.

Even so. With the confirmation of an all-digital version in the next gen Xbox family, Microsoft sales should shift towards that lower-margin model which means slightly lower overall revenue generation. I still fully expect early adopters to upgrade to the Series X. The question becomes how many of the people that might not have upgraded, or might have picked the PlayStation 5 Digital Edition, will now buy Series S? That will dictate sales even more than the hardcore players.

Of course it also comes down to production, which we know will be impacted by coronavirus and availability of parts. In 2013, Xbox One sold a million units in a day to be the biggest launch in Microsoft’s gaming history. And that was priced $100 more than its competitor. Between the two models this time, there’s potential for setting another record internally.

So, what now?

Microsoft ended its Twitter reveal saying that they will share more soon. Windows Central notes the likelihood of Xbox holding a press event in the near future, after which time I assume pre-orders will also go live for both versions. Expect this to be *very* soon, like within days now.

While overnight we saw our first glimpse of next generation pricing, plus received all-but-confirmed rumors of cost and timing for the Xbox suite of devices, we’re now waiting for that official confirmation.

Then, it’s Sony’s move. My “almost” final prediction for PlayStation 5 Standard Edition is $499 and Digital Edition is $399. Which would be great for that Series S entry point. When will we know? Well, right after Microsoft’s event seems like a sure thing.

I’d bet the house.

Stay tuned here or Twitter for more news, commentary and sales talk on next generation consoles plus everything in gaming. Thanks for reading!

All prices quoted in US Dollars. Sources: Microsoft, Thurott, WalkingCat on Twitter, Windows Central, Xbox Wire.

-Dom

Ghost of Tsushima & Nintendo Power July 2020 U.S. Games Industry Sales

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The results are in for another month, proving most of the games industry is still powering up and seemingly staying at home during what continues to be the most difficult of times. COVID-19 restrictions and major new releases from multiple publishers drove growth, which counteracted a slight dip in console sales during July.

U.S. video game sales tracking firm The NPD Group released its July 2020 domestic report this morning,. Overall movement is impressive from both a dollar sales and individual title standpoint, especially for new games from Sony and Nintendo plus catalog titles from 3rd party teams.

Let’s take a look at the trends and get some commentary going on monthly performance.

Note: NPD Group has adjusted its software tracking metrics, which means its three main categories are now as follows:

Video Game Hardware: Console and hardware sales.

Video Game Content: Previously dubbed Video Game Software. This now includes “total market Physical and Digital Full Game, DLC/MTX and Subscription consumer spending across Console, Cloud, Mobile, Portable, PC and VR platforms.”

Video Game Accessories: Self-explanatory, includes controllers, game pads, headphones and comparable gaming accoutrements.

United States Games Industry Sales (July 5th to August 1st):

Overall industry consumer spending jumped an impressive 32% in July compared to the same month last year, totaling $3.6 billion. When expanding to 2020 as a whole, total spend domestically is up 21% to $26 billion right now.

NPD Group Analyst, and online friend of mine, Mat Piscatella said this about overall performance in July: “Double-digit percentage spending gains in accessories, subscription, mobile and both digital full game as well as post launch spending on console and PC offset a slight decline in hardware.”

The largest contributor to last month’s results by far is Video Game Content, at $3.3 billion in dollar sales. This is an increase of 34% over July 2019. In particular the Digital segment within Content is expanding rapidly, showing growth of 41% year-on-year although no dollar amount or split was shared. I’d imagine physical is also showing resilience as we’ve seen with multiple earnings reports from big publishers around the world, though digital is certainly benefiting most from current conditions due to ease of access and retail closures.

As for individual software releases, PlayStation 4 exclusive Ghost of Tsushima solidified the number one spot on the overall chart. The latest action game from internal Sony studio Sucker Punch Productions, which I reviewed recently, is the developer’s fastest-selling to date, outpacing 2014’s inFAMOUS Second Son. Early momentum resulted in Ghost of Tsushima achieving the 4th best Sony-published launch in tracking history, immediately entering the 2020 to date chart as the 5th best-selling title. Sony shared that global unit sales hit 2.4 million within 3 days of release, consistent with my upbeat call on its commercial upside based on where the PS4 install base is at this point in the generation.

The other notable new release is Paper Mario: The Origami King, debuting at #3 on the combined chart plus numero uno on the Switch rankings. It set a new launch high for Nintendo’s Paper Mario franchise, beating the prior record-holder Super Paper Mario in 2007. Additionally, retail launch sales were more than double that of 2004’s Paper Mario: The Thousand Year Door. Its one of five Nintendo titles within the Top 10 in July, the next highest being the commercial breakout hit Animal Crossing: New Horizons which this quarter became the second top seller ever on Nintendo Switch at an absurd 22.4 million global unit sales as reported earlier this month.

Additional contributors to software growth include another PS4 hit The Last of Us: Part 2, which ranked #4 and has now achieved the 3rd highest lifetime sales ever for a game published by Sony behind Marvel’s Spider-Man and God of War both from 2018. Ring Fit Adventure, Nintendo’s fitness entry, continues to have legs due to high consumer demand and increased stock as it climbed to the 7th spot. Rounding out the Top 10 was a surprising one to me, Sword Art Online: Alicization Lycoris from Bandai Namco. It’s the best ever placement for a game in the series to date, since Sword Art Online: Fatal Bullet hit #14 in 2018. The game also achieved the 3rd spot on the Xbox One’s individual chart, behind only heavy hitters Call of Duty: Modern Warfare and Mortal Kombat 11.

Software and additional content really are carrying the industry with lockdowns still in place around the country, proving a smart way to pass the seemingly endless time. Below are the general charts.

Top-Selling Games of July 2020, U.S. (Physical & Digital Dollar Sales):

  1. Ghost of Tsushima
  2. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare
  3. Paper Mario: The Origami King*
  4. The Last of Us: Part 2
  5. Animal Crossing: New Horizons*
  6. Ring Fit Adventure
  7. Mortal Kombat 11
  8. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe*
  9. Super Smash Bros. Ultimate*
  10. Sword Art Online: Alicization Lycoris
  11. Minecraft: PS4 Edition
  12. The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild*
  13. Tom Clancy’s Rainbow Six: Siege
  14. New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe*
  15. MLB: The Show 20
  16. Star Wars Jedi: Fallen Order
  17. Need for Speed: Heat
  18. Marvel’s Spider-Man
  19. Assassin’s Creed: Odyssey
  20. Call of Duty: Black Ops 3

Top-Selling Games of 2020 So Far, U.S. (Physical & Digital Dollar Sales):

  1. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare
  2. Animal Crossing: New Horizons*
  3. The Last of Us: Part 2
  4. Final Fantasy 7 Remake
  5. Ghost of Tsushima [New]
  6. Dragon Ball Z: Kakarot
  7. MLB: The Show 20
  8. Resident Evil 3 Remake
  9. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe
  10. Mortal Kombat 11

In really the only lackluster category result of July, Video Game Hardware saw consumer spend decline 2% to $166 million. This is showing that most people have already purchased the current generation systems, are waiting for more news on discounts going into next generation or even holding off until Xbox Series X and PlayStation 5 before making a move. The upside is for 2020 as a whole, spending hit $1.8 billion which is an increase of 22% versus this same time frame last year. Mainly driven by strength in Switch, especially during the height of Animal Crossing: New Horizons buying.

Speaking of, Nintendo Switch was yet again the top-selling piece of hardware during July 2020. Nintendo’s hybrid offering has topped the list every month since November 2018. Which means it remains the best-selling console for 2020 as well, naturally.

Finally, Video Game Accessories accounted for the remaining $170 million in monthly sales which is actually a July month record. This figure is 34% higher than July 2019. Gamepad and headsets in particular set July records, although no specific number was attached. Reminiscent of when Fortnite was at its height of popularity, though not the same type of sizeable dollar amounts.

Stepping back to view July domestic sales overall, it’s not another ridiculous month like we saw during say March or the April. It’s still an exciting result for total industry spend, growing double-digits again for the the fifth consecutive month, plus featuring titles like Ghost of Tsushima and Paper Mario: The Origami King with steady demand to set select, more focused records.

Gaming is the type of entertainment that continues to be a great option for people that perhaps thought the country would be more open than it is due to lingering effects of COVID-19. I’ll take this time again to thank those people working hard to keep the States going, whether in medical, retail or other essential fields, and hope that games are able to lift the burden and provide a brief respite when not on the grind.

Hit up NPD Group’s lists and Mat Piscatella’s thread on Twitter for additional deets on July’s report. Stay safe, all. Thanks for stopping by.

*Digital Sales Not Included

Sources: Nintendo, The NPD Group, PlayStation Twitter.

-Dom

Let’s Count Just How Many Records Video Game Sales Set in April 2020

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April 2020 will go down forever as a tragic, horrifying month globally for many people enduring the coronavirus outbreak. My condolences to all those impacted, I wish you all the best during these trying times.

One silver lining at least is that video games are able to provide at least some relief from the monotony of social distancing and lock-down orders. And if sales are any indication, tons of people are most certainly getting their money’s worth.

Last month was a monumental one for video game industry sales, both domestically in the States and globally across digital marketplaces. It literally might have a record-breaking amount of records broken.

Just today both U.S. industry tracking firm The NPD Group and global digital data provider SuperData reported their respective figures for April, in what’s one of the single most newsworthy days in the history of gaming sales nerdom.

Rather than a more comprehensive deep dive into the myriad of stats, we’re going to do a rapid-fire recap of all the ridiculous statistics revealed today alongside lists of top-selling games both in the U.S. and globally by digital revenue. Then, I’ll get through a brief bit of commentary before we say goodbye.

Ready? Time to hit record.

Last month was a monumental one for video game industry sales, both domestically in the States and globally across digital marketplaces. It literally might have a record-breaking amount of records broken.

United States Games Industry Sales (April 5th to May 2nd):

Overall games industry spending increased a crazy 73% since this time last year, generating $1.5 billion. This is a record high for an April month, eclipsing that of April 2008’s $1.2 billion.

Monthly game software sales jumped 55% since April 2019, reaching the highest level ever for an April at $662 million. This beats out the previous record-holder again from April 2008, which totaled $642 million.

Within software, the most notable record is for Final Fantasy 7 Remake which led the monthly rankings chart and set a new franchise high for launch month dollar and unit sales, eclipsing that of Final Fantasy XV from 2016. Square Enix’s latest JRPG re-imagining is immediately the 3rd top seller of 2020 so far plus the best-selling PlayStation 4 title on the year.

It wouldn’t feel right if we didn’t mention Nintendo’s flagship hit Animal Crossing: New Horizons, even if the only record it set is short-term. The cute simulation and lifestyle game was ranked #2 on both the April and 2020 to date software charts. Its mini-accomplishment is that it’s the top-seller on Nintendo Switch as a platform over the past 12 months.

In terms of commercial successes we talk about every month, Call of Duty: Modern Warfare was the 2nd top-seller of April and is still the highest ranked game of both the last 12 months and 2020 itself. During its 7th month run since release, it’s the 4th fastest-selling game ever tracked by NPD Group. That fits my description of an “almost” record, so I’ll allow it.

Moving like Jagger to a game that’s the opposite of talked about each month, Just Dance 2020 is the quickest selling game in Ubisoft’s long-running franchise since Just Dance 2014. It improved its ranking on the monthly software chart, now at #11 in April after boogying to the 17th spot in March.

Quickly flipping to the hardware category, overall dollar spend is so close to being a record that it gets like half a point. Console sales reached $420 million during April 2020, up a whopping 163% versus this time last year. April 2008 refused to be dethroned this time, as it maintains the best April month ever when it generated $427 million.

Within the Hardware segment, Nintendo Switch held the #1 spot for the 17th straight month. Here comes the real doozy: During 2020 so far, its sales are the highest of any single platform in the history of domestic tracking for the first 4 months of a year outpacing even the Wii over a decade ago in April 2009. Incredible, especially in a time with supply concerns.

Not only that! Dollar sales of the “Big 3” consoles in the Nintendo Switch, PlayStation 4 and Xbox One all increased more than 160% year-on-year with Xbox One generating the best growth although NPD Group did not reveal an exact figure. From a unit sales standpoint, each of these hit record April amounts according to Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter:

Switch: 808,000

PlayStation 4: 411,000

Xbox One: 329,000

Last category here is accessories and game pads, which generated $384 million in monthly sales for an increase of 49% since April 2019. Record alert! Consumer spend on game pads reached a high for an April month, clearing almost twice as much as last year’s amount. PlayStation 4’s Dual Shock 4 black controller topped April’s list, while Nintendo’s Switch Pro Controller is still the best for 2020.

Want another record? I’ve.. heard we got one for ya. Spending on headsets and headphones achieved the best April month in history, beating out that of April 2018. Last month also boasted record results for Steering Wheels and Game Cards. Note that we didn’t hear exact figures for any of these sub-categories, only that they had their best April months of all time.

I feel like we all need a breather after so many records. Let’s look at the full domestic software charts for both last month and year-to-date before going global.

Top-Selling Games of April 2020, U.S. (Physical & Digital Dollar Sales):

  1. Final Fantasy 7 Remake
  2. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare
  3. Animal Crossing: New Horizons*
  4. NBA 2K20
  5. Grand Theft Auto V
  6. Resident Evil 3 Remake
  7. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 Remastered
  8. MLB: The Show 20
  9. Madden NFL 20
  10. Red Dead Redemption 2
  11. Just Dance 2020
  12. FIFA 20
  13. Mortal Kombat 11
  14. Borderlands 3
  15. Predator: Hunting Grounds
  16. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe*
  17. Star Wars Jedi: Fallen Order
  18. Persona 5: Royal
  19. Need for Speed: Heat
  20. Dragon Ball Z: Kakarot

Top-Selling Games of 2020 So Far, U.S. (Physical & Digital Dollar Sales):

  1. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare
  2. Animal Crossing: New Horizons*
  3. Final Fantasy 7 Remake
  4. NBA 2K20
  5. Dragon Ball Z: Kakarot
  6. MLB: The Show 20
  7. Grand Theft Auto V
  8. Resident Evil 3 Remake
  9. Madden NFL 20
  10. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe*

Gaming allows individuals to escape into new, exciting worlds where they don’t have to worry about a pandemic. Or they can at least virtually fight back against one.

Worldwide Digital Games Industry Sales (April 2020)

Expanding to the global games market, let’s check out digital sales estimates from SuperData via its usual monthly report. In general, this only includes digital downloads and additional revenue through in-game transactions thus excludes physical copies sold.

And again to confirm, these are internal estimates as opposed to say publisher data.

Spending on digital games around the globe surpassed a monumental $10.5 billion during April 2020 which is the highest month ever and growth of 17% since last year. Ding ding. Another record!

Driving this figure was a jump in console sales of 42%, mobile growth of 14% then PC sales moving 12% higher. Of course this is temporarily bolstered by lock-down orders, as gaming has become a popular way to defeat the inevitable boredom that sets in from staying home. The question becomes how long can it last?

Diving into more individual game results, usual suspect Animal Crossing: New Horizons sold 3.6 million digital copies in April which is down slightly from the record 5 million in its launch month of March. Still, it was the top-selling console game on the worldwide chart. Here’s this month’s record: After only two months on market, it’s already the top-selling Nintendo Switch title as measured by both digital unit sales estimates and dollar revenue from downloads.

The aforementioned Final Fantasy 7 Remake, which was the best-seller in the States during April, achieved the 2nd spot on the global digital rankings. Since we’re certainly counting, its total of 2.2 million digital downloads set multiple records for a launch month. This is the best digital result within the franchise ever, plus it’s the fastest-selling PlayStation exclusive to date beating out Marvel’s Spider-Man in 2018 by a slim margin. A win is a win!

While not a record, Resident Evil 3 Remake achieved another notable result during April 2020. Capcom’s latest remake in the long-running horror franchise eclipsed 1.3 million digital units sold during this its launch month, slightly below the 1.4 million of its predecessor in 2019’s Resident Evil 2 Remake.

Back to the records. Last month, League of Legends hit its best player count of all time and spending in Grand Theft Auto V on in-game content reached its highest level ever. Ongoing games continue in their appeal, as people gather virtually to either compete or work together collaboratively.

This leads into the full charts from SuperData estimates for global digital sales. Take it away, fancy image.

Top-Grossing Console Games of April 2020, Worldwide, Digital Sales:

  1. Animal Crossing: New Horizons
  2. Final Fantasy 7 Remake
  3. FIFA 20
  4. Grand Theft Auto V
  5. NBA 2K20
  6. DOOM Eternal
  7. Fortnite
  8. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 Remastered
  9. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare
  10. Resident Evil 3 Remake

Alright. I believe I’m fully on record proving how April was a record-breaking month. Counting them up, there are more than a dozen here which is likely some sort all-time high.

My reactions? No one could have predicted this, not even as recently as a couple months ago. This is absolutely unprecedented, even if for the wrong reasons during a tragic time for our world history.

Gaming as much as any other medium is benefiting because of the feeling of connection caused by sharing on social media or gearing up with others online. There’s local play, which helps pass the time with the very few loved ones with which we can spend time. Gaming allows individuals to escape into new, exciting worlds where they don’t have to worry about a pandemic. Or they can at least virtually fight back against one.

It’s not much in the way of analysis to say that April was one of if not the most noteworthy sales months this generation. What’s difficult to say is how long it will last with all the uncertainty surrounding the scary longevity of coronavirus and the potential for a vaccine. I’m thankful that people have games to entertain, especially those on the front lines working hard for our safety, and that for now many have enough disposable income to spend.

As the summer starts here and new PlayStation 4 games like The Last of Us Part 2 and Ghost of Tsushima release then Nintendo launches Paper Mario: The Origami King, where will the broader economy be, what level of unemployment will we see and how will sales look going into the marketing cycle for next generation consoles?

Let’s celebrate April for what it was, while acknowledging we have a long way to go outside of games.

As always, please check out NPD Group Analyst Mat Piscatella’s thread for many more details plus friend of the site Jeff Grubb’s recap on Venture Beat on the domestic report, then SuperData’s site for the global update. Thanks for reading, be healthy!

^Digital PC Sales Not Included, *Digital Sales Not Included, #Digital Sales on Consoles Included

Sources: Media Play News, NPD Group, Square Enix, SuperData Estimates, Venture Beat.

-Dom

Animal Crossing: New Horizons Rings in a Rallying of March U.S. Sales Results

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In the pantheon of Nintendo’s most popular games, people normally think of franchises like Mario, The Legend of Zelda and Smash Bros.

In 2020, it’s time to officially add Animal Crossing to the list.

The latest entry in the long-running, family-friendly simulation series entitled Animal Crossing: New Horizons is a massive commercial seller since its release last month. It’s the main driver behind a stellar March sales result domestically, undoubtedly boosting both software and hardware gains.

Attribute performance to pent up demand resulting from the last mainline entry being way back in 2012, the transition from its handheld hardware to the big screen on Nintendo Switch plus the tragically convenient timing of launching alongside enormous appetite for design, creation and social collaboration during a global lock down.

These myriad of factors caused New Horizons to achieve the top spot on the March 2020 software rankings in the United States, according to a new report from NPD Group. Easily the best launch ever for the series. It’s immediately the second best-selling game of 2020, leap-frogging everything except Call of Duty: Modern Warfare as Activision’s premier military shooter moves up to number one.

In what’s a staggering statistic, New Horizons generated the 3rd highest launch month sales of any game ever published by Nintendo in the history of domestic tracking behind only Super Smash Bros. Ultimate in late 2018 and 2008’s Super Smash Bros. Brawl. That means it’s above any Mario or Zelda, as storied as they might be.

Keeping with the theme of ridiculous numbers, launch month unit and dollar sales have already exceeded the individual *lifetime* sales of every other entry in the internally-developed Nintendo Animal Crossing franchise. Yes. It took less than a month on market to beat the overall results of those games.

What’s most impressive is NPD Group tracking doesn’t even include digital downloads for Nintendo games. This is strictly based on physical, boxed sales. Considering the stay at home orders across the world, I wouldn’t be surprised if digital contributed upwards of 40% or more overall. (Purely speculation. No quotes.)

A rising tide does lift all boats in this case. And that boat is more than likely used to get to one’s island in Animal Crossing, if sales are any indication.

Changing it up (heh) to another major software release of March, PlayStation 4 exclusive baseball series MLB The Show continues its quiet consistency on the charts. This year’s entry MLB The Show 20 hit third on the March software rankings, sliding in just below Call of Duty: Modern Warfare (which keeps on with its momentum, achieving an all-time high for a March month, might I add).

The Sony Interactive Entertainment San Diego studio creation is the top seller on the PlayStation 4 individual platform chart for March, plus already a Top 5 performer for the year to date overall software list. This year’s game yet again set another launch month franchise record, same as last year’s MLB The Show 19. It’s the definition of consistency, hitting the charts strong every single time.

(Who caught all the puns?)

Plenty of other new games dotted the March overall software chart. Capcom’s zombie remake Resident Evil 3 achieved the fourth spot and reached #7 on the list of 2020 best-sellers to date. DOOM Eternal from Bethesda Softworks went on a tear to #6. Worth noting that Bethesda is another publisher that doesn’t include digital sales, thus performance for DOOM Eternal accounting for downloads could be even better.

Two recent Japanese games charted in the States during March: Persona 5: Royal from Atlus/Sega lands an impressive start at #7 while Koei Tecmo’s Nioh 2 barely misses the top 10, debuting at the 11th spot.

Finally, Nintendo’s Pokémon Mystery Dungeon: Rescue Team DX achieved a Top 15 start while Activision Blizzard’s Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 Remastered rounds out the Top 20 even with a surprise, timed limited release solely on PlayStation 4.

Following the above highlights, here are the full overall software rankings for March 2020 then the year to date.

Top-Selling Games of March 2020 (Physical & Digital Dollar Sales):

  1. Animal Crossing: New Horizons*
  2. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare
  3. MLB: The Show 2020
  4. Resident Evil 3 Remake
  5. NBA 2K20
  6. DOOM Eternal*
  7. Persona 5: Royal
  8. Grand Theft Auto V
  9. Borderlands 3
  10. Mario Kart 8: Deluxe*
  11. Nioh 2
  12. Red Dead Redemption 2
  13. FIFA 20
  14. Super Smash Bros. Ultimate*
  15. Pokémon Mystery Dungeon: Rescue Team DX*
  16. Madden NFL 20
  17. Just Dance 2020
  18. Star Wars Jedi: Fallen Order
  19. Mortal Kombat 11
  20. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 Remastered

Top-Selling Games of 2020 So Far (Physical & Digital Dollar Sales):

  1. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare
  2. Animal Crossing: New Horizons*
  3. Dragon Ball Z: Kakarot
  4. NBA 2K20
  5. MLB: The Show 20
  6. Grand Theft Auto V
  7. Resident Evil 3 Remake
  8. Madden NFL 20
  9. Mario Kart 8: Deluxe*
  10. Star Wars Jedi: Fallen Order

Last month’s whopping result for Switch came in above this figure, likely upwards of a million or even more units. For a single month in one territory, this is incredible. It reveals how important quality software is to drive hardware sales years after initial launch, something Nintendo has perfected by now.

Let’s put these software starts in context and take a broader look at industry spending in March.

In a busy month, overall domestic consumer spending reached $1.6 billion which is an increase of 35% since this time last year. In fact, it’s the highest result in more than a decade for this particular time frame. The last time a March month generated higher sales was way back in 2008, at $1.8 billion.

Last month, dollar spending on software alone jumped 34% to $739 million in what was the best March month since 2011’s $787 million. Out of the top ten overall titles listed above, all but one of them generated higher sales than those at the same ranks last year.

Hardware spending increased a massive 63% since March 2019. Nintendo Switch was the best performer of course, more than doubling its sales year-over-year. Still, even its major competitors in PlayStation 4 and Xbox One both saw monthly increases above 25% using the same time frame comparison. This shows that it wasn’t just Nintendo’s release slate that provided a bump.

Expanding on Switch console sales, it was the single best month in the history of Nintendo’s hybrid console on the strength of the aforementioned Animal Crossing: New Horizons. That’s right. Last month was better than even its launch three years ago, the prior record holder. And that’s with supply constraints this year!

Let’s quickly review for context. Unit sales for Switch back during its launch month in March 2017 reached approximately 906K. Which means last month’s whopping result for Switch came in above this figure, likely upwards of a million or even more units. For a single month in one territory, this is incredible. It reveals how important quality software is to drive hardware sales years after initial launch, something Nintendo has perfected by now. Just when you think it can’t top itself, it does.

The final category measuring spending is accessories and game pads, up 12% since last year to $397 in March. This is a record high for a March month for both accessories, previously achieved back in 2008, and game pads as well. The top-selling game pad was the Nintendo Switch Pro Controller last month, while PlayStation 4 hit its best ever combined game pad spending during a March month.

A rising tide does lift all boats in this case. And that boat is more than likely used to get to one’s island in Animal Crossing, if sales are any indication.

Before we wrap, it’s not all great news unfortunately.

Broadening the scope tells somewhat of a different story for the first quarter overall. Year-to-date spending as a whole is down 4% since this same time last year, hitting around $3 billion. This covers the same categories of hardware, software and accessories and game pads.

Two of these categories are lower compared to 2019: software and accessories and game pads. Consumer spend on software titles during 2020 so far dipped 8% to $1.4 billion, while accessories and game pads weakened to $905 million, 3% off year-on-year. Which means that even with the new release boost last month, the earlier months in 2020 are dragging.

Even so, Switch and hardware buck the trend for the quarter. Hardware sales rose nearly 10% to $773 million during 2020 so far. Here’s the main factor: When talking unit sales, Nintendo Switch saw the best quarter for *any* platform, regardless of manufacturer, since a decade ago in 2010 when it was achieved by the Nintendo DS. A major Q1 hit will certainly do that.

To summarize, March ends up being an exciting month for video game sales and the industry for those teams releasing new games especially. Partially a byproduct of those major software launches, somewhat due to the coronavirus impacting buying and playing habits. It’s a sad, tragic situation for the world right now. One of the few bright spots is being able to enjoy video games, which means some staggering statistics for a March month here in the States.

I highly recommend sifting through NPD Analyst Mat Piscatella’s thread on Twitter where he provides even more detail, notably on individual platforms. He also posted a follow-up piece at the NPD Blog to give more insight into Animal Crossing in particular.

Another month and quarter in the books. And it was a wild one. How did your predictions go? What’s the biggest surprise? Are you somehow one of the few people like me that isn’t playing New Horizons? Swing by in the comments or Twitter to chat.

Lastly, I hope you and your families, friends and loved ones are safe during this difficult time. Shout out to everyone working at essential jobs and healthcare. You are heroes. Thanks for reading!

^Digital PC Sales Not Included, *Digital Sales Not Included, #Digital Sales on Consoles Included

Sources: Activision Blizzard, Go Nintendo, Nintendo of America, NPD Group, Sony Corp.

-Dom

Now That We Know Specs, How Much Will PlayStation 5 & Xbox Series X Cost?

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The short answer: We still don’t know. Yet that won’t stop us from speculating!

Even though we’re now a bit closer to seeing the full picture, there are still plenty of variables at play. Right now, no one on the outside actually knows.

That said, it’s time to guess.

After Sony’s “Road to PlayStation 5” video reveal of the technical specifications for its upcoming PlayStation 5 hardware, we know a lot more about components and power expectations for it alongside its main competitor in Microsoft’s Xbox Series X. So it’s easier to approximate where they might be at launch, currently scheduled for late this year. Which is great. Because while power is important, I’d argue price drives consumer sentiment more than anything.

For those looking for in-depth breakdowns of specs and numbers for Sony and Microsoft’s hardware, check out Digital Foundry’s work at this link for the PlayStation 5 and this one for the Xbox Series X. The team also compiled a comparison piece across the two consoles, at least based on the information so far.

Then there’s the latest collaboration with Digital Foundry, Austin Evans and Xbox Wire with even more detail into Microsoft’s project, plus Sony’s own PlayStation Blog post summarizing various items on its box. Plenty of places to soak up the technical jargon. It’s impressive coverage, to the point where even someone that follows the business and critical side of games can almost understand.

Here, we’re going to cover mostly the general points and see just what they mean for potential launch pricing. Price drives consumer decisions just as much as power, arguably even more so since it’s an easy comparison point between different products. Don’t worry if some of the tech side goes over your head. You’re not alone.

Based on the reports as you see above, the conclusion is the raw components and feature sets are mostly comparable with some important distinctions. In terms of capabilities, there are common ones. They support high frame rates and 8K resolutions. They’ve got Raytracing (get used to this buzzword for a fancy lighting technique). 3D audio. Custom AMD processors. Solid state drives. Some form of backwards compatibility for legacy software.

It’s looking at the divergences that spark discussion of course. Without getting too much into the weeds, I’ve heard it framed as such: The Xbox Series X is more powerful while the PlayStation 5 is notably speedier. The former has the more capable processing power, while the latter has a tailored solution for delivering the highest speed possible.

Which makes sense when we step back. Microsoft’s general philosophy is now about how it has the most powerful console this generation in the Xbox One X, and the focus remains on the upper end targeting tech enthusiasts this time as well. The upcoming Xbox Series X is twice as powerful as the improved version of its predecessor, the Xbox One X. Microsoft’s goal is to have games looking great and running smoothly plus is going to offer the ability to suspend and resume multiple games at once. Which fits with its ecosystem, software compatibility and catalog approach.

The downside to the raw power of the Xbox Series X is that it requires proprietary expandable storage options, which will add to the cost of keeping the console over time when hard drive space inevitably fills up. This certainly lowers its price tag, yet adds to the overall investment across the full generation. There’s also the question of first party software support, which is a primary concern though less relevant in this context.

Flipping over to Sony’s PlayStation 5, its specs are still impressive. While in raw terms its numbers are notably lower than Xbox, its implementation is slightly different in using what’s termed “variable frequency,” more plainly a type of “boost” to allocate its power budget. Sounds to me like a focus more on optimization rather than sheer strength.

This also fits with its design mantra of placing a major focus on speed. Limiting loading times for players, offering studios the tools to minimize downtime and providing better options on the consumer storage side. This is achieved by leveraging a custom system alongside its 825 GB solid state hard drive plus expandable storage that doesn’t require proprietary equipment. Simply, the real treat is its storage speed and flexibility.

Mark Cerny, Sony’s lead system architect and hypnotic public speaker, described the solid state drive as the single most requested component by software developers. Capabilities for the people that make games are just as important as delivering performance output to those that play them. Which is why the PlayStation 5 seems tuned for speed.

One disappointment of Sony’s messaging so far is its stance on backwards compatibility. The aforementioned PlayStation Blog post alludes to many of the most popular PlayStation 4 games being playable at launch on the new console generation, then comments that there are roughly 4,000 PS4 games on which they will be working on this feature. Does that mean only select games will be available? Or that those will benefit from the PS5 power? We need more clarification of this increasingly more important feature.

Capabilities for the people that make games are just as important as delivering performance output to those that play them. Which is why the PlayStation 5 seems tuned for speed.

This summary of the broader strategies across the two competing hardware makers brings us to the real debate:

How much will people have to pay to move to next gen later this year?

We’ll start with the PlayStation 5, mainly because we already have some insight into its supply chain and pricing decisions from a Bloomberg piece last month.

For context, PlayStation 4 released at $399 back in 2014 while 2016’s more powerful mid-step PlayStation 4 Pro hit that same price later in the cycle, after discounts applied for the original box.

Rumors suggest that the manufacturing cost for the upcoming PlayStation 5 is currently at $450 per console, which is well above the estimated $381 for the base model of its predecessor. And this is strictly speaking about component cost. It doesn’t include the additional marketing and distribution associated with launching a flagship product.

During a conference call with investors earlier this year, Sony’s Chief Financial Officer Hiroki Totoki said “We must keep PlayStation 5’s bill of materials under our control and we need to make the correct number of units in the initial production.”

That certainly sounds like component cost might be approaching levels that Sony didn’t anticipate. Knowing these factors, could we see the same $399 introductory price for the PlayStation 5 this holiday?

I think there’s an argument to be made that we will, and it’s where I predicted it to be when discussing the topic in late 2019. That was without knowledge of the power capabilities and higher-than-expected component cost. Console manufacturers traditionally have slim margins early in a console life cycle, though $399 would be clearly selling at a loss. Companies aren’t in the business of losing money.

I’m leaning towards upping my forecast to $449, with Sony eating those additional expenses in hopes of making it up in volume and software sales. This puts it roughly at what it costs to make, and it’s only 50 bucks more than where it launched PlayStation 4 nearly seven years ago.

Gaming has been largely free from the reality of inflation so far, what with big budget software costs remaining consistent through the years. Even if publishers are finding ways to generate additional revenue via downloadable content and customization options. With rising costs to build hardware, it’s looking like a higher baseline for console launch cost is approaching.

There’s also a chance that Sony’s console starts at $499, especially if supply chain constraints limit the availability of parts. I don’t think it will be this high due to both sticker shock and competitor decisions, yet we can’t rule out the possibility based on what we know of its specs now. Especially if Sony only has the one model at launch, its usual strategy.

Microsoft’s situation is somewhat different. It’s already revealed plenty about the beefy Xbox Series X. While there aren’t yet rumblings of how much it costs to build, we can deduce that it’s likely going to be more than the PlayStation 4.

Thing is, there’s still the unknown of Microsoft potentially offering a more affordable option simultaneously at launch. Allegedly the team is working in parallel on the Xbox Series X and what’s dubbed Project Lockhart, a slimmed down version with less power and a friendlier price. Similar to what phone manufacturers do. Two products, one targeting the enthusiast and the other suited more for a broader, casual audience.

Even this generation, Microsoft has dabbled with offering a variety of console options. Xbox One hit market in late 2013 at $499, a much higher price point than its competition. Problem was, it wasn’t actually more powerful. It was that way because of bundling Kinect.

We then saw the Xbox One S version in 2016, beginning lower at $299. The most powerful family member in the Xbox One X launched a year later, coming in at $499 to appeal to dedicated players that wanted more than the earlier models could produce.

Shoot, Microsoft has been even more experimental later this generation. The Xbox One S All-Digital Edition hit last year for $249, making it the most cost effective in the family. Even if it had little fanfare and we don’t actually know how well the market reacted.

Phil Spencer, Head of Xbox, hearkened back to the early days last gen in an interview with Eurogamer by saying “If you remember at the launch of Xbox One, we were $100 more expensive and less powerful. So, I won’t be in that position. There’s no doubt about that. As an industry that’s growing so fast, we do think about price. We do think about performance as well. I’m not going to sacrifice performance for the sake of price.”

Combining this sentiment with now seeing the power potential of Xbox Series X, I’m at a minimum of $499 for launch cost. I just don’t see a way Microsoft can price it lower and not take a serious bath on each unit. $549 is probably a smarter prediction, even $599 contingent upon the existence of the lower-priced Lockhart version of course. I don’t think Microsoft can enter next gen with only one console priced at $599. That’s beyond risky. I think the smart people on the team know that.

There’s ways to make it more enticing even at a higher price than the PlayStation 5. I’ve said bundling Xbox Live and/or Xbox Game Pass would go a long way to incentivizing the undecided audience towards the Xbox ecosystem. Even spreading out the cost with a payment plan, similar to its Xbox All Access program.

Gaming has been largely free from the reality of inflation so far, what with big budget software costs remaining consistent through the years.. With rising costs to build hardware, it’s looking like a higher baseline for console launch cost is approaching.

What makes predicting this generation even more difficult is the increased uncertainty surrounding global economies and the impact of coronavirus. How will it impact component availability and supply chain? Could it even delay the launch to 2021? I’m not calling for that just yet. We have to acknowledge it could happen.

The last question for now is: When will these companies reveal pricing? The Bloomberg piece suggests that Sony is somehow waiting for Microsoft to make the first move. Sony hasn’t even shown the form factor of PlayStation 5 yet. While Microsoft has even let certain media members see Xbox Series X in person and been extremely vocal about sharing details, it’s still quiet on the potential of another model. With the delay of various gaming events globally and the move to a digital format for many presentations, I expect a longer wait than usual for price announcements. Think closer to the summer.

I’m on record with my predictions of $399 for the PlayStation 5 and $499 for the Xbox Series X, while leaving the door open to moving up slightly if component scarcity hits or some other disruption. It’s too early to lock in officially. (Yes, I’m leaving myself an out. Wouldn’t you?)

Anyone confident enough to place bets even when we don’t have all the information and there’s plenty up in the air with current socioeconomic elements? What are your price expectations right now?

Pretty soon, we’ll all have to go on record.

I look forward to hearing here or on Twitter. Thanks for reading!

Note: All pricing discussed above is in US Dollars.

Sources: Bloomberg, Eurogamer, Digital Foundry, Microsoft, PlayStation Blog, Sony, Xbox Wire.

-Dom