Sony, Ubisoft, Activision & Take-Two Earnings Recap: It’s a Numbers Game

As you likely read recently at my post of this quarter’s earnings calendar across gaming, tech and media, this week was an especially busy one for these industries.

In addition to the likes of Twitter and Disney, we saw gaming giants share updates on their recent financial results. Today I’ll both summarize and analyze Sony, Ubisoft, Activision and Take-Two reports and highlight the most important parts driving each business. Plus, chat some about predictions and where these companies are going in the near future.

I hope to.. hm, earn your confidence as we work through these because it should be a good one!

Sony Corp: Tuesday, February 4th.

Japanese media and gaming conglomerate Sony Corp reported a number of updates across its myriad of businesses for 3rd quarter of fiscal 2019, including its Gaming & Network Services (G&NS) business which houses its PlayStation brand and continues to be its main revenue source.

Notably, Sony announced that its PlayStation 4 hardware has now passed 108.9 million consoles shipped globally after moving 6.1 million during the holiday quarter. As expected later in the console cycle, this quarterly figure is down from 8.1 million last year. Still, the company reiterated its current forecast of 13.5 million consoles for the full year, implying we’ll see another 1.4 million come the end of March.

In terms of software within G&NS, PlayStation 4 game sales totaled 81.1 million copies in the quarter compared to 87.2 million in Q3 of 2018. 49% of these full game sales are now digital, when last year it was 37%. After its Q1 report hit 53% digital back in June, Sony is certainly on track to see at least 40% digital share this fiscal year which would be the first year ever it’s crossed this threshold.

Switching over to the services side, its PlayStation Plus subscription service, which offers online multiplayer access, hit 38.8 million registered users versus the 36.3 million player base last year. This increased subscription audience drove Network Services to be the only sub-segment within G&NS growing this quarter on dollar sales.

Speaking of dollars, Sony overall generated $22.4 billion in sales and operating revenue which is up 3% since last year on strength in its financial services and imaging businesses. Operating income however experienced a decline of 20%, to $2.73 billion. Within G&NS, sales dipped 20% to $3.3 billion with operating profit down 27% to just under $490 million due to lower hardware and external software sales. That PlayStation Plus user increase did help to offset this.

You’ll see in the chart above that even aggregating over the last 12 month period, during which sales were approximately $18.8 billion for its gaming business, the decline is tangible. It’s more pronounced than I even expected leading into the formal reveal of its PlayStation 5, due this holiday season. Partially due to the major success of titles like Red Dead Redemption 2 and Marvel’s Spider-Man driving sales during last year’s comparable time frame.

Sony’s higher network services revenue shows the growing importance of ecosystem and subscriptions to keep an audience engaged especially late in the cycle, helping to smooth out performance plus offset weakness in hardware and full game sales.

Within the PlayStation business, Sony realigned its segment reporting which I’ve presented above. Both digital software and add-on content and hardware sales experienced double-digit declines, though network services gained nearly 10%. Sony’s higher network services revenue shows the growing importance of ecosystem and subscriptions to keep an audience engaged especially late in the cycle, helping to smooth out performance plus offset weakness in hardware and full game sales.

Looking forward, the firm actually boosted its overall guidance slightly for sales and operating profit for the full year, though lowered these projections within its PlayStation unit, which means it expects a lower contribution than before. My personal take is that this quarter’s result is a bit lower than I anticipated, though certainly fits with where the major manufacturer and software producer is at ahead of its next console release in the back half of this year.

It’s going to be lackluster for a few more quarters leading into PlayStation 5, and I’m intrigued to see how its network services and subscriptions perform in the interim.

Ubisoft Entertainment SA: Thursday, February 6th.

Yesterday’s third quarter sales announcement from French video game publisher Ubisoft was lighter on the details than its competitors. But there’s still plenty to discuss (and speculate, of course)!

From the numbers side, sales for the nine months ending December dipped 16% to $1.23 billion which is on pace to come in well below the firm’s initial expectations due to softer sales of games like Tom Clancy’s Ghost Recon Breakpoint and Tom Clancy’s The Division 2 in particular. Ubisoft did point out that Just Dance 2020 is.. this is an easy one, performing well. Digital equates to nearly 80% of total sales, a figure which includes both digital game downloads and in-game purchases.

Because of somewhat weaker results for new titles, back catalog sales are propping up its recent numbers. Revenue of these older titles hit nearly 69% of business compared to 62% in the same period last year. Assassin’s Creed Odyssey from 2018 saw a major rise in unit sell-through plus engagement compared to its predecessor Assassin’s Creed Origins. 2015’s Tom Clancy’s Rainbow Six Siege is still showing excellent momentum years after launch, boasting 55 million registered players and record active users for a December month.

Unfortunately, Ubisoft doesn’t share much in the way of profitability metrics outside of annual reporting. I’d imagine it’s facing a similar trend in declines, perhaps even more pronounced because of rising costs associated with developing games that it delayed a few months back. It did reiterate its full-year sales targets for both this fiscal year ending March and the following one, showing early confidence in its adjusted release schedule.

At a personal level, I’m extremely excited for Ubisoft’s robust lineup after the type of year it’s had with core franchises. At an analyst level, I’ll remain intently skeptical all targets will be met until we hear exactly how these games will roll-out.

Speaking of its development pipeline, we’ve arrived at the best part of Ubisoft’s press release and conference call. The rest of this fiscal year through March is light. No major releases. Looking forward, CEO Yves Guillemot highlights the internal organizational restructuring in an attempt to strengthen its most important titles, which means the firm reiterated its plan to release five new triple-A titles between October 2020 and March 2021. Now we’re getting somewhere.

I spoke with Ubisoft Investor Relations briefly over email to confirm that three of these flagship games are targeted for the October to December window while the remaining two are slated in January to March. Three of these five have been formally announced: Watch Dogs Legion, Gods & Monsters and Rainbow Six Quarantine.

The worst kept secret in the industry is that a Norse-themed Assassin’s Creed game is on the way this Fall, so let’s mark that down as the fourth. My ongoing assumption for the final one is a new mainline Far Cry, thereby crushing the hopes of Splinter Cell fans everywhere yet again. Kotaku’s Jason Schreier claims that these are both true, so we essentially have an unofficial confirmation of its full fiscal year lineup.

It’s an ambitious schedule, especially for this upcoming holiday quarter during the launch of consoles from Microsoft and Sony. Ubisoft is usually one of the most dedicated supporters of a new generation, capitalizing on the updated tech and fervent early adopters. It sounds like this time it’s no different, although I wouldn’t be surprised if only two projects end up releasing before December and the remainder sometime during the first half of calendar year 2021. Having three titles jam-packed into the holiday quarter risks cannibalization, especially given how most of these games feature some sort of open world or action elements.

Now these aren’t the only pending games from the publisher. Guillemot points out it does have more intimate ones, as he describes them as “very innovative titles that have a particular focus on social interaction.” Main example being Roller Champions. I’d imagine there’s also a mobile game from internal studio Social Point or perhaps a new UbiArt style project made by a smaller team.

At a personal level, I’m extremely excited for Ubisoft’s robust lineup after the type of year it’s had with core franchises. At an analyst level, I’ll remain intently skeptical all targets will be met until we hear exactly how these games will roll-out.

Activision Blizzard: Thursday, February 6th.

Out of those reporting this week, domestic publisher Activision Blizzard was the only one with a fiscal year ending in December. Thus it shared both fourth quarter and annual metrics.

Twice the fun!

For the quarter, results exceeded internal expectations with net revenues of $1.99 billion though were down compared to the $2.38 billion generated last year. Operating income totaled $454 million, off from the $694 million in fourth quarter 2018. Nearly $1.29 billion of sales, equating to 65% of the total, were from subscriptions, licensing and micro-transactions rather than retail product sales or full game downloads. That’s the model for these major software makers going forward, after all.

Across the full year, Activision Blizzard generated almost $6.49 billion. Which is down a billion bucks since 2018. 76% digital share in 2019, essentially flat compared to the 77% in prior year. Operating profit reached $1.61 billion, down from the near $1.99 billion. Which means that while results beat the firm’s estimates, the trend is certainly down for the company overall.

What really caught my eye when looking at what’s driving these figures is the distribution of sales for the full year across its Activision, Blizzard and King businesses. Historically, Activision is top dog. That fits the narrative this year, as its split is 36% of total sales and 41% of profit. However, mobile subsidiary King is now in second place, which means the overall firm is now benefiting more from its casual phone offerings like Candy Crush than traditional games made by its storied Blizzard studios.

It’s clear that flagship franchise Call of Duty from Activision is as strong as ever. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare unit sales and engagement stats are up strongly compared to last year’s Call of Duty: Black Ops 4. Around half of Modern Warfare console sales are now digital, helping it become the best-selling game in the States during 2019 as I wrote about recently. Then there’s Call of Duty Mobile, which now has over 150 million downloads after one of the biggest launches in history.

On the Blizzard side, dollar sales ended the year at $1.72 billion which is down 25%. Monthly active users dipped 3 million since this time in 2018, now at 32 million. It’s a mixed bag for this division, where growth for Overwatch and World of Warcraft driven by a resurgence of interest for its Classic version couldn’t offset declines in Hearthstone and Diablo. It’s been an intriguing time for Blizzard in recent years, with a focus on continued support of older franchises rather than new releases. There’s Overwatch 2 in the pipeline, with no launch window. And I’m still skeptical of how fans will react to it. Then there’s Diablo IV, which I have to believe is a long ways out. This trend is likely to continue for the short to medium term.

Mobile subsidiary King is now in second place, which means [Activision Blizzard] is now benefiting more from its casual phone offerings like Candy Crush than traditional games made by its historic Blizzard studios.

Tying in with this is the last major item: its forecast for next year plus its mention of new titles. Activision Blizzard expects to generate $6.45 billion in revenue during 2020, slightly below this year’s figure. Guidance for earnings is also down 5%. Factored into this forward-looking guidance is.. surprise! A new Call of Duty project set to release in the last quarter of 2020.

Thing is, I’m not sure what else will drive its performance. Blizzard is set to focus again on continuing games like WoW, then a test phase for phone game Diablo Immortal in the middle of 2020. King reportedly has multiple new mobile games in development. On its conference call, Chief Financial Officer Dennis Durkin alluded to these not having material impact on guidance.

So, what will? Well, friends, we’ve reached the highlight. Activision Blizzard is sitting on a goldmine of legacy properties that it hasn’t leveraged as well as competitors. To that end, the company expects to “tap into our portfolio of beloved IP to bring several remastered and re-imagined experiences to our players in 2020, which we will announce closer to launch” according to Durkin.

In recent years, the company’s seen success with collections like Crash Bandicoot N. Sane Trilogy and Spyro Reignited Trilogy, the former being a major commercial win at 10 million units shipped. This type of quote shows that executives at least acknowledge the value of such brands. The issue becomes that fans of these franchises desire new games yet the quote is ambiguous. Will it continue to be more of the same or might we see new projects within these nostalgic series? Apparently we should hear sooner than later.

Take-Two Interactive: Thursday, February 6th.

Finally this brings us to the last one up. Another stateside developer/publisher in Take-Two Interactive, owner of historic labels Rockstar Games and 2K Games plus the Private Division publishing arm and mobile subsidiary Social Point. Take-Two reported its third quarter of fiscal 2020 results via the usual press release, then went in-depth on its conference call highlighting sales results of all its major franchises. (My favorite part.)

The way I’ll tackle Take-Two is talking broadly about its quarterly figures then drill into its owned businesses. Net revenue overall reached $930 million, down from $1.25 billion. Mostly because of the comparison to the massive launch of Red Dead Redemption 2 this time last year. Operating profit hit $177 million, down from $303 million in 2018 Q3.

Of its total sales, 37% is now from recurring spending; a metric which grew 15% this quarter and represents virtual currency, add-on content and in-game items. This drove the digital share to 75% of full revenue for the quarter. The company also reported that around 41% of its business originated from catalog sales, mainly those within the Grand Theft Auto and Red Dead Redemption franchises plus mobile titles from Social Point.

2K Games, which the company estimates will be around 55% of its business this fiscal, benefited from ongoing sales of NBA 2K20 as it now totals 8 million units shipped to date since its September release. Roughly on part with its predecessor. This quarter’s slate included the launch of Sid Meier’s Civilization VI on console, Borderlands 3 and NBA 2K20 for Stadia (neither of which I imagine contributed materially) and WWE 2K20.

Borderlands 3 continues its better-than-expected start since release a few months back, now totaling 8 million units sold-in. This is after moving 5 million copies within a five day span near launch. Take-Two notes that while it expects lifetime sales to achieve a record within the franchise, it’s factoring lower sales for Gearbox Software’s latest into its annual forecast.

On the flip side, WWE 2K20 saw a lackluster launch that drastically under-performed the firm’s internal estimates on both the critical and commercial sides. Developer Visual Concepts is working to rebound, though I think this year’s iteration is down for the count.

Still, the cash cow for Rockstar continues to be Grand Theft Auto V. A game which apparently isn’t yet in the homes of every single person who owns a gaming console because its lifetime copies shipped hit a whopping 120 million in the holiday quarter.

One of the most consistent and frankly notorious teams in the business is Rockstar Games, which will account for 35% of Take-Two’s annual net bookings. Its main release this past quarter was Red Dead Redemption 2 on PC around the year anniversary of its console version, which drove lifetime unit sales for the game to over 29 million. This is up from 26.5 million copies as of September, proving the impact of the new platform plus the ongoing adoption of Red Dead Online for which CEO Strauss Zelnick said engagement tripled year-on-year.

Still, the cash cow for Rockstar continues to be Grand Theft Auto V. A game which apparently isn’t yet in the homes of every single person who owns a gaming console because its lifetime copies shipped hit a whopping 120 million in the holiday quarter. That’s 5 million more than the prior quarter. No one at Take-Two or really anywhere in their wildest dreams could have predicted this sort of longevity.

A part of this crazy momentum is the ongoing success of Grand Theft Auto Online, which somehow achieved a record audience size in December and in the quarter overall. Recurring spending from consumers on GTAO jumped 54% this quarter after a new expansion in the Summer. Take-Two expects this online mode to have a record fiscal year in terms of recurring consumer spend. Keep in mind: The base game released in 2013, and its online mode really picked up steam the following year. Honestly doesn’t seem to be stopping anytime soon.

Moving to Private Division, its major release during Q3 was The Outer Worlds which debuted on Xbox Game Pass in addition to its console and PC platforms. Obsidian Entertainment’s recent space role-playing title, which earned a Top 5 spot on my 2019 Games of the Year list, has now sold-in 2 million copies since October. And that doesn’t even include downloads from Xbox Game Pass, nor its Nintendo Switch release which is set for sometime before March 2021 (I’d imagine even sooner).

Another quick note is that Kerbal Space Program, the first game in a franchise now run by Private Division, is approaching a new sales milestone itself by reaching nearly 4 million copies shipped. The company reiterated that its sequel is due in fiscal 2021 as well.

Switching over to the broader company’s outlook for the full year, it adjusted the numbers slightly though I wouldn’t say it’s a substantial impact. Basically it tightened the range in which its revenue expectations, then slightly lowered its profit guidance. As you’ll see above, net revenue should be up however net bookings will contract. I’m not as concerned as other industry commentators, as I think this quarter and year look a whole lot worse than they really are because of just how ridiculously well Red Dead Redemption 2 did.

I’d even argue Take-Two’s upcoming lineup is just as intriguing as Ubisoft’s, even if we don’t know as much about its major projects. Speaking on its development pipeline, Zelnick called it the “largest and most diverse in our history, including releases from our largest franchises, new IP and a broad mix of gameplay experiences.”

Sure, that’s a bit of corporate speak. It’s still somewhat indicative of where one of the industry’s premier software players is going. Shorter-term, this implies to me new annual releases in the NBA 2K and even WWE 2K franchises, new platforms for existing titles plus ongoing content for the online modes in its main games.

Medium to long term is where it gets exciting. First and foremost, the filing announcing the departure of former Rockstar Games co-founder and vice president Dan Houser said the team is working on both “current and future projects.” Where does Rockstar goes with its upcoming slate now that its model has changed to fostering player retention via online modes rather than solely single-player experiences? Will there be a Grand Theft Auto VI? The answer is yes, we just don’t know what form it will take with this different ideology. I’m more curious about what games Rockstar might have that aren’t Grand Theft Auto.

Then there’s (my beloved) BioShock. Take-Two announced a new studio called Cloud Chamber this past quarter, which is currently developing the next iteration in the series. Within this earnings release, the company reiterated that it will be in the works for “several years.” While it isn’t factored into the immediate forecast, I’m ecstatic to hear how it progresses.

Executives even fielded questions on other teams such as Hangar 13, known for Mafia 3, then the newly-formed 2K Silicon Valley led by industry veteran Michael Condrey. Sounds like these are in fact actively working on projects, we just can’t hear about them yet.

I’d say Take-Two’s current position is summarized by President Karl Slatoff as he echoes his CEO’s sentiment: Its pipeline consists of “new IP and existing franchises, free-to-play games, different business models, casual games, core games, mid-core games” about which they will share more in upcoming months.

While I don’t expect Take-Two to have a major presence during this year’s set of console launches outside of sports titles, we’ll undoubtedly see it capitalize on the new tech in the mid-term. And who knows, maybe Rockstar will surprise us?

Well then. That’s a pretty darn comprehensive look at the week that was in games industry financial reporting if I say so. Spiced up with my takes (as varying in quality they might be).

Reflected across all four is the trend of ongoing digital and services attempting to offset the contraction in hardware resulting from next generation beginning this holiday season, plus development plans that will ramp up at various points in the future. Ubisoft seems to be the most immediately impacted with its recent delays, while Activision and Take-Two lean on recurring sales from their biggest budget franchises to soften the blow while we await new tech from hardware manufacturers and emerging platforms alike.

If you made it this far: You rock! Thanks for reading.

Note: All comparisons are year-over-year unless noted. Currency conversions are to U.S. dollar as of February 7, 2020 for the sake of comparison.

Sources: Company Investor Relations & Media Sites, Getty Images, Kotaku, The NPD Group.

-Dom

Earnings Calendar Jan & Feb 2020: Gaming, Media & Tech Companies

Updated: February 12th.

The first season of the year is upon us.

Here I’ll document all the companies reporting earnings results during the quarter, via the trusty calendar you see above. I’ll do my best to maintain it going forward since there are a number of dates still up in the air.

There’s also a Google Doc I maintain with easy access to dates and investor sites.

Working Casual Earnings Calendar Jan & Feb 2020: Gaming, Media & Tech Companies

Unfortunately due to time constraints at a personal level, I won’t be able to provide additional commentary just yet. Stay tuned for that, likely at the same time as I update the calendar in the near future when we have some more conctrete dates!

Until then, I’ll be covering select earnings reports mostly on Twitter then later here. See you then.

Source: Company Investor Websites.

-Dom

Sony’s PlayStation 4 Becomes Second Best-Selling Home Console of All Time

Passionate PlayStation fans have driven Sony Corp to yet another impressive, hm.. milestone in its storied history as a game console manufacturer.

Announced in a supplemental sheet as part of its quarterly earnings report today, the Japanese technology conglomerate shared that it shipped 2.8 million PlayStation 4 consoles in the three months ending September 2019. Which means that to date, the PlayStation 4 has now passed 102.8 million consoles sold.

While at first it doesn’t sound as noteworthy as the PS4 surpassing the 100 million threshold last quarter, it’s super impressive in the context of all-time sellers in the home market. That’s because PS4 formally passed both Nintendo’s 2006 system Wii (101.63 million) and Sony’s own original PlayStation from 1994 (102.49 million) to land as the second best-selling console ever.

Only Sony’s PlayStation 2 system has shipped more units, at a whopping 155 million at last count.

Sensing a theme?

This marks yet another major accomplishment for the team. Led by Sony’s focus on appealing to core gamers with both its marketing and software lineup plus launching at a lower initial price than its main competitor in Microsoft’s Xbox One, the PlayStation 4 has cemented itself as a legendary couch gaming experience with exceptional commercial success.

Obviously question is: Can it pass its most accomplished ancestor, the PlayStation 2?

My simple answer is: Unlikely. Sony has already announced the PlayStation 5 is due out in late 2020. The company has consistently reduced its forecast of PS4 shipments for its full 2019 fiscal year from 16 million back in April to 15 million in July, then 13.5 million in this latest report. Assuming it does hit 13.5 million, that equates to roughly 110 million in the wild overall by March 2020.

Even taking into account another fiscal year during the transition to a new generation, I can see under 125 million before PS5 appeals to a broader audience than just early adopters. Depends of course on how later generation software exclusives fare plus discount trend over time.

Well. It will have to settle for second place at the moment.

Beyond the eye-catching headline, Sony’s latest financial quarter was mixed at best especially within its gaming division. Check below for highlights and, might I say, lively commentary. The company’s presentation is here. Note that dollar amounts used are estimates, converted from local currency.

As displayed above for the company’s overall second quarter, sales and operating revenue dipped 3% since last year to around $19.5 billion while operating income surpassed $2.57 billion, an increase of 16%. Both revenue and earnings-per-share results actually beat analyst consensus, though Sony lowered its forecast for both metrics when considering the full fiscal year ending in March 2020.

Within its Game & Network Services (G&NS) unit, which includes PlayStation hardware, software and related services, quarterly sales slipped 17% to $4.5 billion while operating profit dropped 28% to just under $600 million. Sony pointed out that an increase in PlayStation Plus subscription revenue was not enough to offset a dip in both hardware and software dollar sales, thus the lowered performance.

Now, it’s always worth considering these reports in a broader context. Comparing quarters is only part of the equation. When pushing the dollar sales trend out to a trailing 12-month period then mapping over time, we certainly see a recent decline. Thing is, it’s above this time last year. Which means that even as it approaches the reveal and launch of the PlayStation 5, gaming is maintaining decent momentum. Profit is down slightly when looking at a similar trailing time frame, though well above where it’s been in prior years.

Note that similar to the company’s overall forecast, Sony also lowered its G&NS division forecast for both sales and profit for the full year, plus the PlayStation 4 hardware target as I noted previously.

Let’s chat a few specifics within its gaming business, then wrap with a couple observations and future thoughts.

While PlayStation 4 eclipsed sales of most of its historical competitors this quarter, it’s obvious that hardware and software are both slowing ahead of a new console cycle. The full game software sales total of 61.3 million copies is down from last year’s 75.1 million, likely due to the massively popular Marvel’s Spider-Man releasing in the corresponding quarter of 2018.

In terms of physical and digital split, 37% of software sales in Q2 were downloads. Compare this to around 28% this time last year, and it’s clear the trend is inching towards digital even for a traditional platform holder. Combine this with the popularity of PlayStation Plus, which rose to 36.9 million subscribers compared to last year’s 34.3 million, and we see how much digital and services matter when hardware sales are tapering off due to the natural cycle. It’s especially true this generation, as prior generations skewed much more towards retail consumption.

Speaking of business split, above charts out individual product categories within the gaming division over recent quarters. Which shows a handful of notable trends.

First, hardware sales are among the lowest this generation. Expected now that PS5 is official. Software remains the most prominent part of the PlayStation business other than occasionally during the holiday quarter, so it’s natural that growth ebbs and flows with it. Take a look at the green Network Services bar. This burgeoning segment has shown double-digit year-on-year growth every single quarter. Services are the talk of the industry lately, and for good reason. Sony is seeing tangible contribution from providing customers with things like PlayStation Plus, PlayStation Now and others to where I anticipate this to continue smoothly in both the near and long term.

So. What does this all mean and where’s Sony going in the future within its most important business segment?

It’s obviously a mixed quarter both overall and within G&NS, most notably because of its lowered guidance for annual revenue, profit and PlayStation 4 hardware sales. Though when smoothing this quarter’s performance over time, the PlayStation business is showing legs before entering into a new chapter. Most noteworthy being the digital and services slices.

Still, software is key and that will dictate the remainder of this year. What I anticipated to be the year’s top console seller, Call of Duty: Modern Warfare, achieved a $600 million opening weekend according to an Activision Blizzard press release today. It has an exclusive marketing deal with Sony plus PlayStation exclusive content, which means the console will benefit greatly from this rejuvenation of Call of Duty annual sales.

Death Stranding is the major console exclusive during this holiday quarter, releasing on November 8th. It’s produced by Kojima Productions, led by all-time-great director Hideo Kojima, and I’m upbeat on its sales potential despite being a new intellectual property.

The downside is that 2018 saw major releases in the God of War reboot and the aforementioned Marvel’s Spider-Man, which makes for a difficult comparison. Combine that with the delay of Naughty Dog’s The Last of Us Part II into the first quarter of 2020 fiscal and we can understand why Sony adjusted its estimates downward.

Based on the above, I’m intrigued to see how software sales compare during the back half of the year, since I already anticipate lower dollar sales from PlayStation 4 hardware due to market saturation and discounted pricing.

Sony boasts one of the most impressive achievements in its company history with PlayStation 4 joining its PlayStation 2 brethren as one of the best-selling pieces of hardware ever, though the company will face short-term pressure as it gears up production and marketing for PlayStation 5 its corresponding software lineup.

Hope you all have a good one!

Sources: Activision Blizzard, Kojima Productions, Nintendo, Sony Corp., Wired.

-Dom

Earnings Calendar Oct & Nov 2019: Gaming, Media & Tech Companies

Back again. Earlier in the week it was sales, now it’s all about earnings.

‘Tis the season. For company reporting and executive conference calls, of course. Lots of numbers and some jargon on top. Plus, reactions from yours truly as I plan to write in depth about select events.

To help us navigate this latest quarterly earnings season, I’ve gathered up notable reporting dates for companies across the gaming, technology and media sectors.

Above in the image, below in Google Docs. Then some quick hitters on three notable names I’m watching in the next few weeks. Let’s a go.

Working Casual Earnings Calendar Oct & Nov 2019: Gaming, Media & Tech Companies

Microsoft (MSFT): Wednesday, October 23rd

Last month, Microsoft announced a handful of updates to its investor reporting standards. The most noteworthy of these is the introduction of “year-over year percentage revenue growth for Xbox content and services” as opposed to the inclusion of dollar sales from its gaming segment within its earnings press release and presentation slides. As noted in the excerpt above, content and services includes Xbox Live, software sales and third-party game royalties.

The unfortunate part is the new metric is merely growth as opposed to a raw amount, the latter of which is always preferable. Upside is that Microsoft will still report overall gaming revenue, it’s just that it will only be included in its quarterly or annual filings with U.S. regulators. Which are usually published a day or so after its earnings press release. So we won’t know the dollar amount from content and services, though we’ll still see the revenue figure. After a bit of patience.

Capcom (9697): Tuesday, October 29th

Capcom’s rejuvenation continues with its recent announcement that Monster Hunter World: Iceborne, the latest expansion for its best-selling game ever, moved an impressive 2.5 million copies within a week of its release back in September. In its integrated report for 2019, the Japanese developer and publisher also expressed an intent to utilize dormant IP and remakes after successful launches of titles in the Resident Evil and Devil May Cry franchises.

While the company has been.. hm, beasting over the past couple years, the main notable game in its upcoming slate is the spin-off multiplayer title within the Resident Evil universe dubbed Project Resistance. How will its forecasting look this quarter? Does it indicate a new mainline entry in one of its properties, maybe at the launch of next generation? My guess is Capcom will look towards the fighting game genre next, a segment in which it used to excel, since both Street Fighter V and Marvel vs. Capcom: Infinite were underwhelming at best.

Activision Blizzard (ATVI): Thursday, November 7th

Blizzard, one half of major domestic publisher Activision Blizzard, has been in the news lately for all the wrong reasons after suspending a professional Hearthstone player for speaking out in support of Hong Kong protesters then fumbling through the aftermath. It’s been a public relations nightmare for the developer of Warcraft, Diablo and Overwatch.

Its annual Blizzcon event will be over by the time the earnings call happens, though I’ve got a feeling it won’t be the last of this latest news cycle and I expect at least a couple analysts to ask executives to address this situation. Especially with rumors swirling that Diablo 4 and a sequel to 2016’s hero shooter Overwatch could be revealed at the event.

On the Activision side, the obvious subject of interest will be any indication of Call of Duty: Modern Warfare forecasting with its release happening later this week. I anticipate the game will be the best-selling console title of 2019, plus has a chance to set a record for launch dollar sales in the franchise (which would be anything above a $550 million opening weekend). Expect management to be extremely bullish on its prospects, because anything else would be newsworthy on its own.

Thanks friends for stopping by, though check back often in the coming weeks. I look forward to writing more about individual companies during this season plus chatting about it on Twitter like usual!

Sources: Company Investor Websites, Kotaku, GameSpot.

-Dom

Earnings Calendar Jul & Aug 2019: Gaming, Media & Tech Companies

No more funny business!

Alright, maybe just a little. Because it’s that time again. The most fun you’ll have all season. It’s way too hot (at least here in the States) to go outside, so spend the next couple weeks as one should right now: hanging in the air conditioning reading through financial reports and analyzing fancy numbers, of course.

If that’s your type of thing, you’re in the right spot. I’ve compiled the closest thing to a full list anywhere in the world for upcoming earnings dates from major global gaming, tech and media companies. I know you’re busy. Hope this will keep things organized.

You’ll notice something a bit different this time. Select rows are listed as not reporting this quarter. This is the result of trying to document as many names as possible, though not every international company reports quarterly. Some only share numbers semi-annually. I’ll keep them on the list for quick reference or access to the investor site, though we’ll have to be even more patient to see how those in particular are doing.

Full calendar image is above, then there’s the Google Doc link below that has each of them listed individually. A number don’t have set dates yet, though we have a general sense based on trends. Scroll further to see which three companies I’m monitoring closely this quarter. Truly appreciate your visit, please check back for updates!

Working Casual Earnings Calendar Jul & Aug 2019: Gaming, Media & Tech Companies

Sony Corp (SNE): Tuesday, July 30th

The Japanese gaming and consumer conglomerate has been bolstered lately by excellent results within its gaming division. While software and services are growth engines this late in the current cycle, I’m actually intrigued by how hardware is holding up since the PlayStation brand is maintaining better momentum than anticipated. Namely, will this be the quarter where Sony’s successful PlayStation 4 console eclipses the 100 million units shipped? If so, it would be only the sixth piece of hardware to ever cross this coveted threshold. two of them being earlier Sony consoles with the original PlayStation at over 102 million and PlayStation 3 achieved a whopping 155 million. Based on the lifetime sales of just under 97 million and the company’s trend of moving approximately 3 million or more PS4 in the past couple quarters ending June, there’s certainly a chance it reaches this milestone. Though I’d bet it happens later in the summer.

Capcom Co Ltd (9697): Thursday, August 1st

The resurgence of Osaka-based Capcom is one of the most uplifting stories of the current generation. Last year’s.. hm, yes I’m doing it. Last year’s monstrous hit Monster Hunter: World continues its momentum as it amazingly hit 13 million units sold just this past week, widening its margin as the company’s best-selling game ever. January’s Resident Evil 2 Remake is the 5th best-selling title of the 1st half of 2019 in the States according to NPD, and has eclipsed 4 million units at last count. March’s Devil May Cry V showed well at launch and is estimated to be nearing the 3 million unit threshold. Continued sales of these should make for solid results in the quarter ending June, though I’m actually more interested in where executives go with guidance. Especially in light of Monster Hunter World’s Iceborne expansion due out September. And where’s the company going with its fighting game approach? Will it factor in a brand new Resident Evil entry, perhaps for early next calendar year? We likely won’t know for sure until later, though any change in guidance can give us enough information to at least speculate!

Super League Gaming (SLGG): Mid August

Yup. This is a new one. eSports community and content platform Super League Gaming is the latest in gaming initial public offerings (IPOs), raising proceeds of nearly $23 million back in Q1. It’s an intriguing, modern business model in a growing industry where the firm operates more as a community platform for amateur players rather than solely competitive games for pros. Effectively highlighting content creators on social media, hosting events and offering a technology platform to organize all of it. Based on its first quarterly filing as a public company back in April, revenues nearly doubled and it’s established multiple partnerships with companies like Best Buy, Logitech and the aforementioned Capcom. With annual revenue estimated at $1 million, I’m curious to see how it continues to monetize this type of community approach especially since it’s aligned with major titles like League of Legends and Minecraft.

Sources: Company Investor Relations Websites & Press Releases, Sony PR, Capcom PR, NPD Group, Super League Gaming, Games Press.

-Dom

Sony Reveals Record Gaming Sales But No New PlayStation Release Just Yet

If we learned anything from Sony Corp $SNE earlier today, it’s that it isn’t playing around when it comes to games.

The Japanese megacorp released its 2018 results, where it revealed solid overall stats and especially positive numbers within its Gaming & Network Services (G&NS) division. This includes PlayStation, downloads and related services i.e. PlayStation Plus.

Its PlayStation 4 console, released way back in 2013, has eclipsed 96.8 million in lifetime units shipped. It’s the 6th best-selling gaming platform ever, approaching the 101.63 million of the mighty popular Nintendo Wii. (Yes, the one that your grandparents even bought. To play virtual bowling.)

Quick rundown is that Sony’s total sales moved up slightly to $78 billion, while operating profit boosted 22% to over $8 billion. Sales for the final quarter came in above analyst forecast, while full-year outpaced Sony’s internal guidance.

Chart above focuses in on the gaming division, which generated a whopping $20.8 billion in sales and an increase of 75% in operating profit. This shows growth over time, using quarterly metrics, to put this record result in context.

A decline in hardware sales for the aging PlayStation 4 was offset by growth in software and subscription revenue, as PlayStation Plus members rose 6% to 36.4 million. You’ll see above that this is the best result for the “Network Services” part of this business unit, and that software is still as healthy as it’s ever been. Popular catalog titles like God of War and Marvel’s Spider-Man seem to be maintaining momentum, however Sony did not share updated individual stats on its major games.

On the hardware side, PS4 shipments were lower than the prior year however this was expected as we come up on next generation. The 17.8 million units came in above the firm’s estimate, and is helping to drive toward the lifetime 100 million threshold as mentioned before.

However, there’s an important flip side to the stellar numbers that causes me to have some hesitation for its short term prospects. (Despite remaining way optimistic longer term.)

While Sony tends to provide conservative forward-looking guidance, it’s especially the case this time. Even more so than expected, given how late in the console cycle its PlayStation business is plus unevenness in other units such as Xperia mobile phones. Operating income is expected to decline to $7.3 billion, on a 10% reduction in gaming profits. According to Bloomberg, this is below analyst consensus.

Even further, as reported by the Wall Street Journal, executives stated definitively that there will be no new PlayStation hardware released until at least a year from now. Effectively, it will go the entire next fiscal year without a new console. While it’s still projecting modest PlayStation 4 units, 16 million to be exact, this revelation along with weaker-than-expected financial forecasts and uncertainty with its games software lineup, is why I’m tepid on Sony’s short-term prospects.

It does have major games in the pipeline, including The Last of Us: Part II from Naughty Dog, Death Stranding from Hideo Kojima’s new studio and Ghost of Tsushima from Sucker Punch. Though we don’t know when any of these will be out. There’s even the possibility that one or more will be saved for next generation’s launch later in 2020. Combine this with no new console, it’s clear why Sony is being conservative.

Ultimately, while I applaud the absolutely stellar results, I’m somewhat hesitant shorter term. I don’t believe it can meet its gaming unit forecast without at least two of the three aforementioned titles, as the boost from the usual multi-platform games will exist regardless.

Thus, what will be the driving factor without new hardware or multiple flagship games? Which of its major titles will release in the next year? Upside is that we’ll know soon, one way or another.

Sources: Sony Investor Relations. Wall Street Journal. Bloomberg.

-Dom

Nintendo Reports Best Results in Nearly a Decade Despite Missing Switch Target

Shuntaro Furukawa, Nintendo’s President.

Japanese gaming giant Nintendo shared its latest annual results today. I didn’t want to jump (like Mario, get it?) to conclusions, so I’ve read through carefully. The outcome? I’m equal parts impressed and cautious, the former due to the results themselves and the latter due to where executives see the company next year.

The good news is that the games manufacturer hasn’t experienced this sort of financial bump in years. In particular, software is performing incredibly well even compared to its estimates. It broke through the forecast of 110 million to an impressive 118.55 million copies sold during this latest year, on the strength of titles like Mario Kart 8 Deluxe and Super Smash Bros. Ultimate.

If the teams working at or with Nintendo are experts at one thing, it’s making compelling games specifically for its platforms. While Switch hardware numbers often grab headlines, it’s the quality of games that support its business. A console can’t succeed without the support of a software lineup.

Diving into some numbers for a moment, I’ve built the above chart to illustrate results over time and expand on my headline. This is net revenue, which is overall sales achieved by Nintendo. Current revenue figure is around $10.8 billion when converted to dollars, though the chart is in local currency.

Similarly the above shows operating profit, which takes into account certain expenses. Another quality result, driven by the higher revenue offsetting slightly increased sales including those from selling and marketing its products.

Downside though is that its current generation Switch console saw sales of 16.95 million units, which means it fell short of the 17 million Nintendo expected to sell during this time frame. In fact, this target was initially upwards of 20 million around this time last year. Turns out that both of these figures were optimistic.

Which leads me back to my point on software sales, and why they are so key to Nintendo’s success. Many individual offerings are maintaining impressive momentum, especially those we’d call “evergreen” which means they are more timeless than others. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe remains the best-selling title on Switch, hitting 16.69 million units compared to just above 15 million last quarter. For a game that technically had its start on Nintendo’s prior generation Wii U device, this is excellent and conveys the power of a fine family-friendly multiplayer game.

Super Mario Odyssey and Super Smash Bros. Ultimate round out the Top 3, with 14.44 million and 13.81 million copies to date respectively. While I expected stellar results from Odyssey, it’s Smash that is the real winner here, fighting its way towards the top of the list.

So. If it’s doing so well financially, and selling software, why might I be cautious?

Well, because of where Nintendo itself expects to go. It’s just as much about guidance as it is results. Guidance which I consider to be conservative, and even timid considering its upcoming prospects.


First, the firm anticipates 18 million Switch units and 125 million software units in the year ending March 2020, which would be up a modest 6% and 5% respectively. On the financial side, execs think both sales and profit will increase 4%. These are.. lackluster, though not entirely unexpected given this past year’s result and considering the new leadership of President Shuntaro Furukawa.

Given the rumors of new Switch models as early as this year, plus key software titles in Super Mario Maker 2 (announced for a late June release), Pokemon Sword & Shield and a new Animal Crossing, I was hoping for more ambitious targets from Nintendo. This is also supported by recent reports of expansion into the world’s largest gaming market of China, which to call a massive opportunity is an understatement.

Still. Maybe some of these drivers are further out that I thought. During the call associated with this earnings release, President Furukawa revealed they won’t be talking new hardware or revisions during June’s major Electronic Entertainment Expo (E3) event. We’ll have to wait further to see if the manufacturer will try to bolster sales using either a “mini” iteration or a more powerful version of the Switch. There’s also no timeline for the China expansion, so that could push further into future fiscal periods.

One additional point before we wrap up:

Nintendo’s foray into mobile continues, with the beta for the previously-announced Mario Kart Tour beginning this summer. This past year, mobile titles like Dragalia Lost drove growth of 17% within its mobile segment to just over $400 million in sales. It’s certainly a small portion of the overall business, however it’s the one segment that many cite, including myself, as having the best upside.

All told, Nintendo’s solid financial performance is undeniable. However, I see a disconnect between what I expect for its future prospects and what the company itself thinks. Similar to fans of upcoming games like Bayonetta 3 and Metroid Prime 4, which are currently listed as “To Be Announced” in Nintendo’s pipeline, I’m left both wanting and quite curious about what the future holds.

Sources: Nintendo Investor Relations. Bloomberg. Wall Street Journal. Fortune.

-Dom

Microsoft’s Annual Gaming Revenue Exceeds $11.6 Billion For The First Time

Phil Spencer, Head of Microsoft’s Xbox division.

For Microsoft $MSFT, having one’s head in the Cloud is turning out to be a smart decision.

According to the company’s fiscal 2019 3rd quarter earnings results today, it reported revenue of $30.6 billion. An increase of 14% compared to the prior year, and a figure that comes in above analyst expectations. Operating profit jumped 25% to over $10 billion. Growth is mainly attributed to the firm’s cloud offerings and productivity suite.

Going further, how did the Xbox gaming division fare? The answer is that it broke yet another record.

As you’ll see in the above chart, Xbox gaming revenue exceeded $11.6 billion for the trailing 12-month period for the first time since the company began reporting this specific metric. This breaks the record of $11.5 billion set last quarter. In fact, revenue has been steadily growing for the Xbox business during the later part of the Xbox One generation of hardware, which began in late 2013.

Quarterly gaming sales eclipsed $2.36 billion, up 5% since this time last year. Attributed to 12% increase in Xbox software and services, which offset a drop in hardware likely due to both market saturation and discounting. Microsoft notes that software and service results were boosted by “third party monetization” and “subscriptions growth.”

Edit: While profit metrics aren’t shared for gaming itself, there is a small comment giving a bit of insight:

“Gross margin percentage increased due to sales mix shifts to higher margin businesses in Gaming and Windows.”

Translation: Gaming is shifting to higher margin businesses, which benefits profitability. Unfortunately, I don’t see much else on the profit side.

Allow me to translate that last part for you:

Xbox Live monthly active users totaled 63 million compared to 59 million last year. The more people subscribe, the more they become embedded in the ecosystem and purchase content on the digital store. Each online buy provides a revenue slice for Xbox.

Then, like so many parties involved, it’s making a boatload of cash as its players spend in online battle royale games Fortnite and now Apex Legends. This phenomenon is not only keeping players around, but more importantly attracting new ones. Which is especially key as the current hardware generation ages.

So. How is Xbox achieving milestones when it’s not selling Xboxes?

It’s the renewed focus on expanding player services and reinforcing customer goodwill. Xbox has fully established its Game Pass offering, where players pay a monthly fee for access to a library of digital titles. It’s attracting major publishers to participate, grabbing games like Capcom’s Monster Hunter: World and Square Enix’s Shadow of the Tomb Raider. While we don’t have statistics on how Game Pass did this quarter, there’s no doubt it’s bolstering the service side.

Another attractive offering is backwards compatibility, where titles from prior generations work on the Xbox One family of devices. It’s certainly not a deal-breaker or a system-seller, though it’s still a distinguishing feature.

Oh. And did I mention battle royale?

Now don’t get me wrong. The hardware decline is a moderate concern. However it’s not uncommon that a downturn happens when a console is approaching its seventh year on market. And revenue growth is still happening despite lackluster hardware results. I fully anticipate middling hardware sales in the foreseeable future, until next generation. The good news is that both battle royale and these various services aren’t going anywhere.

With all-but-confirmed rumors that the firm is building its next generation of gaming hardware for a potential 2020 launch, Microsoft’s gaming division is using services as a way to generate business and maintain its user base for the time being. And based on today’s report, it’s working.


Source: Microsoft Investor Relations & Press Resources. Xbox.com. Windows Central.

-Dom

Earnings Calendar Apr & May 2019: Gaming, Media & Tech Companies

Updated: April 29, 2019

Back again!

Which means, let’s get down to.. business. Here’s the rundown of notable dates for gaming, technology and media results this quarter. Many fiscal periods end in March, so we’ll see a bevy of annual results during the next couple months. Which obviously means extra fun, all around.

See the above calendar image or below for a Google Doc which offers quick access to each investor site.

After that, I’ve highlighted three companies that I’ll be watching closely. What about you? Let me know here or on Twitter. Thanks for swinging by!

Working Casual Earnings Calendar Apr & May 2019: Gaming, Media & Tech Companies

Nintendo Co., Ltd (NTDOY): Thursday, April 25th.

It’s true that Nintendo makes this list virtually every quarter, though it’s especially noteworthy as its Switch hybrid console moves into its third year on market. It’s the end of the Japanese company’s 2019 fiscal year, one in which it previously predicted sales of 20 million Switch units. However, it recently backtracked to say this goal would not be reached. I was bullish on the hardware in recent posts, and still am even if it misses this lofty target, namely because of the rumor that two new models may be out soon. Not to mention its stellar software output. Nintendo has undoubtedly the most prolific short-term lineup of the “big three” manufacturers, with Super Mario Maker 2, Fire Emblem: Three Houses, Luigi’s Mansion 3, a new mainline Animal Crossing plus, most importantly, its flagship Pokemon Sword & Shield due in Q4. In fact, regardless of hardware, I expect software numbers to be above its guidance of 110 million copies from its last report.

Take-Two Interactive Software Inc (TTWO): Monday, May 13th.

Red Dead Redemption 2 from Take-Two Interactive’s Rockstar Games had an amazing launch last October and was the best-selling game last year in the States, wrangling a whopping 23 million copies moved globally to date per last quarter’s results. However, there are questions about how much momentum its Red Dead Online mode can sustain amidst heavy saturation in the online multiplayer space. The good news? One of its main competitors is Grand Theft Auto Online, also owned and published by Take-Two. Separate of Rockstar, I’m anticipating we could see increased guidance from the publisher now that Gearbox Software has announced Borderlands 3 for a September release. A new game in the Borderlands franchise combined with 2K Games’ steady-selling NBA 2K this fall is why I’m predicting the firm could not just boost its forecast going forward, but also then achieve it.

Ubisoft Entertainment (UBI): Wednesday, May 15th.

This will be the French gaming software maker’s annual earnings and the first report after the release of Tom Clancy’s The Division 2, the successor to 2016’s record-breaking Tom Clancy’s The Division. Early indicators are showing strength, though it will be difficult to eclipse the massive $330 million opening week of the original. We also should hear Ubisoft reiterate its plan for 3 to 4 “AAA” titles through March 2020. Especially important since there’s no Assassin’s Creed game in 2019. (Fans can rest easy knowing that it will return in 2020, in what’s likely going to be a Viking setting.) Many expect the lineup to include the previously announced pirate game Skull & Bones, a third Watch Dogs entry plus potentially a Tom Clancy’s Splinter Cell title. I’m not holding my breath on the last one. I’m leaning towards a sequel to 2017’s more action-heavy Tom Clancy’s Ghost Recon Wildlands. Even though the publisher will likely save full reveals for the Electronic Entertainment Expo (E3) gaming conference upcoming in June, any juicy tidbit or guidance adjustment would give a better indication of how its pipeline is.. rounding out.

As always, I appreciate you hanging out for discussion on the busy earnings season for companies in these sectors. Check back soon for updates to those that haven’t yet announced firm dates!

-Dom

Sources: Company Investor Relations Websites/Press Releases, NPD Group, Internet Game Database (IGDB), Nintendo Life, Wall Street Journal, Business Insider, Kotaku.

Earnings Calendar Jan & Feb 2019: Gaming, Tech & Media Companies

Updated: 1/29/2019

It’s a new year, which means another earnings season is underway!

Do you like numbers? And charts ? And corporate buzzwords like “tailwinds” or “compound growth?” Then you’ll dig the next few weeks as we’ll hear reports from major companies around the globe with updates on how each of them are doing.

(And if you don’t, you probably wouldn’t be here amirite?)

With a new earnings season comes my usual post, featuring essentially a calendar of events that no one visiting here wants to miss. Above is a snapshot, while below gives you access to a Google Doc for easy navigation to each investor site.


Working Casual Earnings Calendar Jan & Feb 2019: Gaming, Media & Tech Companies

Notable companies on my radar this quarter are:

There’s been a lot of chatter lately about Nintendo $NTDOY and whether it can hit its lofty hardware target of 20 million Switch units sold during its fiscal year ending in March. I’m on the record as being optimistic it will hit this goal, especially after December’s NPD sales report showing it was the best-selling console in the States during 2018. However I’m actually more interested in its software figures after hearing how well Super Smash Bros. Ultimate is tracking in particular after its December release.

In my recent piece about Capcom’s Resident Evil 2 Remake, I explained why I’m upbeat on the Japanese publisher’s latest title. Today the company revealed it’s shipped 3 million copies of this remake in its first week on sale, eclipsing the launch of Resident Evil 7 in 2017 which moved around 2.5 million. Between this resurgence and the ongoing support of Monster Hunter: World, I anticipate strong results when the firm reports on Monday, February 4th.

Major U.S. publisher Electronic Arts $EA has been in the news for all the wrong reasons lately. Word of another Star Wars game being cancelled broke recently, its upcoming blockbuster game from BioWare called Anthem had a rocky demo this past weekend plus now the company has caved to pressures in Belgium to stop offering “loot box” transactions there for its FIFA franchise after local regulators deemed them gambling. The key here won’t be its actual results on February 5th, but instead its future guidance and overall tone when answering analyst questions. Especially with Anthem releasing next month.

What companies are you interested in hearing from this time around? Did I miss any that you want me to cover? Feel free to leave a message here or on Twitter, I’d be happy to chat. Thanks for stopping by.

-Dom

Sources: Company Investor Relations Websites/Press Releases, NPD Group, VentureBeat, Erica Griffin on YouTube, Kotaku, GamesIndustry.Biz, BioWare.